作者：艾莉森・莫罗、汉娜・齐亚迪 伊朗战争已酿成经济学家口中的 黑天鹅事件 ：一场始料未及、破坏力极强的冲击，无人能独善其身。 当所谓的热战在中东肆虐、数百平民丧生之际，一场 经济地震 正从波斯湾向外辐射，几乎所有人都将感受到它的冲击。 “这种局面下没有赢家，” 大西洋理事会国际经济学主席乔希・利普斯基表示。 本周，伊朗袭击卡塔尔液化天然气枢纽，能源冲击进一步加剧 —— 这是对以色列打击伊朗 南帕尔斯气田 设施的报复，该气田是全球最大天然气田的一部分 微博 。 天然气价格飙升已迫使多国政府限电：巴基斯坦停课两周；印度对制造商实施天然气配给；印度重要城市浦那的燃气火葬场已暂停运营。 尽管美国与以色列共同发动了这场战争，但美国经济受到的冲击可能最小，部分原因在于其全球领先的国内油气产量。 RSM 首席美国经济学家乔・布鲁苏拉斯周四告诉 CNN，水力压裂技术的发展以及对化石燃料依赖的降低，为美国经济提供了缓冲，使其能够抵御当前面临的此类石油与能源冲击。但他补充道，这种缓冲作用有限。 “如果战争持续，我们将面临相当显著的经济拖累，” 布鲁苏拉斯说。但 “我们不像亚洲那样，面临广泛的需求萎缩，这会迅速导致部分经济体陷入衰退。” 亚洲承压 韩国上周实施了 30 年来首次批发燃油价格上限。除临时停课外，巴基斯坦削减部分政府薪资以平衡预算；泰国要求部分官员居家办公；菲律宾实行四天工作制；孟加拉国实施燃油购买上限后，摩托车手排队数小时加油。 研究机构伍德麦肯兹指出，孟加拉国正大范围实施天然气配给，包括服装制造商，其产量将大幅削减。 作为亚洲最大经济体，中国虽为伊朗石油最大买家、约半数原油进口经霍尔木兹海峡，但受影响程度可能小于邻国。凯投宏观中国主管朱利安・埃文斯 - 普里查德表示，这主要是因为煤炭仍主导中国能源结构；此外，中国大力发展电动汽车与可再生能源，也缓解了化石燃料涨价的冲击。 埃文斯 - 普里查德在 3 月 10 日的报告中写道，中国还拥有可观的原油储备，估计可满足 120 天需求。他补充，这些因素甚至可能让中国制造商在全球贸易中获得优势，因为其竞争对手正遭受生产成本飙升的打击。 欧洲再遭冲击 对欧洲人而言，此次能源冲击似曾相识，令人不安。 四年前俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，欧洲各国政府推动能源来源多元化，减少对俄依赖。这一转变的受益者正是波斯湾地区。 利普斯基在布拉格与各国财长、央...

robtek/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction The last time I covered The Hershey Company ( HSY ), I highlighted how despite some improvements and solid fundamentals, the valuation remained fair, which is not enough to justify buying it from my point of view given the potential risks. Although the company remains in a solid financial position and could benefit from a potential macro recovery, the ongoing pressure and long-term fundamental threats shouldn’t be ignored, which is why HSY remains a Hold, as a better margin of safety is needed. Fundamentals Remain Solid The Hershey Company IR HSY reported a solid Q4 and 2025 overall, beating the market's top- and bottom-line estimates significantly and offering better guidance than expected, with the growth in pricing helping to more than offset the volume/mix. The free cash flow reached a solid $1.82 billion (slightly below the $1.93 billion seen in 2024), as the drop in CAPEX helped offset the macro pressure to some degree, while the year also came with the major acquisition of LesserEvil , growing their exposure to the high-growth better-for-you snack category. HSY also announced unifying its sweet, salty and protein portfolios into ONE , which they say would help bring more innovation, flavors, variety, etc., combining the execution of their commercial activity and centralizing their global brand marketing. The Hershey Company IR As for the guidance, the company expects a solid 4% to 5% growth in net sales (with about 150 b.p. coming from the LesserEvil acquisition), with the Adjusted EPS growing by 30% to 35% (mostly thanks to a mark-to-market loss unwinding, margin recovery and a normalization of tax effects), while CAPEX would reach between $425 million to $475 million, similar to last year's $454.62 million. The Hershey Company IR Financially, based on HSY's latest report , they remain in a solid position, with the current assets covering their current liabilities, and even though the debt is growing to f...

