JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Benjamin Graham put it best: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine". Unfortunately, that maxim has gone spectacularly against software giant Adobe ( ADBE ) in recent times, as concerns surrounding artificial intelligence and slowing growth have led the market to brutally reappraise its valuation....
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Benjamin Graham put it best: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine". Unfortunately, that maxim has gone spectacularly against software giant Adobe ( ADBE ) in recent times, as concerns surrounding artificial intelligence and slowing growth have led the market to brutally reappraise its valuation. The share price chart does not make for pleasant viewing. Despite doing its bit on the "weighing" part - Adobe's earnings are growing - shares have fallen over 50% these past two years, a meaningfully worse performance than funds that track the software space, not to mention broader market indices. Trading for over 45 times prior-year GAAP net income two years ago, Adobe's shares now change hands for less than 16 times trailing earnings. I'll concede that it may not be the safest way to play software's AI-driven sell-off, but I do think its valuation more than makes up for that. For readers able to ride out quarterly volatility, buying Adobe at these levels could pay off handsomely down the line. I rate shares "Strong Buy". Data by YCharts AI Concerns Adobe booked almost $24 billion in revenue last year, $17.7 billion of which came from its Digital Media segment. This houses iconic content creation apps like Photoshop and Illustrator, as well as PDF creator/viewer/editor Acrobat. Digital Media is a profit machine. Despite accounting for roughly 75% of Adobe's revenue last year, it kicked in just 33% of the company's cost of revenue - numbers that map to a whopping 95% gross margin. This is powering a phenomenal firm-wide gross margin of nearly 90%. Plus, as incremental sales don't attract much by way of extra costs, this figure has been growing over time. Data by YCharts Given its incredible levels of profitability, Adobe's valuation is highly sensitive to the market's view of its growth prospects. That being the case, investors seem to have taken a very dim view of things...
DWalker44/E+ via Getty Images The Environmental Protection Agency this week rescinded regulations limiting mercury and other hazardous toxins from power plants, citing the need to boost baseload energy at a time when demand for power is soaring. The move is President Trump's latest effort to lift the U.S. coal sector , including earmarking more than $500M to help upgrade existing plants , using em...
DWalker44/E+ via Getty Images The Environmental Protection Agency this week rescinded regulations limiting mercury and other hazardous toxins from power plants, citing the need to boost baseload energy at a time when demand for power is soaring. The move is President Trump's latest effort to lift the U.S. coal sector , including earmarking more than $500M to help upgrade existing plants , using emergency powers to keep older facilities from retiring, and allowing coal plants to access the Energy Department's loan program, which has hundreds of billions of dollars in financing authority. In 2024, the Biden administration finalized updates to the Mercury and Air Toxic Standards for coal-fired plants that would have cut allowable mercury pollution from coal plants by 70% and imposed a 67% reduction in emissions of nickel, arsenic, lead, and other toxic metals. On Friday, the EPA announced it has repealed Biden's updated MATs, reverting compliance back to 2012 standards, which it said would save Americans $670M through 2037 in the form of lower costs for transportation, heating, utilities, farming, and manufacturing. Environmental groups have said that weakening standards for mercury and other air toxics will lead to higher long-term health-related costs. Coal- and oil-fired power plants also will no longer have to comply with a 2027 deadline set under Biden to install technology on smokestacks for continuous monitoring of soot, and a stricter mercury emissions standard for certain coal plants, finalized in 2024, also is being replaced with the original 2012 standard. "The Biden-Harris administration's anti-coal regulations sought to regulate out of existence this vital sector of our energy economy," EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said. "The Trump EPA knows that we can grow the economy, enhance baseload power, and protect human health and the environment all at the same time." ETFs: ( XLU ), ( ICLN ), ( QCLN ), ( PBW ), ( PBD ), ( ACES ), ( CNRG ), ( ERTH ), ( SMOG ) More...
Japan's $36 Billion Bet On US Energy Dominance Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com, Japan has committed $36 billion as the first tranche of its $550-billion U.S. investment pledge under last year’s trade deal, including plans to build a 9.2 GW natural gas power plant in Ohio. The remaining funds will support a synthetic diamond factory and the Texas GulfLink deepwater oil export terminal. The ...
