mustafaU/iStock via Getty Images Shorting the yen has become a one-way bet for investors, as Japan's relatively lower interest rates have allowed them to profit from both the higher interest rate in other currencies and the capital appreciation that has resulted from yen depreciation. This is the nature of the yen carry trade. Investors borrow money at low-interest rates in yen and invest the proc...
mustafaU/iStock via Getty Images Shorting the yen has become a one-way bet for investors, as Japan's relatively lower interest rates have allowed them to profit from both the higher interest rate in other currencies and the capital appreciation that has resulted from yen depreciation. This is the nature of the yen carry trade. Investors borrow money at low-interest rates in yen and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding currencies (or assets denominate in these currencies), and in doing so this drives down the yen allowing them to pocket capital gains as well as interest income. It is this dynamic that has caused the dollar to rise by 30% against the yen over the past four years, generating a total return of 55%. GBPJPY Total Return Vs SPX/TLT (Bloomberg) The weakness in the yen, particularly relative to emerging market currencies, is a key indicator of risk appetite. This can be seen in the above chart which shows how yen weakness moves hand in hand with the ratio of US stocks relative to US Treasuries. Why Yen Weakness Sows The Seeds Of Yen Strength While no one knows how long this trend will continue, what we do know is that the more the yen weakens, the more the fundamentals turn in the yen's favour. The reasons for this are twofold: Ballooning Net External Assets: Firstly, Japan is a huge net external creditor, meaning its overseas assets are significantly larger than its liabilities. As its assets are denominated in foreign currencies while liabilities are denominated in yen, yen weakness causes these net external assets to rise further. As these massive net external assets grow, the dividend and interest income they generate create a source of potential demand for yen once they are repatriated. Japan NIIP, % of GDP (Bloomberg) The total value of income from overseas investments is now equivalent to 7% of Japan's GDP and the only reason we have not seen this create appreciatory pressure on the yen is because the companies (the major financial firms and conglom...
As global oil prices continue to rise, Americans are feeling more pain at the pump. The average price for a gallon of gas has jumped more than 30% in the past month, from $2.93/gallon to $3.88/gallon. But as politicians like to remind us, the U.S. is a net petroleum exporter. So why does it matter how much oil costs halfway around the world? Can't we just "drill, baby, drill," and tap into our abu...
As global oil prices continue to rise, Americans are feeling more pain at the pump. The average price for a gallon of gas has jumped more than 30% in the past month, from $2.93/gallon to $3.88/gallon. But as politicians like to remind us, the U.S. is a net petroleum exporter. So why does it matter how much oil costs halfway around the world? Can't we just "drill, baby, drill," and tap into our abundant supply of homegrown crude oil? Sadly, it's not so simple. Here's why. Continue reading
"Will You Help Me Repair My Door?": Rapper Afroman Wins Major Free Speech Verdict Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org , When singer Joseph E. Foreman took the stand recently in Ohio, his message, like his lyrics, was hardly subtle. Indeed, counsel may have been unsure whether to examine or to hoist him. The rapper, known as “Afroman,” appeared in a suit modeled after an American fla...
"Will You Help Me Repair My Door?": Rapper Afroman Wins Major Free Speech Verdict Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org , When singer Joseph E. Foreman took the stand recently in Ohio, his message, like his lyrics, was hardly subtle. Indeed, counsel may have been unsure whether to examine or to hoist him. The rapper, known as “Afroman,” appeared in a suit modeled after an American flag with matching flag-patterned sunglasses . He lashed out at the seven police officers who raided his home and then sued him for publicly mocking them. He insisted that he was the virtual embodiment of the First Amendment in all of its glory. A jury agreed, at least insofar as finding him protected in his parody and public portrayal of the officers. Almost three years ago, I wrote about the case and expressed deep skepticism about the legal viability of the case in light of free speech protections for filming and criticizing public officials. Foreman, 51, became famous for a humorous rap song, “ Because I Got High. ” Later, he became even more famous after the released security camera footage of officers breaking down the door to his home and holding him and his family at bay with drawn weapons. While the warrant was granted to look for evidence of kidnapping, marijuana, and drug paraphernalia, they found nothing. Foreman then decided to go on the offensive with videos showing the raid and rap songs using his signature style to mock the officers (including one who seemed to stop in the midst of the raid to look at a fresh lemon pound cake on the counter. He told NPR , “I asked myself, as a powerless Black man in America, what can I do to the cops that kicked my door in, tried to kill me in front of my kids, stole my money, and disconnected my cameras? And the only thing I could come up with was make a funny rap song about them … use the money to pay for the damages they did and move on.” In “Will You Help Me Repair My Door?” he taunted the officers: “Did you find what you w...
