President Trump warns strikes on Iran could last weeks — and tells Tehran to stand down. Oil surges the most in four years as tanker traffic stalls in the Strait of Hormuz and a key Saudi refinery shuts down. As tensions escalate, inflation fears roar back — piling new pressure onto markets already on edge. We break down the geopolitical fallout, the market shockwaves, and the rising cyber and AI ...
President Trump warns strikes on Iran could last weeks — and tells Tehran to stand down. Oil surges the most in four years as tanker traffic stalls in the Strait of Hormuz and a key Saudi refinery shuts down. As tensions escalate, inflation fears roar back — piling new pressure onto markets already on edge. We break down the geopolitical fallout, the market shockwaves, and the rising cyber and AI risks tied to the conflict. (Source: Bloomberg)
Conflict-related betting on prediction markets hit a record last week as traders piled into wagers on the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, while blockchain analysts flagged suspicious activity and lawmakers called for a crackdown. Bettors placed $425.4 million in wagers on geopolitics questions on Polymarket in the week ending March 1, up from $163.9 million the week before, according to user-compiled ...
Conflict-related betting on prediction markets hit a record last week as traders piled into wagers on the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, while blockchain analysts flagged suspicious activity and lawmakers called for a crackdown. Bettors placed $425.4 million in wagers on geopolitics questions on Polymarket in the week ending March 1, up from $163.9 million the week before, according to user-compiled data on Dune Analytics. Across the site, total wagering reached a record $2.4 billion, up from $1.8 billion a week earlier. The growth comes as critics question the legality and ethics of betting on military conflict. US regulations are broadly understood to prohibit financial contracts tied to war, but Polymarket’s main exchange operates offshore and outside the oversight of US regulators. After US and Israeli bombs fell on Iran on Saturday, blockchain researchers pointed to several Polymarket accounts whose trading showed signs consistent with suspected advance knowledge of the attacks. Prediction markets have become more popular over the past year in large part because they offer a new way to bet on sports and crypto prices. Those remain the largest categories on Polymarket and Kalshi, but both companies have long promoted them as a venue for making trades on politics and global events. Geopolitics made up about 18% of all wagering on Polymarket last week, up from roughly 9% just a week earlier. Read More: Polymarket Iran Bets Hit $529 Million as New Wallets Win Big Nine of the 10 most-traded geopolitics markets last week were tied to Iran, according to blockchain data. Contracts linked to the timing of US strikes on Iran dominated the list, with each drawing between $53 million and $8 million in volume. The most active geopolitics market asked whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be out as Iran’s supreme leader by Feb. 28. That contract drew $84 million in volume on Polymarket during the week, out of $104 million total. Khamenei was killed over the weekend. Polymarket d...
Qatar’s Ministry of Defense said its air force downed two Iranian Su-24 jets, the first crewed aircraft from the Islamic Republic known to be destroyed in combat since fighting began last week. Many of Iran’s bombers have been destroyed on the ground during early airstrikes meant to hamper Tehran’s ability to protect itself. Although Iran struck targets around the region with waves of drones and b...
Qatar’s Ministry of Defense said its air force downed two Iranian Su-24 jets, the first crewed aircraft from the Islamic Republic known to be destroyed in combat since fighting began last week. Many of Iran’s bombers have been destroyed on the ground during early airstrikes meant to hamper Tehran’s ability to protect itself. Although Iran struck targets around the region with waves of drones and ballistic missiles, it hadn’t attempted an attack with air-launched weapons so far. Drones hit a QatarEnergy facility in Ras Laffan, prompting the company to halt liquefied natural gas production there. Prices in Europe surged. Qatar didn’t say what weapons the Su-24s may have been armed with, but Iran may operate cruise missiles of unknown capability, according to International Institute of Strategic Studies data. The fate of each plane’s two-person crew wasn’t disclosed. The Soviet-era Su-24 is a supersonic strike aircraft that can carry as much as 17,000 pounds of weapons. Iran’s air force only had 29 operational before the war, IISS data show. None of its combat aircraft have downed US or Israeli aircraft in the conflict. “Israel and the US have air supremacy,” said Sascha Bruchmann of the IISS. “Thus far, neither the US nor Israel have had any significant losses that will affect their will or capability to sustain a campaign against Iran.” However, three US fighter jets crashed after being mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses, though all six aircrew ejected safely. The Qatari government also said that it had intercepted seven ballistic missiles and five drones.
