Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup, is part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s delegation to China this week. Photo: VCG Citigroup Inc. has cleared the final regulatory hurdles to set up a wholly foreign-owned securities firm on the Chinese mainland, ending a yearslong application process that lasted more than four years. The China Securities Regulatory Commission’s (CSRC) latest public list of pending a...
Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup, is part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s delegation to China this week. Photo: VCG Citigroup Inc. has cleared the final regulatory hurdles to set up a wholly foreign-owned securities firm on the Chinese mainland, ending a yearslong application process that lasted more than four years. The China Securities Regulatory Commission’s (CSRC) latest public list of pending administrative approvals no longer shows Citigroup Securities (China) Co. Ltd.’s application to establish a brokerage, indicating that the review process has been completed.
Shutthiphong Chandaeng/iStock via Getty Images By Padhraic Garvey, CFA , Regional Head of Research, Americas Inflation here, there, and everywhere Headline US producer price inflation has hit 6%, and headline US consumer price inflation is approaching 4%. Both of these readings are for April. By the May readings, they'll be higher still. The US economy will become a base "4% inflation economy." Wh...
Shutthiphong Chandaeng/iStock via Getty Images By Padhraic Garvey, CFA , Regional Head of Research, Americas Inflation here, there, and everywhere Headline US producer price inflation has hit 6%, and headline US consumer price inflation is approaching 4%. Both of these readings are for April. By the May readings, they'll be higher still. The US economy will become a base "4% inflation economy." While the expectation is for inflation to rise into the summer but then to ease through the fall, we still have to acknowledge the importance of current printed inflation rates. It's the latest delivered inflation. No ifs or buts or forecasts; it's simply there. The level of rates needs to be confronted against the elevated inflation rates that we have right now. The 10yr SOFR is now above 4%, approaching 4.05%. That's quite close to where printed CPI inflation is, meaning a puny implied real yield. Until inflation actually falls, this remains a relative value negative for rates. A low real yield means holders are barely keeping pace with inflation. Not good for Treasuries. Meanwhile, the Fed pitches the effective funds rate at 3.64% currently. That's below headline inflation. Kevin Warsh was finally confirmed by the Senate as the new Fed Chair but has no chance to cut rates against the current inflation environment, at least not any time soon. In fact, the dominant market discount attaches a greater probability to a hike than a cut as the next move. Also not good for Treasuries, as it pivots the front of the curve higher, placing relative value pressure on higher long tenor rates too. Similar in the eurozone, but even more stark. The ECB has the deposit rate at 2%, yet headline inflation is running at 3%. That's a negative real depo rate to the tune of 1%; crude as measured off the latest print. But accurate for the same reason. Plus, inflation remains under rising pressure. Then we look at the 10yr rate. Take your pick: the 10yr Bund yield or the 10yr EURIBOR rate. Both are...
Neocon Grandee Robert Kagan Issues Surprise Scathing Critique Of Iran War Via Middle East Eye Robert Kagan, one of the United States’ most prominent neoconservative voices and a long-time pro-Israel hawk, has warned that Washington is heading towards "total defeat" in its war on Iran - a setback he says “can neither be repaired nor ignored”. Writing in The Atlantic , Kagan said the damage inflicte...
Neocon Grandee Robert Kagan Issues Surprise Scathing Critique Of Iran War Via Middle East Eye Robert Kagan, one of the United States’ most prominent neoconservative voices and a long-time pro-Israel hawk, has warned that Washington is heading towards "total defeat" in its war on Iran - a setback he says “can neither be repaired nor ignored”. Writing in The Atlantic , Kagan said the damage inflicted by the conflict cannot be reversed. " There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done," he concluded bleakly. AFP via Getty Images Kagan, who co-founded the neoconservative think tank Project for the New American Century in 1997, helped shape a political current that pushed the US to project military power globally. That doctrine culminated in the 2003 invasion of Iraq and deeply influenced the George W. Bush administration. He remained closely tied to that policy ecosystem, including through his wife, Victoria Nuland , who served as an advisor to the arch neoconservative Vice President Dick Cheney. For years, Kagan championed US interventionism - making his stark warning about the current war all the more striking. In his analysis, Kagan argued that control over the Strait of Hormuz has fundamentally shifted the balance of power. "With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world," Kagan noted. He added that the war has not only strengthened rivals such as China and Russia but has also eroded Washington’s global standing. "Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to America's failure," he said. 'Disastrous for Israel' Kagan warned that US President Donald Trump now has limited options to reopen the Strait of ...
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made their opening remarks at the Great Hall of the People, with Xi saying the common interests between the United States and China outweigh their differences. (Source: Bloomberg)
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made their opening remarks at the Great Hall of the People, with Xi saying the common interests between the United States and China outweigh their differences. (Source: Bloomberg)