Stock market indexes are having a bit of an identity crisis today. After Monday's enthusiastic rally, Wall Street woke up Tuesday morning and apparently forgot why it was so excited. Most stocks trended lower in the morning session but the market made a broad comeback by lunch ET. Trading volumes are lower than average, too. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) is clinging to modest ...
Stock market indexes are having a bit of an identity crisis today. After Monday's enthusiastic rally, Wall Street woke up Tuesday morning and apparently forgot why it was so excited. Most stocks trended lower in the morning session but the market made a broad comeback by lunch ET. Trading volumes are lower than average, too. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) is clinging to modest gains, just above the breakeven line at 1:20 p.m. ET. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is also treading water with a 0.2% drop. The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) , meanwhile, is the grumpiest of the bunch, down by about 0.7% as several large tech stocks take a breather. Continue reading
Get a jump start on the US trading day with Matt Miller and Dani Burger on "Bloomberg Open Interest." Stocks stumble while oil holds near triple digits as traders weigh escalating Middle East risks. Sumitomo Mitsui shuts down Jefferies takeover talk, while a bidding war heats up for Janus Henderson with a $52-a-share offer. And Michael Dell’s family office eyes opportunity in a shaken private cred...
Get a jump start on the US trading day with Matt Miller and Dani Burger on "Bloomberg Open Interest." Stocks stumble while oil holds near triple digits as traders weigh escalating Middle East risks. Sumitomo Mitsui shuts down Jefferies takeover talk, while a bidding war heats up for Janus Henderson with a $52-a-share offer. And Michael Dell’s family office eyes opportunity in a shaken private credit market. We hear from United CEO Scott Kirby on rising fuel costs and geopolitical turbulence, plus Bonaccord’s Brad Pilcher on stress building in private credit. And JP Morgan’s Phil Camporeale breaks down what surging oil means for inflation and the global economy. (Source: Bloomberg)
SpiffyJ/iStock via Getty Images Focus of Article: The focus of this two-part article is a very detailed analysis comparing Blackstone Secured Lending ( BXSL ) to some of the company’s business development company (“BDC”) peers (all sector peers I currently fully cover). I am writing this two-part article due to the continued requests that such an analysis be specifically performed on BXSL and some...
SpiffyJ/iStock via Getty Images Focus of Article: The focus of this two-part article is a very detailed analysis comparing Blackstone Secured Lending ( BXSL ) to some of the company’s business development company (“BDC”) peers (all sector peers I currently fully cover). I am writing this two-part article due to the continued requests that such an analysis be specifically performed on BXSL and some of the company’s BDC peers at periodic intervals. For readers who just want the summarized conclusions/results, I would suggest scrolling down to the “Conclusions Drawn” section at the bottom of each part of the article. PART 1 of this article analyzed BXSL’s recent quarterly results and compared several of the company’s metrics to 11 BDC peers. PART 1 helps lead to a better understanding of the topics and analysis that will be discussed in PART 2. PART 2 of this article compares BXSL’s recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several other highly unique dividend sustainability metrics to 11 BDC peers. This analysis will show recent past data with supporting documentation within Table 11 below. This article will also provide BXSL’s dividend sustainability projection for calendar Q2–Q3 2026, which is partially based on the metrics shown in Table 11 and several additional metrics shown in Table 12 below. By analyzing these metrics, one will better understand which BDC generally has a safer dividend rate going forward versus other peers who have a higher risk for a dividend decrease or a higher probability of a dividend increase and/or a special periodic dividend being declared. This is not the only data that should be examined to initiate a position within a particular stock/sector or project future dividend per share rates. However, I believe this analysis would be a good “starting point” to begin a discussion on the topic. At the end of this article, there will be a conclusion regarding various comparisons between BXSL and the 11 other BDC peers. In addition...