Key Points Diameter Capital acquired 850,000 shares of Caesars Entertainment in the fourth quarter. The quarter-end position value increased by $19.88 million as a result. Caesars position is outside the fund’s top five holdings. 10 stocks we like better than Caesars Entertainment › On February 17, 2026, Diameter Capital Partners LP disclosed a new position in Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR), acquiring 850,000 shares in an estimated $19.88 million trade based on quarterly average pricing. What happened According to an SEC filing dated February 17, 2026, Diameter Capital Partners LP established a new stake in Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR), buying 850,000 shares. The estimated value of this trade is approximately $19.88 million, based on the average price of Caesars shares during the fourth quarter. The new position’s quarter-end value also totaled $19.88 million, reflecting both the purchase and any intervening price movement. What else to know Top holdings after the filing: NASDAQ: SATS: $409.57 million (45.8% of AUM) NYSE: MBC: $66.35 million (7.4% of AUM) NYSE: TDS: $43.76 million (4.9% of AUM) NYSE: SILA: $40.79 million (4.6% of AUM) NYSE: FSK: $33.65 million (3.8% of AUM) As of Friday, shares were priced at $27.17, down 4% over the past year, compared to a 16% gain for the S&P 500. Company overview Metric Value Revenue (TTM) $11.5 billion Net income (TTM) ($502 million) Market capitalization $5.5 billion Price (as of Friday) $27.17 Company snapshot Caesars Entertainment offers casino gaming, hotel accommodations, dining, entertainment venues, and online sports betting and iGaming services across a portfolio of domestic properties. The firm generates revenue primarily from gaming operations, complemented by hospitality, food and beverage, and digital gaming segments. It targets leisure travelers, gaming enthusiasts, and sports bettors in the United States, with a focus on both on-property and online customer experiences. Caesars Entertainment is a leading...

格隆汇3月20日｜据Politico，俄罗斯向美国提出了一个互惠条件：如果华盛顿停止向乌克兰提供有关俄罗斯的情报，那么克里姆林宫将停止向伊朗提供诸如美国在中东的军事设施精确坐标等情报信息。两位了解美俄谈判情况的人士表示，这一提议是由俄罗斯特使德米特里耶夫向特朗普政府特使威特科夫和库什纳在上周于迈阿密举行的会晤中提出的。这些人士补充说，美国拒绝了该提议。然而，这样一个提议的出现本身就已经引发了欧洲外交官们的担忧，他们担心莫斯科正试图在当前跨大西洋关系的关键时刻，在欧洲和美国之间制造隔阂。

Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Nvidia Corporation ( NVDA ) has roughly matched the market and flatlined since we recommended it as a Strong Sell. The scale of the company is such that surprised articles were written when the share price didn't move for a $1 trillion revenue forecast. Despite the $1 trillion forecast on March 17 , our view is that the forecast represents a "peak" and the company remains overvalued. Nvidia Revenue Forecast Nvidia's forecast through 2027 is at least $1 trillion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin. "I see through 2027 at least trillion," noting that AI infrastructure investment is accelerating rapidly. Now, this wasn't broken up quarter by quarter or anything like that. The company had $51.3 billion in compute revenue in the most recent quarter based on "sustained strength in Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra." The company has guided for +$10 billion in Q1 FY27 revenue, which we expect to primarily come from datacenter compute. We're going to assume this $1 trillion guidance is for calendar years 2026-2027. Nvidia doesn't reveal the breakdown, and its quarters are offset slightly, but its Q1 FY27 guidance implies $20 billion in monthly compute revenue. For the two-year period, that's $480 billion. Another way to look at it, is Nvidia's networking-to-compute ratio is 1:5, and together the two make 91% of the company's quarterly revenue. The other remaining $6 billion in revenue is relatively fixed and not growing the same (gaming, etc.). At the end of the day, let's presume this is compute revenue, with a linear increase that finishes the period at ~$40 billion/month. That implies a 2027 exit rate of $150 billion/quarter in revenue. Nvidia Investor Presentation Modeling the quarterly results from this is difficult. It's just under 2 years from the present day, implying ~50% YoY growth for the next 2 years. Margins have sat in the mid-70s for a while now, so we'll assume 75% gross margins. This could actually decrease with skyro...

Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Nvidia Corporation ( NVDA ) has roughly matched the market and flatlined since we recommended it as a Strong Sell. The scale of the company is such that surprised articles were written when the share price didn't move for a $1 trillion revenue forecast. Despite the $1 trillion forecast on March 17 , our view is that the forecast represents a "peak" and the company remains overvalued. Nvidia Revenue Forecast Nvidia's forecast through 2027 is at least $1 trillion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin. "I see through 2027 at least trillion," noting that AI infrastructure investment is accelerating rapidly. Now, this wasn't broken up quarter by quarter or anything like that. The company had $51.3 billion in compute revenue in the most recent quarter based on "sustained strength in Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra." The company has guided for +$10 billion in Q1 FY27 revenue, which we expect to primarily come from datacenter compute. We're going to assume this $1 trillion guidance is for calendar years 2026-2027. Nvidia doesn't reveal the breakdown, and its quarters are offset slightly, but its Q1 FY27 guidance implies $20 billion in monthly compute revenue. For the two-year period, that's $480 billion. Another way to look at it, is Nvidia's networking-to-compute ratio is 1:5, and together the two make 91% of the company's quarterly revenue. The other remaining $6 billion in revenue is relatively fixed and not growing the same (gaming, etc.). At the end of the day, let's presume this is compute revenue, with a linear increase that finishes the period at ~$40 billion/month. That implies a 2027 exit rate of $150 billion/quarter in revenue. Nvidia Investor Presentation Modeling the quarterly results from this is difficult. It's just under 2 years from the present day, implying ~50% YoY growth for the next 2 years. Margins have sat in the mid-70s for a while now, so we'll assume 75% gross margins. This could actually decrease with skyro...

Nvidia's $1 Trillion Forecast Is The Peak (NASDAQ:NVDA) seekingalpha.com

Astera Labs (ALAB 4.80%) is delivering explosive AI-driven growth, but the real story is what's below the surface. I break down how margin pressure, Amazon-linked overhang, and a premium valuation are creating a fascinating, yet risky, bullish setup, and why this conflict could shape the next major move in the stock. Stock prices used were the market prices of March 11, 2026. The video was published on March 17, 2026.

Jeff Bezos is looking to raise $100 billion dollars for a new fund. According to the Wall Street Journal, the idea is to buy manufacturing companies and use AI to ramp automation. ​The project is described as a "manufacturing transformation vehicle." Bezos, who has a net worth of approximately $250 billion as of late last year, is reportedly reaching out to major financial players in the Middle East and Singapore to raise money to make it happen ​Bezos is reportedly looking to disrupt large industries, including aerospace, chipmaking and defense. Most Read in Manufacturing: Last year, The New York Times reported that Bezos would return to an operational role for the first time since 2021, when he stepped down as Amazon CEO. He’ll serve as co-CEO of a new startup called Project Prometheus. Prometheus launched with some $6.2 billion in funding and a focus on using AI to engineer and manufacture hard goods, like cars, planes and computers. ​Project Prometheus reportedly built a staff of nearly 100 employees, including recruits from OpenAI, DeepMind, and Meta, to work on physical AI—machine learning systems that source real-world data to make real-time decisions. "A $100 billion bet on AI-driven manufacturing raises the stakes dramatically—but the real constraint won’t be AI, it’ll be engineering rigor. You can’t automate your way past safety, compliance, or physical constraints. If anything, AI will amplify those risks if the underlying data and standards aren’t rock solid," said Duane Newman, chief product officer of Accuris. "The manufacturers who win won’t just deploy AI—they’ll connect it to a trusted digital thread. Without a continually updated source of standards, requirements, and components, AI becomes fragmented fast. With it, you can actually scale innovation with confidence." AI's Rapid Acceleration in Engineering & Industrial Environments ​In January, Newman wrote a column for IEN that discussed the sea change coming to the industry. Newman said, “Promethe...

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.64%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.40%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.70%. Stocks are under pressure today, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 3.75-month low as bond yields rise on concerns inflation will climb due to the war in Iran. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 6.75-month high today of 4.34%. The Iran war enters its twenty-first day as Iran presses ahead with attacks on neighboring states. Kuwait said it shut several units at its Al Ahmadi refinery after multiple strikes, and Bahrain reported a fire at a warehouse. Also, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said they intercepted Iranian missiles and drones today. Join 200K+ Subscribers: Market sentiment also worsened today after Axios reported that the US is considering plans to take over Iran’s Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil-export site, to put pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Market volatility may be higher than usual today due to the quarterly event known as triple witching. Citigroup estimates that about $5.7 trillion in March options, futures, and derivatives on stocks, indexes, and exchange-traded funds will expire today. President Trump on Thursday pressed for de-escalation of attacks on Middle East energy sites, following Iranian and Israeli strikes on major gas fields. Mr. Trump said the US wasn't involved in the South Pars attack and said Israel would refrain from further strikes on the site. Iran said it will target energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE in retaliation for US and Israeli airstrikes on its South Pars gas field and its Asaluyeh oil industry facilities. Crude oil prices (CLJ26) remain high despite attempts to boost global supplies. The IEA last Wednesday released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disr...

