Interest-rate strategists at Morgan Stanley say this month’s Treasury market slump has hallmarks of forced selling of two-year notes, whose yields soared as traders abandoned wagers on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and began to price in a hike. Trade data from BrokerTec Inc. — the interdealer trading platform owned by CME Group Inc. — for the period since the US attacked Iran on Feb. 28 shows...
Interest-rate strategists at Morgan Stanley say this month’s Treasury market slump has hallmarks of forced selling of two-year notes, whose yields soared as traders abandoned wagers on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and began to price in a hike. Trade data from BrokerTec Inc. — the interdealer trading platform owned by CME Group Inc. — for the period since the US attacked Iran on Feb. 28 shows “clear evidence of reduced liquidity in the Treasury market, particularly in the front end,” Morgan Stanley strategists led by Eli Carter said in a report Wednesday. Longer-maturity tenors such as 10-year notes have enjoyed relative stability, they said. The evidence includes bigger gaps between the prices at which trading firms are willing to buy and sell, as well as increased volumes that wider bid-ask spreads — a transaction cost — normally would discourage, according to the report. For the most recently issued two-year note, bid-ask spreads were about 27% wider so far in March than in February, the strategists found. Their analysis was based on the average intraday spread for trades worth $50,000 per basis point. Meanwhile, volumes were the highest since April, when US President Donald Trump ’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariff announcement sparked a stock-market selloff that initially stoked demand for Treasuries. That gave way to rising yields as elevated market volatility caused an exodus from crowded trades. “Wider bid-ask spreads would tend to dissuade trading and the fact that volumes have picked up regardless reflects the idea that many of the trades have been done out of necessity, not desire,” the strategists said. The outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East unleashed a surge in oil prices that annihilated rate-cut expectations because of their potential to ignite consumer price inflation via its retail gasoline component. Two-year yields have risen about 50 basis points to 3.87% since the start of the conflict, however Morgan Stanley said its analysis show...
asbe/iStock via Getty Images Stock movements have become entirely dependent on headlines from Iran, moving inversely with oil prices, and any positive news could see the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ). However, the risk-reward outlook is increasingly negative. Even an end to the war and a collapse in oil prices would still leave US tech stocks priced for low single-digit returns. Any further...
asbe/iStock via Getty Images Stock movements have become entirely dependent on headlines from Iran, moving inversely with oil prices, and any positive news could see the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ). However, the risk-reward outlook is increasingly negative. Even an end to the war and a collapse in oil prices would still leave US tech stocks priced for low single-digit returns. Any further escalation in the war threatens to trigger much further losses at a time when economic uncertainty is rising. It is because stocks tend to perform poorly during times of economic uncertainty that they have historically offered a strong return outlook in the form of high free cash flow yields. Today, while the risks are extremely elevated, the premium offered to accept them is pitifully low. For the equity risk premium to return to levels seen during previous crisis lows, the QQQ would have to fall by at least half. The Fundamentals Have Deteriorated Fasted Than Valuations Have Improved Since my last article on the QQQ in January, the ETF is down a few percent, and valuations have edged down in response. However, its relative attractiveness has actually deteriorated for two reasons: Rising Real Yields: Firstly, real long-term safe haven yields have risen alongside the rise in the Nasdaq 100 free cash flow yield. Long-term US inflation-linked Treasuries now yield 2.7%, which compares to a free cash flow yield of around 2.7% for the Nasdaq, which falls to 2.0% once factoring in the cost of stock-based compensation. This means that even if companies pay out all their free cash flow, they would need to grow these free cash flows in real terms at 0.7% annually just for return expectations to match those of US long-term inflation-linked bonds. QQQ FCF Yield Vs Long Term US TIPS Yield (Bloomberg) Falling Real Growth Outlook: Secondly, even under a scenario where there is a soft landing to the war, the rise in oil prices, disruptions to transport and travel, and the direct cost of ...
Archaeologists believe remains found in Maastricht, Netherlands, may be of soldier who inspired novel character More than three-and-a-half centuries after a musket ball to the throat put an end to decades of exemplary swashbuckling, the French soldier who inspired Alexandre Dumas and went on to be immortalised on the stage and screen – not to mention as a plucky cartoon dog – may rise again. Worke...