A Delta Air Lines Boeing 757-200 plane passes by the U.S. Capitol dome in Washington as it comes in for a landing at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on Sunday, November 9, 2025. Bill Clark | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images No sky perks for you! Delta Air Lines suspended its airport escorts and red coat services for members of Congress and their staff because of the ongoing partial shut...
A Delta Air Lines Boeing 757-200 plane passes by the U.S. Capitol dome in Washington as it comes in for a landing at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on Sunday, November 9, 2025. Bill Clark | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images No sky perks for you! Delta Air Lines suspended its airport escorts and red coat services for members of Congress and their staff because of the ongoing partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security , the air carrier said Tuesday. The move comes a week after Delta CEO Ed Bastian blasted Congress during an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box" for failing to authorize pay for Transportation Security Administration agents during the shutdown of the agency that includes TSA. "Due to the impact on resources from the longstanding government shutdown, Delta will temporarily suspend specialty services to members of Congress flying Delta," Delta said in a statement to CNBC. "Next to safety, Delta's no. 1 priority is taking care of our people and customers, which has become increasingly difficult in the current environment," the airline said. Delta's action was first reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution Delta's Capital Desk, which is a reservation line for members of Congress and staffers, remains open. But for now, those customers will be treated like any other passengers based on their respective Sky Miles status. The move comes as airports around the U.S., including major hubs in cities such as Atlanta, where Delta is based, are seeing extra-long security lines as a result of elevated absences by TSA agents, who are set to miss their second full paycheck this week. Read more CNBC politics coverage Pakistan offers to facilitate U.S.-Iran war talks as Trump, Tehran give mixed signals DCCC launches geotargeted digital ad campaign hitting GOP for gas prices Senate confirms Markwayne Mullin as next DHS secretary Bastian last week fumed to CNBC that it is "inexcusable that our security agents, our frontline agents, that are essentia...
Dozens of hedge-fund and oil-company executives are gathering this week in Caracas, where Venezuela ’s acting president, Delcy Rodriguez , signaled an interest in re-opening the nation’s economy to foreign businesses, according to people familiar with the matter. It was the largest meeting of investors since US forces captured then-President Nicolas Maduro in early January, elevating Rodriguez to ...
Dozens of hedge-fund and oil-company executives are gathering this week in Caracas, where Venezuela ’s acting president, Delcy Rodriguez , signaled an interest in re-opening the nation’s economy to foreign businesses, according to people familiar with the matter. It was the largest meeting of investors since US forces captured then-President Nicolas Maduro in early January, elevating Rodriguez to power. Rodriguez briefly met with a group of around 50 investors on Monday at the presidential palace as part of the gathering. She discussed her broader policy and legislative agenda and reinforced the need to get US sanctions lifted, though she had no timeline for when that may happen, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the meetings were private. In an appearance on state television Tuesday, Rodriguez confirmed the investor meeting and said Venezuela will send a diplomatic mission to the US later this week. Images showed Vice President of the Economy Ministry Calixto Ortega and Finance Minister Anabel Pereira were also present. The delegation — organized by US-based consultant Signum Global Advisors — included representatives from hedge funds and energy companies, the people said. Among them were executives at firms Kirkoswald Asset Management and Michael Platt ’s private investment firm BlueCrest , according to the people. Signum, which flew investors to Ukraine last year amid reconstruction efforts, had been in talks with a range of multinational companies and money managers and saw strong interest ahead of the trip, Chairman Charles Myers said earlier this year. Sharp Turn The meetings mark a sharp turn for a country that has been largely shut out of global markets for years by US sanctions targeting Maduro’s government. Since his arrest, the Trump administration has moved to restore diplomatic ties and ease restrictions on Venezuela’s energy sector, seeking to attract foreign capital into the oil-rich nation. President Donald Trump has repeatedly ...
