herstockart/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images In a very volatile stock market in 2026, the biggest asset investors can have is to constantly assess share price movements and be willing to change our minds as fundamental stories shift and valuations decline. The tech sector, in particular, has been home to spectacular corrections over the past few months as investors begin to digest AI as a net ri...
herstockart/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images In a very volatile stock market in 2026, the biggest asset investors can have is to constantly assess share price movements and be willing to change our minds as fundamental stories shift and valuations decline. The tech sector, in particular, has been home to spectacular corrections over the past few months as investors begin to digest AI as a net risk, rather than a growth tailwind. Etsy ( ETSY ), the online crafts marketplace, is one company where I'm shifting to a more positive outlook. The company just reported strong Q4 results after a long string of disappointments, reverting back to GMS (gross merchandise sales) growth in the critical holiday quarter. Data by YCharts I last wrote a sell article on Etsy in October when the stock was trading just shy of $70, criticizing the company's deep sales declines, adjusted EBITDA margin erosion, and valuation multiples that weren't low enough to compensate for operating risks. As I previously mentioned, however, the worst thing to be in this market is stubborn. Etsy at $48 is a different investment opportunity than at $70, especially on the back of the company's expectations for recovering GMS performance this year. Though I don't see enough clear catalysts yet that can spark an immediate large rebound for the company, I'm raising my viewpoint on the stock to neutral. Beyond the company's recovery in sales performance (which we'll dig into in the next section), there are several factors that investors should be aware of that are moving the tide in Etsy's favor. The first is that there is a clear indication from the company that it intends on focusing on its core platform health, rather than trying for "growth at all costs." Etsy is selling its fashion subsidiary, Depop, to eBay ( EBAY ) for $1.2 billion. While this sale removes a key source of GMS/revenue growth for Etsy at just the time that "recommerce" or used clothes retailing is gaining in popularity, and while the sal...
Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images By Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Regional Head of Research, Americas We were driven to this point through a series of significant builds in the balance sheet as the Fed battled the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and pandemic events through aggressive buying of bonds. Getting here was in a sense tolerably positive, as it involved the unleashing of an extensive comfo...
Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images By Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Regional Head of Research, Americas We were driven to this point through a series of significant builds in the balance sheet as the Fed battled the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and pandemic events through aggressive buying of bonds. Getting here was in a sense tolerably positive, as it involved the unleashing of an extensive comfort blanket over the system. It was a means to ease pain. Going back is not quite guaranteed pain, but would be managed as a damage limitation exercise. But let’s be constructive and at least examine the mechanics. First, on the theory that the unwinding of the balance sheet could impliedly mean a return to a pre-GFC-type balance sheet, let's go back in time and view how things were then. There are three dimensions to consider: the Fed’s balance sheet, how the funds rate was set, and crucially, system plumbing. Let’s talk balance sheet first. At the end of 2005, the Fed’s balance sheet was about 5.5% of GDP. Roll on 20 years, in and out of the GFC and pandemic, and it’s now 21% of GDP (quadruple). The driver was bond buying. Total bonds held by the Fed were around 5.5% of GDP 20 years ago. That now equates to 20% of GDP (almost quadruple). Bank reserves were purely regulatory in nature and a puny 0.1% of GDP 20 years ago. Today’s bank reserves are closer to 10% of GDP (100-fold). Let’s continue with how the funds rate is set. A key change element here is the 100-fold increase in bank reserves – that's the key delta the Fed has had to grapple with. Bank reserves and how the funds rate is set in a low bank reserves world So, what are bank reserves exactly? They are balances owned by the commercial banks, but sitting at the Federal Reserve. And why are they sitting at the Fed? Pre-GFC they were purely regulatory in nature. There was a tiering of rates, but system-wide banks held up to the equivalent of 2% of their deposits at the Fed, as a type of regulatory security balance. A...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Revisiting Edison I initiated coverage on Edison International ( EIX ) in July 2025, with a strong buy rating . My thesis at the time centered on the market mispricing the wildfire risk and ignoring a regulatory framework that was likely to drive industry-leading growth. My thesis has largely played out, with the stock returning a 41.83% total return, co...