DaveAlan/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Alaska Air Group (Alaska Airlines) ( ALK ) stock is up 7.2% as the sentiment is largely positive on the broader market. The uptick in the share price comes a day after the company updated its guidance; while the release reads somewhat positively, it is not a positive adjustment to the expectations. In this report, I discuss the updated guidance and updat...
DaveAlan/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Alaska Air Group (Alaska Airlines) ( ALK ) stock is up 7.2% as the sentiment is largely positive on the broader market. The uptick in the share price comes a day after the company updated its guidance; while the release reads somewhat positively, it is not a positive adjustment to the expectations. In this report, I discuss the updated guidance and update my price target for Alaska Airlines, as I can no longer maintain the strong buy rating issued in October 2025. Alaska Airlines Plagued by High Oil Prices Alaska Airlines On the 30 th of March, Alaska Airlines issued a guidance update, and while the company does highlight demand strength, I do believe the outlook is much more uncertain in the balance of the year. The company noted that demand continued to show strength, with unit revenues tracking in line with prior expectations. Into the second quarter, forward bookings 90 days out are up 25% for corporate travel, with yields and load factors also up. The company did note that fuel costs have increased materially. Alaska Airlines always has some disadvantages when it comes to fuel costs, and the fuel price environment is now evolving in a negative way with refining margins increasing. The company now expects economic fuel prices to be $2.90-$3.30, providing a $0.70 headwind, with additional headwinds in the form of storms in Hawaii and cartel violence in Mexico leading to softer demand. The company noted that absent fuel and demand disruptions, the guidance would have been met at the midpoint of the range, but including disrupting factors, the company now expects a loss per share between $1.50 and $2.00. Previously, the company expected a loss per share of $0.50-$1.50. So, at the lower end there was a $0.50 downward shift, and at the higher end of the range, a $1.00 shift at the high end with a midpoint shift of $0.75, largely reflective of the oil price headwind. On the demand and yield side, Alaska Airlines seems to be ...
A global stock surge is masking deeper anxiety over the global economic outlook that may cut the relief rally short. Optimism that the war in Iran may end soon after President Donald Trump said he foresaw the US ending the war with Iran within two to three weeks has given the market a much-needed boost. But investors are increasingly sketching out the impact of higher-for-longer oil prices, on exp...
A global stock surge is masking deeper anxiety over the global economic outlook that may cut the relief rally short. Optimism that the war in Iran may end soon after President Donald Trump said he foresaw the US ending the war with Iran within two to three weeks has given the market a much-needed boost. But investors are increasingly sketching out the impact of higher-for-longer oil prices, on expectations that the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is a potential sustained drag on fundamentals. The telltale sign of a shallow rally — rather than investors rushing in to bet big on a recovery — is muted trading volume across most Asian markets on Wednesday. The metric on the Korea’s Kospi stock index, for example, was about a fifth lower than the average of the past month. With earnings season approaching to offer the first glimpse of the war’s toll on corporate bottom lines, there are plenty of potential catalysts that could thwart a rebound. The Iran war “shock is yet to be incorporated in the consensus figures meaningfully,” said Homin Lee , strategist at Lombard Odier Singapore. “If shipments through the Strait of Hormuz do not recover meaningfully after these more encouraging signals, then the downward revisions in the consensus earnings will accelerate sharply.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 5.2%, the most since April 2025. European stocks also surged, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index up as much as much as 2.5%, while US stocks rallied Tuesday afternoon to notch their best day since May . While Brent dipped under $100 a barrel for the first time in a week, it was still about 37% higher than before the war started. Higher energy costs are a threat to corporate earnings. The supply shock is expected to squeeze margins, erode pricing power and weigh on demand, while also risking a shift in rate expectations. “The next phase will be assessment of the damage to demand for the uncertainty and the cost recovery of the higher input costs,” ...
Gerasimov174/iStock via Getty Images By Benjamin Schroeder , Senior Rates Strategist | Michiel Tukker , Senior UK & Eurozone Rates Strategist Mixed messages and mixed market moves Risk sentiment has been stabilising as equities recover and bond spreads ease. Amid the mixed messaging, there were already signs that US President Trump was looking for a way out; markets pounced on headlines that the I...
Gerasimov174/iStock via Getty Images By Benjamin Schroeder , Senior Rates Strategist | Michiel Tukker , Senior UK & Eurozone Rates Strategist Mixed messages and mixed market moves Risk sentiment has been stabilising as equities recover and bond spreads ease. Amid the mixed messaging, there were already signs that US President Trump was looking for a way out; markets pounced on headlines that the Iranian president was willing to end the conflict, albeit sticking to Iran’s demands. But already ahead of the news, it appears markets were drawing comfort from Fed Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week. 2y UST yields have come down more than 20bp from their peak last Friday, though over the past session the belly of the curve has taken more of a lead. Powell might also draw some reassurance from the markets' inflation expectations, allowing him to look through the price spike. While short-dated inflation swaps remain at elevated levels, pointing to price increases above 3% in the near term, forward inflation points to only a short-lived spike, and indeed, longer expectations such as the 5y5y forward have even seen a gradual decline since the beginning of the conflict, signalling at least some pondering on longer-term growth concerns. Some recent job indicators, such as the JOLTs data, also point to diminishing potential for second-round effects with the jobs market cooling, although the market will want to wait for the payrolls data later this week. In EUR rates space, the read-through from inflation forwards has also remained rather benign, but admittedly not as clearly pointing lower as in the case of the US. The flash CPI reading on Tuesday was not as high as expected, but it is clearly too early to draw firm conclusions. Markets still attach a more than 50% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming April meeting and also a high probability that the ECB will end up hiking three times by the end of the year. At least pricing has not become more pronounced despite some of...