US Treasuries sank after investors spurned an auction of two-year notes on concern that a protracted war in the Middle East will lead to an oil-driven resurgence in inflation. The drop extended on Tuesday after a $69 billion sale of two-year notes drew unexpectedly weak demand, and as the Wall Street Journal reported that the US is planning to deploy about 3,000 troops to the Middle East. Two-year...
US Treasuries sank after investors spurned an auction of two-year notes on concern that a protracted war in the Middle East will lead to an oil-driven resurgence in inflation. The drop extended on Tuesday after a $69 billion sale of two-year notes drew unexpectedly weak demand, and as the Wall Street Journal reported that the US is planning to deploy about 3,000 troops to the Middle East. Two-year yields rose by as much as 10 basis points to 3.96%, leading yields on all maturities higher. “Elevated oil prices have kept alive the small pricing for a Fed rate hike this year, and the uncertainty pushed potential auction demand to the sidelines for now,” said John Canavan , lead analyst at Oxford Economics. “The Treasury selloff appears to be primarily a knee-jerk reaction to the ugly auction results, although I believe the weak auction demand is due in part to higher oil prices.” Before the auction at 1 p.m. New York time, Treasury yields were higher by two to four basis points on the day, tracking a rise in the price of oil. Oil prices have been the bond market’s dominant driver since they began spiraling higher at the end of last month because of their potential to boost inflation gauges via retail gasoline. The two-year notes were awarded at 3.936%, higher than their yield in pre-auction trading just before the bidding deadline, a sign that demand fell short of expectations. The result was still the highest two-year auction yield since May. The previous two-year note auction on Feb. 24 produced the lowest yield since 2022. It was the first of three Treasury fixed-rate debt auctions this week, with the market preparing for $70 billion of five-year notes on Wednesday and $44 billion of seven-year notes on Thursday. Prevailing yields for Treasuries with two years to maturity have climbed by about half a percentage point since the end of February as the prospect of higher inflation has wiped out expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year. ...
Fortnite publisher Epic Games said Tuesday it is laying off 1,000 employees to save money as it grapples with industry-wide and company-specific challenges. The Cary, North Carolina-based video game publisher said in a memo to employees that the job cuts are not related to artificial intelligence. Games like Fortnite are also competing for people’s attention against social media and other forms of...
Fortnite publisher Epic Games said Tuesday it is laying off 1,000 employees to save money as it grapples with industry-wide and company-specific challenges. The Cary, North Carolina-based video game publisher said in a memo to employees that the job cuts are not related to artificial intelligence. Games like Fortnite are also competing for people’s attention against social media and other forms of online entertainment.
Today on the Big Take podcast, Todd Woody and Akshat Rathi join Sarah Holder to trace what tumultuous oil prices could mean for consumers as well as corporate and government investment in green energy. (Source: Bloomberg)
Today on the Big Take podcast, Todd Woody and Akshat Rathi join Sarah Holder to trace what tumultuous oil prices could mean for consumers as well as corporate and government investment in green energy. (Source: Bloomberg)
Henrik5000/iStock via Getty Images Short Term The data is so negative that brief and violent rallies are to be expected. Net stock selling has consistently outpaced buying for each of the last four weeks. For example, 85% of the NYSE stocks and 81% of NASDAQ stocks fell in the latest week. As Barron’s noted, “cash is looking more appealing since stock market hedges, bonds, and gold are no longer w...
