NongAsimo/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Welcome to the SA’s The Macro Brief! This official SA Profile will highlight our analysts' latest economic and market analysis to help investors gauge the ever-volatile financial landscape through various recurring series. The economy is the foundation of financial markets, influencing everything from corporate earnings and consumer spending to centra...
NongAsimo/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Welcome to the SA’s The Macro Brief! This official SA Profile will highlight our analysts' latest economic and market analysis to help investors gauge the ever-volatile financial landscape through various recurring series. The economy is the foundation of financial markets, influencing everything from corporate earnings and consumer spending to central bank policy and inflation. Understanding economic trends, policy decisions, and sector activity can be critical when assessing market opportunities and making informed investment decisions. Check out these must-reads from February’s first half… Trending Themes Fear Is Growing Buyer Beware: The Market's AI Bubble Risk Just Got Even Bigger | Samuel Smith | 2/7/26 “A massive spending surge is quietly reshaping the market’s risk profile. What looks like innovation may be creating a dangerous new dependency. One overlooked corner of the market could benefit enormously.” Sell The "Dead Cat" Bounce, The Bear Market Risks Are Rising | Damir Tokic | 2/10/26 “Hedge funds are making massive short bets against tech, and the recent bounce was likely due to short covering. Thus, the selloff is likely to continue as the AI bubble continues to burst. In addition, the cyclical rotation trade is likely to falter, given the recent negative economic data.” 3 Warning Signs The Stock Market Is Overdue For A Sharp Correction | High Yield Investor | 2/11/26 “While the S&P 500 ( SPY ) and NASDAQ ( QQQ ) have been on tremendous bull runs since 2023, there are three historically reliable warning signs emerging simultaneously that indicate that the market could be due for a significant correction in the near future.” AI Capex Boom Vs. The Dot-Com Bubble: The Striking Similarities And Three Big Concerns | Hawkinvest | 2/11/26 “Many major market indexes just hit new record highs, and earnings were strong this quarter. But, underneath all of this bullishness, there are some major concerns. This is espe...
In this video, I will go over the fourth-quarter activities of 10 super investors -- which stocks they bought and which they sold. I'll be talking about Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, Chuck Akre, Howard Marks, Pat Dorsey, and more. Watch the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below. *Stock prices used were from the trading day of Feb. 17, 2026. The vide...
In this video, I will go over the fourth-quarter activities of 10 super investors -- which stocks they bought and which they sold. I'll be talking about Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, Chuck Akre, Howard Marks, Pat Dorsey, and more. Watch the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below. *Stock prices used were from the trading day of Feb. 17, 2026. The video was published on Feb. 17, 2026. Continue reading
Wedbush argued that the current “AI threat” trade against software and cybersecurity was misplaced and compared it to previous disconnected technology fears that failed to play out. The broker reiterated 'outperform' ratings across its core large-cap artificial intelligence beneficiaries,...
Wedbush argued that the current “AI threat” trade against software and cybersecurity was misplaced and compared it to previous disconnected technology fears that failed to play out. The broker reiterated 'outperform' ratings across its core large-cap artificial intelligence beneficiaries,...
Alexandros Michailidis/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Whenever I think about the thesis for Pfizer Inc. ( PFE ), I can't help but ruminate over why the market has not shown much conviction despite PFE trading at valuations that are still undisputably close to the 10-year lows in PFE's history. While I'm not a Pfizer investor, I can still empathize with the bagholders who managed to ride the roc...
Alexandros Michailidis/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Whenever I think about the thesis for Pfizer Inc. ( PFE ), I can't help but ruminate over why the market has not shown much conviction despite PFE trading at valuations that are still undisputably close to the 10-year lows in PFE's history. While I'm not a Pfizer investor, I can still empathize with the bagholders who managed to ride the rocket ship towards the COVID highs and then followed the disastrous collapse before a bottom-out sometime in early 2025. Incidentally, PFE has managed to perform admirably since then. I guess the recovery across the healthcare sector has also benefited the stock, while it has also outperformed the S&P 500 ( SPX ) ( SPY ) since my last write-up by a fair distance. Recall that in my last update on PFE , I emphasized that the stock was still materially undervalued, and it still paid dividends that amounted to 7%. At the current juncture, it is closer to the 6.4% level, but still markedly more attractive than the healthcare median's 1.4%. Therefore, I think it is immensely clear that PFE is still well-positioned for further recovery if it manages to execute well. Now, of course, I do understand and appreciate that it is still a very big if. I don't think I need to remind you that the next five years could be one of Pfizer's most challenging in recent decades as it contends with the gamut of challenges pressing against a valuation re-rating narrative. These headwinds encompass the loss of exclusivity over the next couple of years, the ongoing revenue decline experienced in its COVID franchise, and also the need to convince the market that PFE has built credible growth optionalities in its most recent blockbuster M&A deals, which was also underscored by management in the Q4 earnings conference: 2026 is an important year in a pivotal investment period as we strive for industry-leading growth after several key products lose patent for regulatory exclusivity in the next few years. Sea...