Calandagan, the world’s top-rated Flat horse in 2025, will fly to Dubai from Paris on Saturday to run in the Sheema Classic at Meydan next weekend, despite the continuing conflict in the Gulf region. The gelding’s owner, Aga Khan Studs, consulted staff already in Dubai before deciding to give the green light to Francis-Henri Graffard’s five-year-old, the winner of four Group One events last season including the Japan Cup in November. “We’ve been very happy with Calandagan,” Nemone Routh, the owner’s racing manager, said on Friday. “If we didn’t run in Dubai then we’d have been looking at races in the summer. He’s in great form and we already have a filly out there with staff. We’ve been keeping in close contact with them. “We’ve assessed the whole situation, worked the horse again this morning and he’s in great form so we’ve taken the decision to send him and run him next weekend.” Calandagan will lead a reduced European team on next weekend’s $30m (£22.5m) World Cup night card, when Willie Mullins’s Ethical Diamond, the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, and Charlie Appleby’s Rebel’s Romance, who took the Turf in 2022 and 2024, are among his possible rivals in the Sheema Classic. Dan Skelton has already set a British record for prize money won in a National Hunt season and is poised to become the first trainer to break the £4m barrier on Saturday, when he will send 16 runners to meetings at Newbury, Kelso and Bangor-on-Dee. Quick Guide Greg Wood's Saturday tips Show Kelso 1.00 World Of Fortunes 1.30 Judicial Deference 2.10 Our Peggy 2.40 Diamond Dealer 3.13 Dare To Shout 3.48 The G Wizard 4.23 King Kubala Bangor-On-Dee 1.07 Mossy Fen Coolio 1.37 Benign Dictator 2.15 Bo Cruz 2.45 Mooserwirt 3.20 In The Age 3.55 Epinephrine 4.30 Ayyadieh Newbury 1.15 Koktail Bleu 1.50 Thewoodcorner 2.25 Heltenham (nb) 3.00 Getawhisky 3.35 Diamond Street (nap) 4.10 Escapeandevade 4.45 Ballycamus Southwell 1.43 Tuscan Point 2.20 Ribston Pippin 2.53 Timber Twelve 3.28 Welbury 4.03 Baandee ...

A family has welcomed a coroner’s conclusion that ambulance delays possibly contributed to their father’s death in 2019 after enduring “years of distress trying to pursue answers”. The family of Peter Coates said they had been met with “delays and resistance” from a regional ambulance service as they tried to discover the full circumstances of his final minutes. Kellie Coates, the daughter of Peter, said: “This process for us has not just been about managing grief it has been about challenging a system that seems to be more focused on protecting itself than it is on acknowledging and learning from mistakes in its processes.” Coates died, aged 62, in the early hours of 14 March 2019 after a power cut stopped the mains-operated breathing equipment he needed to live his life. An inquest in Middlesbrough heard that Coates, of Redcar, rang 999 and an ambulance was dispatched by the North East ambulance service (NEAS). But the same power cut prevented the emergency vehicle from getting through electric gates at the station. A second ambulance stopped to refuel while on its way to the job. When they got there, the ambulance crew could not quickly find the key safe to gain entry, even though Coates had provided details when he rang. In a narrative conclusion on Friday, the coroner, Paul Appleton said ambulance delays had “possibly” contributed to Coates’s death. The incident had been treated as a category two ambulance call, the second highest priority, because Coates was able to speak. There is a target of 90% of incidents being reached in 40 minutes for category two. The 90% target is 15 minutes for category one calls. Appleton said he would be sending a Prevent Future Deaths report to NHS England expressing concern about there being a gap between category one and two, in that “patients who require an immediate response but who are not in cardiac or respiratory arrest” cannot be judged category one. Coates, who worked at Redcar British Steel all of his working life, had d...