Japan's $36 Billion Bet On US Energy Dominance Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com, Japan has committed $36 billion as the first tranche of its $550-billion U.S. investment pledge under last year’s trade deal, including plans to build a 9.2 GW natural gas power plant in Ohio. The remaining funds will support a synthetic diamond factory and the Texas GulfLink deepwater oil export terminal. The massive gas plant reflects surging U.S. electricity demand — particularly from AI-driven data centers — with natural gas emerging as the preferred source of reliable baseload power. Japan has made the first commitments under a $550-billion investment program that made part of its trade deal with President Trump. Those first commitments are worth $36 billion and include what Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has called “the largest natural gas generation facility in history.” The U.S. and Japan sealed a trade deal last summer, featuring a reduction in proposed tariffs—from 25% to 15%—on Japanese imports and a $550-billion Japanese investment pledge for the U.S. economy. Japan also pledged under the deal to expand market access for American goods, including cars, agricultural products, and energy. Most of the money from that first investment tranche would be used to build the largest natural gas power plant, with a capacity of 9.2 GW. “We will strengthen grid reliability, expand baseload power, and support American manufacturing with affordable energy,” Secretary Lutnick said in a statement after the deal. The plant will be built in Ohio. The facility will be operated by a subsidiary of Japan’s SoftBank, SB Energy. The rest of the money would be split between a synthetic diamond factory and a deepwater oil port in the Gulf. “This project is expected to generate $20–30 billion annually in U.S. crude exports, secure export capacity for our refineries, and reinforce America’s position as the world’s leading energy supplier,” per Lutnick. The deepwater oil project was greenlit by...
alexsl/iStock via Getty Images “Free cash flow” has become a fundamental valuation term not solely confined to strict buyside and sellside equity analysts. Indeed, the term has gone mainstream, largely the result of extremely high capex plans among the AI hyperscalers. The likes of Amazon ( AMZN ), Alphabet ( GOOGL ), Meta Platforms ( META ), Microsoft ( MSFT ), and Oracle ( ORCL ) are pouring ope...
alexsl/iStock via Getty Images “Free cash flow” has become a fundamental valuation term not solely confined to strict buyside and sellside equity analysts. Indeed, the term has gone mainstream, largely the result of extremely high capex plans among the AI hyperscalers. The likes of Amazon ( AMZN ), Alphabet ( GOOGL ), Meta Platforms ( META ), Microsoft ( MSFT ), and Oracle ( ORCL ) are pouring operating cash flow into AI capex projects. The result is, in some cases, negative free cash flow. Now, heavy investment does not, on its own, reduce equity valuation, but when there’s high ROI uncertainty (as there is now with the AI megatrend), low FCF firms may garner reduced fundamental equity valuations. Hence, some investors are flocking to high free cash flow firms, and there are ETFs for that. Among the best-performing free cash flow factor funds is the VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF ( VFLO ). I was bullish on the product back in late 2023 —before heavy volume began entering the ETF. Shares are up a solid 53% over the past 26 months, outperforming the S&P 500 by three percentage points. VFLO’s performance also trounces the total return of the Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF ( COWZ ). Today, I reiterate a buy rating, given a reasonable valuation, proven track record, and solid technicals. VFLO Keeping Pace With SPY, Outperforming COWZ StockCharts.com Stretched Tech FCF Multiples Draw Angst Goldman Sachs According to the issuer , VFLO aims to provide large-cap value exposure with free cash flow yield and favorable growth prospects. Thus, it takes the common approach of identifying companies with strong trends in free cash flow and adds a growth filter. The issuer asserts that free cash flow is a crucial metric for assessing a company's value, though some of the most lucrative early-stage investments are in companies with low or even negative free cash flow. For background, free cash flow is operating cash flow minus capital expenditures; it can be used to invest in growing ...
Realty Income (NYSE: O) owns 15,500 single-tenant net lease properties. Its portfolio spans across the United States and Europe. Although it is focused on retail assets, it also owns industrial properties and other properties (like casinos). It is a gigantic business, but there's something interesting happening under the surface. Given Realty Income's vast size, it takes massive property acquisiti...
Realty Income (NYSE: O) owns 15,500 single-tenant net lease properties. Its portfolio spans across the United States and Europe. Although it is focused on retail assets, it also owns industrial properties and other properties (like casinos). It is a gigantic business, but there's something interesting happening under the surface. Given Realty Income's vast size, it takes massive property acquisitions to move the needle on the top and bottom lines. Smaller net lease REITs have a growth advantage here. As an example, Realty Income's dividend has increased at a roughly 4.2% annualized rate over the past 30 years. However, in 2025, the monthly dividend started the year at $0.264 per share per month and ended at $0.27. That's a tiny increase of just 2.3%. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images The sharp market turnover in the past few months has shaped an undeniable trend: investors are pushing back against all manner of internet and software stocks. For the most part, it's being driven by fear of AI encroaching on core business software, but the pushback against Roblox ( RBLX ) relates to a far more near-term concern: growing backlash agains...
JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images The sharp market turnover in the past few months has shaped an undeniable trend: investors are pushing back against all manner of internet and software stocks. For the most part, it's being driven by fear of AI encroaching on core business software, but the pushback against Roblox ( RBLX ) relates to a far more near-term concern: growing backlash against the perception of child safety risk on the platform and the risk of near-term legislation. These fears have brought Roblox stock down ~50% relative to peaks above $130 notched midway through 2025, erasing all of the stock's gains over the past year. We have to ask ourselves now: while risk certainly exists, to what extent do strong results justify holding onto this name? Data by YCharts I last wrote a buy rating on Roblox in November, when the stock was still hovering above $100. It goes without saying that my buy call was ill-timed, and I certainly didn't anticipate the speed of potential regulatory actions against Roblox. That said, we think the company has responded adequately in rolling out age checks via facial recognition, the first online platform to actually do so. On top of this, the company has delivered excellent recent results that aren't commensurate with the stock's rapidly declining valuation. With all this in mind, I'm reiterating my buy rating on the stock. Since the major change in Roblox is valuation, let's first start with a discussion of the stock's latest multiples against its freshly printed outlook for FY26. At current share prices near $62, Roblox trades at a market cap of $43.08 billion. After we net off the $5.55 billion of cash and $993.1 million of debt on Roblox's latest balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $38.52 billion. For FY26, the company has guided to $8.28-$8.55 billion in bookings (22-26% y/y). As a reminder, bookings is the company's primary top-line metric, as they capture when customers actually pay for in-ga...
According to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing dated February 17, 2026, Metavasi Capital LP disclosed a new stake in TTM Technologies (NASDAQ:TTMI) . The fund acquired 171,202 shares during the fourth quarter, with an estimated transaction value of $11.81 million based on quarterly average pricing. The quarter-end value of the position also stood at $11.81 million, reflecting share...
According to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing dated February 17, 2026, Metavasi Capital LP disclosed a new stake in TTM Technologies (NASDAQ:TTMI) . The fund acquired 171,202 shares during the fourth quarter, with an estimated transaction value of $11.81 million based on quarterly average pricing. The quarter-end value of the position also stood at $11.81 million, reflecting share purchases and market price movement. This was a new position in TTMI for Metavasi Capital LP, representing 4.81% of its $245.42 million 13F U.S. equity assets as of December 31, 2025. Top holdings after the filing: Continue reading
Yik Wai Chee doesn’t think of himself as a believer. The 33-year-old senior executive at a Malaysia-based AI company is the kind of person who deals in data and decision-making frameworks, not destiny. Yet for years, he has consulted bazi, the ancient Chinese system of elemental forecasting, as a kind of strategic gut check on his life. “For me, it is just a long-term ‘luck check’ to see if there ...
Yik Wai Chee doesn’t think of himself as a believer. The 33-year-old senior executive at a Malaysia-based AI company is the kind of person who deals in data and decision-making frameworks, not destiny. Yet for years, he has consulted bazi, the ancient Chinese system of elemental forecasting, as a kind of strategic gut check on his life. “For me, it is just a long-term ‘luck check’ to see if there are general strategies I can adapt to get through some life challenges,” he said. “If it doesn’t...
Deeper regulatory ties and a shared push for new growth sectors are expected to give fresh impetus to cross-border investment flows between China and the Middle East, according to industry players and a United Arab Emirates (UAE) regulator. Hong Kong would benefit from the increased China-Middle East cooperation as the city develops into “a key hub for Middle Eastern capital to deploy in Asia and ...
Deeper regulatory ties and a shared push for new growth sectors are expected to give fresh impetus to cross-border investment flows between China and the Middle East, according to industry players and a United Arab Emirates (UAE) regulator. Hong Kong would benefit from the increased China-Middle East cooperation as the city develops into “a key hub for Middle Eastern capital to deploy in Asia and an important gateway for Chinese capital to go global to the Middle East,” said Linda Cai, inbound...