BrasilNut1/iStock via Getty Images The difference between how foreigners and locals view Brazil ( EWZ ) ( FLBR ) is completely different. As a local, you often end up putting the brakes on riskier investments because you know that in Brazil, complexity is high, political risks weigh heavily, and you may even miss out on opportunities because of this. Meanwhile, foreigners who are not so involved i...
BrasilNut1/iStock via Getty Images The difference between how foreigners and locals view Brazil ( EWZ ) ( FLBR ) is completely different. As a local, you often end up putting the brakes on riskier investments because you know that in Brazil, complexity is high, political risks weigh heavily, and you may even miss out on opportunities because of this. Meanwhile, foreigners who are not so involved in day-to-day life tend to underestimate the risks a little, in my view. Of course, since much of the capital flow from investments in Brazil is driven by foreign investors, their opinion matters a lot, and even when they are “wrong,” they can often be right. The most interesting thing is that with the rotation we are seeing, with capital leaving Mag 7s, often leaving the US in general, and going to emerging markets, the Brazil thesis is becoming even stronger, and the narrative that was previously negative is beginning to become positive. The Bull Case For Foreign Investors Before I tell you the various reasons why a bull scenario is forming for the Brazilian stock market, we need to be aware of a couple of things first. During the pandemic, there was a lot of talk about the “party” (or, the celebration) of 200,000 points on the Ibovespa, which is the main stock index, that is, it was an important milestone for the stock market. But from 2019 to mid-2025, the Brazilian index remained flat, rising a little, falling a little, but very neutral in the end, and I think that shaped people's sentiment. I'm saying this because, in recent months, the index has performed very well, rising 53% in one year, and that's in BRL terms, not counting the devaluation of the USD, which would add more to this upside. I mean, even with the index close to the 200,000 mark, there is no optimism, no euphoria. Actually, it has been a very quiet bull market. There seems to be plenty of room for a bull market to really happen in the coming years. And this also depends on foreign investors. B3 ( BOLSY ...