AlexSecret/E+ via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from the Artisan International Small-Mid Fund Q4 2025 Commentary. Throughout our 14 years of managing an international small-mid company portfolio, which now includes 7 years at Artisan Partners, the information technology (IT) sector has provided a fertile hunting ground for identifying small companies on their journey to becoming...
AlexSecret/E+ via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from the Artisan International Small-Mid Fund Q4 2025 Commentary. Throughout our 14 years of managing an international small-mid company portfolio, which now includes 7 years at Artisan Partners, the information technology (IT) sector has provided a fertile hunting ground for identifying small companies on their journey to becoming large, globally relevant industry leaders. Today, we continue to find idiosyncratic opportunities across both the software and hardware segments of tech, despite their contradictory extremes in current market sentiment. Our approach to hardware investing has always been conservative. Although many wonderful hardware businesses can experience periods of significant upcycles, the industry is generally transactional, and spending levels often vary considerably, resulting in cyclicality. The hardware industry also tends to be asset-heavy and price-competitive, which is why companies have historically traded at a discount. To mitigate these risks when investing in hardware, we look for companies with long-term contracts and asset-light business models, as well as those at the cutting edge of shifting technology, which limits the risk of disintermediation. One example is Fabrinet, which largely operates "take or pay" contracts, performs light assembly and takes no inventory risk. The company is at the leading edge of networking technology in optical components. We believe the current supercycle has stretched valuations for many companies displaying commodity-like characteristics. This makes us wary of a scenario in which any sign of the wave cresting will reveal a lack of resiliency and trigger significant re-ratings downward. Weaker companies chasing this build-out will likely be left with underutilized capacity, overextended balance sheets and pricing pressure due to excess inventory. Further, these risks are typically more acute for smaller companies, which are often price ta...
The United Nations nuclear watchdog said military action alone won’t be able to resolve ambiguity over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “At some point, this will come to an end,” International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in an interview with Bloomberg TV . “When that happens, you will still have a question mark. We will have to go back to the negotiating table.” With ...
The United Nations nuclear watchdog said military action alone won’t be able to resolve ambiguity over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “At some point, this will come to an end,” International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in an interview with Bloomberg TV . “When that happens, you will still have a question mark. We will have to go back to the negotiating table.” With the IAEA’s board meeting this week in Vienna, Grossi said earlier in the day he was frustrated by the collapse of diplomacy with Iran. He’d met with envoys from Iran and the US the week before in an effort to avert military action. The career diplomat from Argentina reiterated that the majority of airstrikes over the last three days didn’t concentrate on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Satellite images reviewed by the IAEA indicate that only Iran’s uranium-enrichment site in Natanz showed indications of new damage, Grossi said. The IAEA chief reiterated “frustration” with the failure of diplomacy in Iran. He pointed to proposals he’d floated to limit Iran’s nuclear program that had “started to acquire some momentum” before hostilities began. “We are, quite understandably, feeling a strong sense of frustration,” Grossi told the IAEA’s board earlier, while urging all sides in the conflict to exercise the “utmost restraint.”
This edition of Rule Breaker Investing digs in on: To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center . When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy . A full transcript is below. Continue reading
This edition of Rule Breaker Investing digs in on: To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center . When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy . A full transcript is below. Continue reading
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) may rank among the top semiconductor companies in the age of artificial intelligence, with AMD stock having more than doubled in value over the past 52 weeks. However, the security has gotten off to an uncharacteristically poor start to the new year, losing roughly 7%. Adding to some of the skepticism, the Barchart Technical Opinion indicator rates AMD as a 24% Weak Se...
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) may rank among the top semiconductor companies in the age of artificial intelligence, with AMD stock having more than doubled in value over the past 52 weeks. However, the security has gotten off to an uncharacteristically poor start to the new year, losing roughly 7%. Adding to some of the skepticism, the Barchart Technical Opinion indicator rates AMD as a 24% Weak Sell. Fundamentally, much of the concern appears tied to growing anxieties of an AI bubble. Further, while machine learning has accelerated productivity across the board, there are also worries that most of the recent economic gains have been concentrated within a few elite tech companies. With such an unbalanced mix of sectors participating in the wealth creation story, the threat of a bubble bursting looms larger. More News from Barchart It may be no coincidence, then, that the options market has been lighting up, especially for hot names like AMD stock. One noteworthy stat to consider is options flow, which focuses exclusively on big block transactions likely placed by institutional investors. In the back half of February, options flow has noticeably turned pessimistic, with several transactions showcasing potential downward intent. For example, on Feb. 19, net trade sentiment slipped to almost $160 million below parity, with total gross bearish volume reaching $201.83 million in the red. Further, the last four business days of February saw net negative trades, with most transactions representing debit-based put options. With debits, a trader is paying that premium, which gives them the right to speculate on a directional outcome. For the puts to be profitable, then, AMD stock must fall to a defined threshold; otherwise, the debit is likely to be lost. Unless the smart money is in the business of throwing capital away, the negative options flow appear to represent a subtle signal that the pros are becoming more cautious about AMD stock. Using the Volatility Skew as a Direc...
