Welcome to Weather Watch, our weekly newsletter on how the planet’s ever wilder weather patterns are impacting the global economy. Got feedback and forecasts? Write us at weatherteam@bloomberg.net . And sign up here if you’re not on the list already. As gas stockpiles dwindle in the waning days of winter, European energy traders are betting on shifts in the polar vortex that have the potential to ...
Welcome to Weather Watch, our weekly newsletter on how the planet’s ever wilder weather patterns are impacting the global economy. Got feedback and forecasts? Write us at weatherteam@bloomberg.net . And sign up here if you’re not on the list already. As gas stockpiles dwindle in the waning days of winter, European energy traders are betting on shifts in the polar vortex that have the potential to flood the region with Arctic air. The trigger for some of the biggest surges in heating demand is a so-called sudden stratospheric warming: an abrupt rise in high-altitude temperatures above the Arctic that can weaken the polar vortex and funnel icy air over the continent. Eight years ago, a polar vortex disruption — dubbed the “Beast from the East” — produced freezing weather that saw UK electricity prices surge, as more than half a meter of snow dumped in some places. The mere mention of the phenomenon can send a buzz through trading desks, but forecasting the timing and scale of any cold blast is notoriously difficult. “It increases the probability of cold, but it doesn’t happen every time,” said Erik Kolstad, a climate scientist at NORCE Research AS in Bergen, Norway. A combination of weather satellites — first launched in the 1970s — and the latest computer simulations allows forecasters to spot polar vortex weakening and stratospheric warming events three weeks in advance, Kolstad said. Beyond the 10-day mark, however, the accuracy of weather models to predict cold spells in Europe is strongly linked to whether they can anticipate large-scale circulation patterns like a weak North Atlantic Oscillation, which can reduce the flow of warmer westerly winds into northern Europe. The formation of high pressure over Scandinavia can also block the westerly jet stream. “That could stay there for a long time and has a big impact on the weather because it acts as a shield,” Kolstad said. Traditional weather models are getting better at predicting European cold spells and whether...
Getty Images Investment Thesis Coming into 2025, Bitcoin and the broader market were declining, and then we saw prices bottoming in the first week of April, followed by a healthy correction. We're seeing the similar trend coming into 2026; however, the broader market seems to be holding up pretty well while crypto prices continue to witness massive drawdowns. Year-to-date, the ( SPY ) is up 0.5%, ...
Getty Images Investment Thesis Coming into 2025, Bitcoin and the broader market were declining, and then we saw prices bottoming in the first week of April, followed by a healthy correction. We're seeing the similar trend coming into 2026; however, the broader market seems to be holding up pretty well while crypto prices continue to witness massive drawdowns. Year-to-date, the ( SPY ) is up 0.5%, while Bitcoin and Coinbase ( COIN ) lost 21% and 27% of value, respectively. Coinbase's price trades closely to Bitcoin's price but with a higher volatility, as it is perceived to be a more risk-on asset compared to Bitcoin given the management and the operational risk embedded in the equity. The reason for the strong correlation between two assets has to do with crypto trading volume. Generally, when the Bitcoin price appreciates, we witness more trading activity among exchanges, which translates to more volume and more revenue. The opposite occurs when Bitcoin drops. Data by YCharts YoY, COIN lost 48.68% of its value, while Bitcoin lost 32.83%, and the S&P returned 14.23%. For the knife-catchers, the way to play the trade would be to buy Coinbase, as it's the stock that could witness steeper upside in the case of an industry correction. I wouldn't recommend such a trade for conservative investors like myself, as I see structural headwinds that limit the upside potential. If you want to play the "This could be the bottom" game, I think Bitcoin is a safer asset; hence, I'm rating COIN a hold. Bear Case The main bear case for Coinbase is that the firm still sources the majority of its revenue from retail trading volume. This is the business segment that has been in a cyclical decline since the peak of 2021. Institutional trading has also been in a decline but is slowly returning to the same level as in 2021. From Dec. 2021, retail trading volume decreased 55%, from 535 billion to 239 billion, and institutional trading volume only decreased 14%, from 1.14 trillion to 982 bill...
