SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Crude oil futures closed lower Tuesday on rising hopes for an end to the war in the Middle East after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump would be willing to wind up military operations against Iran even before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, followed by unconfirmed reports that Iran's President Pezeshkian said the country could end the war ...
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Crude oil futures closed lower Tuesday on rising hopes for an end to the war in the Middle East after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump would be willing to wind up military operations against Iran even before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, followed by unconfirmed reports that Iran's President Pezeshkian said the country could end the war with certain guarantees. After hours, Trump told reporters at the White House that the U.S. could leave Iran within 2-3 weeks , suggesting the U.S. had largely accomplished its military goals and would leave it to other countries to resolve issues with the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in the day, a frustrated Trump took to social media to criticize European countries that had not supported the U.S. in the war, telling those facing fuel shortages to "Go get your oil!" Trump said countries such as Britain that are running out of jet fuel because the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed and refuse to aid the U.S. in its efforts should buy from the U.S. or they should "build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT." However, the U.S. is already producing record amounts of jet fuel , but has little capacity to increase exports, as U.S. refiners are producing 1.9M bbl/day of jet fuel, with ~300K left over for exports after domestic consumption, according to U.S. government data. Even if the U.S. was able to boost jet fuel production, the increase would pale in comparison to the nearly 8M bbl of the fuel the world consumes daily. While oil prices fell, the S&P 500 surged 2.9% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.8% on speculation that the U.S. and Iran may be looking for a way out of the conflict. "The oil market is going to dictate the end of this war," Spartan Capital's Peter Cardillo said in a note. "Trump knows that if oil prices go to $125 or $130 and stay there for a while, it's going to cause havoc for the economy." A global oil supply deficit of ~8.75M bbl/...
A key Commodity Futures Trading Commission official said the agency will use its powers to root out insider trading in prediction markets, as concerns about suspicious activity on the exchanges grow. “Unfortunately there’s a myth in mainstream media and social media that insider trading doesn’t apply in the prediction markets,” CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller said at a panel at New York Uni...
A key Commodity Futures Trading Commission official said the agency will use its powers to root out insider trading in prediction markets, as concerns about suspicious activity on the exchanges grow. “Unfortunately there’s a myth in mainstream media and social media that insider trading doesn’t apply in the prediction markets,” CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller said at a panel at New York University on Tuesday. “That is wrong.” The multi-billion dollar industry has surged over the past year, despite legal challenges from state officials who argue the federally-regulated exchanges should fall under their jurisdiction. That rapid expansion has also prompted concerns about insider trading as some wagers are thin enough that a single trader can move prices. Prediction market customers can place wagers on everything from college basketball games to geopolitical events. Earlier this year, a trader on Polymarket made approximately $400,000 betting on the ouster of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro , with many of the trades placed just before President Donald Trump publicly announced the US had captured him. Some lawmakers have since introduced bills seeking to crack down on insider trading and rein in the industry. The CFTC under the Trump administration has generally embraced prediction markets and the exchanges have recently taken a more proactive approach to insider trading. Both Kalshi and Polymarket announced new rules last week, as the public backlash has grown. Federal prosecutors have also said publicly they expect enforcement actions tied to the markets. There has, though, been significant debate in the industry about how the rules around insider trading would apply to the new types of wagers on prediction markets. Read More: Event Wagers Face $143 Million Insider Problem as War Bets Boom Miller said participants in CFTC-regulated markets are allowed to use their own knowledge and information to make trading decisions, such as a farmer seeing issues wit...
SW Photography/DigitalVision via Getty Images It has been a while since I last covered Chinese ETFs, so it's time for an update. A year ago, I published my initial analysis on the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF ( ASHR ), which was titled "Betting On The Chinese Economy At A Time Most Investors Are Fearful." Buying into the fear was rewarded, as the ETF achieved a 22.62% total return ...
SW Photography/DigitalVision via Getty Images It has been a while since I last covered Chinese ETFs, so it's time for an update. A year ago, I published my initial analysis on the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF ( ASHR ), which was titled "Betting On The Chinese Economy At A Time Most Investors Are Fearful." Buying into the fear was rewarded, as the ETF achieved a 22.62% total return in a year. A great result for a market that was widely labeled as "uninvestable." While outperformance is great, the earnings of the companies in the ETF also grew in the double digits. In other words, the fundamentals caught up with the share price appreciation, and there's no reason for me to turn less bullish. I keep my "Buy" rating. Also, the valuation gap between H-shares and A-shares has narrowed significantly since its peak a couple of years ago, which makes A-share ETFs even more attractive. In this article, we're going to tune out the short-term noise and focus on the fundamentals of the underlying companies this ETF holds. As a long-term investor, I tend to focus on the long term. If you're interested in short-term predictions, this article might not be for you. Holdings Breakdown ASHR has 286 holdings, and the top ten holdings represent 22.75% of the assets. It's not overly concentrated, and I view this diversification as a positive when we're investing in emerging markets that tend to be quite volatile. ASHR: Top 10 Holdings (Seeking Alpha) The sector breakdown also looks good, as no sector represents more than 24% of the assets. ASHR: Sector Breakdown (Seeking Alpha) I put special emphasis on the turnover rate; it shows how often an ETF rebalances its holdings. As long-term investors, we want to see a low turnover rate, as a high rate leads to unnecessary transaction fees. ASHR's turnover rate is 143%. It's well above my comfort zone at this point, and it's a negative we should keep in mind. A-Shares Vs. H-Shares ASHR only holds A-shares, and for companies with...