SolStock/E+ via Getty Images I’ve said it before and I’ll say it as long as investors are helped by my bringing it to light: the income feels good, but the bear market won't. Whether we are talking about the pioneers like JPMorgan Premium Income ( JEPI ) or its Nasdaq 100 peer ( JEPQ ), the new breed of single-stock yield maximizers, my stance remains the same, after researching and investing in t...
SolStock/E+ via Getty Images I’ve said it before and I’ll say it as long as investors are helped by my bringing it to light: the income feels good, but the bear market won't. Whether we are talking about the pioneers like JPMorgan Premium Income ( JEPI ) or its Nasdaq 100 peer ( JEPQ ), the new breed of single-stock yield maximizers, my stance remains the same, after researching and investing in this sub-segment of ETFs for decades (I owned my first of this ilk about 20 years ago). These are marketing masterpieces first and investment solutions second. To be crystal clear, that doesn’t mean they are bad investments. As long as the investor realizes exactly and completely what they are. My past articles on this topic have drawn mostly appreciative reviews, but certainly some challenges to my logic. That is, some investors assume that “everyone knows” that an ETF like NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF ( QQQI ) is essentially an exchange of some upside for a gaudy yield and a slightly improved downside capture. Maybe they do, and maybe they don’t. We can’t count them all up, which is why the comments feature of Seeking Alpha is so valuable. Because we can discuss it, and those who are newer to the topic (this or any other) can learn simply by reading the conversation. But here’s the issue, which I’m compelled to write about again here, and with QQQI as the prime target, since we are now at the riskiest moment to own that ETF’s underlying asset (Nasdaq 100) since well before these covered call ETFs were popular. And that creates a setup for the worst-case scenario: where investors do not account for risks that have not occurred in their investment tenure. Frankly, we have not seen a true bear market in 18 years. All downturns since have been flash-crashes more than bear cycles. Even the 2022 decline was done in nine months’ time. Data by YCharts Since my key argument is that QQQI is only as good as the performance of QQQ, here's QQQI since its early 2024 inception. Before...
sankai/iStock via Getty Images The Question This article follows the one I recently published with the title " I Traced The AI Capex, And Found 6 Profit Pools (One Is An Asymmetric Bet) ". It has been one of my most-read pieces with strong engagement from many SA members who left valuable comments, so I invite you to read it to better understand what we are going to discuss in this article. I have...
sankai/iStock via Getty Images The Question This article follows the one I recently published with the title " I Traced The AI Capex, And Found 6 Profit Pools (One Is An Asymmetric Bet) ". It has been one of my most-read pieces with strong engagement from many SA members who left valuable comments, so I invite you to read it to better understand what we are going to discuss in this article. I have been working on the AI supply chain for almost two years, and I am finally putting together the data I collected from single stocks and the macroeconomic variables I have been observing to build a framework that can be used to interpret what is happening and to help us make better investing decisions. I talked about 6 different AI layers, with L3 being the layer where the hyperscalers sit, funding this big investment cycle that moves in the direction of the lower layers (L0-L2), which are part of the infrastructure build-out supply chain, while also fueling new returns into the upper levels (L4-L5). One question, among many, was left unanswered. If the hyperscalers are deploying $725 billion at the cost of reporting negative or near-zero FCF this year, what happens to each dollar of hyperscaler's CapEx that flows across the supply chain? Here, I want to share the multiplier framework I am building. Before I do so, I want to briefly recall what some investors fear. The hyperscales have increased their capex by 77% YoY, as of now. In FY25, we ended up with roughly $410 billion; now we are already at $725 billion, with a chance that the number will increase by the end of the year. Now, the four main leaders have something like $420 billion in cash at hand, so there is no doubt that they can afford these investments. But some people wonder whether returns will ever appear on this massive capital deployment. Just a few days ago, Goldman Sachs published an article on this topic (incidentally, I found it also talks about our, by now, well-known profit pools), basically saying tha...
charnsitr/iStock via Getty Images The last time I spoke about REGENXBIO ( RGNX ) it was with a Seeking Alpha article entitled " REGENXBIO : Remains A "buy rating" Despite BLA Review Delay Of RGX-121 For Hunter Syndrome ." With respect to this article, I mentioned that the company had a delay with respect to its review of its gene therapy RGX-121 [clemidsogene lanparvovec] for the treatment of pati...
