JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images In lowering its guidance for Q2 2026 and the full 2026 fiscal year, KB Home ( KBH ) described a weak demand environment that cannot support the dynamics of the seasonal trade on home builders . In a typical season, from October to April/May, the stocks of home builders outperform the S&P 500 ( SPY ). The launch of the spring selling season in the housing...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images In lowering its guidance for Q2 2026 and the full 2026 fiscal year, KB Home ( KBH ) described a weak demand environment that cannot support the dynamics of the seasonal trade on home builders . In a typical season, from October to April/May, the stocks of home builders outperform the S&P 500 ( SPY ). The launch of the spring selling season in the housing market invariably raises a tide of optimistic news and hopeful outlooks. This momentum provides core support for the seasonal trade, but that momentum completely evaporated in March. Per KB Home, the war against Iran is weighing on already tentative and cautious home buyers. During the company’s earnings conference call , Executive Chairman Jeffrey Mezger noted that the consumer has faced “a variety of challenges” over the last two years, and the war “has added another layer of uncertainty.” Accordingly, the last two weeks delivered softer-than-expected housing demand. KBH understandably throttled its guidance given mortgage rates trending higher and Q1 net orders that ran below the company’s threshold for meeting full-year 2026 guidance. Not only does the loss of momentum symbolize the end of the seasonal trade on the stocks of home builders, but it also keeps KBH at the hold rating I issued over a year ago . (Note that at the time I disqualified KBH from the seasonal trade). Only a stock buyback plan saves the stock from a sell rating (note I am very biased against sell ratings for home builders). Guidance KB Home took guidance down significantly. The absolute numbers and percentage change calculations are based on full-year guidance originally provided in the Q4 2025 earnings report versus the guidance appearing in the Q1 2026 earnings report . Deliveries from 10,000 to 11,500 homes, down from a range of 11,000 to 12,500 homes, a decline of 8.5% at the midpoint. Housing revenues from $4.8B to $5.5B, down from a range of $5.1B to $6.1B, a decline of 8.0% at the midpoint ...
US leveraged loans are on track to outperform junk bonds this month by the most in two and a half years, as some borrowers have shifted debt financing to loans while markets are roiled by conflict in the Middle East. Leveraged loans through Thursday had a total return of 0.64% in March, according to a Morningstar LSTA index. That compares with a 1.49% loss for high-yield notes, a Bloomberg gauge s...
US leveraged loans are on track to outperform junk bonds this month by the most in two and a half years, as some borrowers have shifted debt financing to loans while markets are roiled by conflict in the Middle East. Leveraged loans through Thursday had a total return of 0.64% in March, according to a Morningstar LSTA index. That compares with a 1.49% loss for high-yield notes, a Bloomberg gauge shows. In September 2023, loans outperformed junk bonds by 2.145 percentage points, the measures show. Loans are also performing better year to date, with a 0.45% loss against declines of 0.81% for junk bonds. High-yield notes have slumped in March driven by a global decline in bonds on inflation concerns. But “the relative resilience of loans was surprising considering the persisting software and private credit headlines in recent weeks,” according to a Citigroup Inc. report on Friday. Leveraged loans were under pressure between mid-January and early March, hit by worries about the future of some software firms as artificial intelligence displaces businesses and jobs. But average prices have stabilized in the secondary market. With bond yields jumping this month, leveraged finance deals were reworked to offer more loans. Banks twice upsized loans for Electronic Arts Inc.’s buyout deal this week while trimming the bond portion, and a planned high-yield note for Janus Henderson Group Plc ’s funding was scrapped in favor of more loans.
Citigroup strategists are dialing back their exposure to U.S. equities, warning that fading hopes for a swift resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict are increasing downside risks for markets already rattled by an oil-driven shock. Strategists said they brought their U.S. small-cap overweight "back to zero" as part of a broader effort to cut equity exposure. The bank also reduced its overall equity a...
Citigroup strategists are dialing back their exposure to U.S. equities, warning that fading hopes for a swift resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict are increasing downside risks for markets already rattled by an oil-driven shock. Strategists said they brought their U.S. small-cap overweight "back to zero" as part of a broader effort to cut equity exposure. The bank also reduced its overall equity allocation to neutral, citing a broad set of negative macro signals now flashing caution. "With most of our negative equity macro risk signals triggering, we continue to cut equity exposure, taking our allocation to neutral," Citi strategists wrote in a note to clients. "The incentives for both Iran and Israel do not necessarily align with a quick end." Small caps, which tend to be more exposed to economic cycles and financing conditions, are particularly vulnerable in an environment of higher energy prices and tightening liquidity. Citi said the escalation in oil markets coupled with a lack of progress toward a ceasefire has shifted the risk-reward balance against maintaining a bullish stance on these stocks. The escalation has put major pressure on U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell into a correction Thursday, down more than 10% from a record set in October. The blue-chip Dow and the small-cap Russell 2000 are also nearing correction territory, each down about 9% from its all-time high. The S & P 500 is around 7% below its record. The Trump administration is seeking an end to the U.S.-Iran war, a conflict that has resulted in surging oil prices that's already hurting voters at the pump and could cost Republicans their seats in the midterm elections. President Donald Trump extended a deadline to attack Iran's energy infrastructure and said he would extend a pause to attack Iran's energy facilities to April 6. "That resolution proposals have been exchanged between the US and Iran is a positive start, continued deadline extensions by the US are overall net negative for a ...