Getty Images Software Armageddon, SaaS apocalypse, this forest fire engulfing some of the most highly valued stocks in the US (and even Microsoft ( MSFT ) couldn’t escape unharmed) has taken down the valuations of some of the most highly valued stocks in the software universe that we know of. So much so that the pessimism has taken the multiples of software stocks ( IGV ) down to new lows not seen...
Getty Images Software Armageddon, SaaS apocalypse, this forest fire engulfing some of the most highly valued stocks in the US (and even Microsoft ( MSFT ) couldn’t escape unharmed) has taken down the valuations of some of the most highly valued stocks in the software universe that we know of. So much so that the pessimism has taken the multiples of software stocks ( IGV ) down to new lows not seen in the past 10 years. The market has gone on a strike, taking even fundamentally strong software firms and financially weak software firms down in a hurry. While at the same time, the frenzy seen in the money-losing AI companies like OpenAI ( OPENAI ) and Anthropic ( ANTHRO ) is surging, as the investing world turned against software, thinking that somehow this “train wreck” is about to unfold before our very eyes. I guess I don’t really have to explain to you that my previous buy rating on Salesforce ( CRM ) appears to have underperformed significantly versus the market. There was simply nowhere to hide for Salesforce investors as the machete came slashing hard, devouring even what I thought were some of the best companies that we could find in the software arena right now. However, discerning investors should also be aware that in such trying circumstances, we must be cognizant of companies that could find their mojo back after the dust settles subsequently. Therefore, instead of taking the hatchet to bury every single software stock in our portfolio right now, you can consider taking a more surgical approach, even if you were to think of trimming some of your software exposure to hedge against potential disruption risks. Amid this disaster zone, there’s one company that has performed even more poorly than what the software multiples could point to. Coming in at 15x forward earnings, Salesforce investors have been bullied into submission. CRM has dropped to new lows not seen since early 2023. Investors have suddenly de-rated the stock, believing that Salesforce can no lo...
The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for Alibaba (BABA) is equivalent to a Buy. The overly optimistic recommendations of Wall Street analysts make the effectiveness of this highly sought-after metric questionable. So, is it worth buying the stock?
The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for Alibaba (BABA) is equivalent to a Buy. The overly optimistic recommendations of Wall Street analysts make the effectiveness of this highly sought-after metric questionable. So, is it worth buying the stock?
The recent plunge in software stocks is another reminder that AI is rattling through the economy, setting off rapid change and disruption wherever it goes.
The recent plunge in software stocks is another reminder that AI is rattling through the economy, setting off rapid change and disruption wherever it goes.
The Good Brigade | Getty Parents who took out student loans for their child's education could be excluded from affordable repayment plans and loan forgiveness programs in the coming months if they don't take certain steps soon, consumer advocates warn. "I'm hearing a lot of anxiety from parents about losing access to income-driven repayment plans ," said Kathleen Boyd, a certified financial planne...
The Good Brigade | Getty Parents who took out student loans for their child's education could be excluded from affordable repayment plans and loan forgiveness programs in the coming months if they don't take certain steps soon, consumer advocates warn. "I'm hearing a lot of anxiety from parents about losing access to income-driven repayment plans ," said Kathleen Boyd, a certified financial planner and founder of Student Loan Savvy in San Diego. The Parent PLUS federal loan program allows parents to borrow on behalf of dependent undergraduate students. Due to the passage of President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year, Parent PLUS borrowers will no longer qualify for IDR plans starting in July. IDR plans cap eligible borrowers' monthly bills at a share of their discretionary income and culminate in student loan forgiveness. "Our concern is that thousands of Parent PLUS borrowers who would otherwise be eligible for IDR plans and forgiveness post-July 2026 will not take the required action and be stuck with paying loans back in a plan they cannot afford," said Nancy Nierman, assistant director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York. Read more CNBC personal finance coverage Secure 2.0 let employers pair emergency savings and 401(k)s, but few have done so Home sellers start getting lower prices at 70, research shows — here's why Average IRS tax refund is up 10.9% so far this season, early filing data shows Early estimates point to lower Social Security COLA for 2027 Senators call for longer Social Security Fairness Act lump-sum payment timeline Here's the inflation breakdown for January 2026 — in one chart Average tax refund is up 22%, Bessent says — what filers can expect this season K-shaped economy looks like 'jaws of a crocodile,' economist says: Here's why How EPA 'endangerment finding' repeal could impact your wallet Medical emergencies can lead to debt and bankruptcy — even for insured Americans Bigger tax refunds may be co...