Well, the data is out. AI startups accounted for 41% of the $128 billion in venture dollars raised by companies on Carta last year — a record-high annual share. In a sense, though, we knew that. Investors last year were voracious in deploying capital to AI startups, to the point that 10% of startups accounted for half of the funding. Those startups included Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI, which raised double-digit billions last year at sky-high valuations. Actually, they are still raising at an even more astounding velocity. In January, xAI raised a $20 billion Series E. In February, OpenAI snagged a $110 billon round, one of the largest private rounds ever raised, bringing the company closer than ever to a $1 trillion valuation. Size-wise, in between OpenAI and xAI was Anthropic, which raised a $30 billion Series G last month at a $380 billion valuation. OpenAI and Anthropic accounted for a heavy chunk of the $189 billion in global venture capital raised last month, and, alongside xAI, have teased IPOs for later this year that have left investors foaming at the mouth. The state of the venture market is now K-shaped — or bifurcated — in which capital remains concentrated in a select few firms that then back a handful of companies, while everyone else is, well, kinda just there. “While funding rounds have gotten slightly harder to raise, the capital for each round has increased,” Peter Walker, head of insights at Carta, told TechCrunch. “So fewer bets, but more capital. AI startups are raising bigger rounds not because they have lots of employees — they don’t — but because the cost of running AI models is high.” The latest Carta data also show that funds raised in 2023 and 2024 (after the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022) have posted the highest internal rate of return (IRR), compared with the declining IRR of funds raised between 2017 and 2020. The report views the increased IRR over the past few years as a positive indicator for the funds backing some of the leading star...

American Actor Chuck Norris in Sicily 1985. Frederic Meylan | Sygma | Getty Images Chuck Norris, the former martial arts champion and 1980s action-film hero who fought the bad guys in "Code of Silence," "Missing in Action" and "The Delta Force" and upheld the law in the TV series "Walker, Texas Ranger," died on Thursday, his family said in a statement on his Instagram account on Friday. "While we would like to keep the circumstances private, please know that he was surrounded by his family and was at peace," the statement read. The six-time undefeated World Professional Middleweight Karate Champion, whose tough-guy image inspired satirical "facts" that made him an Internet phenomenon, had been hospitalized in Hawaii on Thursday, Variety reported. Norris starred in more than two dozen films portraying silent loners, soldiers, lawmen, veterans and All-American heroes who captured criminals, released prisoners of war, rescued hostages and battled terrorists. With his roundhouse kicks he fought martial arts icon Bruce Lee in Rome's Colosseum in his 1973 film debut "The Way of the Dragon." Along with actor Sylvester Stallone, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Bruce Willis he helped defeat villain Jean-Claude Van Damme in the 2012 blockbuster "The Expendables 2." Time magazine described him as "the ultimate tough guy." "In his strictly wham-bam B-movie genre, Norris, a former karate champion, has become the undisputed superstar," it said in 1985. Norris dodged bullets, landed kicks squarely on an opponent's jaw and dismissed multiple villains at a time in his action-packed films. His macho image made him a hit at the box office and on the small screen. From 1993 to 2001, he played Sergeant Cordell Walker, an upstanding lawman, former Marine and martial arts expert in "Walker, Texas Ranger." The bearded actor, writer and producer became an online cult hero in 2005 when an American student created what became Chuck Norris Facts, online jokes about the actor's physical prowess and m...

格隆汇3月20日丨据央视，一名白宫官员表示，尽管美国正向中东增派兵力，但美国总统唐纳德·特朗普目前“没有计划”向伊朗派遣地面部队。该官员称，特朗普仍保留所有军事选项，且不会公开具体战略部署。针对外界有关美方可能占领或封锁伊朗哈尔克岛的报道，该官员表示，美军“随时可以打击该目标”。

Arm increasingly benefits from central processing units that are becoming “indispensable” in AI data centers.

