Oil prices have dropped as the US makes a diplomatic push to try to end the war with Iran. Bloomberg's Rong Wei Neo reports on the latest. (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil prices have dropped as the US makes a diplomatic push to try to end the war with Iran. Bloomberg's Rong Wei Neo reports on the latest. (Source: Bloomberg)
Nadzeya Haroshka/iStock via Getty Images Two Channels, One Shock Gold has declined sharply since the U.S.–Iran war triggered an oil price surge, with prices almost erasing year-to-date gains. Two distinct transmission channels explain the move, both originating from the oil shock. Higher real rates The real rate is the nominal bond yield minus inflation expectation, and it was once the primary lon...
Nadzeya Haroshka/iStock via Getty Images Two Channels, One Shock Gold has declined sharply since the U.S.–Iran war triggered an oil price surge, with prices almost erasing year-to-date gains. Two distinct transmission channels explain the move, both originating from the oil shock. Higher real rates The real rate is the nominal bond yield minus inflation expectation, and it was once the primary long-run anchor for gold. The U.S. 10Y nominal bond yield ( US10Y ) has been on the rise since early March, moving up from 3.96% to 4.39% as a result of the escalating Middle East conflict fueling energy prices and renewed inflation concerns. Similarly, the 10Y breakeven inflation rate has also moved up from 2.25% to 2.38% during this period of time, resulting in the 10Y TIPS (measure of real interest rates) moving up from 1.70% to 2.00%. Gold generates no income; when the risk-free rate rises, the opportunity cost of holding gold rises, and capital rotates out. The mechanism is consistent across cycles. However, the relationship has weakened since 2022. Gold continued to rise alongside higher real yields during 2022–2025, supported by strong central bank buying, geopolitical risk hedging demand, and persistent U.S. fiscal deficits. Petrodollar funding squeeze While the long-term inverse relationship between gold and real yields still carries some explanatory power, it has materially weakened since 2022. This suggests a second channel is playing a large role in the current gold price decline: a global dollar funding squeeze. Oil-importing economies, including China, India, Europe, Japan, and South Korea, collectively purchase about 70% of global crude. With oil prices up more than 40%, the dollar cost of the same energy volume has risen sharply. These countries must secure materially more dollars against export revenues and cash flows that adjust slowly. The resulting demand shock for dollars is structurally inelastic: energy imports cannot be deferred, and adding to that is m...
FabrikaCr/iStock via Getty Images In the fourth quarter of 2025, the MSCI World Selection Index (Fund Index) returned 3.98%. ESG equities outperformed broad developed markets, as represented by the MSCI World Index, which returned 3.12% in the quarter. The top-performing sectors over this time period were communication services and health care, returning 17.76% and 13.79%, respectively. Consumer d...
FabrikaCr/iStock via Getty Images In the fourth quarter of 2025, the MSCI World Selection Index (Fund Index) returned 3.98%. ESG equities outperformed broad developed markets, as represented by the MSCI World Index, which returned 3.12% in the quarter. The top-performing sectors over this time period were communication services and health care, returning 17.76% and 13.79%, respectively. Consumer discretionary and real estate were the worst-performing sectors for this quarter, with returns of -2.19% and -0.93%, respectively. The top-performing countries over this time period were Finland and Italy, returning 14.44% and 8.35% respectively. Israel and Portugal were the worst-performing countries for this quarter, with returns of -24.15% and -4.48%, respectively. The fourth quarter began with a U.S. government shutdown, which lasted into mid-November. The U.S. economy avoided major broad-based disruption. However, the shutdown hampered economic data collection creating a considerable information vacuum just as markets sought clarity on growth, inflation, and policy trajectories. Following resumed economic data, the broader U.S. macroeconomic landscape held firm with ongoing resilience amid a gradually cooling labor market. The downside labor market risk kept U.S. Federal Reserve easing in play, leading to two rate cuts in the quarter even as the economy expanded. The global tariff environment proved less disruptive than earlier fears. U.S. monthly tariff collections rose but remain well below levels implied by announced policies. Financial markets capped a strong 2025 with fourth-quarter gains in both equities and fixed income. Non-U.S. equities outpaced the U.S., leaving global equities with a low-single-digit gain. For the U.S., a strong third-quarter corporate earnings season helped bolster the earnings outlook heading into 2026. Artificial intelligence (AI) remained a central market topic, with investors shifting from broad-based enthusiasm to taking a more critical...
One of the federal vaccine advisors hand-selected by anti-vaccine Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has angrily resigned from his position, complaining of "drama" amid a spat with a spokesperson. Robert Malone—a former researcher turned outspoken anti-vaccine activist and conspiracy theorist—confirmed he was stepping down Tuesday afternoon to CQ Roll Call , which first reported the news. He t...
One of the federal vaccine advisors hand-selected by anti-vaccine Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has angrily resigned from his position, complaining of "drama" amid a spat with a spokesperson. Robert Malone—a former researcher turned outspoken anti-vaccine activist and conspiracy theorist—confirmed he was stepping down Tuesday afternoon to CQ Roll Call , which first reported the news. He told the outlet that his decision to quit came after a "miscommunication" about the fate of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). Kennedy had populated ACIP with anti-vaccine allies including Malone, who served as vice chair, after summarily firing all 17 experts on the panel last June. Last week, a federal judge temporarily blocked Kennedy's ACIP appointments , including Malone. He also stayed the changes that its members had made to federal vaccine guidance, as well as the dramatic overhaul of the childhood vaccine schedule Kennedy made without them. The judge ruled all the moves were likely illegal. On Thursday, Malone claimed on social media that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) had disbanded ACIP and planned to completely reconstitute it (again) , without appealing the judge's ruling or defending Kennedy's ACIP picks from the judge's claims that they were unqualified. But soon after, Malone retracted his claim, saying it was a miscommunication and that disbanding ACIP was merely one of the "options being considered." Read full article Comments