The Iran Question Is All About China By Zineb Riboua, author of Beyond The Ideological Iran is most often discussed as a nonproliferation problem, a sponsor of terrorism, a regional spoiler. Each of these framings captures a real problem, but none captures what matters most. The nuclear file, the militia archipelago stretching from Lebanon to Yemen, the question of Gulf security architecture: thes...
The Iran Question Is All About China By Zineb Riboua, author of Beyond The Ideological Iran is most often discussed as a nonproliferation problem, a sponsor of terrorism, a regional spoiler. Each of these framings captures a real problem, but none captures what matters most. The nuclear file, the militia archipelago stretching from Lebanon to Yemen, the question of Gulf security architecture: these only acquire their full meaning when read against the backdrop of Chinese grand strategy. Beijing has spent years and billions of dollars building Iran into a structural asset. Everything that follows in the Middle East flows from this fact. Which is why Operation Epic Fury is the first American military campaign that threatens to sever that asset. By striking Iran directly, the Trump administration is dismantling, whether by design or by consequence, a pillar of China’s regional architecture. The urgency of saying so plainly has never been greater. In June 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a 12-day campaign of precision strikes that destroyed Iranian enrichment facilities, killed over 30 senior commanders and a dozen nuclear scientists , and drew the United States into direct strikes on 3 nuclear sites . The Islamic Republic’s deterrent mythology, cultivated over four decades, collapsed within a fortnight. In late December, the largest protests since 1979 erupted across all 31 provinces , fueled by economic freefall and a population that no longer believed in the regime’s strength . The government responded in January 2026 with massacres that killed thousands , prompting the European Union to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization and further increasing the isolation of the regime. By any conventional measure, the Islamic Republic is weaker than at any point in its history. Yet China was moving to put it back together. This week, it was reported that Tehran was close to finalizing a deal for Chinese-made supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles , weapons c...
Rising oil prices risk delivering a fresh inflation shock to Japan, complicating Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ’s efforts to ease cost-of-living pressures, according to Monex Group’s Jesper Koll . If crude trades in a $100 to $120 per barrel range in the coming months, it would amount to a “supply shock” that could add close to half a percentage point to Japan’s consumer inflation, said Koll, expe...
Rising oil prices risk delivering a fresh inflation shock to Japan, complicating Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ’s efforts to ease cost-of-living pressures, according to Monex Group’s Jesper Koll . If crude trades in a $100 to $120 per barrel range in the coming months, it would amount to a “supply shock” that could add close to half a percentage point to Japan’s consumer inflation, said Koll, expert director at the Tokyo-based firm, in a Bloomberg TV interview Monday. Bloomberg Economics estimates that crude may go to $108 per barrel if the Iran conflict intensifies, more oil infrastructure is struck and the Strait of Hormuz is closed. That would put the agenda of Takaichi at risk “because she has promised the Japanese people that she would bring energy and food inflation down,” he said. Higher fuel costs would widen Japan’s trade deficit and amplify imported inflation with Japan being a significant net oil importer, potentially adding further pressure on the already-weak yen. Read more: Oil Spikes as Widening Iran Crisis Disrupts Flows Through Hormuz The currency has fallen about 0.4% against the dollar over the past three months, the worst performance among its Group-of-10 peers. While Takaichi’s resounding lower house election victory last month briefly supported the yen, the currency has since come under renewed pressure following reports that she is wary of further interest-rate hikes and after her nomination of two dovish Bank of Japan board members. An oil-driven price surge would also complicate the BOJ’s policy path. Such a shock “is to say that the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates is actually the wrong policy measure,” Koll said, arguing that additional fiscal support for households may be needed instead, a step that could inject further uncertainty into markets. Markets are already debating whether the central bank will face increased political pressure as it moves to normalize policy, even as Governor Kazuo Ueda appears committed to doing so. Overnigh...