Getty Images The GLP-1 market remains one of the most attractive growth opportunities in global pharma. However, I think the current market narrative has become overly simplified: Novo Nordisk ( NVO ) is increasingly seen as losing ground , while Eli Lilly ( LLY ) is viewed as the clear leader in the GLP-1 market. In my view, the market is leaning too far in both directions. Novo Nordisk appears c...
Getty Images The GLP-1 market remains one of the most attractive growth opportunities in global pharma. However, I think the current market narrative has become overly simplified: Novo Nordisk ( NVO ) is increasingly seen as losing ground , while Eli Lilly ( LLY ) is viewed as the clear leader in the GLP-1 market. In my view, the market is leaning too far in both directions. Novo Nordisk appears cheap but faces headwinds that are unlikely to disappear any time soon. Eli Lilly continues to execute very well, but a lot is already priced in. What's more, the GLP-1 market is transitioning from a shortage-driven phase into a more normalized and more competitive environment. As a result, I see limited risk-reward for both companies at current levels and take a "Hold" stance on both companies. GLP-1 Market Grand View Research The GLP-1 obesity and diabetes market has grown significantly over the past approx. 2 to 3 years. It remains one of the most attractive growth markets in global pharma. According to Grand View Research, the obesity segment alone, of the GLP-1 market, is expected to grow at a CAGR of approx. 18.5% between 2025 and 2030. There is, however, a wide dispersion in estimates of the long-term market size. Depending on the source, estimates range from approx. USD 80 billion to USD 185 billion by the early 2030s. The direction is, in my opinion, clear, but this wide dispersion is a sign to me that in some cases expectations may be too optimistic with regard to current valuations. Over the past two to three years, the market has been dominated by a simple dynamic: demand significantly exceeded supply . This led to strong volume growth and the emergence of a new phenomenon: the compounding market. Patients were willing to pay out-of-pocket mainly because of the limited availability of branded products and high list prices from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. In my opinion, what we are now seeing is a transition into a normalized phase. Volumes continue to grow at a s...