charnsitr/iStock via Getty Images The last time I spoke about REGENXBIO ( RGNX ) it was with a Seeking Alpha article entitled " REGENXBIO : Remains A "buy rating" Despite BLA Review Delay Of RGX-121 For Hunter Syndrome ." With respect to this article, I mentioned that the company had a delay with respect to its review of its gene therapy RGX-121 [clemidsogene lanparvovec] for the treatment of patients with MPS II [Hunter Syndrome]. In particular, the FDA delayed the review of this therapy for the treatment of these patients to February 8, 2026. I had a "Buy" rating at that time, and now I'm going to downgrade this stock to a "Hold" rating instead. The reason for doing so is because, sadly, the company did not receive FDA approval of RGX-121 but instead was met with a Complete Response Letter [CRL] . If that wasn't enough, the company also suffered an issue with its MPS I gene therapy candidate RGX-111, which was placed on a clinical hold before this CRL. The FDA noted similarities between this and RGX-121 and placed this on a clinical hold as well. However, with the most recent Q1 of 2026 earnings update , it mentioned that it was able to get the partial clinical hold of RGX-121 lifted. This still doesn't change the fact that the company is only in the appeals process of the CRL. It filed an appeal for RGX-121 to treat MPS II patients and continues to engage a path forward. It might get lucky and find a quicker route to approval, but in the CRL the FDA didn't like several measures, like the CSF HS D2S6 as a surrogate endpoint to predict full clinical benefit, nor the use of natural history data as an external control. The company just released positive data from the phase 3 portion of its phase 1/2/3 AFFINITY DUCHENNE trial for the treatment of patients with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy [DMD] using RGX-202. The primary endpoint was met in terms of microdystrophin expression, plus there was a correlation of such expression improving functional clinical outcomes [NSAA]...
IURII KRASILNIKOV/iStock via Getty Images The last article covered how I was not a fan of Ovintiv ( OVV ) and have not been for some time. One of the things I watch is that Ovintiv continues to report losse s while the company that sold probably the most significant amount of production to Ovintiv recently, Paramount Resources ( PRMRF ) continues to report profits . I understand that Ovintiv had a...
IURII KRASILNIKOV/iStock via Getty Images The last article covered how I was not a fan of Ovintiv ( OVV ) and have not been for some time. One of the things I watch is that Ovintiv continues to report losse s while the company that sold probably the most significant amount of production to Ovintiv recently, Paramount Resources ( PRMRF ) continues to report profits . I understand that Ovintiv had a loss mostly due to an impairment charge and that impairment charges themselves may not be a "real" loss because the company will make money with the assets impaired even if they were not impaired. The lower of cost or market calculation has long been a dispute between countries and academics that has resulted in more than one treatment of the calculation. Canada, for example, allows the recovery of impairment charges under IFRAS accounting with the idea that recovering commodity prices will allow that impairment to essentially undo itself. The United States GAAP accounting makes no such allowances for the eventual recovery of commodity prices. As a result, there can be a "game" in the United States whereby some companies "clear the decks" in one year only to report above average profitability after that. That cannot happen in Canada because those charges can come back. This points to looking at the average profitability of a company (including write-offs) because a business is run to be sufficiently profitable period (not just profitable during the good times and then the profits get partially or fully wiped-out during downturns). Sometimes this escapes the beginning investor because that investor looks at the good times and those great profits while ignoring the losses during a downturn. What I Look For (Simple Overview) In my case, I do review the accounting for a company like Paramount Resources to make sure that those profits are "real" and not some figment of accounting that will boomerang later. What I find is that the balance sheet has no debt and there is a big cas...
Getty Images I definitely need to cover this recent work from Merck ( MRK ) because (1) it’s very interesting scientifically and (2) it has over 130 authors on the paper (!). It details the industrial synthesis of enlicitide , which is a beast of a macrocyclic peptide (see below!). Just looking at the structure tells you that this must be a ferociously active molecule with huge commercial potentia...
Getty Images I definitely need to cover this recent work from Merck ( MRK ) because (1) it’s very interesting scientifically and (2) it has over 130 authors on the paper (!). It details the industrial synthesis of enlicitide , which is a beast of a macrocyclic peptide (see below!). Just looking at the structure tells you that this must be a ferociously active molecule with huge commercial potential, because there is just no way that anyone is going to make this on scale - or find a way to make this on scale! - otherwise. This drug hits the PCSK9 pathway, which has been quite a story over the years. This target was famously discovered by finding a few people with mutations in the underlying gene who had bizarrely low LDL concentrations and who seemed to have correspondingly robust cardiac health. The first drugs on the market to take action on this idea were antibodies to block the receptor, and those were approved by the FDA some years ago as injectables. They do indeed lower LDL, but (as that last blog post link notes) the results in humans have to be characterized as "good but not revolutionary". I don’t know of any studies that show a definite advantage compared to statin (HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor) therapy, for example, although there are statin side effects in some patients that have to be taken into account. (On the other side of the question, statins seem to have some beneficial pleiotropic effects that we don’t quite understand, and whether these are shared by PCSK9 inhibition, I don’t know.) And there are other people for whom statin therapy just comes up short, to be sure. Several companies have tried over the years to come up with a small-molecule (well, smallish-molecule) approach that could lead to an orally dosed therapy as opposed to an injectable, and Merck has apparently made it over the finish line with this one. Here are the results of a trial in over 1900 patients (compared to over 900 in the placebo group) treated with the drug over a year, 20...
