印尼央行周四连续第四次会议维持利率不变，这一结果符合市场普遍预期，当前政策重心仍是稳定印尼盾。 印尼央行将7 天期逆回购基准利率维持在4.75%，延续了自去年 9 月最后一次降息后的按兵不动态势。 该决议是在汇率与市场出现波动的背景下作出的。 近几个月来，印尼盾兑美元跌至历史低位，促使政策制定者承诺将持续进行汇市干预以稳定本币。 印尼央行行长表示，这一决定符合央行稳定印尼盾、将通胀控制在目标区间并支撑经济增长的目标。 央行同时将隔夜存款工具利率维持在3.75%，贷款工具利率维持在5.50%。 印尼央行表示，将继续推动此前降息及其他政策措施向实体经济传导，并将根据 2026—2027 年通胀预期1.5%—3.5%，评估进一步降息的空间，同时为经济增长提供支持。 该行预计，在政府刺激措施、重大宗教节日带动居民消费走强，以及公共支出与企业信心改善支撑投资回升的推动下，2026 年第一季度经济增长将有所加强。 印尼央行称，印尼盾相对于经济基本面被低估，并已加大汇市干预力度。预计在相关措施持续落地及基本面稳健的支撑下，汇率将趋于稳定并逐步走强。 周四的政策会议也是印尼总统Prabowo的侄子Thomas Djiwandono以印尼央行副行长身份首次出席会议。凯投宏观的Jason Tuvey表示：“部分人士会将此次按兵不动视为央行独立性得到保障的信号，不过我们提醒称，目前下结论仍为时过早。” 马来西亚兴业银行经济学家表示，印尼央行进一步降息，大概率会与市场预期的美联储在第二季度调整联邦基金利率同步进行。他指出，近期政策路径将取决于经济增长、通胀及印尼盾走势。 责任编辑：何云

Pakorn Supajitsoontorn/iStock via Getty Images For most of the final quarter of 2025, the macroeconomic landscape was shaped as much by what investors couldn't see as by what they could. The U.S. government shutdown—lasting a record 43 days—created a significant information vacuum just as markets sought clarity on growth, inflation, and policy trajectories. Despite the data fog, the global macro backdrop proved “good enough” for risk assets. Global growth held firm, inflation stayed sticky but avoided more disruptive outcomes, and most central banks leaned more accommodative than hawkish. In the U.S., elevated downside labor market risk kept U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) easing in play, leading to rate cuts even as the economy expanded. However, policymaker dissents emerged as the Fed Funds rate approached the Federal Open Market Committee’s neutral estimate. International markets—particularly Japan and parts of Europe—offered broadly supportive signals, though political uncertainty occasionally weighed on European sentiment. Since mid-2024, most major developed market central banks have cut rates by 150-200 basis points (1.50%-2.00%) or more, meaning some could be close to the end of their easing cycle. The Bank of Japan remains on a separate trajectory with a gradual pace of rate hikes from a highly accommodative starting point, including two in 2025 and two more expected in 2026. Overall, the global tariff environment proved less disruptive than earlier fears. U.S. monthly tariff collections rose but remained well below levels implied by announced policies, while statutory rates edged lower as deals and exemptions took hold. Still, investors monitored persistent trade-related risks alongside other potential headwinds, including slower AI investment, labor market softening, bond market volatility tied to inflation or fiscal stress, and ongoing risk of geopolitical shocks. Financial markets capped a strong 2025 with 4Q gains across both equities and fixed income. Ma...

JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images We use option statistics to help forecast intermediate-term moves in stocks. Intermediate-term moves are price trends that last from two to five months. Right now, option activity in Palantir ( PLTR ) points to higher prices. Note: Option statistics should not be used to determine “what” to buy or sell. That is best determined with fundamental analysis. But option data is very useful at helping an investor determine “when” they should buy or sell it. I would never buy or sell a stock without first seeing what option activity was saying about its immediate direction. Options Since “calls” are bets prices will rise and “puts” are bets they'll decline, options are a wonderful vehicle to measure how bullish or bearish investors are. To highlight this, I'm going to show you three charts of option activity in Palantir. The puts-to-calls ratio This chart is the ratio of the money going into directional puts versus directional calls in PLTR. We compare dollars, not number of contracts, since it’s more accurate. By using 20-day averages, we turn short-term numbers into intermediate-term indicators. The term “indicators of investor expectations” was coined by Marty Zweig in the 1970s. To discover what investors expect he compared their buying of “put” and “call” option contracts. When “too many” investors have the same expectation, the opposite usually happens. Option activity is used to measure when “too many” investors have the same expectation. We compare how much “money” is going into put options, expecting the price to decline, versus how much is going into call options, expecting a rise. Only “directional” option purchases are used. Ratios are calculated over 20 days to obtain intermediate-term expectations. High ratios indicates high dollar put buying expecting lower prices. History shows you inevitably get the opposite. It's the theory of contrary opinion in action. As the arrows show, the current ratio matches the high rat...

JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images We use option statistics to help forecast intermediate-term moves in stocks. Intermediate-term moves are price trends that last from two to five months. Right now, option activity in Palantir ( PLTR ) points to higher prices. Note: Option statistics should not be used to determine “what” to buy or sell. That is best determined with fundamental analysis. But option data is very useful at helping an investor determine “when” they should buy or sell it. I would never buy or sell a stock without first seeing what option activity was saying about its immediate direction. Options Since “calls” are bets prices will rise and “puts” are bets they'll decline, options are a wonderful vehicle to measure how bullish or bearish investors are. To highlight this, I'm going to show you three charts of option activity in Palantir. The puts-to-calls ratio This chart is the ratio of the money going into directional puts versus directional calls in PLTR. We compare dollars, not number of contracts, since it’s more accurate. By using 20-day averages, we turn short-term numbers into intermediate-term indicators. The term “indicators of investor expectations” was coined by Marty Zweig in the 1970s. To discover what investors expect he compared their buying of “put” and “call” option contracts. When “too many” investors have the same expectation, the opposite usually happens. Option activity is used to measure when “too many” investors have the same expectation. We compare how much “money” is going into put options, expecting the price to decline, versus how much is going into call options, expecting a rise. Only “directional” option purchases are used. Ratios are calculated over 20 days to obtain intermediate-term expectations. High ratios indicates high dollar put buying expecting lower prices. History shows you inevitably get the opposite. It's the theory of contrary opinion in action. As the arrows show, the current ratio matches the high rat...

canart7/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images After a prolonged period of underperformance, Heineken N.V.'s ( HEINY ) shares are finally gaining momentum (Fig. 1). While the recent rally is encouraging, further upside appears achievable. Here at the Lab, we have been supportive of the company's equity story since 2022. Heineken's buy rating has evolved and is now underpinned by the execution of its EverGreen strategy and a valuation that remains compelling relative to peers. The updated 2030 roadmap, focused on mid-single-digit organic growth, faster cost efficiencies, and more selective capital deployment, reinforces the long-term investment case. Mare Ev. Lab Rating Update Fig 1 Heineken Results and Our Positive Take The company reported a 1.2% volume decline (Fig. 2), resulting in 281.6 million hectoliters sold and top-line sales of €28.89 billion. Despite lower volumes, Heineken grew premium beer volume and managed its cost basis, increasing EBIT by 4.4% and expanding margins by 41 basis points to 15.2%. On the top-line sales evolution, Heineken reported lower revenue by almost €1.5 billion. This was due to the Euro's strength. Positively, the company's Evergreen Strategic Plan is already bearing fruit, with gross savings exceeding €500 million, which is driving higher FCF. Indeed, the company's free cash flow beat analysts' expectations, with a cash conversion rate of 87%. Heineken 2025 Results in a Snap Source: Heineken 2025 Results ppt - Fig 2 Why are we Positive? Aside from a substantial FCF generation, we see supportive 2026 guidance. In numbers, Heineken’s Fiscal Year 2026 outlook (2–6% organic EBIT growth) appears solid, reflecting ongoing volume pressure in LatAm and Europe, as well as the need to balance reinvestment in marketing and digital capabilities with operating leverage. There are a few levers to be optimistic: 1) FIFA World Cup 2026, 2) lower consumption tax in India , which favors the Kingfisher, which is the leading beer brand, 3) supportive pri...

联合国人道事务协调厅2月18日发布报告称，1月12日至16日，刚果（金）北基伍省鲁丘鲁地区亲政府民兵与反政府武装“M23运动”爆发武装冲突，造成至少50名平民死亡、多人受伤，大量民众流离失所。此外，1月初政府军针对反政府武装组织阵地实施空袭行动，造成11人死亡、约40人受伤。刚果（金）政府此前宣布接受安哥拉调停，双方停火协议于2月18日生效，截至19日，冲突双方均未明确确认停火执行情况。（央视新闻）

