DNY59/iStock via Getty Images In today’s market, the Iran conflict has created great investment opportunities. However, too many investors are reacting, trying to anticipate these confounding military developments and trade on what is highly unpredictable. That is an unwise strategy, which is really speculation. Business news and brokerages want trading activity, but short-term trading is a flawed...
DNY59/iStock via Getty Images In today’s market, the Iran conflict has created great investment opportunities. However, too many investors are reacting, trying to anticipate these confounding military developments and trade on what is highly unpredictable. That is an unwise strategy, which is really speculation. Business news and brokerages want trading activity, but short-term trading is a flawed strategy. We believe investors should be positioning investments and strategies with great long-term potential at today’s excellent prices. We believe portfolio construction will benefit by the inclusion of emerging markets, commodities, precious metals, and weak dollar plays. The below should help guide portfolio construction based on the value of historic analogues. Market Cycles: The following chart shows inflationary and deflationary cycles based on inflationary trend data. We believe different periods are defined by different fundamental factors. The 1970s are well known for soaring gold and silver prices, a massive oil bull market, and a horrific US stock market. Likewise, the 1999 to 2009 period, is another inflationary period where gold, oil and emerging markets – China in particular – produced massive bull markets and contained two severe equity bear markets. We believe we are entering an inflationary cycle like the 1970s and the 1999-2009 period, and today’s unfolding inflationary cycle will show itself through a new pink section in the chart below that will persist for several years. Inflationary Deflationary Cycles since 1870 (longtermtrends.net) The Dollar: DoubleLine CEO Jeff Gundlach has been a believer in the commodity versus equity cycle theory since 2018. In the last year, he has stated that the new trigger in this investment cycle is a declining dollar. Our cycle work suggests that the dollar will be weak for years, just as we believe gold, oil, and emerging markets will be strong for the next decade. The chart below shows a bounce in the dollar consiste...
In a leafy Tehran park on Thursday, Iranians gathered for picnics on the final day of the Persian new year holidays, shrugging off US President Donald Trump’s threats to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages”. The country has been at war for more than a month and Trump – who launched the conflict alongside Israel on February 28 – has vowed to strike Iran hard for another “two or three weeks”. Powerful...
In a leafy Tehran park on Thursday, Iranians gathered for picnics on the final day of the Persian new year holidays, shrugging off US President Donald Trump’s threats to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages”. The country has been at war for more than a month and Trump – who launched the conflict alongside Israel on February 28 – has vowed to strike Iran hard for another “two or three weeks”. Powerful blasts shook the Iranian capital on Thursday. Still, hundreds of families sat out under mild,...
RudyBalasko/iStock via Getty Images AH Realty Trust’s ( AHRT ) forward outlook is slow and steady growth which warrants a higher multiple than the 10X forward AFFO at which it is trading. I think the market is misunderstanding the quality of AHRT’s assets as their asset level performance has been obscured by a complicated history. Specifically, 2 black swan events hit AHRT particularly hard, resul...
RudyBalasko/iStock via Getty Images AH Realty Trust’s ( AHRT ) forward outlook is slow and steady growth which warrants a higher multiple than the 10X forward AFFO at which it is trading. I think the market is misunderstanding the quality of AHRT’s assets as their asset level performance has been obscured by a complicated history. Specifically, 2 black swan events hit AHRT particularly hard, resulting in lost AFFO/share. The market is reading the losses as operating weakness and pricing AHRT stock well below the value of its well-performing assets. 2X Black Swan AHRT’s history is mixed with high levels of success followed by precipitous decline starting in 2020. SA AH Realty Trust’s history goes well beyond the left side of the above chart. It was a private company for decades before going public. They, like many private companies, used high leverage to fund developments. It was high risk and high reward, but it consistently paid off as their developments were repeatedly delivered on schedule and on or under budget. It resulted in a healthy growth CAGR as a private company and continued to work nicely as a public company until 2020. Then the pandemic hit. The COVID shutdown hit just about all REITs, but one of the challenges of high leverage, is that it amplifies sensitivity to external stimuli. The shutdown, which was otherwise a temporary shock, became a longer lasting hit as high leverage forced liquidating some retail assets. S&P Global Market Intelligence These assets were performing well aside from the depths of the shutdown. At the time, however, there was no way of knowing how long the pandemic shutdown would last and the ticking clock of leverage made disposing of assets the most prudent move. As the economy re-opened it was back to business as usual for AHRT. They commenced a new slate of developments, all of which were underwritten to the prevailing standards at the time. Spreads were normal, and many of their developments already had tenants lined up suc...
Evogene Ltd. ( NASDAQ: EVGN ) said on Thursday it had received a notice from the Nasdaq indicating that it had fallen out of compliance with Nasdaq Rule 5550(a)(2) after its shares had closed below $1.00 for 30 consecutive business days. The company said it had until September 28, 2026, to regain compliance, requiring its shares to close at or above $1.00 for at least 10 consecutive business days ...