standret/iStock via Getty Images The US economy appears to be re-accelerating here in Q2 after nearly grinding to a halt in Q1 (0.5% annualized pace). April US CPI and PPI were more elevated than expected. The anticipated average effective Fed funds rate in December rose more than 15 bp in the past week and is up slightly more than 75 bp since the war on Iran began. The Dollar Index ( DXY ) rose a...
standret/iStock via Getty Images The US economy appears to be re-accelerating here in Q2 after nearly grinding to a halt in Q1 (0.5% annualized pace). April US CPI and PPI were more elevated than expected. The anticipated average effective Fed funds rate in December rose more than 15 bp in the past week and is up slightly more than 75 bp since the war on Iran began. The Dollar Index ( DXY ) rose almost 1.4% last week, its best week since the first week of March. In addition to the swinging pendulum of market expectations for the Federal Reserve, which has a new chair (and will likely usher in a new era for the central bank), UK political drama that appears likely to bring down Prime Minister Starmer added to the pressure on sterling and UK stocks and bonds. The market has taken the yen to its lowest level since the end of April's apparent intervention. It will begin the week ahead testing the resolve of Japanese officials. Lastly, Trump-Xi meeting was heralded as a success by both sides. Despite Beijing's promises to buy more beans, beef, planes and energy from the US, Washington is in a dilemma. If it proceeds with the $14 bln arms package to Taiwan, it will risk the wrath of Beijing, but if it is shelved, the administration's domestic critics will cry "appeasement". US Drivers: There are two main drivers of the Dollar Index now - changes in US rates and risk environment. The rolling 60-day correlation of changes in the Dollar Index and two-year yields is near a six-month high of a little over 0.50. The correlation with changes in the 10-year yield is slightly higher. Changes in the two- and 10-year yields are around 0.90 correlated over the past 60 days, which is the most in three years. Changes in the Dollar Index and the VIX are correlated over the past 60 days by the most since June 2024 (~0.49). The Dollar Index is inversely correlated with the S&P 500 itself ( SPX ), and the inversion over the past 60 sessions is the most since January 2023 (~-0.57). Data: Af...
Mario Tama/Getty Images News Twenty people died in Japan after receiving Tavneos, a rare disorder therapy developed by Amgen ( AMGN ), prompting its local partner Kissei ( KSPHF ) to urge healthcare professionals to exercise caution in prescribing the drug, The Wall Street Journal reported. Additionally, at least 22 people developed a potentially fatal liver injury after taking Tavneos, also known...
Mario Tama/Getty Images News Twenty people died in Japan after receiving Tavneos, a rare disorder therapy developed by Amgen ( AMGN ), prompting its local partner Kissei ( KSPHF ) to urge healthcare professionals to exercise caution in prescribing the drug, The Wall Street Journal reported. Additionally, at least 22 people developed a potentially fatal liver injury after taking Tavneos, also known as Avacopan, which Kissei ( KSPHF ) has licensed from Australia’s CSL Limited ( CSLLY ) ( CMXHF ), the owner of the ex-US rights to the drug. “Kissei has begun providing information to healthcare professionals, urging them to refrain from using this drug for new patients and to carefully assess the continuation of treatment for existing patients, explaining the risks of liver dysfunction and alternative treatments to ensure patient safety,” the company said in a statement. Kissei added that a causal link between Tavneos and the deaths hasn't been established in all 20 cases. An Amgen ( AMGN ) spokesperson noted that the mortalities occurred out of over 8,500 patients treated with its therapy in Japan. Indicated for a group of rare disorders called anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic autoantibody associated vasculitis, Tavneos is not new to safety concerns. In April, the U.S. FDA sought to pull the product from the market, citing safety concerns and potential manipulation of data supporting its approval. Tavneos, which was added to Amgen's ( AMGN ) portfolio with the U.S. drugmaker's $3.7B acquisition of ChemoCentryx in 2022, added $423M and $36M in sales last year from the U.S. and international markets, respectively. Marketed since 2022 in Japan for granulomatosis with polyangiitis and microscopic polyangiitis, Tavneos has generated ¥11.5B for the fiscal year ending March 2026, Kissei ( KSPHF ) said, adding that the company has yet to assess the financial impact of its decision. More on Amgen, Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., etc. CSL Limited (CSLLY) Shareholder/Analyst Call Tran...