Alistair Berg/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction The last time I covered Global Payments ( GPN ), I reiterated their Strong Buy rating, supported by strong fundamentals and results, while the company advanced on their three-way Worldpay deal while Elliott Investment Management reportedly took a position as well. With the deal now complete, a strong report released not long ago, and solid ...
Alistair Berg/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction The last time I covered Global Payments ( GPN ), I reiterated their Strong Buy rating, supported by strong fundamentals and results, while the company advanced on their three-way Worldpay deal while Elliott Investment Management reportedly took a position as well. With the deal now complete, a strong report released not long ago, and solid guidance, GPN remains in a very good position, standing to benefit from potential synergies, an international expansion of Genius, and potential macro improvements, while they continue returning a very attractive yield to us. Internal Developments Global Payments IR Although these full-year numbers are before the major transactions, we can see very solid results in Q4 and 2025 as a whole, with slight revenue growth (6% in constant currency ex-dispositions), margin improvements, and 11% growth in Adjusted EPS, while delivering $3 billion in Adjusted FCF, slightly beating the market’s EPS expectations and meeting them on revenue . Global Payments IR As a note, about a month ago, Global Payments completed the acquisition of Worldpay alongside the issuer solutions business divestiture, ahead of their initial expectations, adding a strong base of clients and partners and now serving over 6 million merchant locations across over 175 countries while also continuing the acceleration of Genius. Global Payments IR Regarding the guidance, GPN sees adjusted net revenue growth of ~5% excluding dispositions, with a ~150 basis points margin improvement and Adjusted EPS of $13.80 to $14.00 (vs. $13.78 consensus), meaning a very strong 13% to 15% growth. Meanwhile, they also expect over $2 billion in capital returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, including the $550 million in accelerated buybacks that they announced on the day of the Q4 release. For a roughly $20 billion market cap at the moment of writing this, that’s a ~10% combined yield, which remains very solid and fu...
primeimages/E+ via Getty Images Market Commentary Investors have much on their minds as we forge ahead into a new year, and it certainly may not feel like blue skies and clear sailing ahead. There are many things that could give investors pause, including the economy, interest rates, valuations, and geopolitics. Nevertheless, it’s hard to quibble with the overall performance of domestic equities a...
primeimages/E+ via Getty Images Market Commentary Investors have much on their minds as we forge ahead into a new year, and it certainly may not feel like blue skies and clear sailing ahead. There are many things that could give investors pause, including the economy, interest rates, valuations, and geopolitics. Nevertheless, it’s hard to quibble with the overall performance of domestic equities as we look back on the fourth quarter and the past year. Equities across investing styles and up and down the cap spectrum moved markedly higher, with most popular indexes delivering double-digit returns. The S&P 500 ® Index, 1 the proxy for the overall domestic stock market, printed new all-time highs in December and delivered a fourth quarter return of 2.7%, bringing the year-to-date return to 17.9%. What has been the catalyst for the march higher? Once the market digested the (improving) tariff news that temporarily roiled markets early in the year, all eyes became fixed on monetary policy. Investors waited patiently throughout most of 2025 for the Federal Reserve to finally pivot to a more accommodative policy stance, and in September the Fed began a new rate-cut cycle with a modest quarter-point cut. Two more quarter-point cuts came during the fourth quarter in October and December, and investors were clearly in no mood to “fight the Fed.” Risk assets moved higher despite some lingering concerns with the economic backdrop. Employment growth in particular remains a sticking point, with total nonfarm payroll employment rising by just 64,000 in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate also continued moving higher, reaching 4.6%. Of course, sometimes bad news is interpreted as good news, at least according to markets. The troubling labor data seems to have given the Fed cover to lower the federal funds rate despite the fact that inflation remains above their preferred 2% target. That monetary easing, along with continued excitement f...
With prices already down by a whopping 36% from their all-time high of $121, the silver crash is in full swing. And investors who own popular exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV) have likely experienced an unexpected hit to their portfolios. Unfortunately, the decline looks set to continue. Let's explore why investor psychology and industrial demand dynamics co...