Henrik5000/iStock via Getty Images Short Term The data is so negative that brief and violent rallies are to be expected. Net stock selling has consistently outpaced buying for each of the last four weeks. For example, 85% of the NYSE stocks and 81% of NASDAQ stocks fell in the latest week. As Barron’s noted, “cash is looking more appealing since stock market hedges, bonds, and gold are no longer working.” Employers are barely replacing the more expensive retiring labor in most manufacturing functions. There is a new player in the game: private credit. For the most part, issuers of private credit instruments don’t qualify for bank loans, and they don’t have long credit histories either. Much of this paper is held in new funds, which are being sold to retail channels. When one of these loans gets in trouble, it is referred to as a “cockroach”. Jaime Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase (*), warned that where there is one “cockroach” there is likely to be more. (*) JPM shares are owned in managed accounts. Market analysts are concerned that the S&P 500 Index has been locked in a narrow 300-point band for the last four months, with optimists and pessimists exchanging positions. This week, the lower boundary line was briefly pierced. If the “500” drops 3% more, then the 400-point range will become a difficult region for the market to rise beyond for quite a period. This fear may briefly spark some rallies from the derivative and short players. Longer-Term Implications of History One purpose of recorded history is to explain what happened, at least in the eyes of the winning survivors. The survivors, or their intellectual heirs, construct rules as to why certain actions are repeated. If there are enough repetitions, the rules become dictum, even though the battle conditions are different. We are taught from a very early age to follow rules without an understanding of the conditions that created them. This blind acceptance of rules has led to occasional great mistakes in poli...
imaginima/iStock via Getty Images The U.S. electric grid is critical for technological advances. Other issues facing the U.S. electric grid include its age and the desperate need for upgrades. Moreover, the grid is an Achilles heel for the United States. Five significant risks currently face the grid. The rapid retirement of “firm” baseload power (coal and gas) is outpacing the development of new,...
imaginima/iStock via Getty Images The U.S. electric grid is critical for technological advances. Other issues facing the U.S. electric grid include its age and the desperate need for upgrades. Moreover, the grid is an Achilles heel for the United States. Five significant risks currently face the grid. The rapid retirement of “firm” baseload power (coal and gas) is outpacing the development of new, reliable energy supplies. Growing demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, and domestic manufacturing is driving a surge in grid demand. Approximately 70% of transmission lines and transformers are over 25 years old. Bouts of severe weather, including heat waves, winter storms, and wildfires, have damaged the grid, and security threats during the current geopolitical turmoil have heightened the risk of cyberwarfare or direct physical attacks. The bottom line is that the U.S. electric grid faces a challenge in 2026. The Tema Electrification ETF ( VOLT ) owns a portfolio of companies working to modernize, improve, and advance the U.S. and global electric grids. Electricity Demand From AI Is Rising Electricity generation increases with demand, and the trend is bullish. Electricity Demand Forecasted Trend (eneroutlook.enerdata.net) While population growth and electric vehicles are increasing electricity demand, AI data centers are turbocharging that growth. According to a February 2025 Goldman Sachs report , AI will drive a 165% increase in data center power demand by 2030. Cash-Rich Technology Companies Increase The Odds Of M&A Activity In Power Generation The leading companies with the most substantial market caps in AI infrastructure and hardware are Nvidia ( NVDA ), Amazon ( AMZN ), and Microsoft ( MSFT ). In the same market-cap category, the companies developing the world’s most advanced generative AI models are Alphabet ( GOOG ) and Meta ( META ). While many other technology companies are working toward AI solutions, the five mentioned are market-cap leaders. Comp...
Now even the Dow is getting hit by technology stock selling. The blue-chip index was struggling to stay above breakeven even though a majority of its stocks were trading higher. Salesforce, International Business Machines, Microsoft, Amazon.
Now even the Dow is getting hit by technology stock selling. The blue-chip index was struggling to stay above breakeven even though a majority of its stocks were trading higher. Salesforce, International Business Machines, Microsoft, Amazon.