Goldman Sachs Group Inc. revised its forecast for China’s current-account surplus this year after incorporating data for the fourth quarter, when the measure of trade in goods and services rose to a record. The US bank now sees the surplus at 4.3% of gross domestic product in 2026, compared with 4.1% previously, according to a report. It reached 3.7% of GDP last year, exceeding Goldman’s forecast ...
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. revised its forecast for China’s current-account surplus this year after incorporating data for the fourth quarter, when the measure of trade in goods and services rose to a record. The US bank now sees the surplus at 4.3% of gross domestic product in 2026, compared with 4.1% previously, according to a report. It reached 3.7% of GDP last year, exceeding Goldman’s forecast of 3.5%, economists led by Yuting Yang said. Preliminary figures published by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE, showed China ran a current-account surplus of $242 billion last quarter, which Goldman estimates is the equivalent of 4.4% of GDP. “Looking forward, we expect a larger current-account surplus in 2026 on wider goods trade surplus and slightly narrower service trade deficit,” Goldman’s economists said. “For capital and financial accounts, we expect the picture of inward and outward FDI to remain similar this year vs. last year, and portfolio investment outflow to be smaller this year compared to last year.” China’s services trade deficit narrowed in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, SAFE’s data showed, while surging exports lifted its goods surplus . The International Monetary Fund had projected China’s overall current-account surplus at 3.3% of GDP last year. External imbalances are becoming more pronounced, which the IMF has linked in part to a real depreciation of the yuan. China’s Export Boom Far From Over After Record Trade Surplus China’s $1.2 Trillion Windfall Quietly Seeps Into Global Markets China’s $1.2 Trillion Windfall Quietly Seeps Into Global Markets Chinese Regions Cut GDP Goals in Sign Nationwide Target May Drop
Opposition challenger Péter Magyar is ahead in the polls on a promise of hope. Orbán is betting on fear of war to stay in power After 16 years of uninterrupted power, Viktor Orbán is facing his biggest electoral challenge. For years Hungary’s prime minister has spun weak policy performance as success. The rise of a rival, Péter Magyar, and the opposition Tisza party has exposed the limits of that ...
Opposition challenger Péter Magyar is ahead in the polls on a promise of hope. Orbán is betting on fear of war to stay in power After 16 years of uninterrupted power, Viktor Orbán is facing his biggest electoral challenge. For years Hungary’s prime minister has spun weak policy performance as success. The rise of a rival, Péter Magyar, and the opposition Tisza party has exposed the limits of that strategy. The economy is stagnating , despite repeated promises of a long-awaited takeoff. Over the past decade and a half, Hungary has slipped from being one of central and eastern Europe’s strongest performers to one of its weakest . Public services, from healthcare to transport, are widely seen as neglected, and Policy Solutions surveys show that voters have noticed . Hungary is not alone in facing a cost of living crisis, but comparisons offer little consolation to voters who were assured that Orbán’s model would deliver exceptional results. András Bíró-Nagy is a senior research fellow at the ELTE Centre for Social Sciences in Budapest and director of Policy Solutions. He is the author of The Path of Hungary’s EU Membership Continue reading...
Self-reliance is often encouraged over asking others for help in the modern world. But doing everything yourself can be a sign that you are scared of intimacy When a relative was seriously ill and in intensive care for more than a month, Cianne Jones stepped in. “I took it upon myself to be that person in the hospital every single day – chasing doctors, taking notes, making sure I understood why t...
Self-reliance is often encouraged over asking others for help in the modern world. But doing everything yourself can be a sign that you are scared of intimacy When a relative was seriously ill and in intensive care for more than a month, Cianne Jones stepped in. “I took it upon myself to be that person in the hospital every single day – chasing doctors, taking notes, making sure I understood why they were doing things.” It was so stressful, she says, that at one point her hair started falling out, but she ploughed on. It was Jones’s therapist who gently questioned whether she was going to ask for help. Jones laughs. “The hair falling out didn’t suggest to me that I needed help, it was somebody else looking in and saying that.” She has a large, close family who would have helped immediately – and did, once Jones asked – it’s just that it didn’t occur to her to ask. “I had taken that role on: ‘I’m just going to get everything done.’ I just took off, and that was it.” Continue reading...