rattanavan Baunoi/iStock via Getty Images Intro To be fair to Cohu, Inc. ( COHU ), the stock has had an excellent 10 months or so, reporting impressive gains after dropping below $13 a share in March of last year. Our commentary on Cohu over the past 12 months has been comprehensively bearish , with shares initially trading at approximately $19 a share in February of last year. Slow restructuring ...
rattanavan Baunoi/iStock via Getty Images Intro To be fair to Cohu, Inc. ( COHU ), the stock has had an excellent 10 months or so, reporting impressive gains after dropping below $13 a share in March of last year. Our commentary on Cohu over the past 12 months has been comprehensively bearish , with shares initially trading at approximately $19 a share in February of last year. Slow restructuring initiatives, negative profitability, and concerning technicals remain our principal reasons for remaining bearish on Cohu. Although top-line revenues surprised to the upside in the Q4 release (announced 2/12/2025), earnings came in negative and missed the consensus bottom-line estimate by a substantial margin. On the earnings call, management delved into how recurring bookings spiked by 34% in the quarter, coming in at $73 million, with actual recurring revenue totalling 60% of the top-line take in the three months. Various design wins were also a major theme in the report, with management delving into interest in configurations of the Eclipse handler, success for the test-interface space, and a new order for HBM inspection for the engineering lab. Management continues to talk up the company's prospects based on its rising recurring income as well as its diverse revenue profile, as we see below. Cohu Q4 Earnings Presentation (Company Website) Margins & EPS Revision Trends Remain Unconvincing Nevertheless, our reasons for retaining our bearish stance post-Cohu's latest earnings release are threefold in nature. Firstly, there is the fact that although revenues grew by approximately $51 million in fiscal 2025, operating profit only improved to -$59.6 million as opposed to -$71.9 million in the preceding year (no real improvement in margins despite the 12%+ increase in top-line revenues this year). In fact, if we were to return to fiscal 2021 (when Cohu was doing almost twice in revenues to what it is doing at present), SG&A costs are on par with what they are at present. Furth...
Downdetector Users Report Widespread Outages At X, AWS, Cloudflare Around 8:00 a.m. ET, users on Downdetector reported outages and disruptions on X across the United States. At the same time, the outage tracker also showed a spike in reported issues involving Amazon Web Services and Cloudflare. Downdetector users reported X outages and disruptions across major U.S. cities. Simultaneously, Downdete...
Downdetector Users Report Widespread Outages At X, AWS, Cloudflare Around 8:00 a.m. ET, users on Downdetector reported outages and disruptions on X across the United States. At the same time, the outage tracker also showed a spike in reported issues involving Amazon Web Services and Cloudflare. Downdetector users reported X outages and disruptions across major U.S. cities. Simultaneously, Downdetector users reported outages affecting AWS and Cloudflare, raising the question of whether issues on Musk’s platform are a downstream effect. *Developing... Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:30
The Pentagon is close to cutting ties with Anthropic and may label the artificial intelligence company a supply chain risk after becoming frustrated with restrictions on how it can use the technology, Axios reported . The breakdown follows months of contentious negotiations about how the military can use the Claude tool, Axios said, citing a source familiar with the talks who it didn’t identify. I...