China’s new air-based nuclear missile will boost the country’s ability to survive a first strike and retaliate, reinforcing confidence in its no-first-use policy, according to a state-linked military magazine. The Jinglei-1 nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) made its debut at the World War II Victory Day parade in Beijing last September. It can be carried by the PLA Air Force’s ...
China’s new air-based nuclear missile will boost the country’s ability to survive a first strike and retaliate, reinforcing confidence in its no-first-use policy, according to a state-linked military magazine. The Jinglei-1 nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) made its debut at the World War II Victory Day parade in Beijing last September. It can be carried by the PLA Air Force’s H-6N strategic bombers, completing the People’s Liberation Army’s “nuclear triad” – the ability to...
China’s electric vehicle (EV) king BYD posted its first annual profit drop in four years as it faced intensifying competition from domestic rivals in a cutthroat market. The Shenzhen-based company reported a net profit of 32.6 billion yuan (US$4.72 billion) for 2025, down 18.97 per cent from a year earlier, according to a filing to the Hong Kong and Shenzhen stock exchanges. That missed a consensu...
China’s electric vehicle (EV) king BYD posted its first annual profit drop in four years as it faced intensifying competition from domestic rivals in a cutthroat market. The Shenzhen-based company reported a net profit of 32.6 billion yuan (US$4.72 billion) for 2025, down 18.97 per cent from a year earlier, according to a filing to the Hong Kong and Shenzhen stock exchanges. That missed a consensus forecast of 35.4 billion yuan in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Revenue grew 3.46 per cent to...
Shandong Airlines, a subsidiary of flagship carrier Air China, has announced plans to lease 10 Boeing 737 aircraft, signalling China’s continued demand for the American jets as it looks to refresh an ageing fleet. The airline will pay a total fee of 2.88 billion yuan (US$405 million), with the aircraft to be delivered in batches over the coming two years, according to a notice Air China issued to ...
Shandong Airlines, a subsidiary of flagship carrier Air China, has announced plans to lease 10 Boeing 737 aircraft, signalling China’s continued demand for the American jets as it looks to refresh an ageing fleet. The airline will pay a total fee of 2.88 billion yuan (US$405 million), with the aircraft to be delivered in batches over the coming two years, according to a notice Air China issued to the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Thursday. The deals include 10-year leases for three Boeing 737-800...
After events such as Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean, shelters offer refuge but no guarantee of safety to women and girls The grandchildren called the shelter Final Destination, after a favourite film. Tedica Alexander, 61, a resident of Union Island in St Vincent and the Grenadines, recalls with pride – and a tremor in her voice – how her nine grandchildren supported her and others at the Ashton...
After events such as Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean, shelters offer refuge but no guarantee of safety to women and girls The grandchildren called the shelter Final Destination, after a favourite film. Tedica Alexander, 61, a resident of Union Island in St Vincent and the Grenadines, recalls with pride – and a tremor in her voice – how her nine grandchildren supported her and others at the Ashton community centre when Hurricane Beryl hit the area in July 2024. Alexander arrived after she was advised to seek shelter in Ashton, rather than at Clifton school as she had expected as it was closer. As the storm approached, the shelter quickly filled up. The building’s windows shattered, and flood waters rose above ankle height. “If it had lasted one more minute, the door would have given way,” she says. Continue reading...
President’s move, dubbed Trump Always Chickens Out, appears to have soured as he loses hold on situation in Iran From Wall Street to the White House, the dish everyone’s talking about this week is the Persian Taco. It’s what’s served when Trump chickens out in Iran. In the early hours of Monday morning, witnessing oil prices surge, stock futures plummet and bond yields climb due to his threat to p...
President’s move, dubbed Trump Always Chickens Out, appears to have soured as he loses hold on situation in Iran From Wall Street to the White House, the dish everyone’s talking about this week is the Persian Taco. It’s what’s served when Trump chickens out in Iran. In the early hours of Monday morning, witnessing oil prices surge, stock futures plummet and bond yields climb due to his threat to pummel Iran’s civilian power infrastructure , the president hurriedly walked it back, announcing he would put off the bombing because talks with Iran were actually going great. After the bombast and bloodshed, it was time for Taco (Trump Always Chickens Out), a move he first put on display during the tariffs crisis last year. Continue reading...
At 59, I was at last an orphan. I woke up with the most complete feeling of liberty and personhood I’d ever experienced Looked at one way, the modern longevity narrative is an inspirational story of human scientific and social progress. Looked at another you could say that we are now condemned to longevity – our own and other people’s. It’s placing a massive economic, social and psychological burd...