Solskin/DigitalVision via Getty Images I reiterated a ‘buy’ rating on Thermo Fisher Scientific ( TMO ) on August 6, 2025, highlighting its business strength in the pharma and biotech markets. The company delivered 3% organic revenue growth in Life Science Solutions in FY25, demonstrating a gradual recovery in the broader biotech and pharmaceutical industries. I favor the company’s acquisition of C...
Solskin/DigitalVision via Getty Images I reiterated a ‘buy’ rating on Thermo Fisher Scientific ( TMO ) on August 6, 2025, highlighting its business strength in the pharma and biotech markets. The company delivered 3% organic revenue growth in Life Science Solutions in FY25, demonstrating a gradual recovery in the broader biotech and pharmaceutical industries. I favor the company’s acquisition of Clario Holdings, as it could further strengthen Thermo Fisher Scientific’s laboratory products and biopharma services. I reiterate a ‘buy’ rating on Thermo Fisher Scientific with a fair value of $619 per share. Thermo Fisher Scientific announced it would acquire Clario Holdings for $8.875 billion in cash on October 29, 2025, and anticipated closing the deal by mid-2026. I favor the deal for several reasons. First, Clario is one of the leading players in the clinical trial endpoint data solutions, supporting more than 70% of FDA drug approvals historically, according to the release. The trial data platform is mission-critical in the drug development process, in my view. As such, the business is highly recurring in nature, which could help Thermo Fisher Scientific generate sustainable revenue growth. Second, with Clario’s data resources across the drug development process, Thermo Fisher Scientific could potentially utilize AI to accelerate clinical research and provide pharma and biotech companies with data-driven insights. In January 2026, Thermo Fisher Scientific announced its partnership with NVIDIA ( NVDA ) to power AI technology in laboratory automation. I anticipate the company will continue partnering with AI vendors to enhance data analytics capabilities and business operations. Therefore, the acquisition of Clario lays a solid foundation for future AI applications. Lastly, Clario generated around $1.25 billion in revenue in 2025, and Thermo Fisher Scientific anticipated the business to grow at a high-single-digit rate, according to the release. As a result, the acquis...
In this article UAMY BA Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to reporters in a departure lounge before returning to Washington following meetings with Caribbean Community (CARICOM) leaders, at Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport in Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis, February 25, 2026. Jonathan Ernst | Reuters As the Senate returns late Mon...
In this article UAMY BA Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to reporters in a departure lounge before returning to Washington following meetings with Caribbean Community (CARICOM) leaders, at Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport in Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis, February 25, 2026. Jonathan Ernst | Reuters As the Senate returns late Monday and the House plans to reconvene on Tuesday, the White House is planning a series of briefings with members on the weekend attack on Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will brief congressional leaders on the war in Iran on Monday afternoon. On Tuesday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth , CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine will hold an all-Congress briefing, the White House confirmed on Monday. White House spokesperson Dylan Johnson on Monday said relevant congressional staffers had also been briefed. "Yesterday, the Department of War briefed the bipartisan staffs of several national security committees in both chambers for over 90 minutes on the military action in Iran," Johnson said in an email on Monday. Immediately after the attacks, which killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, bipartisan lawmakers called for briefings on the military action. Democrats, in particular, questioned the legality of the strikes, which were carried out without authorization from Congress. Read more U.S.-Iran news Follow CNBC's live coverage of the U.S. strikes in Iran Iran war prediction bets draw heat: ‘Insane this is legal’ Pro: U.S.-Iran war sparks market sell-off. When is it time to buy the dip? Iran strikes halt Qatar LNG output, shaking global energy markets Khamenei's death raises questions about Trump's China trip Defense stocks jump as U.S., Iran exchange attacks What travelers need to know after the U.S., Israeli strikes on Iran How Iran chooses its supreme leader, and who could be next? Iran conflict: Where things stan...