PaulinaOK/iStock via Getty Images Crocs ( CROX ) is a well-known footwear brand worldwide, especially recognized for its iconic clogs. I started covering the firm back in 2022 and have published 6 writings on the firm since then. My ratings were normally driven by the changes in the macroeconomic environment as well as by the firm's financial performance. Analysis history (Author) While my latest rating on the stock was a buy, the company's stock did not perform particularly well in the past year. Despite the recent price spike, CROX lost 11% of its market value, while the S&P 500 ( SPY ) gained 12% and the consumer discretionary sector ( XLY ) gained 2%. Data by YCharts The aim of my writing today is to give you an updated view on the business and the macroeconomic environment. I believe that the buy rating I assigned before is not valid currently, and I am going to introduce you to the main reasons why I believe a downgrade is warranted. For my discussions I will be using the company's most recent earnings results , together with economic indicators and price multiples. Sales and Outlook For the most recent quarter, CROX beat analyst estimates top and bottom line, driven by the strong demand in the holiday seasons, prompting a sharp share price increase. Despite beating analyst estimates, the firm's revenue actually declined year-over-year. Revenue came in at $958 million. If we break down these sales figures by brands, we can see that the Crocs brand remained flat, while HEYDUDE sales plummeted by 18% in the fourth quarter. The lack of sales growth for Crocs and the lackluster demand for HEYDUDE are concerning. CROX acquired HEYDUDE few years ago to diversify its product portfolio. It is definitely a good idea to diversify, but it does not seem to be working well. Q4 results (Crocs) Also worrying that accounts receivable grew YoY, while sales fell. I normally like to see sales growth and accounts receivable growth align. If accounts receivable grow faster or grow...

专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报 这家餐饮外卖应用预计第一季度利润增速将放缓，部分原因是对 Deliveroo 的相关投入。 DoorDash 公布营收增长 38%，达到 39.55 亿美元，部分得益于本季度对英国外卖公司 Deliveroo 的收购。 DoorDash 预计第一季度总订单量将增长 37%，略低于第四季度增速。消息公布后，DoorDash 盘前股价上涨12.3%。 该公司公布息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）增长 38%，但预计今年第一季度 EBITDA 增速将放缓，部分原因是对 Deliveroo 的投入，另一部分原因是美国冬季风暴的影响。 责任编辑：郭明煜

记者从中国信托业协会了解到，2025年我国共新增慈善信托备案规模16.94亿元。其中，共有508单慈善信托新设备案，新设备案规模为9.26亿元；共有151单存续慈善信托变更备案，增加备案规模7.68亿元。截至2025年末，我国慈善信托累计备案数量为2757单，累计备案规模102.31亿元。（央视新闻）

Germany’s largest airport faces disruptions after extensive snowfall in the Frankfurt region, the latest in a string of weather-related strains on air traffic in recent weeks. Frankfurt airport canceled 83 flights so far, according to a spokesperson for airport operator Fraport AG . A total of 1,098 flights with more than 131,000 passengers were scheduled on Thursday. Arrival delays are averaging 1 hour 16 minutes and are increasing, according to Flightaware . “Compared with recent weeks, today’s situation is particularly challenging due to the heavy snowfall,” the spokesperson said. “With the forecast improvement in weather conditions later today, we expect the situation to stabilize gradually.” Airlines have been reducing flight schedules to try and mitigate the impact. Deutsche Lufthansa AG , Germany’s biggest airline, said the snowfall is causing delays and cancellations, without providing details. Winter service and de-icing teams have been working to clear runways and prepare aircraft for takeoffs since early Thursday morning in Frankfurt. Snowfall is expected to continue until late morning. Severe weather conditions have hampered air traffic in Germany several times in recent weeks. Earlier this month, Berlin’s airport had to temporarily close after black ice triggered groundings. More than 190 flights at the hub were canceled at the time. Transportation in Germany’s financial hub is further complicated by a one-day strike of public transport workers, which has halted subway and streetcar lines on Thursday. The country also faced a one-day walk out by Lufthansa pilots earlier this month, forcing the cancellation of nearly 800 flights.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman discusses the democratization of AI, saying we should remain “humble” about what we still don’t know about superintelligence. He pointed to the uncertainty around how the technology could be used by totalitarian governments while speaking at India's AI summit. (Source: Bloomberg)

