Nikada/iStock via Getty Images Market Overview The economy likely slowed in the fourth quarter U.S. gross domestic product ('GDP') growth was driven by robust household consumption and a narrowing trade deficit in the third quarter, but indicators suggested a slowdown in the fourth quarter. Survey data shows that the prolonged government shutdown dampened consumer confidence and spending. Recent t...
Nikada/iStock via Getty Images Market Overview The economy likely slowed in the fourth quarter U.S. gross domestic product ('GDP') growth was driven by robust household consumption and a narrowing trade deficit in the third quarter, but indicators suggested a slowdown in the fourth quarter. Survey data shows that the prolonged government shutdown dampened consumer confidence and spending. Recent trade balance improvements have supported GDP, but they likely reflect inventory accumulation from earlier in the year. As these inventories are drawn down, the trade balance should normalize, which could weigh on growth. Despite potential near-term weakness, we expect the economy to rebound in the second quarter of 2026 as fiscal and monetary stimulus begins reaching consumers and businesses. Inflation trends lower, for now Inflation, as measured by the U.S. Consumer Price Index ('CPI'), continued easing during the fourth quarter. However, the government shutdown caused disruptions in the data collection process that may have called its reliability into question. Looking ahead, core CPI is expected to remain below 3.0% over the coming quarters. That said, substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus entering the economy could spark a second wave of inflation later in the year. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to cut The recent softening in labor market data has allowed the Fed to continue lowering interest rates. We expect employment measurements, which are typically lagging indicators, to deteriorate further in the near term while core inflation remains below 3%. This could provide the Fed with justification for an additional rate cut in 2026. However, yields on U.S. 2-year Treasuries are roughly aligned with the effective federal funds rate right now, suggesting that markets do not anticipate further easing unless economic conditions weaken materially. Credit spreads remain tight The economy likely slowed in the fourth quarter, but credit spreads remain near historica...
80% Plunge In Immigration Is Reshaping Labor Market Math, But AI Wildcard Looms: Goldman The Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration has resulted in an 80% collapse in net immigration to the USA, and has fundamentally altered the mathematics behind the nation's labor supply to the point where the level of job growth needed to maintain economic stability is now far lower , according...
80% Plunge In Immigration Is Reshaping Labor Market Math, But AI Wildcard Looms: Goldman The Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration has resulted in an 80% collapse in net immigration to the USA, and has fundamentally altered the mathematics behind the nation's labor supply to the point where the level of job growth needed to maintain economic stability is now far lower , according to a new Goldman analysis. After a flood of more than 10.8 million illegal immigrants (official figure) entered the United States under Biden, net immigration - both legal and illegal - has gone from roughly one million people per year in the 2010s to around 500,000 in 2025, with a further drop to just 200,000 projected by Goldman for 2026. This has sharply reduced labor-force growth and lowered the economy's "breakeven" pace of job creation, the bank opines. Here's Goldman vs. Brookings vs. the Congressional Budget Office on net immigration: Now, the US will only need around 50,000 new jobs per month by the end of this year to keep the unemployment rate from rising, down from roughly 70,000 today . At the same time, Goldman says labor demand still looks "shaky" because job growth is narrow and job openings are trending lower - with the main downside risk being a faster, more disruptive AI-driven adjustment that could tamp down hiring or raise job losses beyond current estimates. Elevated deportations , tighter visa / green-card policies, a pause in immigrant visa processing that affects dozens of countries, and the loss of Temporary Protected Status for some groups, Goldman suggests there is additional downside risk to the workforce . A shakier demand picture Of course, new math on the labor supply doesn't mean the labor market is strong (duh)... In fact, Goldman describes demand as “shaky,” writing that job growth has become increasingly narrow - dominated by healthcare - and that job openings have continued to fall . Openings are now around seven million , below pre-pan...
Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS) is one of the 13 hot stocks to buy with the highest upside potential. On February 9, analyst Josh Baer from Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating on Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS), with a price target of $126. The analyst is bullish on the company’s lower total cost of ownership driven […]
Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS) is one of the 13 hot stocks to buy with the highest upside potential. On February 9, analyst Josh Baer from Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating on Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS), with a price target of $126. The analyst is bullish on the company’s lower total cost of ownership driven […]
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis I last wrote about Micron ( MU ) back in October with " The Business Model Is Shifting ," where I made the case that Micron had evolved from a cyclical memory company into a core supplier for AI infrastructure. The stock sat at $227.75 then and has since grown above $410, yet the fundamental story has only accelerated. Most Micron narra...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis I last wrote about Micron ( MU ) back in October with " The Business Model Is Shifting ," where I made the case that Micron had evolved from a cyclical memory company into a core supplier for AI infrastructure. The stock sat at $227.75 then and has since grown above $410, yet the fundamental story has only accelerated. Most Micron narratives focus on AI driving unprecedented memory demand, HBM being sold out through 2026, and the stock being cheap relative to the semiconductor sector, all of which I agree with. However, I also think that the story on its own is largely reflected in the stock's move from its 52-week low in the low $60s to current levels. Micron Price Growth YoY ( Seeking Alpha ) The reason I am upgrading Micron to a Strong Buy at current levels is what Micron is doing with the demand. I think the market is still underweighting how Micron is allocating its constrained supply and converting it into margins and cash flow. There are four reasons behind the upgrade, each of which creates room for earnings to exceed what consensus currently expects: where Micron directs its scarce output, how the cost structure is evolving, what is happening in storage, and a return catalyst that arrives in early 2027. High-Value Mix Shift In a supply-constrained environment, the most important strategic decision a memory company makes is not how much to produce but where to send what it produces. Micron management has been explicit about this. On the Q1 FY2026 post-earnings call , Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana confirmed that all segments are short. Aggregate demand across both DRAM and NAND is substantially higher than the industry's ability to supply, with some key customers receiving only 50% to two-thirds of their required allocation. That shortfall is industry-wide, not Micron-specific. What matters here is how Micron is responding to it. Rather than distributing output evenly across markets, the comp...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis I last wrote about Micron ( MU ) back in October with " The Business Model Is Shifting ," where I made the case that Micron had evolved from a cyclical memory company into a core supplier for AI infrastructure. The stock sat at $227.75 then and has since grown above $410, yet the fundamental story has only accelerated. Most Micron narra...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis I last wrote about Micron ( MU ) back in October with " The Business Model Is Shifting ," where I made the case that Micron had evolved from a cyclical memory company into a core supplier for AI infrastructure. The stock sat at $227.75 then and has since grown above $410, yet the fundamental story has only accelerated. Most Micron narratives focus on AI driving unprecedented memory demand, HBM being sold out through 2026, and the stock being cheap relative to the semiconductor sector, all of which I agree with. However, I also think that the story on its own is largely reflected in the stock's move from its 52-week low in the low $60s to current levels. Micron Price Growth YoY ( Seeking Alpha ) The reason I am upgrading Micron to a Strong Buy at current levels is what Micron is doing with the demand. I think the market is still underweighting how Micron is allocating its constrained supply and converting it into margins and cash flow. There are four reasons behind the upgrade, each of which creates room for earnings to exceed what consensus currently expects: where Micron directs its scarce output, how the cost structure is evolving, what is happening in storage, and a return catalyst that arrives in early 2027. High-Value Mix Shift In a supply-constrained environment, the most important strategic decision a memory company makes is not how much to produce but where to send what it produces. Micron management has been explicit about this. On the Q1 FY2026 post-earnings call , Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana confirmed that all segments are short. Aggregate demand across both DRAM and NAND is substantially higher than the industry's ability to supply, with some key customers receiving only 50% to two-thirds of their required allocation. That shortfall is industry-wide, not Micron-specific. What matters here is how Micron is responding to it. Rather than distributing output evenly across markets, the comp...
Apple’s AI story just got a lot more concrete, and the stock is already reacting. Shares of Apple rose after investors latched onto reports that the company is accelerating work on three new AI‑driven wearables built around Siri: smart glasses, a small pendant, and camera‑equipped AirPods. “$AAPL ...
