Rawf8/iStock via Getty Images The bounce I've been warning that it's dangerous to have a macro short position in the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) in this headline-driven market because the stock market is now a matter of national security and thus vulnerable to short squeezes. That's what we got on March 31—nearly a 4% bounce in the Nasdaq 100 ( QQQ ) and nearly a 3% bounce in the S&P 500 ( SPY ). The trigge...
Rawf8/iStock via Getty Images The bounce I've been warning that it's dangerous to have a macro short position in the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) in this headline-driven market because the stock market is now a matter of national security and thus vulnerable to short squeezes. That's what we got on March 31—nearly a 4% bounce in the Nasdaq 100 ( QQQ ) and nearly a 3% bounce in the S&P 500 ( SPY ). The trigger: Trump signaled that “he might be willing to end the war without opening the Strait of Hormuz,” and the Iranian President suggested that “Iran would consider ending the war conditional on guarantees.” Both of these statements have been stated before; this is old news (part of negotiations as explained below), but the market took it as the reason to bounce. Thus, this bounce will be short-lived, and it's an opportunity to sell—with a lower risk of being “squeezed.” Tactically, the bounce could extend to the 200dma resistance. Yahoo The nightmare escalation scenario This is the macro context of the Iran war: The Strait of Hormuz is virtually closed, so 20% of global oil can't pass through, in addition to natural gas, fertilizers, and some other products. Thus, the global economy is facing a supply-driven oil price spike. In addition, the GCC regional energy infrastructure has been damaged, which points to longer-term effects, even after the war ends. Note, escalation could also cause Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait chokepoint in the Red Sea, further reducing oil supplies. On a macro level, higher oil prices will cause an inflationary shock. Thus, if inflation spikes, the Fed could be forced to hike interest rates, and 10Y yields would spike. The combination of higher oil prices, broad inflation, and higher interest rates would likely cause a global recession (stagflation). A recession with higher rates would cause 1) a housing bubble burst, 2) a private credit bust to become a systemic credit event, and 3) an AI bubble burst due to forced lower AI capex. In this n...
In this article @LCO.1 Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol gives a press conference in Brussels on March 6, 2026. Nicolas Tucat | Afp | Getty Images The coming month will see an intensification of the oil supply glut that has driven prices sharply higher since the start of the Iran war, according to the head of the Intern...
In this article @LCO.1 Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol gives a press conference in Brussels on March 6, 2026. Nicolas Tucat | Afp | Getty Images The coming month will see an intensification of the oil supply glut that has driven prices sharply higher since the start of the Iran war, according to the head of the International Energy Agency. Speaking to the "In Good Company" podcast hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Birol said the energy crisis sparked by the U.S.-Iran war was the worst in history. "The next month, April, will be much worse than March," he said. He explained that in March there were already some cargo ships carrying oil and gas that transited through the Strait of Hormuz before the war broke out. "They are still coming to ports, still bringing oil and energy and other [things]," he said. "In April, there is nothing. The loss of oil in April will be twice the loss of oil in March. On top of that you have LNG and others. It will come through to inflation, I think it will cut economic growth in many countries, especially emerging economies. In many countries the rationing of energy may be coming soon." U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that American forces would leave Iran "in two or three weeks," prompting a broad relief rally across financial markets. But Birol said the war, currently in its fifth week, had already created a deeper glut than those seen in previous crises such as those in the 1970s and following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "When you look at the [1973 and 1979], in both of them we lost each about 5 million barrels per day of oil. These oil crises led to global recession in many countries," he told Tangen. "Today, we lost 12 million barrels per day — more than two of these oil crises put together." He added that the gas supplies being lost as a result of the conflict and the blockade of the Strait ...
With controversy stalking football on the continent, the Caf president has a huge challenge on his hands It has been a miserable few months for the Confederation of African Football (Caf) and its South African billionaire president Patrice Tlhopane Motsepe. On Sunday he had chance to clarify a few things, to set the record straight. The CAF executive committee met at the Giza Palace hotel in Cairo...