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Revisiting Edison I initiated coverage on Edison International ( EIX ) in July 2025, with a strong buy rating . My thesis at the time centered on the market mispricing the wildfire risk and ignoring a regulatory framework that was likely to drive industry-leading growth. My thesis has largely played out, with the stock returning a 41.83% total return, compared to a market return of 7.26%. With Edison reporting their earnings on February 18th, I felt it was time to revisit the company to determine if the thesis has fully played out, and it’s time to exit, or double down. Author’s previous analysis: "Edison International: This Overlooked Utility Is Wired For A Rebound" (July 2025) Edison's Stellar Earnings Edison International just reported a blowout quarter, growing earnings-per-share by 78% year-over-year. This represented a double beat for Edison. The $1.87 per share core EPS beat estimates by 27%, and on the top line, its $5.21 billion in quarterly revenue beat consensus by 19%. Q4 2025 Performance vs. Expectations Metric Q4 2025 Actual Consensus Surprise Q4 2024 (YoY) YoY % Growth Core EPS $1.87 $1.47 +27.38% $1.05 +78.1% Revenue $5.21 $4.38 Billion +19.02% $3.98 Billion +30.9% GAAP EPS $4.80 - - $0.88 +445.5% Click to enlarge The Impact of Non-Recurring Items in 2025 Significant one-time benefits and adjustments that are not indicative of the company’s performance contributed significantly to GAAP EPS numbers and will not repeat in 2026. The biggest contributor to last quarter’s EPS was the resolution of TKM and Woolsey wildfire settlements. The company requested $8.4 billion in cost recovery for money it had spent on claims, legal fees, and financing related to the fires. California regulators approved 43% of the claims in Q4 2025. The $3.6 billion payment was recorded in this quarter’s earnings, making up a significant portion of GAAP EPS. While this is recorded as income this quarter, in the big scheme of things it ...
NicoElNino/iStock via Getty Images There are only really two ways to build developer software today. You can ship the best point tool in one narrow workflow and integrate everything else around it. Alternatively, you can try to own the entire lifecycle and become the operating system for how software gets built. Seeking Alpha -- GitLab Stock Chart It’s clear that GitLab Inc. ( GTLB ) is trying to ...
NicoElNino/iStock via Getty Images There are only really two ways to build developer software today. You can ship the best point tool in one narrow workflow and integrate everything else around it. Alternatively, you can try to own the entire lifecycle and become the operating system for how software gets built. Seeking Alpha -- GitLab Stock Chart It’s clear that GitLab Inc. ( GTLB ) is trying to be the second, and I think it’s fair to say the market isn’t valuing the company as highly as it could, seeing as the stock is down nearly 60% over the last year. That surprises me, given how quickly it has scaled revenue over the last half-decade. We’re talking about a company that was pulling in around $150 million in revenue in FY2021 and is on track to make nearly $950 million in FY2026. At today’s price of ~$29/share, the company is priced like one that is becoming a durable-growth name in SaaS. The fundamentals are good: revenue is still growing north of 25%, margins are increasing, and free cash flow is positive. However, I think this isn’t a “pay any price” DevOps story, and the company is settling into a steady-state equilibrium where the upside depends on multiple expansion, not business acceleration. Consequently, I’m leaning slightly bullish, but that rests on how the business continues to execute. What GitLab Does The simplest way to describe what GitLab is doing is that it is trying to replace the DevOps toolchain with a single system, which is easier said than done. Most enterprises run a collection of tools to deliver their projects. This means they might have one vendor for source control, another one for Continuous Integration and Continuous Delivery/Deployment (CI/CD), separate security scanners and compliance overlays, and others. That’s a fairly complicated system that is easy to lose track of, and time is crucial in today’s development cycles. For GitLab, it’s a very straightforward sell to customers: you only need one consolidated platform to run ever...
Hong Kong authorities will spend about HK$6.8 billion (US$870 million) to buy back homes damaged in the deadly Tai Po fire from flat owners, offering HK$8,000 to HK$10,500 per square foot as part of a long-term resettlement plan involving HK$4 billion in public funds. Deputy financial secretary Michael Wong Wai-lun unveiled the plan on Saturday, ruling out on-site redevelopment of Wang Fuk Court, ...
Hong Kong authorities will spend about HK$6.8 billion (US$870 million) to buy back homes damaged in the deadly Tai Po fire from flat owners, offering HK$8,000 to HK$10,500 per square foot as part of a long-term resettlement plan involving HK$4 billion in public funds. Deputy financial secretary Michael Wong Wai-lun unveiled the plan on Saturday, ruling out on-site redevelopment of Wang Fuk Court, and saying authorities were inclined to demolish seven of the estate’s eight buildings and redevelop...