Apple’s AI story just got a lot more concrete, and the stock is already reacting. Shares of Apple rose after investors latched onto reports that the company is accelerating work on three new AI‑driven wearables built around Siri: smart glasses, a small pendant, and camera‑equipped AirPods. “$AAPL ...
Earnings Call Insights: Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Q4 2025 Management View Brian Mueller, Chairman & CEO, reported that "GCE had another strong quarter, producing online enrollment growth of 8.7% and hybrid growth, excluding the closed sites and those in teach-out of 18.7%." He noted GCU now has 25,000 students on campus and more students living in university-owned housing than any other univer...
Earnings Call Insights: Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Q4 2025 Management View Brian Mueller, Chairman & CEO, reported that "GCE had another strong quarter, producing online enrollment growth of 8.7% and hybrid growth, excluding the closed sites and those in teach-out of 18.7%." He noted GCU now has 25,000 students on campus and more students living in university-owned housing than any other university in the country. Mueller highlighted that GCE and partners have built 47 hybrid campuses nationwide, addressing workforce shortages in healthcare and recently expanded to construction and manufacturing fields. AI integration was emphasized, with dozens of products implemented across academic and operational areas to enhance scale and student outcomes. Mueller outlined that new online starts were up in the mid-single digits, with total enrollment growth of 8.7%, exceeding long-term objectives. He signaled challenging comps in early 2026 but said, "we are rolling out some new programs in the second quarter of this year that we are very excited about that we believe will allow us to continue to grow total enrollment at or slightly above our long-term objectives." Traditional on-campus enrollment was flat year-over-year, with "new traditional campus enrollments... up in the high single digits and total traditional campus enrollments... down slightly year-over-year in the fall of 2025, while total GCU ground enrollment was flat year-over-year." Mueller attributed this to FAFSA issues and higher-than-expected summer graduations but stated that registrations for fall 2026 are "significantly ahead of last year." Hybrid campus enrollment increased 16.6% year-over-year, or 18.7% excluding closed or teach-out sites. Mueller said, "Our goal is still to have 80 locations with our partners with 40 locations being GCU locations," but noted a slowdown in new site openings for 2026 and greater selectivity based on market scalability. Mueller reported service revenue of $308.1 million fo...
Earnings Call Insights: TrueBlue, Inc. (TBI) Q4 2025 Management View Taryn Owen, CEO, stated TrueBlue executed on its strategic priorities in 2025, restructuring the business model to expand sales capability, unlock growth opportunities, and improve profitability while tightly managing costs. Owen reported, "We launched an enterprise-wide strategic partnership with a leading group purchasing organ...
Earnings Call Insights: TrueBlue, Inc. (TBI) Q4 2025 Management View Taryn Owen, CEO, stated TrueBlue executed on its strategic priorities in 2025, restructuring the business model to expand sales capability, unlock growth opportunities, and improve profitability while tightly managing costs. Owen reported, "We launched an enterprise-wide strategic partnership with a leading group purchasing organization, unlocking new client acquisition channels and fueling a growing pipeline of multi-brand opportunities across our portfolio. This partnership has led to approximately $15 million of annualized new business wins and continues to build momentum as we expand the relationship into new sectors." Owen noted, "Our energy sector revenue grew 60%, while our commercial driver business continued to outperform the broader market, delivering its second consecutive year of double-digit growth." On the technology front, Owen said, "We've made significant progress enhancing the capabilities of our digital ecosystem with advancements that include embedded AI-powered job matching, predictive analytics and behavioral insights across the talent life cycle. Recently, we launched an AI-enabled bill rate feature within our JobStack app that provides personalized data-driven bill rates in seconds." Carl Schweihs, CFO, stated, "Total revenue for the quarter was $418 million, up 8% and near the high end of our outlook range. Organic revenue increased 5%, with the acquired HSP business contributing 3 percentage points of growth." Schweihs added, "We successfully reduced SG&A by 11%, even while revenue grew 8% for the quarter. This improved leverage demonstrates our continued commitment to managing costs and delivering enhanced profitability." Owen addressed Board changes: "In early 2026, we welcomed 2 highly-qualified independent directors with deep operational and commercial experience and announced that 2 current directors would step down at or before our 2026 Annual Meeting." Outlook Schwe...
