Indonesia’s markets are likely to grapple with fluctuating sentiment when they reopen Wednesday after a week-long holiday, as investors weigh rapidly shifting headlines on the Iran war and persistent concerns over fiscal and governance risks. A US-listed exchange-traded fund tracking Indonesia’s stocks has slid about 2% since markets closed for Lebaran, the holiday marking the end of Ramadan. An A...
Indonesia’s markets are likely to grapple with fluctuating sentiment when they reopen Wednesday after a week-long holiday, as investors weigh rapidly shifting headlines on the Iran war and persistent concerns over fiscal and governance risks. A US-listed exchange-traded fund tracking Indonesia’s stocks has slid about 2% since markets closed for Lebaran, the holiday marking the end of Ramadan. An Asean stock gauge fell 1.8% during the break. Offshore rupiah forwards rose only about 0.3% higher despite the central bank’s intervention late last week to stem currency weakness, underscoring investors’ reluctance to price in relief. The moves suggest Indonesia’s cash markets will likely fluctuate amid Iran-war tensions, as President Donald Trump signals progress in Iran war negotiations even while deploying more troops to the Middle East. Elevated oil prices are adding to concerns after global ratings agencies cut the country’s credit rating outlook and MSCI Inc. warned of a potential downgrade of its market status pending reforms to improve liquidity. Oil prices have largely held firm, though they slipped Wednesday after Trump said Iran had offered a “present” as a show of good faith in negotiations. Inflation risks from elevated oil prices “complicate the policy backdrop, potentially raising the hurdle for regulators to push through proposed capital market reforms,” said Gary Tan , portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments in Singapore. Before the holiday, the Jakarta Composite Index was the world’s worst performer this year, sliding more than 20% from its January peak into bear market territory amid concerns over earnings and economic growth. The rupiah and Indonesian bonds have also come under pressure. The currency weakened past levels seen during the Asian Financial Crisis to hit a record low after the credit rating agencies flagged eroding fiscal and policy credibility. Investor sentiment worsened after a government official acknowledged it’d be difficult t...
Shares of Venture Global (NYSE: VG) rose on Tuesday, as analysts rushed to raise their price targets for the liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer. By the close of trading, Venture Global's stock price was up more than 5%. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
Shares of Venture Global (NYSE: VG) rose on Tuesday, as analysts rushed to raise their price targets for the liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer. By the close of trading, Venture Global's stock price was up more than 5%. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News California ( CVX ) may be headed for an energy crisis because of the Iran war, Chevron's ( CVX ) head of oil refining warned Tuesday, adding that the company may quit refining oil in the state unless officials roll back taxes and regulations. California is highly exposed to the war disruption rippling across commodity markets because it imports ~20% of its refined...
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News California ( CVX ) may be headed for an energy crisis because of the Iran war, Chevron's ( CVX ) head of oil refining warned Tuesday, adding that the company may quit refining oil in the state unless officials roll back taxes and regulations. California is highly exposed to the war disruption rippling across commodity markets because it imports ~20% of its refined fuels from Asia, and shipments from China, South Korea, Singapore, and elsewhere are at risk of slowing significantly, with the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz leaving Asian countries struggling to meet their own domestic demand. "We have refineries in Asia that are having to cut crude, and so they're going to make less products," Chevron's ( CVX ) oil refining chief Andy Walz said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston. "What if San Francisco doesn't have the jet fuel it needs? Or Los Angeles? Or maybe gasoline?" California is disconnected from fuels made in Texas and Louisiana, essentially making it an energy island, which is amplified by multiple refinery closures in the state in recent years due to higher costs caused by regulations designed to fight climate change and restrict oil industry profits. As a result, California consumers are more exposed than most other Americans to surging energy prices from the Iran war, paying an average $5.82/gal for gasoline, compared with a national average slightly below $4/gal, and diesel costs in the state reached the highest level ever , averaging $7.018/gal, according to the latest data from the American Automobile Association . California's problems are of the state’s own making, Walz said, as "California has decided that they’re going to rely on imports... It's a dangerous game." New emissions rules proposed by the California Air Resources Board , if implemented, could drive costs for the state's remaining refineries even higher; Chevron ( CVX ) has estimated the additional expenses could reach $500M wit...
Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images Key Takeaways Markets: Global equity markets collectively posted moderate gains in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a period of consolidation after the stronger advance seen in the third quarter. Contributors: Stock selection and an overweight in the health care sector, stock selection in the utilities sector and stock selection and an underweight in the co...
Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images Key Takeaways Markets: Global equity markets collectively posted moderate gains in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a period of consolidation after the stronger advance seen in the third quarter. Contributors: Stock selection and an overweight in the health care sector, stock selection in the utilities sector and stock selection and an underweight in the consumer discretionary sector contributed to relative performance for the quarter. Detractors: Stock selection and overweights in the industrials, materials and communication services sectors detracted from relative performance for the quarter. Outlook: We remain broadly constructive on the longer-term outlook for equity markets, but the strength of 2025's rally suggests that some caution is appropriate in the coming months. Performance Review Global equity markets collectively posted moderate gains in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a period of consolidation after the stronger advance seen in the third quarter. The fourth quarter unfolded against a backdrop of easing—but uneven—monetary policy expectations, greater stock-return dispersion across regions and sectors, and a rotation away from the most crowded growth investment themes. October experienced an extension of the post-summer stock rally as interest-rate cuts and generally resilient earnings supported risk appetite; November brought a pause as investors reassessed equity valuations and monetary policy timing; and December witnessed a stabilization of sentiment as central banks delivered broadly dovish outcomes while flagging increased data dependence into 2026. The fund (Advisor Class without sales charges) outperformed its benchmark, the MSCI All Country World Index-NR, for the quarter, driven by stock selection and an overweight in the health care sector, stock selection in the utilities sector and stock selection and an underweight in the consumer discretionary sector. Eli Lilly's shares rose during the quarte...
IRS Data Show Average Tax Refund Up Over 10% This Year Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times, The average tax refund is 10.8 percent higher this year when compared with the same time period in 2025, according to data released by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on March 20. The figures show that as of March 13, the average refund for individual filers for 2026 was $3,623, up from $3,271 ...
IRS Data Show Average Tax Refund Up Over 10% This Year Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times, The average tax refund is 10.8 percent higher this year when compared with the same time period in 2025, according to data released by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on March 20. The figures show that as of March 13, the average refund for individual filers for 2026 was $3,623, up from $3,271 from 2025. Around 69.7 million individual tax returns have been received by the IRS so far, the agency said, around 1 percent down from the same time period last year. An estimated 164 million taxpayers are expected to file this season, which started on Jan. 26 and will run through April 15. The release suggests that the average refund size has gradually declined over the past several weeks of filing updates released by the IRS. On Feb. 20, according to the figures, tax refunds increased more than 14 percent over the previous year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in January touted new tax cuts that were included under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year by saying they would lead to “substantial refunds” for families. “They’re [going to] change their withholding and have bigger take-home pay every two weeks, every month. So, it’s really an exciting time,” he said in a Fox News interview at the time. The tax refunds come as gasoline prices have surged to nearly $4 per gallon on average nationwide as the price for a barrel of oil has increased amid the U.S. war with Iran that started in late February. The average price of gasoline in America has risen by around $1 per gallon following the strikes on Iran, which prompted Iranian attacks on energy installations around the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the global oil supply. The release of IRS data last week comes as the agency announced there is still around $1.2 billion in unclaimed tax refunds for the year 2022, while it also estimated that the median refund fo...
An Iranian security worker monitors an area in phase 19 of the South Pars gas field in Assalooyeh, on Iran's Persian Gulf coast, on Aug. 23, 2016. Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty Images Oil prices fell more than 5% Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran are "in negotiations right now" and indicated Iran is keen to reach a peace agreement , despite the Isla...
An Iranian security worker monitors an area in phase 19 of the South Pars gas field in Assalooyeh, on Iran's Persian Gulf coast, on Aug. 23, 2016. Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty Images Oil prices fell more than 5% Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran are "in negotiations right now" and indicated Iran is keen to reach a peace agreement , despite the Islamic Republic denying any direct talks with the U.S. International benchmark Brent crude futures fell nearly 6% to $98.31 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were also down 5% at $87.65 per barrel. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said he had pulled back from his earlier threat to launch strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure "based on the fact we're negotiating." "They're talking to us, and they're talking sense," Trump said when asked to elaborate on the shift. Later Tuesday, The New York Times reported, citing two unnamed officials, that the U.S. had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war. According to the report, it remains unclear how widely the proposal, delivered through Pakistan, has been circulated among Iranian officials. It is also uncertain whether Israel, which is carrying out attacks on Iran alongside the U.S., would back the plan. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon The current disruption to oil supplies marks the largest shock in decades when measured as a share of global supply, Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research Daan Struyven said in a call with the media, underscoring the unusually high uncertainty facing markets. The bank noted that near-term price movements are being driven less by changes in the base case outlook and more by shifts in the perceived probability of worst-case scenarios. Crude is effectively trading on a geopolitical risk premium as investors hedge against prolonged disruptions and critically low inventories, Goldman said. The bank's base case assumes flows through the Strait of Hormu...