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The "Magnificent Seven" group of stocks is a well-known cohort that makes up the world's largest companies. It includes: These seven stocks have been great investments over the years, but rarely are they called cheap. However, I think we're nearing that point, and some of these stocks could be scooped up at a fairly attractive valuation compared to just a few months back. Which ones are now cheap?...
The "Magnificent Seven" group of stocks is a well-known cohort that makes up the world's largest companies. It includes: These seven stocks have been great investments over the years, but rarely are they called cheap. However, I think we're nearing that point, and some of these stocks could be scooped up at a fairly attractive valuation compared to just a few months back. Which ones are now cheap? Let's take a look. Continue reading
Both the VanEck Short Muni ETF (NYSEMKT:SMB) and iShares 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IGSB) are designed for investors seeking relatively low-duration bond exposure, but their approaches diverge. SMB tracks short-term tax-exempt municipal bonds, while IGSB tracks investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds . The 1-yr return represents total return over the trailing 12 months. Con...
Both the VanEck Short Muni ETF (NYSEMKT:SMB) and iShares 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IGSB) are designed for investors seeking relatively low-duration bond exposure, but their approaches diverge. SMB tracks short-term tax-exempt municipal bonds, while IGSB tracks investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds . The 1-yr return represents total return over the trailing 12 months. Continue reading
Walmart is enjoying a renaissance as shoppers increasingly shift spending from high-cost rivals to its superstores, while a major e-commerce reset challenges Amazon's dominance. New data from Placer.ai shows customer visits are surging, creating a tailwind that is reshaping retail and capturing ...
Walmart is enjoying a renaissance as shoppers increasingly shift spending from high-cost rivals to its superstores, while a major e-commerce reset challenges Amazon's dominance. New data from Placer.ai shows customer visits are surging, creating a tailwind that is reshaping retail and capturing ...
imaginima/iStock via Getty Images My thesis Noah Holdings Limited ( NOAH ), as of the start of 2026, presents itself as an asset management company that very successfully transformed its business model, managing to lower its dependency on China‘s real estate sector and shadow banking products. The main investment thesis is built on the company's strategic shift towards standardized investment prod...
imaginima/iStock via Getty Images My thesis Noah Holdings Limited ( NOAH ), as of the start of 2026, presents itself as an asset management company that very successfully transformed its business model, managing to lower its dependency on China‘s real estate sector and shadow banking products. The main investment thesis is built on the company's strategic shift towards standardized investment products, as well as aggressive international expansion intended to serve the global Chinese-speaking community and high-net-worth individuals. Financially, NOAH stands out with its strong balance sheet. The company has historically had significant amounts of cash and short-term investments, which usually make up a big part of the whole market capitalization, giving fundamental safety guarantees to value investors. Even though geopolitical risks and China‘s fluctuations in domestic consumption lead to historically low valuation ratios, management‘s commitment to return capital through dividends and share buyback programs shows its trust in the business long term. For investors, this is a classic deep value opportunity, where the market has doubt on China‘s macroeconomic situation and is ignoring real cash flows and a growing international segment. Business model and product rotation Noah Holdings bussiness model is undergoing a fundamental transformation whose axis is a strategic turn from traditional local products with fixed yield to global investment solutions and secondary market instruments. Latest Q3 2025 results showed agressive products rotation. The company sucessfully deacreased their dependency on China‘s domestic insurance product distribution, whose revenues are retreating, and reoriented client flows to foreign investment products, especially mutual funds, as well as private capital secondary market products. This diversification is directly reflected in the revenue structure, where foreign market operations now generate almost half of total net revenue. The compa...