Evogene Ltd. ( NASDAQ: EVGN ) said on Thursday it had received a notice from the Nasdaq indicating that it had fallen out of compliance with Nasdaq Rule 5550(a)(2) after its shares had closed below $1.00 for 30 consecutive business days. The company said it had until September 28, 2026, to regain compliance, requiring its shares to close at or above $1.00 for at least 10 consecutive business days within the 180-day period. If it had not regained compliance by September 28, 2026, Nasdaq would have notified it that its shares were subject to delisting. The company said maintaining its Nasdaq listing had remained a priority and that it had planned to consider options, including a potential reverse stock split, to regain compliance. Shares -3.16%. More on Evogene Evogene Ltd. (EVGN) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Evogene files for resale of 5.08M shares via warrant exercise Evogene outlines ChemPass AI-driven strategy and anticipates new collaborations amid organizational realignment Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Evogene Historical earnings data for Evogene
Three-time champion ‘out for extended period’ ‘It is the most special week. I will be watching’ Phil Mickelson has announced he will not compete at next week’s Masters due to an ongoing “family health matter”. The six-time major winner Mickelson, who won the Masters in 2004, 2006 and 2010, missed the first four LIV Golf events of the year and said he will remain “out for an extended period of time...
Three-time champion ‘out for extended period’ ‘It is the most special week. I will be watching’ Phil Mickelson has announced he will not compete at next week’s Masters due to an ongoing “family health matter”. The six-time major winner Mickelson, who won the Masters in 2004, 2006 and 2010, missed the first four LIV Golf events of the year and said he will remain “out for an extended period of time”. Continue reading...
In trading on Thursday, shares of Ferguson Enterprises Inc (Symbol: FERG) crossed below their 200 day moving average of $235.13, changing hands as low as $232.71 per share. Ferguson Enterprises Inc shares are currently trading down about 1.9% on the day. The chart below shows
In trading on Thursday, shares of Ferguson Enterprises Inc (Symbol: FERG) crossed below their 200 day moving average of $235.13, changing hands as low as $232.71 per share. Ferguson Enterprises Inc shares are currently trading down about 1.9% on the day. The chart below shows
In trading on Thursday, shares of Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund (Symbol: RQI) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $12.26, changing hands as high as $12.37 per share. Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund shares are currently trading up about 1.
In trading on Thursday, shares of Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund (Symbol: RQI) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $12.26, changing hands as high as $12.37 per share. Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund shares are currently trading up about 1.
In trading on Thursday, shares of Rogers Communications Inc (Symbol: RCI) crossed below their 200 day moving average of $36.25, changing hands as low as $35.00 per share. Rogers Communications Inc shares are currently trading off about 7.3% on the day. The chart below shows th
In trading on Thursday, shares of Rogers Communications Inc (Symbol: RCI) crossed below their 200 day moving average of $36.25, changing hands as low as $35.00 per share. Rogers Communications Inc shares are currently trading off about 7.3% on the day. The chart below shows th
In trading on Thursday, shares of Hanover Insurance Group Inc (Symbol: THG) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $174.73, changing hands as high as $175.75 per share. Hanover Insurance Group Inc shares are currently trading up about 1.6% on the day. The chart below sh
In trading on Thursday, shares of Hanover Insurance Group Inc (Symbol: THG) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $174.73, changing hands as high as $175.75 per share. Hanover Insurance Group Inc shares are currently trading up about 1.6% on the day. The chart below sh
In trading on Thursday, shares of Weis Markets, Inc. (Symbol: WMK) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $69.60, changing hands as high as $69.93 per share. Weis Markets, Inc. shares are currently trading up about 2.3% on the day. The chart below shows the one year per
In trading on Thursday, shares of Weis Markets, Inc. (Symbol: WMK) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $69.60, changing hands as high as $69.93 per share. Weis Markets, Inc. shares are currently trading up about 2.3% on the day. The chart below shows the one year per
In trading on Thursday, shares of Advance Auto Parts Inc (Symbol: AAP) crossed below their 200 day moving average of $52.89, changing hands as low as $51.48 per share. Advance Auto Parts Inc shares are currently trading off about 5.4% on the day. The chart below shows the one
In trading on Thursday, shares of Advance Auto Parts Inc (Symbol: AAP) crossed below their 200 day moving average of $52.89, changing hands as low as $51.48 per share. Advance Auto Parts Inc shares are currently trading off about 5.4% on the day. The chart below shows the one
In trading on Thursday, shares of AllianzGI Convertible & Income Fund II (Symbol: NCZ) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $13.76, changing hands as high as $13.84 per share. AllianzGI Convertible & Income Fund II shares are currently trading up about 0.7% on
In trading on Thursday, shares of AllianzGI Convertible & Income Fund II (Symbol: NCZ) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $13.76, changing hands as high as $13.84 per share. AllianzGI Convertible & Income Fund II shares are currently trading up about 0.7% on