The Pentagon is close to cutting ties with Anthropic and may label the artificial intelligence company a supply chain risk after becoming frustrated with restrictions on how it can use the technology, Axios reported . The breakdown follows months of contentious negotiations about how the military can use the Claude tool, Axios said, citing a source familiar with the talks who it didn’t identify. In particular, Anthropic wants to make sure its AI isn’t used to spy on citizens on a large scale or to develop weapons that can be deployed without a human involved, the article said. The government wants to be allowed to use Claude for “all lawful purposes,” it said. If the AI company is deemed a supply chain risk, any company that wants to do business with the military will have to cut ties with Anthropic, Axios said, citing a senior Pentagon official. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told Axios that the relationship was being reviewed. A spokesperson for Anthropic told Axios it was having “productive conversations, in good faith” with the Department of War and said the company is committed to using AI for national security. A representative for Anthropic did not immediately respond to a Bloomberg request for comment. Read More: AI-Made Bioweapons Are Washington’s Latest Security Obsession Anthropic won a two-year agreement with the US Defense Department last year that involved a prototype of AI’s Claude Gov models and Claude for Enterprise. The Anthropic negotiations may set the tone for talks with OpenAI, Google and xAI, which aren’t yet used for classified work, Axios said. Anthropic, founded by former OpenAI researchers, positions itself as a more responsible AI company that aims to avoid any catastrophic harms from the advanced technology.
Mustapha GUNNOUNI/iStock via Getty Images By Peter Vanden Houte, Chief Economist, Belgium, Luxembourg, Eurozone Eurozone industrial production fell in December, but the cyclical upturn is likely to continue on the back of stronger domestic demand Structural headwinds won't stop the cyclical recovery Eurozone industrial production fell by 1.4% month-on-month in December but still grew by 1.2% on a ...
Mustapha GUNNOUNI/iStock via Getty Images By Peter Vanden Houte, Chief Economist, Belgium, Luxembourg, Eurozone Eurozone industrial production fell in December, but the cyclical upturn is likely to continue on the back of stronger domestic demand Structural headwinds won't stop the cyclical recovery Eurozone industrial production fell by 1.4% month-on-month in December but still grew by 1.2% on a year-on-year basis. The month-on-month decline was largely expected, as the recently published German and French figures were weak for December. It is easy to be downbeat about the prospects for eurozone industrial growth, as structural headwinds remain important. Natural gas prices are still more than three times as high in Europe as in the US, and cheap Chinese exports to Europe continue to grow at a strong pace. At the same time, European exporters still face higher import tariffs in the US. In the January business sentiment survey from the European Commission, the assessment of export orders remained downbeat, but overall orders improved. This suggests that domestic demand within the eurozone is starting to pick up, with German stimulus plans likely to be an important driving force. Indeed, German industrial orders climbed nearly 20% in the last four months of 2025. There are also signs that the inventory correction is largely behind us, with the assessment of stocks now close to the historical average. We therefore expect manufacturing to contribute positively to eurozone growth this year, even though the structural issues are far from resolved. Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more . Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for t...
Boffey was head of news for four top newspapers, reported for many more, and had a stint in Whitehall The Guardian, Observer, Mirror and Telegraph journalist, Chris Boffey, has been described as a “brilliant raconteur” and “wonderful boss” after his death at the age of 74. Boffey had a distinguished career as a reporter and served as head of news for four national newspapers. He also crossed the W...
Boffey was head of news for four top newspapers, reported for many more, and had a stint in Whitehall The Guardian, Observer, Mirror and Telegraph journalist, Chris Boffey, has been described as a “brilliant raconteur” and “wonderful boss” after his death at the age of 74. Boffey had a distinguished career as a reporter and served as head of news for four national newspapers. He also crossed the Westminster divide, spending time as a special adviser to the Blair-era education secretary Estelle Morris. Continue reading...
The holiday period is crucial for the launch of new products and Chinese AI plays are trying to prove they are as good as, or close enough to, global frontier models from OpenAI and Google.
The holiday period is crucial for the launch of new products and Chinese AI plays are trying to prove they are as good as, or close enough to, global frontier models from OpenAI and Google.