Despite the consumer sector's slump, the EATZ ETF offers broad fast food and fast casual restaurant exposure as revenues rise amid ongoing dining-out inflation.
Despite the consumer sector's slump, the EATZ ETF offers broad fast food and fast casual restaurant exposure as revenues rise amid ongoing dining-out inflation.
Sjo/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Air France-KLM ( AFRAF , AFLYY ) has reported its fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings. I covered Air France-KLM in March 2025 with a hold rating. In my view, the risk-reward profile was not attractive enough to issue a buy rating. Since then, the AFLYY ticker has gained 26.7% against the S&P500's 22% gain. So, we are looking at an outperformance agains...
Sjo/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Air France-KLM ( AFRAF , AFLYY ) has reported its fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings. I covered Air France-KLM in March 2025 with a hold rating. In my view, the risk-reward profile was not attractive enough to issue a buy rating. Since then, the AFLYY ticker has gained 26.7% against the S&P500's 22% gain. So, we are looking at an outperformance against the broader market. However, I still believe that this outperformance was not big enough for a buy rating. In this report, I discuss the Q4 2025 earnings for Air France-KLM, the guidance for 2026 and I update my price target as I am upgrading the stock from hold to buy. Air France-KLM Earnings Are Not Inspiring Air France-KLM (Earnings Presentation) Air France-KLM reported 3.9% growth in sales to €8.2 billion compared to €8.122 billion expected by analysts. So, the company did beat analyst forecasts. Operating results remained more or less even at €393 million, with margins dropping 20 basis points to 4.8%. We note that unit revenues declined 0.5%, but coupled with capacity expansions, this drove €31 million to the operating results. This, however, was partially offset by lower cargo unit revenues, which resulted in a €66 million headwind. So, overall unit revenue development was negative in terms of EBIT contribution. Unit costs, however, were favorable with a €79 million, but this was largely offset by higher fuel costs. The reason why operating profits were not substantially lower compared to a year ago was currency tailwinds. On a constant currency basis, we note that operating profits would have been down by 8.6%. My view is that the Q4 performance was not impressive. Air France-KLM (Earnings Presentation) Air France-KLM revenues increased by 4.7% to €6.2 billion, driven by 4.3% growth in capacity and 2.2% growth in unit revenues. However, including currency effects, the unit revenues were likely a small 0.4% tailwind. Cargo revenues decreased 8.5% as unit revenues f...
In this article RELIANCE-IN BX RELI AMD NVDA MSFT GOOGL AMZN META Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT Tech giants have committed to funneling hundreds of billions of dollars into Indian AI efforts, against the backdrop of a major summit in the country that's brought together world leaders and AI execs. Record sums are being ploughed into AI as governments and companies across the globe...
In this article RELIANCE-IN BX RELI AMD NVDA MSFT GOOGL AMZN META Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT Tech giants have committed to funneling hundreds of billions of dollars into Indian AI efforts, against the backdrop of a major summit in the country that's brought together world leaders and AI execs. Record sums are being ploughed into AI as governments and companies across the globe race to roll out the technology. Hyperscalers — including the likes of Amazon , Microsoft , Meta and Alphabet — announced capital expenditure that could hit $700 billion on AI this year. The past week has seen Indian tech group Reliance reportedly announcing plans to invest $110 billion into data centers and other infrastructure, and compatriot Adani outlining a $100 billion AI data center buildout over the next decade. There were also big announcements from U.S. tech firms. Microsoft said at the Indian AI Impact Summit that it was on pace to invest $50 billion in AI in the Global South by the end of the decade. OpenAI and chipmaker AMD both announced partnerships with Tata Group to build AI capabilities, and U.S. asset manager Blackstone also said it had participated in a $600 million equity raise for Indian AI infrastructure Neysa. The commitments were announced during a summit that was also marked by points of controversy. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates withdrew from the event amid public backlash for his past relationship with deceased financier and sex predator Jeffrey Epstein. An Indian university was also criticized after claiming it had invented a commercially available Chinese-made robot dog. India's AI potential The AI Summit came as India pushes to be one of the world's tech superpowers. The country has approved $18 billion of chip projects as it looks to bolster its local supply chain. Meanwhile, the U.S. and India are edging towards a trade pact that would lower tariffs and increase economic cooperation between the two countries. Tech ties were deepened furth...