Archaeologists believe remains found in Maastricht, Netherlands, may be of soldier who inspired novel character More than three-and-a-half centuries after a musket ball to the throat put an end to decades of exemplary swashbuckling, the French soldier who inspired Alexandre Dumas and went on to be immortalised on the stage and screen – not to mention as a plucky cartoon dog – may rise again. Workers repairing a church in the Dutch city of Maastricht have discovered a skeleton that could belong to the 17th-century Gascon nobleman Charles de Batz-Castelmore – better known as d’Artagnan – whose exploits led Dumas to make him the hero of the Three Musketeers. Continue reading...
Sunshine Seeds/iStock via Getty Images A lawyer for Sibanye-Stillwater ( SBSW ) was shot and killed in downtown Johannesburg this week in what authorities said likely was a targeted attack, prompting fears from South Africa's business community. The 35-year-old litigation attorney was gunned down near a state office that mediates labor issues and was due to represent the company in a dispute with ...
Sunshine Seeds/iStock via Getty Images A lawyer for Sibanye-Stillwater ( SBSW ) was shot and killed in downtown Johannesburg this week in what authorities said likely was a targeted attack, prompting fears from South Africa's business community. The 35-year-old litigation attorney was gunned down near a state office that mediates labor issues and was due to represent the company in a dispute with some employees. Her death follows the September killing of a bankruptcy lawyer in the city, which was the latest in a string of murders of insolvency practitioners, tax consultants, and other professionals. The murder has intensified scrutiny around labor tensions in South Africa's mining sector, even as Sibanye-Stillwater ( SBSW ) recently secured a three-year wage agreement with major unions. "Legal professionals, investigators, prosecutors, and witnesses are increasingly exposed to intimidation and violence," a tactic used to "shield criminal networks from accountability," said Business Against Crime South Africa, a grouping that works with the South African government. More on Sibanye-Stillwater Sibanye Stillwater: I'm Not Willing To Bet On A Super-Cycle At This Stage Sibanye Stillwater: Lesser-Known PGM Play With A Turnaround Arc Sibanye Stillwater: Deep Value And A Major EPS Rebound Coming (Upgrade)
BofA Securities has upgraded Acadia Pharmaceuticals ( ACAD ) to buy from neutral following a recent 25% pullback in share price saying that the company's fundamentals are intact and the downturn was due to macro factors since the beginning of the year. The bank is maintaining its $29 price target (~38% upside based on March 24 close). BofA analysts say that steady Nuplazid (pimavanserin) sales can...
BofA Securities has upgraded Acadia Pharmaceuticals ( ACAD ) to buy from neutral following a recent 25% pullback in share price saying that the company's fundamentals are intact and the downturn was due to macro factors since the beginning of the year. The bank is maintaining its $29 price target (~38% upside based on March 24 close). BofA analysts say that steady Nuplazid (pimavanserin) sales can help protect against further downside, adding they are projecting $888M in peak sales in 2029. While the company estimates its pipeline could provide an $11B opportunity, the bank believes this figure is "currently discounted and could provide upside." The team noted remlifanserin, considered a next-generation version of Nuplazid, is due for a phase 2 data release between August and October. They give remlifanserin a 40% likelihood of success with $2.1B in nominal peak sales in 2038. BofA added that slowing Nuplazid growth, negative pipeline data, and continued stagnation in Daybue (trofinetide) growth are downside risks. More on Acadia Pharma Acadia Pharmaceuticals: Undervalued Despite Robust Revenues From Approved Drugs, With Pipeline Kicker ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation Acadia outlines 2026 revenue target up to $1.28B while advancing DAYBUE STIX and NUPLAZID growth Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Acadia Pharma
Elon Musk ’s lawyers are urging the Delaware Chancery Court’ s chief judge to step aside from lawsuits involving him and his companies, alleging she has shown bias against the billionaire after ruling against him in high-profile cases. In a filing concerning Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick , Musk’s attorneys pointed to a LinkedIn screenshot that they said shows she “supports” a post on the networ...