With controversy stalking football on the continent, the Caf president has a huge challenge on his hands It has been a miserable few months for the Confederation of African Football (Caf) and its South African billionaire president Patrice Tlhopane Motsepe. On Sunday he had chance to clarify a few things, to set the record straight. The CAF executive committee met at the Giza Palace hotel in Cairo and journalists were present for the briefing that followed. Continue reading...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images One company that has had exceptional performance in the time that I have been bullish about it is aluminum producer Alcoa Corporation ( AA ). Back in July of 2024, I wrote a bullish article about the company. My opinion at the time was that the efforts that management was employing aimed at boosting profitability, on top of certain acquisitions and under...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images One company that has had exceptional performance in the time that I have been bullish about it is aluminum producer Alcoa Corporation ( AA ). Back in July of 2024, I wrote a bullish article about the company. My opinion at the time was that the efforts that management was employing aimed at boosting profitability, on top of certain acquisitions and underlying fundamental performance, justified market-beating upside. Since reaffirming it in that article as a 'buy' candidate, the stock has appreciated by 72.7%. That dwarfs the 16.9% increase that the S&P 500 saw over the same window of time. But that's nothing. Since I originally turned bullish on it in February of that same year, the stock has risen 162.8%. The market, meanwhile, is up only 28.7%. This year alone, shares of the business are up 24.8%. While in prior years the company was carried by strong fundamental performance, a lot of the recent upside can be attributed to geopolitical issues. So what we have here are two stories baked into one. You have a company that has demonstrated, over the last few years, fantastic operational performance and revenue growth. Plus, now you have a geopolitical catalyst that could prove even more bullish for shareholders. As great as all of this is, however, I will say that upside potential likely is more limited than it was in the past. I won't go so far as to downgrade the stock considering the opportunities that abound. I do think that it can outperform the market for the foreseeable future, but the degree of outperformance probably won't be as extreme as what we have seen in the past. One last thing that I would like to touch on, near the end of this article, is the fact that management will soon be announcing financial results for the first quarter of the company's 2026 fiscal year. Leading up to that point, analysts actually seem a bit pessimistic, with revenue and profitability likely to decline. While that is certainly possibl...
DragonImages/iStock via Getty Images Insmed Overview Having been active in covering key players in the PAH space, like Liquidia ( LQDA ) and United Therapeutics ( UTHR ), I was surprised to see how long it has been since I last covered Insmed ( INSM ). My last analysis followed the FDA-approval of Brinsupri (brensocatib) in Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis, or NCFB. Insmed was richly valued as i...
DragonImages/iStock via Getty Images Insmed Overview Having been active in covering key players in the PAH space, like Liquidia ( LQDA ) and United Therapeutics ( UTHR ), I was surprised to see how long it has been since I last covered Insmed ( INSM ). My last analysis followed the FDA-approval of Brinsupri (brensocatib) in Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis, or NCFB. Insmed was richly valued as it was. So, although I thought Brinsupri and Arikayce were, together, worth ~$17B in NPV, there was still $13B in value to account for (INSM's market cap was $30B at this time). That's where Insmed's pipeline comes in. I briefly touched on its once-daily treprostinil palmitil inhalation powder (TPIP) in PAH/PH-ILD (I'll discuss this more within this update). Insmed was also evaluating brensocatib in other conditions, like CRSsNP and HS. Although I thought that NCFB was likely brensocatib's "lowest-hanging fruit," especially as CRSsNP and HS have far more available treatments than NCFB. Although I admitted that, outside of M&A activity, it was "challenging to see where additional upside can come from," I decided to "hold my nose" through INSM's premium valuation and maintain a "Buy." INSM has advanced another 13.5% since, compared to S&P 500 ( SPY ) "gains" of -2.4%. Data by YCharts Below, I revisit INSM. Brinsupri Brinsupri has really impressed out of the gate. In Q4 alone, Brinsupri generated $144.6M in total revenues. And management expects a whopping $1B in Brinsupri revenues in 2026. This is an exceptional drug launch. It doesn't come as a surprise to me, though. As I've pointed out in the past, NCFB is an underserved condition. And Brinsupri is effectively the first and only disease-modifying therapy. My model of Brinsupri (at least, the end result) hasn't changed much since September, but I wanted to reiterate the opportunity. I assume a 10% WACC (standard for an approved drug), 2033 Peak, 2040 LOE, 500k US Target Pop., 2.5% annual Pop. Growth (increasing dx rates and ...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Akamai ( AKAM ) said that the state of Montana has awarded it a new data communications contract vehicle. The company noted that the agreement streamlines how state and local agencies, as well as educational institutions, can acquire its security and cloud computing solutions. "Government agencies and schools need immediate access to industry-leading clo...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Akamai ( AKAM ) said that the state of Montana has awarded it a new data communications contract vehicle. The company noted that the agreement streamlines how state and local agencies, as well as educational institutions, can acquire its security and cloud computing solutions. "Government agencies and schools need immediate access to industry-leading cloud and security tools without the administrative hurdles of traditional bidding," said Rob San Martin, vice president, public sector, Akamai. "We provide the essential cloud infrastructure and security architecture that both protects citizen data and helps enable government services for resilience, scalability, and performance." Akamai added that it will use its partnership with Carahsoft to fulfill orders and provide technical guidance to participating agencies. Shares of Akamai rose about 1% premarket on Wednesday. More on Akamai Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) Presents at Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026 Transcript Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) Presents at 47th Annual Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference Transcript Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Akamai in focus as Raymond James ups price target Akamai buys thousands of Nvidia GPUs for cloud infrastructure
Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha , iTunes , Spotify . Getty Images Good morning! Here's the latest in trending: Glimmer of hope: Iran needs guarantees as Trump signals end of war . The UAE wants Strait of Hormuz opened by force . Diverting resources: Oracle ( ORCL ) starts laying off employees to drive down costs to support ...
Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha , iTunes , Spotify . Getty Images Good morning! Here's the latest in trending: Glimmer of hope: Iran needs guarantees as Trump signals end of war . The UAE wants Strait of Hormuz opened by force . Diverting resources: Oracle ( ORCL ) starts laying off employees to drive down costs to support its AI infrastructure buildout. Project Apex: SpaceX ( SPACE ) has lined up at least 21 banks , including Morgan Stanley ( MS ), for its upcoming mega IPO. Artemis II NASA is set to launch the first crewed mission toward the moon in over half a century on Wednesday, as the U.S. seeks to reassert its dominance in space. The mission — dubbed Artemis II — will send four astronauts on an approximately 10-day journey closer to the moon than any human has been since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972. The launch: Artemis II is set to launch from Kennedy Space Center aboard NASA's Space Launch System rocket. "The rocket is healthy, the spacecraft is ready, the crew is in position, and the weather is looking good," NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman posted on X, saying Artemis II is on schedule to launch today evening. NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover and Christina Koch, along with Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen were selected for the mission. The astronauts won't land on the lunar surface, but will instead venture around the moon and back. They will be the first people that NASA's Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft carry into space. The mission: Orion, built by NASA and Lockheed Martin ( LMT ), is currently the only spacecraft capable of crewed deep space flight and high-speed return to Earth from the vicinity of the moon. The mission's aim is to test Orion's life-support systems, propulsion, navigation and communications to confirm readiness for deep space travel. "Artemis II science operations will lay the foundation for safe and efficient human exploration of...
Su Jiangbo. Photo: Datian public security bureau U.K. authorities are moving to confiscate 85 London properties worth more than 81 million pounds ($108 million) linked to a Chinese fugitive wanted for running an illegal cross-border online gambling syndicate. The U.K. Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) recently obtained an unexplained wealth order and an interim freezing order from the High Court aga...
Su Jiangbo. Photo: Datian public security bureau U.K. authorities are moving to confiscate 85 London properties worth more than 81 million pounds ($108 million) linked to a Chinese fugitive wanted for running an illegal cross-border online gambling syndicate. The U.K. Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) recently obtained an unexplained wealth order and an interim freezing order from the High Court against an unnamed Chinese national, giving him three months to prove the funds used to buy the properties were legitimate. Caixin has learned from sources with knowledge of the matter that the suspect is Su Jiangbo, a Fujian province native sought by Chinese police.
Welcome to India Edition, Bloomberg’s daily dive into what’s moving the worlds of business, markets and politics in this dynamic, fast-paced economy. I’m Shruti Srivastava , Bloomberg’s India Economy and Trade Reporter in New Delhi, filling in for Menaka. If you didn’t receive this directly in your inbox, you can subscribe here , and share feedback with us here . Today, I look at the upcoming firs...
Welcome to India Edition, Bloomberg’s daily dive into what’s moving the worlds of business, markets and politics in this dynamic, fast-paced economy. I’m Shruti Srivastava , Bloomberg’s India Economy and Trade Reporter in New Delhi, filling in for Menaka. If you didn’t receive this directly in your inbox, you can subscribe here , and share feedback with us here . Today, I look at the upcoming first anniversary of US President Donald Trump’s famous “Liberation Day.” Plus, soaring jet fuel prices. One Year On April 2 last year was a turning point of sorts for India, as President Donald Trump stepped into the Rose Garden of the White House to unveil the most extensive tariff barriers the US had seen in order to “make America wealthy again.” Marking the moment as “Liberation Day,” Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on dozens of nations including India, reshaping not only the global trade order, but also prompting Indian exporters to rethink their exposure to and reliance on their largest market. After almost a year of negotiations, India finally secured a trade deal with the US in February this year. Under the deal, Trump lowered tariffs to 18% — from 50% since last summer — for India, while in return, the South Asian nation agreed to buy $500 billion of American products and eliminate trade barriers on US goods, including agriculture, manufactured items, chemicals and medical devices. India was one of the last major economies to sign a trade deal with the US despite being one of the first nations to start trade talks with that country and Prime Minister Narendra Modi being among the first leaders to meet Trump after he took over the Oval office. The Modi government had initially offered significant concessions to the US, including on bourbon whiskey and high-end motorcycles made by Harley-Davidson, satisfying a longtime grievance of the US president. However, bilateral relations soured over India disputing Trump’s version of the South Asian nation’s ceasefire with Pakist...
Achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025 and near break-even $(0.29) million for the full year Advancements across business units, R&D, and clinical development to support scale and international growth
Achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025 and near break-even $(0.29) million for the full year Advancements across business units, R&D, and clinical development to support scale and international growth
MIAMI, April 01, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- RenX Enterprises Corp. (NASDAQ: RENX) today announced financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.
MIAMI, April 01, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- RenX Enterprises Corp. (NASDAQ: RENX) today announced financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.
Introduction I have spent more than a year making the case that we’re in a new investment regime. That’s an important part of my research, as I believe what worked over the past 10-ish years may not be what works going forward. That’s why I wrote articles like “Forget FANG - I’m Betting On ‘TOLL’ Stocks Instead.” Without reiterating that story again, it was about my preference for companies that a...
Introduction I have spent more than a year making the case that we’re in a new investment regime. That’s an important part of my research, as I believe what worked over the past 10-ish years may not be what works going forward. That’s why I wrote articles like “Forget FANG - I’m Betting On ‘TOLL’ Stocks Instead.” Without reiterating that story again, it was about my preference for companies that are built on hard assets (tough to disrupt by AI), have competitive advantages, low incremental capital intensity, and long-duration cash flows. One reason I put so much emphasis on these Big Picture developments is that I believe that if I get this even remotely right, I’m investing in the right area for at least a decade. That would be great for alpha. I also believe that in a changing environment with valuation challenges, we may be forced to make some changes to avoid falling for a bull trap. However, that doesn’t mean I’m going to give you the same TOLL lecture over and over again. While the core underlying concept will be brought up a lot, there’s a lot more to it, especially when it comes to ways to find the best investments. And that applies to both income-focused and growth investors. That’s the beauty of it. Today, I’ll discuss a core concept I have been working on for long-term capital deployment and provide some great picks (more food for thought) that fit this vision. So, let’s get to it! The Abundance Vs. Scarcity Investment I’m not a fan of software, as I have often said. While I’m not really looking to tell you all of that again, I kind of have to, as it’s such a great example of my thesis. As most of you may know, software was one of the drivers behind the successful tech trade over the past decade. That’s because the market was basically monetizing abundance, fully supported by global zero-interest-rate policies and secular growth from cloud computing (among other factors). Especially American companies had figured out how to monetize these tools and produc...
If you had invested in Meta Platforms ' (NASDAQ: META) IPO and held onto its shares since, you would have earned outstanding, market-beating returns along the way. However, with the stock worth $1.4 trillion (as of writing), does it still have enough growth fuel to perform well over the long run? Let's find out whether investing in Meta Platforms today could set you up for life. Image source: Gett...
If you had invested in Meta Platforms ' (NASDAQ: META) IPO and held onto its shares since, you would have earned outstanding, market-beating returns along the way. However, with the stock worth $1.4 trillion (as of writing), does it still have enough growth fuel to perform well over the long run? Let's find out whether investing in Meta Platforms today could set you up for life. Image source: Getty Images. Meta Platforms boasts a library of websites and apps, which includes Facebook, Messenger, WhatsApp, and Instagram. It is the leading player in the social media landscape with 3.58 billion daily active users as of the end of 2025. Meta Platforms' scale grants it a powerful moat from multiple sources, including the network effect. It has also made the company one of the dominant forces in digital advertising, where it generates most of its revenue. Over the years, Meta Platforms has improved engagement on its apps, notably by launching new interactive features and, more recently, thanks to artificial intelligence (AI)-powered algorithms. Continue reading