Vladimir Zakharov/iStock via Getty Images By Michiel Tukker , Senior UK & Eurozone Rates Strategist | Padhraic Garvey, CFA , Regional Head of Research, Americas Politics are adding to the long list of bearish gilt forces Gilt yields continue to rise on the back of the political turmoil around Labour’s leadership, and yields can still push higher. The fear is that a new prime minister would have a ...
Vladimir Zakharov/iStock via Getty Images By Michiel Tukker , Senior UK & Eurozone Rates Strategist | Padhraic Garvey, CFA , Regional Head of Research, Americas Politics are adding to the long list of bearish gilt forces Gilt yields continue to rise on the back of the political turmoil around Labour’s leadership, and yields can still push higher. The fear is that a new prime minister would have a looser hand when it comes to fiscal policy. If this is the case, then increased near-term government spending would make further Bank of England easing even less likely whilst adding to the issuance of government bonds. Besides political and inflation risks, we also identify increasing gilt supply as a slow-moving force pushing up yields . Whereas the Fed has significantly reduced the pace of quantitative easing, the Bank of England still reduces its bond portfolio by around £70bn per year. We estimate that this has steepened the GBP swap curve by some 60bp more relative to the USD curve. And with bank reserves stabilised, the Bank of England does not necessarily need to taper quantitative tightening on the back of financial stability concerns. For gilt yields to make a material push lower, we would first need to see inflation risks come down. Higher oil prices are the main culprit, but the additional political risks make the picture even more complex. So, unless oil makes a significant move lower – which we’re sceptical about even if a deal were to be found in the near term – then gilt yields are likely to remain higher for the time being. US inflation added to the pain for Treasuries Tuesday saw headline US CPI inflation come in at 3.8% year-on-year for April. It was 2.4% before the war. That's a 140bp uplift, and it's not done. As it is, we're set to hit 4% in May. Core hits 3% down the line. A persistence to the war, and we risk adding to that. Getting to 5% inflation is quite probable if it goes on and on. From here, we likely have another week of waiting and watching ...
The inflation rate in France increased to 2.20% in April from 1.70% in March of 2026, meeting expectations. The Consumer Price Index in France increased 1% in April of 2026 over the previous month, as estimated. This rise in inflation was once again due to the sharp acceleration in prices of energy, particularly those of petroleum products. The prices of services accelerated slightly year on year....
The inflation rate in France increased to 2.20% in April from 1.70% in March of 2026, meeting expectations. The Consumer Price Index in France increased 1% in April of 2026 over the previous month, as estimated. This rise in inflation was once again due to the sharp acceleration in prices of energy, particularly those of petroleum products. The prices of services accelerated slightly year on year. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices increased by 1.2% over one month, after +1.1% in March. Year on year, it rose by 2.5% after +2.0% in March. The unemployment rate in France rose to 8.1% in the first quarter of 2026, above forecasts of 7.8%, from 7.9% in the previous quarter. This marked the highest level since the first quarter of 2021. More on France U.S. Tariffs: A New Trade War? European markets retreat as U.S.-Iran peace deal hopes fade European equities muted with no signs of resolution to Middle East conflict Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on iShares MSCI France ETF Dividend scorecard for iShares MSCI France ETF
How can Labor say changes to property taxes are a win for young people, when they also lock in boomers’ ability to negatively gear their investment properties? Why is the NDIS receiving such severe cuts? Guardian Australia’s business reporter Luca Ittimani answers these questions about the 2026 federal budget and more This bold budget has grasped the nettle of tax and housing – but it may not be e...
How can Labor say changes to property taxes are a win for young people, when they also lock in boomers’ ability to negatively gear their investment properties? Why is the NDIS receiving such severe cuts? Guardian Australia’s business reporter Luca Ittimani answers these questions about the 2026 federal budget and more This bold budget has grasped the nettle of tax and housing – but it may not be enough to move the needle for younger Australians Budget 2026 Australia: Jim Chalmers goes for broke in federal budget facing twin threats of housing pain and Iran war disaster Explore all of our 2026 Australia federal budget coverage Continue reading...
A Congressional Budget Office analysis suggests the cost of the missile defense program could be $1.2 trillion over the next 20 years, a far heftier sum than the initial $175 billion price tag. (Image credit: Alex Brandon)
A Congressional Budget Office analysis suggests the cost of the missile defense program could be $1.2 trillion over the next 20 years, a far heftier sum than the initial $175 billion price tag. (Image credit: Alex Brandon)
Oli Scarff/Getty Images News BP ( BP ) said it acquired a 40% participating interest in a production-sharing agreement covering six oil and gas exploration blocks in Uzbekistan’s Ustyurt region. The blocks included in the agreement are Boyterak, Terengquduq, Birqori, Kharoy, Qoraqalpoq and Qulboy. BP said the deal expands its upstream presence in Central Asia and will include seismic surveys and e...
Oli Scarff/Getty Images News BP ( BP ) said it acquired a 40% participating interest in a production-sharing agreement covering six oil and gas exploration blocks in Uzbekistan’s Ustyurt region. The blocks included in the agreement are Boyterak, Terengquduq, Birqori, Kharoy, Qoraqalpoq and Qulboy. BP said the deal expands its upstream presence in Central Asia and will include seismic surveys and exploratory drilling activities. More on BP p.l.c. BP p.l.c.: Risks Are Now To The Upside BP: The Market Still Underestimates This Turnaround BP p.l.c. (BP) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript U.S. to loan more crude from Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of IEA release BP upgraded at RBC, saying company has earned 'second chance at first impression'