With prices already down by a whopping 36% from their all-time high of $121, the silver crash is in full swing. And investors who own popular exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV) have likely experienced an unexpected hit to their portfolios. Unfortunately, the decline looks set to continue. Let's explore why investor psychology and industrial demand dynamics could send silver prices even lower. Silver soared by around 144% in 2025, driven mostly by geopolitical uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump and his aggressive trade policies. The tariffs themselves don't directly impact the silver market, because precious metals are currently exempt from the levies. But the policy uncertainty has eroded trust in the U.S. and its currency, with the dollar index down 9.25% over the past 12 months. Continue reading
Building on a multi-year strategic retail partnership, Canadian Tire Corporation ("CTC" or the "Company") (TSX: CTC.A) today announced the next phase of its collaboration with Microsoft, with the development of a custom retail intelligence platform designed to help the Company better anticipate and serve the everyday moments that matter most to Canadians.
Building on a multi-year strategic retail partnership, Canadian Tire Corporation ("CTC" or the "Company") (TSX: CTC.A) today announced the next phase of its collaboration with Microsoft, with the development of a custom retail intelligence platform designed to help the Company better anticipate and serve the everyday moments that matter most to Canadians.
Bruce Bennett/Getty Images News JetBlue ( JBLU ) management said they are “super pleased” with the carrier’s performance in the first quarter and dismissed any meaningful impact from last month’s Winter Storm Fern despite widespread delays and cancellations. Speaking at the Barclays 43 rd Annual Industrial Select Conference, management said achieving break even or better operating margin is the co...
Bruce Bennett/Getty Images News JetBlue ( JBLU ) management said they are “super pleased” with the carrier’s performance in the first quarter and dismissed any meaningful impact from last month’s Winter Storm Fern despite widespread delays and cancellations. Speaking at the Barclays 43 rd Annual Industrial Select Conference, management said achieving break even or better operating margin is the company’s “number one goal,” ultimately leading to positive free cash flow by 2027. JetBlue ( JBLU ) believes this goal can be reached with 3.5% revenue per available seat mile (RASM) growth and cost per available seat mile (CASM) limited to 2%. These targets mirror the company’s guidance in their most recent quarterly results, with CASM-ex-fuel forecasted to be between 1.0% and 3.0% in FY26, while adjusted operating margin was expected to at least break even or better. Separately, JetBlue ( JBLU ) is adding twice-daily non-stop flights between Houston and New York. Starting May 21, two flights per day will fly nonstop between Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport and New York’s JFK International Airport. More on JetBlue Airways JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript JetBlue Airways Corporation 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation JetBlue: No Margin Of Safety JetBlue and United expand BlueSky partnership with reciprocal booking, perks Top Quant rated bullish mid cap stocks among companies with high short interest
Earnings Call Insights: LCI Industries (LCII) Q4 2025 Management View Jason Lippert, CEO, opened by highlighting "strong results as our team continues to execute effectively, delivering a 16% year-over-year top line growth, along with further margin expansion in the fourth quarter." Lippert reported OEM segment net sales increased 18% to $737 million, with RV OEM revenue up 17%, attributing growth...
Earnings Call Insights: LCI Industries (LCII) Q4 2025 Management View Jason Lippert, CEO, opened by highlighting "strong results as our team continues to execute effectively, delivering a 16% year-over-year top line growth, along with further margin expansion in the fourth quarter." Lippert reported OEM segment net sales increased 18% to $737 million, with RV OEM revenue up 17%, attributing growth to market share gains, new product sales, and a favorable shift toward higher content units. The company expects to expand market share across all four OEM markets, emphasizing innovation as a central growth driver. Lippert noted, "our five most recently launched products are now generating an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $225 million," and highlighted the success of the Chill Cube air conditioner platform and the launch of the Sundeck patio system. Market share gains and content growth in North American utility trailer, bus, and marine OEM customers drove 21% year-over-year net sales growth in those areas, with bus-related content contributing $31 million. Integration of Freedman Seating and Trans Air is ahead of plan. In the aftermarket, net sales grew 8% to $196 million, supported by product innovations and growing repair cycle demand. Lippert described investments in service infrastructure, including new service facilities and an expanded mobile technician workforce, resulting in a double-digit increase in service completions. Lippert addressed a $50 million annual opportunity from a competitor's bankruptcy in the auto aftermarket, with existing capacity positioned to absorb incremental business. The company also transitioned to a 600,000-square-foot distribution center and announced a new manufacturing facility for Ranch Hands truck accessories. Lippert stated, "we delivered a full year operating margin of 6.8%, an improvement of 100 basis points year-over-year, driven by cost improvements, market share gains and enhanced operating efficiencies." Lippe...
