Danilo Oliver/iStock Editorial via Getty Images In my previous coverage of Telefônica Brasil ( VIV ), also known as Vivo, my argument was that the thesis depended on four key factors to reiterate the bull case: falling CapEx, growing OpCF, accelerating FCF, and high/sustainable payout. The good news is that 1Q26, reported on May 11, confirms this, in large part at least. Although CapEx is not fall...
Danilo Oliver/iStock Editorial via Getty Images In my previous coverage of Telefônica Brasil ( VIV ), also known as Vivo, my argument was that the thesis depended on four key factors to reiterate the bull case: falling CapEx, growing OpCF, accelerating FCF, and high/sustainable payout. The good news is that 1Q26, reported on May 11, confirms this, in large part at least. Although CapEx is not falling much in absolute terms, capital intensity is declining. Telefônica Brasil continued to grow revenues above annual inflation in Brazil , while EBITDA grew faster than revenues, suggesting that operational leverage is still pushing OpCF higher. The most sensitive point was that FCF grew only marginally. But on the other hand, Telefônica Brasil has reiterated its commitment to distribute at least 100% of its net income. Even though 1Q26 came with some minor issues, I still reached the same conclusion as before: the Brazilian telecom giant continues to evolve into a post-investment-cycle cash cow that appears far from stagnant. Even though VIV shares are still up ~25% year to date, I believe that the combination of a mid-single digit dividend yield and double-digit earnings growth for a low leverage thesis is quite a compelling bull case for a telecom like Telefônica Brasil—especially after the subdued reaction post-Q1. Data by YCharts The Few Blemishes in an Otherwise Solid Quarter Since VIV posted its 4Q25 earnings at the end of February, shares traded range-bound until very recently on 1Q26 earnings day. The knee-jerk reaction post-Q1 was bearish in this case. Data by YCharts The headline at first glance looked great. Revenues are up 7.4% YoY, and EBITDA is up 9% YoY with EBITDA margin standing at 40.2% vs. 39.6% in the same period last year. Telefonica Brasil's IR The first problem was that net income, despite growing 19.2% YoY, came in below expectations. As a result, VIV posted normalized EPS 7 cents below what the consensus anticipated, which implied ~30% below previ...