Elon Musk ’s lawyers are urging the Delaware Chancery Court’ s chief judge to step aside from lawsuits involving him and his companies, alleging she has shown bias against the billionaire after ruling against him in high-profile cases. In a filing concerning Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick , Musk’s attorneys pointed to a LinkedIn screenshot that they said shows she “supports” a post on the network celebrating Musk’s defeat in a California civil fraud trial as “the little guy” prevailing over “the richest man in the world.” McCormick, in a letter to lawyers , wrote that she does not support the post and while she may have hit the “support” button accidentally, she doesn’t think she did. The judge said she reported “suspicious activity” to LinkedIn and was locked out of her account when she tried to log in and check the status of that report. She said she prepared the letter prior to receiving the request that she recuse, which she said she will review. Musk’s attorneys claimed in their filing that the activity on McCormick’s LinkedIn account shows her predisposition to rule against him in violation of Delaware’s Judicial Code of Conduct, which requires judges to refrain from showing bias or prejudice. McCormick should recuse herself from the handful of Musk-related cases she is overseeing, the lawyers at Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan LLP said in the filing. A spokesman for the judge said she declined to comment beyond the letter. LinkedIn Post Musk’s lawyers said in the filing that the LinkedIn post that McCormick endorsed was written by a jury consultant who worked with lawyers for the Twitter investors who prevailed in some of their claims against Musk in a trial this month in California. “It was a pleasure working against you,” the consultant wrote in the post that was included in the filing. In the filing, Musk’s attorneys included a screenshot of the post saying that a heart hovering in an outstretched hand, referring to the support button, required “delibe...
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) looks caught between fear and opportunity following a sharp pullback. Investors are worried the company's AI spending could pressure profits, but if Azure, Copilot, and cloud growth keep delivering, this weakness may look like a major mispricing in hindsi
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) looks caught between fear and opportunity following a sharp pullback. Investors are worried the company's AI spending could pressure profits, but if Azure, Copilot, and cloud growth keep delivering, this weakness may look like a major mispricing in hindsi
Google is dramatically shortening its deadline readiness for the arrival of Q Day, the point at which existing quantum computers can break public-key cryptography algorithms that secure decades' worth of secrets belonging to militaries, banks, governments, and nearly every individual on earth. In a post published on Wednesday, Google said it is giving itself until 2029 to prepare for this event. T...
Google is dramatically shortening its deadline readiness for the arrival of Q Day, the point at which existing quantum computers can break public-key cryptography algorithms that secure decades' worth of secrets belonging to militaries, banks, governments, and nearly every individual on earth. In a post published on Wednesday, Google said it is giving itself until 2029 to prepare for this event. The post went on to warn that the rest of the world needs to follow suit by adopting PQC—short for post-quantum cryptography—algorithms to augment or replace elliptic curves and RSA, both of which will be broken. The end is nigh “As a pioneer in both quantum and PQC, it’s our responsibility to lead by example and share an ambitious timeline,” wrote Heather Adkins, Google’s VP of security engineering, and Sophie Schmieg, a senior cryptography engineer. “By doing this, we hope to provide the clarity and urgency needed to accelerate digital transitions not only for Google, but also across the industry.” Read full article Comments
Tony Anderson/DigitalVision via Getty Images The last several months have been absolutely brutal for shareholders of Interparfums ( IPAR ). Back in June of last year, I decided to downgrade the stock from a "Buy" to a "Hold." This decision was the result of the share price of the company continuing to underperform the market. Sadly, because of fundamental performance, the stock price was no longer...
Tony Anderson/DigitalVision via Getty Images The last several months have been absolutely brutal for shareholders of Interparfums ( IPAR ). Back in June of last year, I decided to downgrade the stock from a "Buy" to a "Hold." This decision was the result of the share price of the company continuing to underperform the market. Sadly, because of fundamental performance, the stock price was no longer as attractive as it was previously. If I could go back in time, I would have downgraded it further to a "Hold" because, since the time that article was published, shares have plummeted 28.3%. Over that same window of time, the S&P 500 is up 10.5%. The good news is that certain fundamental metrics are getting better. Revenue and net profits have been rising recently. But cash flows have been largely negative. From a valuation standpoint, the stock is starting to look a bit more attractive, especially because of the decline in share price. But even with this factored in, shares are not yet cheap enough to justify an upgrade. This means that maintaining it as a "Hold" candidate is the most logical approach. Taking a fresh whiff of Interparfums If you're new to Interparfums, then it's worth noting that the company operates in the fragrance business. Specifically, it produces and sells prestige fragrances and fragrance-related products. These operations are spread throughout the U nited States and Europe, with Europe accounting for the largest portion of the company's revenue. In fact, last year , about 68% of its sales came from Europe, with the company benefiting from certain prestige brands that it controls, such as Kate Spade, Karl Lagerfeld, Coach, Jimmy Choo, and others. Although the European operations of the business might sound like they cater only to Europe, the company actually distributes its products to more than 120 nations worldwide from this segment. The rest of sales, meanwhile, come from the U nited States , where the company sells its goods under trademarks o...