World Labs, a startup from artificial intelligence pioneer Fei-Fei Li , raised $1 billion in a new round of funding to pursue a novel approach to AI development. Autodesk Inc. invested $200 million in World Labs as part of the round. Other backers include Andreessen Horowitz , Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. , World Labs said in a blog post Wednesday. World Labs is one of a growing nu...
World Labs, a startup from artificial intelligence pioneer Fei-Fei Li , raised $1 billion in a new round of funding to pursue a novel approach to AI development. Autodesk Inc. invested $200 million in World Labs as part of the round. Other backers include Andreessen Horowitz , Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. , World Labs said in a blog post Wednesday. World Labs is one of a growing number of AI developers focusing on so-called world models, which are meant to navigate and make decisions about the three-dimensional world. Yann LeCun ’s world models startup, AMI Labs, has also attracted significant interest from investors. Late last year, World Labs launched its first product, Marble , which it describes as a model that can create 3D worlds from image or text prompts. With the new funding, the startup is focused on improving applications for robotics and scientific discovery, among other categories. Li’s earlier work paved the way for many of the current innovations in AI. She was part of the team behind the academic project ImageNet, a database of millions of images that helped lead to advances in the ways computers recognize objects in images. The startup did not disclose a valuation. Bloomberg News previously reported the firm was in funding discussions at a valuation of about $5 billion.
subman/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) on Wednesday said it plans to open over 160 new branches in more than 30 states, and hire 3,500 employees across the country over three years. The banking giant said it plans to renovate about 600 locations in 2026. The move is part of a multibillion-dollar investment in its branch network announced in 2024 . The expansion is expecte...
subman/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) on Wednesday said it plans to open over 160 new branches in more than 30 states, and hire 3,500 employees across the country over three years. The banking giant said it plans to renovate about 600 locations in 2026. The move is part of a multibillion-dollar investment in its branch network announced in 2024 . The expansion is expected to enable the company to strengthen its presence in regions across the Northeast, Southeast, Heartland, and Southwest. More on JPMorgan Chase JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Presents at UBS Financial Services Conference 2026 Transcript JPMorgan: An Attractive Long-Term Idea For Income And Capital Gains JPMorgan Chase: Post-Earnings Weakness Is An Opportunity Most and least shorted financial stocks with market caps above $2B as of mid-february Fed proposes rules to bring mortgages back to the big banks
VEX Collective/iStock via Getty Images For most of the final quarter of 2025, the macroeconomic landscape was shaped as much by what investors couldn't see as by what they could. The U.S. government shutdown—lasting a record 43 days—created a significant information vacuum just as markets sought clarity on growth, inflation, and policy trajectories. Despite the data fog, the global macro backdrop ...
VEX Collective/iStock via Getty Images For most of the final quarter of 2025, the macroeconomic landscape was shaped as much by what investors couldn't see as by what they could. The U.S. government shutdown—lasting a record 43 days—created a significant information vacuum just as markets sought clarity on growth, inflation, and policy trajectories. Despite the data fog, the global macro backdrop proved “good enough” for risk assets. Global growth held firm, inflation stayed sticky but avoided more disruptive outcomes, and most central banks leaned more accommodative than hawkish. In the U.S., elevated downside labor market risk kept U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) easing in play, leading to rate cuts even as the economy expanded. However, policymaker dissents emerged as the Fed Funds rate approached the Federal Open Market Committee’s neutral estimate. International markets—particularly Japan and parts of Europe—offered broadly supportive signals, though political uncertainty occasionally weighed on European sentiment. Since mid-2024, most major developed market central banks have cut rates by 150-200 basis points (1.50%-2.00%) or more, meaning some could be close to the end of their easing cycle. The Bank of Japan remains on a separate trajectory with a gradual pace of rate hikes from a highly accommodative starting point, including two in 2025 and two more expected in 2026. Overall, the global tariff environment proved less disruptive than earlier fears. U.S. monthly tariff collections rose but remained well below levels implied by announced policies, while statutory rates edged lower as deals and exemptions took hold. Still, investors monitored persistent trade-related risks alongside other potential headwinds, including slower AI investment, labor market softening, bond market volatility tied to inflation or fiscal stress, and ongoing risk of geopolitical shocks. Financial markets capped a strong 2025 with 4Q gains across both equities and fixed income. Many fixed...