A collision between a goods train and a bus killed at least eight people and injured 35 in the Thai capital Bangkok on Saturday, police said. Firefighters and rescuers cordoned off the collision site, with investigators seen peering into the burnt-out shell of the bus. Pedestrians were ushered away from the busy downtown intersection, which is used by tens of thousands of vehicles each day. “Eight...
A collision between a goods train and a bus killed at least eight people and injured 35 in the Thai capital Bangkok on Saturday, police said. Firefighters and rescuers cordoned off the collision site, with investigators seen peering into the burnt-out shell of the bus. Pedestrians were ushered away from the busy downtown intersection, which is used by tens of thousands of vehicles each day. “Eight people have died and 35 others were injured,” Bangkok police chief Urumporn Koondejsumrit said. The...
It has long been suspected the Revolutionary Guards – specifically its Quds Force – was responsible for recent terror attacks in London, Canada and across Europe The arrest by US authorities of an alleged Iraqi commander of an Iranian-backed militia group now accused of responsibility for 18 terrorist attacks in the UK, Europe and Canada since the beginning of the Iran war is an astonishing develo...
It has long been suspected the Revolutionary Guards – specifically its Quds Force – was responsible for recent terror attacks in London, Canada and across Europe The arrest by US authorities of an alleged Iraqi commander of an Iranian-backed militia group now accused of responsibility for 18 terrorist attacks in the UK, Europe and Canada since the beginning of the Iran war is an astonishing development – yet not the least bit surprising. According to a complaint unsealed on Friday in a federal court in Manhattan, Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi is allegedly responsible for organising – among other operations – a string of recent firebombings of banks and other targets in France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands, an arson attack against a synagogue and a shooting at the US consulate in Toronto in March, as well as – most recently – a wave of attacks on mainly Jewish targets in the UK including places of worship and charities. Continue reading...
Funtap/iStock via Getty Images Introduction REITs ( XLRE ) have finally started recovering after years of underperformance from elevated interest rates. XLRE is up 10.33% year-to-date, but many quality names still trade at attractive valuations. One of the most notable examples is Realty Income ( O ), who trades at a forward P/AFFO multiple of approximately 14.0x, below the sector median's 16.15x....
Funtap/iStock via Getty Images Introduction REITs ( XLRE ) have finally started recovering after years of underperformance from elevated interest rates. XLRE is up 10.33% year-to-date, but many quality names still trade at attractive valuations. One of the most notable examples is Realty Income ( O ), who trades at a forward P/AFFO multiple of approximately 14.0x, below the sector median's 16.15x. And this is despite maintaining an A-rated balance sheet, accelerating investment activity, and a guidance raise in their latest quarter. This signifies that they could see solid upside once rates continue to trend down, likely in the next 6-12 months. However, growth is still disappointing compared to peers and their past performance, confirming the market's skepticism around their gargantuan size and future growth efforts. However, their transition from a traditional NNN REIT into a diversified capital allocator with the launch of their U.S. Core Plus fund, which is expected to be the REIT's next growth engine. In this article, I discuss O's latest earnings, fundamentals, their new private capital fund, and why the stock remains attractive for long-term income-oriented investors. Previous Thesis I last covered Realty Income this past March, upgrading them from a hold to a buy . This was due to their renewed growth initiatives with the launch of their private fund and strategic partnerships. Anticipated rate declines also played a role in the upgrade, leading me to believe they could see solid price appreciation because of their valuation. During earnings, they showed stable fundamentals with occupancy rising modestly, raising AFFO guidance, and accelerated investment activity. Their upside potential to their 2028 price target of $80, 5% dividend yield, and valuation below the peer average were incentives for income-focused investors. Since then, the share price has been volatile, down 7%. The S&P ( SP500 ) in comparison is up close to 9%. Seeking Alpha Private Fund Becom...
SCM Jeans/iStock via Getty Images This monthly article series provides a top-down analysis of the utilities sector based on subsector metrics focused on value, quality and momentum. It may also help analyze sector ETFs such as the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLU ) and Vanguard Utilities ETF ( VPU ), whose largest holdings are used to calculate these metrics. Shortcut The next two paragraphs...