Earnings Call Insights: Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q4 2025 Management View Matthew Oppenheimer, CEO, opened the call by announcing the appointment of Sebastian Gunningham as Remitly's new CEO, emphasizing that "We ended this strategically important year with incredible results, growing revenue by 29% and reaching adjusted EBITDA of $272 million in 2025, exceeding our guidance for both." Oppenheimer highlighted the company's transformation over five years, noting "We are now over $1.6 billion in revenue, serving more than 9 million customers." He stated that the company's core money movement business continues to show strong momentum, with less than 4% market share in the consumer total addressable market, providing significant headroom for expansion. Oppenheimer cited the growth of new products, such as Flex (Send Now, Pay Later), which reached around 120,000 users, and Remitly Business, which ended the year with over 15,000 business customers. He also outlined strategic priorities for 2026, including further expansion in high-amount senders and geographical growth in regions like the UAE, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and potentially Brazil. Sebastian Gunningham, the incoming CEO, introduced himself and described his background in product, engineering, and financial services, noting, “Remitly serves a global community that has been historically underserved and overcharged.” Gunningham stressed his focus on building the best product, leveraging AI, and driving growth: “In digital financial services, the product is the business. That will be my focus and the way we keep growing our customer base, delivering a great service and driving our revenue growth.” Vikas Mehta, CFO, stated, “Fourth quarter was $442 million revenue, up 26% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $89 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%, our highest quarterly adjusted EBITDA margin ever.” Mehta emphasized efficiency gains, record low transaction losses, and disciplined expense management a...

This stock has climbed in the triple digits in recent years.

Key PointsIntuitive Surgical dominates the robotic surgery market.

格隆汇2月19日｜日本企业特别税收抵免额达2万亿日元。

英国国债收益率攀升，追随美国国债走势，此前美联储会议纪要显示，决策者希望在降息前看到通胀进一步回落。会议纪要显示，一些决策者甚至倾向于改变声明的措辞，以暗示如果通胀持续高企，利率可能会被上调。德意志银行研究部策略师在一份报告中称，该会议纪要“加深了这样一种感觉，即多数美国联邦公开市场委员会成员不急于进一步降息“。 Tradeweb 数据显示，10年期英国国债收益率上升1.6个基点，最新报4.388%。 责任编辑：何云

The appointment follows allegations she was previously spoken to about her management style Keir Starmer has appointed Dame Antonia Romeo as cabinet secretary and head of the civil service. The appointment follows allegations she was previously spoken to about her management style. Continue reading...

OneSpaWorld ( OSW ) declares $0.05/share quarterly dividend , in line with previous. Forward yield 0.9% Payable March 25; for shareholders of record March 11; ex-div March 11. The company has now announced a dividend of $0.05 for two consecutive quarters. See OSW Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth. More on OneSpaWorld OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript OnespaWorld expects 2026 revenues to surpass $1B as AI initiatives and new ship builds drive growth OneSpaWorld Non-GAAP EPS of $0.24 misses by $0.02, revenue of $242.1M misses by $0.7M Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on OneSpaWorld Historical earnings data for OneSpaWorld

Krilogy Financial LLC Buys 2,918 Shares of Meta Platforms, Inc. $META MarketBeat

Etsy 周三宣布，已同意将二手服饰交易应用 Depop 以约 12 亿美元 出售给 eBay。 这笔交易价格低于 Etsy 五年前收购时的 16 亿美元，意味着 折价出售 。这一决定与公司此前态度形成鲜明反转 —— 就在去年 12 月，Etsy 高管还在高调表示将继续投入资金推动 Depop 增长。 消息公布后，Etsy盘前股价大涨超 14% 。 尽管 Depop 规模远小于 Etsy 主营业务，2025 年交易额约 10 亿美元，但它曾是公司重点押注的增长板块。 Etsy 为此投入了 巨额营销费用 ，向美国消费者推广这家英国起家的平台，相关支出持续拖累了公司整体利润率。 时任 Etsy 首席执行官乔希・西尔弗曼在 12 月的一场会议上对分析师表示： “这只是阶段性的集中营销投入，目的是提升这家我们认为具备巨大增长潜力的业务的知名度。” 西尔弗曼已于 2026 年初卸任 CEO，由曾负责 Depop 业务的克鲁蒂・帕特尔・戈亚尔接任。 责任编辑：郭明煜