Applovin (NASDAQ: APP) enjoyed a surge of investor interest on Wednesday, as one of its key subsidiaries published quite an encouraging report on developments in mobile apps. With that tailwind at its back, the adtech specialist's stock surged, and by the end of the day, Applovin's stock had risen by more than 7%. Adjust, Applovin's measurement and analytics subsidiary, published its annual Mobile...
Applovin (NASDAQ: APP) enjoyed a surge of investor interest on Wednesday, as one of its key subsidiaries published quite an encouraging report on developments in mobile apps. With that tailwind at its back, the adtech specialist's stock surged, and by the end of the day, Applovin's stock had risen by more than 7%. Adjust, Applovin's measurement and analytics subsidiary, published its annual Mobile App Trends report before market open that day. It found that worldwide installs of such software rose by 10% year over year in 2025. Meanwhile, sessions with such apps increased by 7%. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
(RTTNews) - Ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, the Singapore stock market ticked higher again, one session after ending the four-day winning streak in which it had climbed more than 80 points or 1.8 percent. The Straits Times Index now sits just beneath the 4,940-point plateau
(RTTNews) - Ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, the Singapore stock market ticked higher again, one session after ending the four-day winning streak in which it had climbed more than 80 points or 1.8 percent. The Straits Times Index now sits just beneath the 4,940-point plateau
Phison is one of the leading makers of controller chips for SSDs and other flash memory devices - and CEO Pua Khein-Seng has now become a leading voice for just how bad the RAM shortage might get. Companies may need to cut back their product lines in the second half of 2026, and some companies will even die if they can't get the components they need, he agreed, in a televised interview with Ninggu...
Phison is one of the leading makers of controller chips for SSDs and other flash memory devices - and CEO Pua Khein-Seng has now become a leading voice for just how bad the RAM shortage might get. Companies may need to cut back their product lines in the second half of 2026, and some companies will even die if they can't get the components they need, he agreed, in a televised interview with Ningguan Chen of Taiwanese broadcaster Next TV. While the interview's entirely in Chinese, friends of The Verge stepped forward to confirm parts of a machine-translated summary that's been making headlines. They also note, importantly, that it's the int … Read the full story at The Verge.
BBVA SA , Spain’s second-largest bank, plans to start a brokerage business in Japan as part of the firm’s global expansion drive, according to people familiar with the matter. The Bilbao-based lender aims to establish a local securities subsidiary by the end of the year, subject to approval by Japan’s Financial Services Agency , the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is pr...
BBVA SA , Spain’s second-largest bank, plans to start a brokerage business in Japan as part of the firm’s global expansion drive, according to people familiar with the matter. The Bilbao-based lender aims to establish a local securities subsidiary by the end of the year, subject to approval by Japan’s Financial Services Agency , the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. That would make it the first Spanish firm to operate a brokerage house in the Asian economy. BBVA and its larger Spanish rival Banco Santander SA are working to strengthen investment banking operations as they seek to balance business models that focus on serving retail clients. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, as the lender is formally known, posted a record €6.6 billion ($7.8 billion) in revenue at its Corporate and Investment Banking unit last year and is aiming to double the total from 2024 levels by 2029. The planned subsidiary will target regional banks and insurers, among other potential institutional clients in Japan, the people said. It will seek to tap Japanese demand for investments tied to US project finance loans — an area where the Spanish lender has been expanding — in addition to euro-zone bonds and products linked to Latin America, they added. A representative for BBVA declined to comment. BBVA, SGX FX Ink Deal to Expand Latin America Currency Trading BBVA Taps HSBC Banker Campos to Lead Hedge Fund Coverage in US BBVA to Name Calvo as Head of UK CIB in Investment Bank Push The entry of major foreign firms could bolster efforts by Japanese policymakers to remake Tokyo as an Asian financial hub to rival Singapore and Hong Kong. Longbridge Group, a Singapore-based online brokerage startup, is also looking to enter the Japanese market this year to capitalize on a retail investment boom. Bank of Montreal has been hiring senior bankers to expand its brokerage business in Tokyo. BBVA has operated a commercial banking business in Japan since 2005 and is t...