SCM Jeans/iStock via Getty Images This monthly article series provides a top-down analysis of the utilities sector based on subsector metrics focused on value, quality and momentum. It may also help analyze sector ETFs such as the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLU ) and Vanguard Utilities ETF ( VPU ), whose largest holdings are used to calculate these metrics. Shortcut The next two paragraphs in italics describe the dashboard methodology. They are necessary for new readers to understand the metrics. If you are used to this series or if you are short of time, you can skip them and go to the charts. Base Metrics I calculate the median value of five fundamental ratios for each industry: Earnings Yield ("EY"), Sales Yield ("SY"), Free Cash Flow Yield ("FY"), Return on Equity ("ROE"), Gross Margin ("GM"). The reference universe includes large companies in the U.S. stock market. The five base metrics are calculated on the trailing 12 months. For all of them, higher is better. EY, SY, and FY are medians of the inverse of Price/Earnings, Price/Sales and Price/Free Cash Flow. They are better for statistical studies than price-to-something ratios, which are unusable or non available when the "something" is close to zero or negative (for example, companies with negative earnings). I also look at two momentum metrics for each group: the median monthly return (RetM) and the median annual return (RetY). I prefer medians to averages because a median splits a set into a good half and a bad half. A capital-weighted average is skewed by extreme values and the largest companies. My metrics are designed for stock-picking rather than index investing. Value and Quality Scores I calculate historical baselines for all metrics. They are noted respectively as EYh, SYh, FYh, ROEh, GMh, and they are calculated as the averages on a look-back period of 11 years. For example, the value of EYh for hardware in the table below is the 11-year average of the median Earnings Yield in hardware comp...
PeopleImages/iStock via Getty Images The story for Esperion Therapeutics ( ESPR ) as a publicly traded company came to an end on May 1st with an acquisition offer by healthcare investment firm ARCHIMED . Yet, the investing story for ESPR is not over. The company has agreements for milestone payments going out to 2030, and the acquisition deal is structured to allow shareholders to continue to part...
PeopleImages/iStock via Getty Images The story for Esperion Therapeutics ( ESPR ) as a publicly traded company came to an end on May 1st with an acquisition offer by healthcare investment firm ARCHIMED . Yet, the investing story for ESPR is not over. The company has agreements for milestone payments going out to 2030, and the acquisition deal is structured to allow shareholders to continue to participate in that potential upside. This feature is important since the milestone payments were a major part of the story for ESPR. The payments both gave a floor to the company’s finances as well as offered proof of the ongoing viability of the business. Still, I decided to take my profits now and forgo the future cash streams. Recognizing that some may like the terms of the distributions, I am only downgrading ESPR to a hold. A Maximum 5% Annual Yield Thanks to financing deals like secondary share offerings, ESPR significantly grew its outstanding shares over the last 5 years. Growing from 26.3M in June, 2021 to 257.4M in the latest quarter, this near 10x increase in outstanding shares delivered major dilution that created significant overhang on the price of shares. Esperion ramped outstanding shares at a rapid pace. (Seeking Alpha) The stock could not sustain breakouts above its peak in January 2024, a high that preceded a stock offering at $1.50. That event helped put ESPR on my radar and, as I have written in previous articles, the stock became a speculative investment for me. However, that same growth in outstanding shares means that ARCHIMED’s offer to share milestone payments with shareholders amounts to an insufficient reason for me to keep holding the shares. Investing in ESPR required close attention to key technical levels as well as fundamental catalysts. ( TradingView ) ARCHIMED will grant Contingent Value Rights (CVRs) to facilitate milestone payments to shareholders. Per the 8-K , which provides full details about the deal , “each CVR will entitle the holder ...
The list of troubles is long in the world today. Geopolitical conflicts, rising energy prices, lingering trade wars, and the potential for a global recession are some of the big ones. And yet there are companies that manage to muddle through whatever troubles come their way while continuing to reward investors with reliable, growing dividends. Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) a...
The list of troubles is long in the world today. Geopolitical conflicts, rising energy prices, lingering trade wars, and the potential for a global recession are some of the big ones. And yet there are companies that manage to muddle through whatever troubles come their way while continuing to reward investors with reliable, growing dividends. Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) are two such companies. Coca-Cola and P&G share one very notable attribute. They are both Dividend Kings , each with over 50 consecutive annual dividend increases. That's important because a streak like that can't be built by accident. It requires a strong business plan that is executed well in both good and bad markets. Both of these companies have proven they are resilient businesses through the entire economic cycle many times over at this point. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading