Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, says her firm is not “broad sellers of US equities here,” with “pockets where earnings can get better, not worse.” Zentner also sees an “uncomfortable” 40% chance of a US recession over the next 12 months. (Source: Bloomberg)
Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, says her firm is not “broad sellers of US equities here,” with “pockets where earnings can get better, not worse.” Zentner also sees an “uncomfortable” 40% chance of a US recession over the next 12 months. (Source: Bloomberg)
ankarb/iStock via Getty Images Co-authored with Beyond Saving In ancient Greece, major cities had an "agora," which was a public space where people were free to congregate. It served as a marketplace for people to trade goods and services and as a gathering point for public announcements, the military, religious ceremonies, and more. In many ways, an "agora" is no different from what might be call...
ankarb/iStock via Getty Images Co-authored with Beyond Saving In ancient Greece, major cities had an "agora," which was a public space where people were free to congregate. It served as a marketplace for people to trade goods and services and as a gathering point for public announcements, the military, religious ceremonies, and more. In many ways, an "agora" is no different from what might be called a "town center," "square," or "market." Every society has its public spaces where people get together for various purposes. What made the agora of ancient Greece distinct was the openness and popularity of philosophical and political debate. It was in those agoras that Socrates and Plato made their marks on the world. One of the things I love about the internet is that it allows for the spirited and open debate of ideas. The internet is our modern version of the agora, where we can seek out to challenge our ideas and honestly debate the merits of an issue. The issue I would like to submit for discussion today is "total return." It's a concept that many people love to talk about in the comment threads. It is a concept that I believe is routinely misapplied. Let's discuss. Total Return Vs. Dividend Investing Many love to argue that there is some difference between "total return investing" and "dividend investing." The reality is that there isn't. A dividend is total return. In fact, a dividend is realized total return. The total return of an investment is: Total Return = (Price you sell + dividends you collected) / price you paid If you sell at $15, collected $0 in dividends, and paid $10, your total return is 50%. ($15 + $0) / $10 = 1.5, a 50% gain. If you sell for $10, collected $5 in dividends, and paid $10, your total return is 50%. ($10 + $5) / $10 = 1.5, a 50% gain. If you sell for $8, collected $7 in dividends, and paid $10, your total return is 50%. ($8 + $7) / $10 = 1.5, a 50% gain. In all three scenarios, you invested $10 and received $15 in cash flow. Whether th...
Seeking Alpha (Seeking Alpha) Seeking Alpha (Seeking Alpha) Seeking Alpha (Seeking Alpha) Seeking Alpha (Seeking Alpha) More on Tilray Tilray: Big Bet On Beverages (Rating Upgrade) Tilray's Going To Be Great, But For Now It's A Hold Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) M&A Call Transcript Tilray Non-GAAP EPS of $0.02 misses by $0.05, revenue of $206.7M beats by $5.4M Tilray Q3 earnings: What to expect
Seeking Alpha (Seeking Alpha) Seeking Alpha (Seeking Alpha) Seeking Alpha (Seeking Alpha) Seeking Alpha (Seeking Alpha) More on Tilray Tilray: Big Bet On Beverages (Rating Upgrade) Tilray's Going To Be Great, But For Now It's A Hold Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) M&A Call Transcript Tilray Non-GAAP EPS of $0.02 misses by $0.05, revenue of $206.7M beats by $5.4M Tilray Q3 earnings: What to expect
Conagra Brands press release ( CAG ): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.39 misses by $0.01 . Revenue of $2.79B (-1.9% Y/Y) beats by $30M . In the quarter, net sales decreased 1.9% to $2.8 billion, reflecting: a 4.8% decrease from the impact of M&A, a 2.4% increase in organic net sales, and a 0.5% increase from the favorable impact of foreign exchange. The company is narrowing its fiscal 2026 guidance, reflect...
Conagra Brands press release ( CAG ): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.39 misses by $0.01 . Revenue of $2.79B (-1.9% Y/Y) beats by $30M . In the quarter, net sales decreased 1.9% to $2.8 billion, reflecting: a 4.8% decrease from the impact of M&A, a 2.4% increase in organic net sales, and a 0.5% increase from the favorable impact of foreign exchange. The company is narrowing its fiscal 2026 guidance, reflecting: Organic net sales change near the midpoint of its (1)% to 1% range, as compared to fiscal 2025 Adjusted operating margin near the high end of its ~11.0% to ~11.5% range Adjusted EPS of approximately $1.70 ($1.72 consensus), at the low end of its $1.70 to $1.85 range More on Conagra Brands Conagra Brands: A+ Valuation, 9% Dividend, Lowest Price Since 2009 = Strong Buy Conagra Brands: I'm Bullish Despite Modest Expectations For Q3 Earnings Conagra Brands: High-Yielding Staple, Shares Attractive Conagra Brands Q3 2026 Earnings Preview Most sold mid-cap consumer staples as Middle East tensions prevail
Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Amid weakness in the Canadian telco sector, and after peer BCE slashed its dividend in 2025, many investors are nervous the 9%+ dividend yield offered by Telus (TSX: T:CA )(NYSE: TU ) is on thin ice. This article will examine the issue from both the bull and bear scenarios to see whether the company can maintain the generous payout. ...
Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Amid weakness in the Canadian telco sector, and after peer BCE slashed its dividend in 2025, many investors are nervous the 9%+ dividend yield offered by Telus (TSX: T:CA )(NYSE: TU ) is on thin ice. This article will examine the issue from both the bull and bear scenarios to see whether the company can maintain the generous payout. (All figures are in Canadian Dollars unless indicated otherwise) Introduction Much has changed in the Canadian telecom space, especially in the last few years. For decades the market was dominated by three players -- Rogers , BCE, and Telus. These companies had the combined might to keep smaller players contained, and they used their financial resources to acquire the best spectrum, buy competitors when they got into financial difficulty, or to lobby governments to keep the proverbial gravy train going. The federal government tried for years to encourage a fourth nationwide wireless player, but no company could really get established. Two regional telecoms expanded into the wireless business, but both Shaw Communications and Quebecor didn't have much success moving beyond their regional roots. That all changed in 2023 when Rogers Communications officially acquired Shaw . The combination expanded Rogers wireline assets from Ontario into the western provinces. Suddenly, Rogers had scale in cable, internet, and wireless services. Canadian regulators let the deal through, but with a number of conditions. The most important condition was that Rogers needed to sell Shaw's wireless business. A deal was quickly struck with the only logical buyer of the assets, Quebecor. The regional telecom paid $2.85B for Shaw's wireless assets . The deal was a nice fit for Quebecor because its wireless customer base was in Quebec, while Shaw's wireless customers (under the Freedom brand) were spread across B.C., Alberta, and Ontario. There was virtually zero overlap. Quebecor immediately set to w...
Rawf8/iStock via Getty Images The bounce I've been warning that it's dangerous to have a macro short position in the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) in this headline-driven market because the stock market is now a matter of national security and thus vulnerable to short squeezes. That's what we got on March 31—nearly a 4% bounce in the Nasdaq 100 ( QQQ ) and nearly a 3% bounce in the S&P 500 ( SPY ). The trigge...
Rawf8/iStock via Getty Images The bounce I've been warning that it's dangerous to have a macro short position in the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) in this headline-driven market because the stock market is now a matter of national security and thus vulnerable to short squeezes. That's what we got on March 31—nearly a 4% bounce in the Nasdaq 100 ( QQQ ) and nearly a 3% bounce in the S&P 500 ( SPY ). The trigger: Trump signaled that “he might be willing to end the war without opening the Strait of Hormuz,” and the Iranian President suggested that “Iran would consider ending the war conditional on guarantees.” Both of these statements have been stated before; this is old news (part of negotiations as explained below), but the market took it as the reason to bounce. Thus, this bounce will be short-lived, and it's an opportunity to sell—with a lower risk of being “squeezed.” Tactically, the bounce could extend to the 200dma resistance. Yahoo The nightmare escalation scenario This is the macro context of the Iran war: The Strait of Hormuz is virtually closed, so 20% of global oil can't pass through, in addition to natural gas, fertilizers, and some other products. Thus, the global economy is facing a supply-driven oil price spike. In addition, the GCC regional energy infrastructure has been damaged, which points to longer-term effects, even after the war ends. Note, escalation could also cause Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait chokepoint in the Red Sea, further reducing oil supplies. On a macro level, higher oil prices will cause an inflationary shock. Thus, if inflation spikes, the Fed could be forced to hike interest rates, and 10Y yields would spike. The combination of higher oil prices, broad inflation, and higher interest rates would likely cause a global recession (stagflation). A recession with higher rates would cause 1) a housing bubble burst, 2) a private credit bust to become a systemic credit event, and 3) an AI bubble burst due to forced lower AI capex. In this n...
In this article @LCO.1 Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol gives a press conference in Brussels on March 6, 2026. Nicolas Tucat | Afp | Getty Images The coming month will see an intensification of the oil supply glut that has driven prices sharply higher since the start of the Iran war, according to the head of the Intern...
In this article @LCO.1 Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol gives a press conference in Brussels on March 6, 2026. Nicolas Tucat | Afp | Getty Images The coming month will see an intensification of the oil supply glut that has driven prices sharply higher since the start of the Iran war, according to the head of the International Energy Agency. Speaking to the "In Good Company" podcast hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Birol said the energy crisis sparked by the U.S.-Iran war was the worst in history. "The next month, April, will be much worse than March," he said. He explained that in March there were already some cargo ships carrying oil and gas that transited through the Strait of Hormuz before the war broke out. "They are still coming to ports, still bringing oil and energy and other [things]," he said. "In April, there is nothing. The loss of oil in April will be twice the loss of oil in March. On top of that you have LNG and others. It will come through to inflation, I think it will cut economic growth in many countries, especially emerging economies. In many countries the rationing of energy may be coming soon." U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that American forces would leave Iran "in two or three weeks," prompting a broad relief rally across financial markets. But Birol said the war, currently in its fifth week, had already created a deeper glut than those seen in previous crises such as those in the 1970s and following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "When you look at the [1973 and 1979], in both of them we lost each about 5 million barrels per day of oil. These oil crises led to global recession in many countries," he told Tangen. "Today, we lost 12 million barrels per day — more than two of these oil crises put together." He added that the gas supplies being lost as a result of the conflict and the blockade of the Strait ...