At 59, I was at last an orphan. I woke up with the most complete feeling of liberty and personhood I’d ever experienced Looked at one way, the modern longevity narrative is an inspirational story of human scientific and social progress. Looked at another you could say that we are now condemned to longevity – our own and other people’s. It’s placing a massive economic, social and psychological burden on us as individuals and as a society. There are now so many old people that new categories of demographic definition have been created to describe them. Those considered the “young old” are aged between 55 and 65. That’s me: At 63 years of age, I’m a young old. By all the rules of human history, I should have been dead for years. Instead, when I look 20 years into the future, I foresee an even older me who will need to plan for the outside possibility that I may have another 20 years to go. This is not necessarily, in my view, a glorious prospect. Continue reading...
The findings in two US court cases should embarrass anyone who claimed Australia’s social media ban was ‘boomer’ moralising A disdain towards the notion of “consequence” somewhat defines the contemporary western moment of the powerful. So two recent US court decisions that are adverse to the interests of – oh my god, would you believe it? – tech companies should be heralded to the full height of e...
The findings in two US court cases should embarrass anyone who claimed Australia’s social media ban was ‘boomer’ moralising A disdain towards the notion of “consequence” somewhat defines the contemporary western moment of the powerful. So two recent US court decisions that are adverse to the interests of – oh my god, would you believe it? – tech companies should be heralded to the full height of every sky. Within days of each other this week, a court in New Mexico and another in Los Angeles determined that social media platforms were legally responsible for harms caused to users. Continue reading...
To get Industrial Strength delivered directly to your inbox, sign up here . The cost of the war in Iran is starting to cascade through the industrial sector — and so is the risk of supply-chain breakdown and demand destruction. Iran and Israel are continuing to exchange missile fire and there’s been little progress on reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, even as the Trump administration insists...
To get Industrial Strength delivered directly to your inbox, sign up here . The cost of the war in Iran is starting to cascade through the industrial sector — and so is the risk of supply-chain breakdown and demand destruction. Iran and Israel are continuing to exchange missile fire and there’s been little progress on reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, even as the Trump administration insists that peace talks are underway. Brent crude prices are bouncing up and down around $100 a barrel based on the headlines of the moment but even the lower end of prices the past two weeks take oil back to levels last seen in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil and gas are the lifeblood of the manufacturing industry, serving as both the fuel source for most production capabilities and the feedstock for plastics, adhesives, refrigerants and synthetic rubbers and fibers, among other things. Europe and Asia are likely to feel the impacts more significantly and urgently, but the US is far from immune. The cost of ferrying goods by truck, plane or ship is also surging alongside fuel expenses. Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd AG warned this week that the disruptions in the Middle East are adding $40 million to $50 million of operating costs a week. The US Postal Service announced a temporary 8% surcharge on some packages to offset rising transportation expenses — the only time in recent history it’s done so. “The ructions in global energy markets are about to make themselves felt downstream, first in petrochemical production and then in the industrial end-markets,” Oxcap Analytics analyst Rory Smith wrote in a note. Read More: Trump Team Examines What Oil as High as $200 a Barrel Would Mean Chemicals companies on the front lines of the inflationary shock are aggressively raising prices on disruptions from the four-week-old war — Dow Inc. has even raised them multiple times on the same product , telling customers this week that a previously announced April price boost on plastic resins w...
Welcome to the Brussels Edition. I’m Suzanne Lynch, Bloomberg’s Brussels bureau chief, bringing you the latest from the EU each weekday. Make sure you’re signed up . Europe is at risk of a stagflationary shock. That’s the stark warning today from the European Union’s economy commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, after a meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels. “It is now clear that the scal...
Welcome to the Brussels Edition. I’m Suzanne Lynch, Bloomberg’s Brussels bureau chief, bringing you the latest from the EU each weekday. Make sure you’re signed up . Europe is at risk of a stagflationary shock. That’s the stark warning today from the European Union’s economy commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, after a meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels. “It is now clear that the scale severity and impact of the war has increased” since ministers met two weeks ago, Dombrovskis said, warning that a protracted war in the Middle East could shave as much as 0.6 percentage points off economic output across the EU in 2026 and 2027. This follows an updated economic outlook from the OECD this week that lowered its growth forecasts for the euro area to 0.8% for this year, down 0.4 percentage points, as higher energy prices weigh on activity. Inflation is forecast to hit 2.6%, up 0.7 percentage points. The continuing war in the Middle East has been an unwelcome shock for the European economy, dominating last week’s EU leaders summit. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol dialed into today’s meeting. As well as concerns about rising energy prices, EU officials are closely watching measures being introduced by national governments to cushion the blow for consumers and businesses. Many EU countries have limited fiscal space. Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis said today that measures should be temporary, targeted at the vulnerable and reflect the long-term strategic priorities of EU energy policy. “We should not create another type of crisis, a fiscal crisis while trying to balance this one,” he said. “It’s all about trying to find the appropriate mix.” France is one of the countries set to unveil measures later today. The euro area’s second-largest economy received a boost after figures today showed it beat its 2025 deficit-reduction target, giving the government some margin for maneuver, though Finance Minister Roland Lescure emphasized the need for ...