Curry fishball plushies, novelty minibus signs and products inspired by Hong Kong iconography emerged as bestsellers at the city’s biggest Lunar New Year fair, with one vendor saying he made more than HK$100,000 (US$12,790) in daily sales. From first-time sellers to charities, vendors were busy attracting customers with their locally designed merchandise on Wednesday as tens of thousands of festiv...
Curry fishball plushies, novelty minibus signs and products inspired by Hong Kong iconography emerged as bestsellers at the city’s biggest Lunar New Year fair, with one vendor saying he made more than HK$100,000 (US$12,790) in daily sales. From first-time sellers to charities, vendors were busy attracting customers with their locally designed merchandise on Wednesday as tens of thousands of festivalgoers lined the booths at Victoria Park’s Lunar New Year Fair. Among the busiest stalls was Lo...
Ukraine's Former Energy Minister Charged With Money Laundering As 'Operation Midas' Expands Months after Ukraine was shaken by a sweeping corruption probe into state nuclear giant Energoatom, and subject of international embarrassment given it even touched Zelensky's office , former Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko has now been formally charged - after authorities detained him while he was alle...
Ukraine's Former Energy Minister Charged With Money Laundering As 'Operation Midas' Expands Months after Ukraine was shaken by a sweeping corruption probe into state nuclear giant Energoatom, and subject of international embarrassment given it even touched Zelensky's office , former Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko has now been formally charged - after authorities detained him while he was allegedly attempting to leave the country. Halushchenko had been suspended by Zelensky in mid-November, when news of the scandal first hit global headlines. On Monday, Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) announced that Halushchenko faces formal charges of money laundering and participation in a criminal organization tied to what investigators call the Midas case or Operation Midas . The former Minister of Energy, Herman Galushchenko, Creative Commons "The former minister of energy (2021–2025) has been exposed for money laundering and participation in a criminal organization," the joint statement said, adding that investigators have "expanded the circle of suspects." The investigation is focused on members of the alleged network which established an investment fund in Anguilla (the British Overseas Territory in the Eastern Caribbean) in February 2021. The vehicle was marketed as raising roughly €118 million in "investments" - with Halushchenko’s family listed among the contributors - after which millions flowed directly into accounts controlled by the family . For example, authorities claim part of the funds paid for the education of Halushchenko’s children at elite Swiss institutions, while other sums were deposited into his ex-wife's accounts, also with a big portion of the money allegedly invested further, "earning extra income for the family's personal use." Halushchenko was energy minister from 2021 to 2025 before being appointed justice minister in July 2025. In November, NABU agents conducted raid...
When it comes to 2026, we have seen the rotation out of technology, but that excites me more than it concerns me, as I get an opportunity to buy high quality names at great valuaitons. In today's video, I am going to look at 8 stocks that have had bumpy rides, but still believe in their long term ability to return profits to shareholders. One of those stocks is my favorite in Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)....
When it comes to 2026, we have seen the rotation out of technology, but that excites me more than it concerns me, as I get an opportunity to buy high quality names at great valuaitons. In today's video, I am going to look at 8 stocks that have had bumpy rides, but still believe in their long term ability to return profits to shareholders. One of those stocks is my favorite in Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). Watch this short video to learn more, consider subscribing to the channel, and check out the special offer in the link below. Continue reading
A measles outbreak among unvaccinated children in London comes amid a global increase in infections A measles outbreak in London is affecting unvaccinated children under the age of 10, and comes amid an increase in infections globally. The UK was among six countries to lose the measles-free status granted by the World Health Organization (WHO) last month. Experts are calling on governments to urge...
A measles outbreak among unvaccinated children in London comes amid a global increase in infections A measles outbreak in London is affecting unvaccinated children under the age of 10, and comes amid an increase in infections globally. The UK was among six countries to lose the measles-free status granted by the World Health Organization (WHO) last month. Experts are calling on governments to urgently boost vaccination rates to stop measles infecting more children. Continue reading...