Wachiwit/iStock Editorial via Getty Images If you screen stocks purely on numbers, then eToro Group ( ETOR ) looks like a mistake. It reports extremely bloated IFRS revenues because of crypto accounting rules, making its EV/sales effectively zero . It trades at a P/E ratio that suggests it is a declining legacy financial institution and not a growth fintech, which it really is. However, if you take a closer look at the stock, you find something very rare. This company isn’t just a brokerage; it’s a social network where people bet with real money. eToro has 3.8 million funded accounts, a balance sheet with around $1.1 billion of net cash, and a really sticky factor providing it with a moat called the “copy trader” feature, which traditional brokerage peers like Interactive Brokers ( IBKR ) and Robinhood ( HOOD ) simply cannot replicate overnight. The market is currently punishing eToro for its strong link to retail trading mania and crypto volatility. The recent Q4 results gave the stock a much-needed short-term boost. My take is that eToro is a high-quality business trading at a near-junk or decline price. However, the fall may not be over yet. I won’t be buying the stock today; however, I will be ready for the inevitable crypto winter decline in retail trading volume and prepare to buy this stock at further declines over the next 3-6 months. The business model - and Copy Trader To understand why eToro is worth taking a look at, let’s dig into the details of its business models and, most importantly, what makes eToro different. Most brokers are ‘utilities,’ and you would ideally go there, trade, and leave. Moreover, today, the stickiness that you would have with any broker is very limited, and it would take you just a few clicks to move your money completely away from one broker to another. This may not be the case with eToro, which has distinguished itself and positioned itself at the intersection of social media and finance. The core differentiator for eToro is it...

财联社 2月19日讯（记者 陈夏筱） 随着历史剧《太平年》在央视及多家平台的热播，作为联合摄制地和吴越文化重要承载地的浙江台州临海，在春节期间掀起了一场寻访“吴越痕迹”的深度文化游热潮。 在台州的发展历史上，吴越国留下了浓墨重彩的一笔。五代时期，台州府城隶属于吴越国管辖范围。钱氏，这个深刻影响江南历史的家族，其命运更是与台州府所在地临海紧密交织。吴越国最后一任君主钱弘俶18岁时担任台州刺史，回杭后被拥立为吴越国主。 现在，临海的台州府城墙是长三角地区保存最完整的古城墙。从正月初一（2月17日）起，景区推出的全时段沉浸式新春活动与惠民政策，让古城的烟火气与书卷气交织升腾，点燃了新春文旅消费的“一把火”。 （春节人流 财联社记者摄影） 一部剧带火一座城 “一部剧带火一座城”的故事，这个春节在台州临海有了生动的全域演绎。 由临海参与摄制的《太平年》，讲述了五代期间吴越国“纳土归宋”的历史故事，剧中大量镜头展现了台州府城墙、紫阳古街、东湖等临海标志性景点的风貌，更在剧情中呈现了“章安港”等历史地理坐标。 此外，剧中“秘色瓷价值连城”的台词，在临海找到了真实注脚。梅浦窑遗址新近入选2025年度浙江考古重大发现，印证了北宋时期这里对秘色瓷工艺的传承与发扬。 电视剧的热播，让这些本就底蕴深厚的景点被赋予了新的叙事张力。在台州府城墙上，许多年轻游客特意寻找剧中的同款机位。 一位来自福建漳州的游客王女士告诉财联社记者，一直想来台州旅游，春节前便和家人一起早早规划了自驾游计划，“这里古迹和美食很多，已经买了一大包定胜糕和几箱涌泉蜜桔，准备带回家去送亲戚。” 临海的知名度相比以前高了不少。为了承接这波热度，临海推出了新春主题活动，每天30场融合传统年味和科技浪漫的演出。正月初一，财联社记者在台州古城景区看到，兴善门外，“戚家军”身披玄甲、腰佩战刀，列队巡游，旌旗猎猎；东湖之上，表演者脚踩楠竹“一苇渡江”，再现了剧中“钱王射潮”般的江南水墨意境。 待夜幕降临，古城墙上的光影秀与灵江畔的无人 机表演交相辉映；巾山广场上，游客们放飞电子孔明灯，点点星火承载着“四海清宁，黎民欢颜”的太平祈愿划破夜空。 （戚家军表演 财联社记者摄） 省外自驾游游客显著增加 为了让游客深度体验“剧中景”，台州府城文化旅游区从2月15日起实行 “一票游三天”政策。实名购票后，游客可刷脸在三日内不限次数进入景区。 台州...

荷兰国际 集团的Chris Turner在一份报告中表示，美联储最新的会议纪要进一步印证了特朗普政府不介意美元走软的观点。该会议纪要证实，纽约联邦储备银行上个月代表美国财政部查询了美元兑日元的汇率。Turner说，此举反映了美国和日本的共同愿望，即美元不会持续升至160日元上方。他说，这叠加美联储降息和日本央行加息，意味着资产管理公司应该很有兴趣在156-158日元区间卖出美元。美元兑日元基本持平，报154.81日元。 责任编辑：何云

Stanley Druckenmiller, a former hedge fund manager with an incredible track record, sold Meta Platforms and bought Amazon in the fourth quarter.

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Sells Meta Platforms Stock and Buys an AI Stock Up 210,000% Since Its IPO Yahoo Finance