Australian inflation remained elevated in February, even before the Iran war disrupted Middle East energy supplies and sent the cost of gasoline soaring, highlighting persistent price pressures in the economy. The closely-watched trimmed mean gauge of consumer prices, which excludes volatile items, rose 3.3% last month from a year earlier versus economists estimate of 3.4%, data from the Australia...
Australian inflation remained elevated in February, even before the Iran war disrupted Middle East energy supplies and sent the cost of gasoline soaring, highlighting persistent price pressures in the economy. The closely-watched trimmed mean gauge of consumer prices, which excludes volatile items, rose 3.3% last month from a year earlier versus economists estimate of 3.4%, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday. The Reserve Bank aims for inflation at the midpoint of its 2-3% target band. From the prior month, the underlying measure rose 0.2%, compared with January’s 0.3% gain. The Australian dollar briefly slipped before erasing the move to trade around 70 US cents. The yield on policy-sensitive three-year bonds extended an earlier decline to trade as much as 13 basis points lower. Traders priced a 54% chance of an interest-rate increase in May, down from a roughly 60% chance prior to the inflation print. “Markets largely looked through the CPI as it predates the Iran conflict which is expected to drive a sharp lift in CPI fuel prices in the March release,” said Carol Kong , a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The RBA two weeks ago delivered its second consecutive rate increase to take the cash rate to 4.1% as it tries to cool price pressures. Governor Michele Bullock warned that inflation remains too high and that the board was worried about second-round effects from higher energy costs. Money market bets imply a solid chance of two more rate hikes this year. The inflation reading comes as energy markets have been thrown into turmoil by the US-Israeli attack on Iran, with hostilities now in a fourth week. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects a near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz — which connects the Persian Gulf to global markets — through mid-next month would push Brent to average $105 in March and $115 in April before easing to $80 by the fourth quarter. There are some tentative signs that the war may wind down soon. President D...
格隆汇3月25日｜一名联邦法官周二表示，美国政府针对人工智能公司Anthropic采取的行动，似乎是在对其进行惩罚，以报复该公司将其与五角大楼的合同纠纷公之于众。美国加州北区地方法院法官Rita F. Lin在一次法庭听证会中表示：“这看起来像是企图重创Anthropic。”她还说，这类行为“当然会违反宪法第一修正案”。此次听证会是Anthropic为寻求摆脱特朗普政府禁令而采取的法律行动的一部分...
格隆汇3月25日｜一名联邦法官周二表示，美国政府针对人工智能公司Anthropic采取的行动，似乎是在对其进行惩罚，以报复该公司将其与五角大楼的合同纠纷公之于众。美国加州北区地方法院法官Rita F. Lin在一次法庭听证会中表示：“这看起来像是企图重创Anthropic。”她还说，这类行为“当然会违反宪法第一修正案”。此次听证会是Anthropic为寻求摆脱特朗普政府禁令而采取的法律行动的一部分，该禁令禁止政府使用这家公司的AI模型。这家硅谷公司的律师和美国政府的律师在法官面前陈述了各自的论点。Lin法官尚未就此事作出裁决，但她在开场陈词中已对特朗普政府的行为表达了严重质疑。法官说：“看起来被告做得过火了，因为他们试图惩罚Anthropic。”本月，Anthropic起诉美国政府，要求停止将其列为供应链风险企业。这一认定使特朗普政府与这家行业领先的人工智能实验室之一陷入对立。这场争端的根源在于，双方对于其AI工具在国家安全应用中的使用方式及限制存在分歧。Lin法官要求获得更多证据，之后才会就Anthropic的禁令请求作出裁决。