Bond traders are scrambling for a new strategy after the oil-driven inflation shock triggered by the war in Iran scuppered the popular bet on further interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The trade suffered a total blowout this week as warnings from key central banks that the surge in crude could spark an inflation shock sent short-maturity yields soaring, and as traders fully erased expectations for further Fed easing in 2026. By Friday, with global benchmark oil prices holding around the highest since 2022 , the sentiment had flipped to such a degree that traders even saw a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by October. “As long as the war is in escalation mode and not de-escalation mode, the market will be more worried about inflation than growth, and reasonably so given recent history of supply shocks,” said John Briggs , head of US rates strategy at Natixis North America. “It is a good time to head for the sidelines to re-evaluate when the dust settles,” he said. Figuring out what to do next involves somehow trying to predict the trajectory of the war and oil and the impact on economic growth and inflation. That’s a tall task with the hostilities showing little sign of easing . Briggs was among Wall Street strategists caught by surprise by the relentless bond selloff, which pushed Treasury yields to the highest in months. Two-year rates eclipsed 3.75% this week, the upper end of Fed officials’ target range for overnight interest rates. They approached 3.9% on Friday — the highest since July on a closing basis. Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first time since July, while the 10-year climbed to 4.39%, the highest since August. Briggs closed several recommendations that he entered earlier this month on the view that a drawn-out conflict would weigh on the economy and keep Fed cuts on the table. One was a bet that the ...

唐纳德・特朗普总统多次承诺，得益于他那项 “宏大、美好的法案”，美国人今年将获得更高的退税。 但如今，他对伊朗发动的战争 —— 以及由此引发的油价飙升 —— 可能会让许多人的这笔意外之财大幅缩水，具体影响程度取决于中东冲突的持续时间。 可以肯定的是，得益于特朗普国内议程一揽子计划中的大规模减税政策，许多纳税人今年正享受着更丰厚的退税。这些政策包括提高标准扣除额、取消小费和加班费的征税，以及增加老年人的扣除额度。 根据美国国税局截至 3 月 6 日的最新数据，今年的平均退税额比去年高出约 350 美元，增幅近 11%。右翼智库税务基金会负责联邦税收政策的副总裁埃丽卡・约克表示，这一数字在 4 月 15 日报税季结束前可能会有所变化，但通常在 2 月下旬后，退税额就会趋于稳定。 美国国税局局长弗兰克・比西尼亚诺在 3 月 4 日的国会听证会上称，申请老年人、小费收入、加班费和车贷利息新增扣除项的纳税人，平均退税额增加了 775 美元。预计到报税季结束时，这一数字将升至 1000 美元。 然而，这笔额外收入到来之际，许多人正承受着加油站的更大压力。全美汽油均价已飙升至 3.91 美元，自 2 月 28 日美以对伊朗开战以来，每加仑上涨了 93 美分。 “如果你多拿到 300、500 美元的退税，但这笔钱转眼就要用来支付更高的油价和其他所有商品的涨价 —— 因为汽油和石油价格会影响一切 —— 那么你可能并不会觉得自己更宽裕了，” 约克表示。 她继续说道：“退税带来的缓解，可能无法产生共和党人和特朗普所期望的政治红利。” 多花 45 亿美元油费 过去三周，油价迅速攀升。伊朗与阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡实际上已被封锁，切断了全球 20% 的石油供应，推动油价暴涨。目前尚不清楚这场战争 —— 以及对中东能源枢纽的袭击 —— 何时会结束。 在线油价追踪机构 GasBuddy 的石油分析主管帕特里克・德哈恩表示，拥有两辆车的家庭，每周在汽油上的支出比冲突爆发前平均多 20 至 40 美元。 从整体来看，这一数字令人震惊。德哈恩估计，自 2 月 28 日油价飙升以来，美国司机在加油上已多花了近 45 亿美元。 “这笔钱原本可以流入经济的其他领域，但美国人却把它花在了加油站，” 他说。 穆迪分析公司高级总监斯科特・霍伊特表示，如果油价突破每加仑 4 美元并维持六个月，普通家庭在此期间的燃油支...

Douglas Rissing/iStock via Getty Images The Federal Reserve added $124.1 billion to its securities portfolio from November 26, 2025, to March 18, 2026. The round of “quantitative tightening” ended around December 1, 2025, and a new round of “quantitative easing” began. Since the banking week just before December 1, 2025, ended on November 26, 2025, this represents the closest thing we have to a “starting date” for collecting data for the “new” period of quantitative easing. This is a fairly sizeable increase in securities held outright by the Fed and includes the three-week time period that can be related to the start of the “war” in the Middle East…in Iran. Again, we can't associate the Fed's data exactly with the start of the “war” because the Fed's statistical week always begins on a Wednesday. So, the closest timing we have to the start of the “war” is the banking week beginning February 25, 2026. Since February 25, 2026, the portfolio of securities held outright at the Federal Reserve has increased by $36.9 billion. Again, this is a fairly sizeable increase for this time period considered. Here is what the chart looks like. Securities Held Outright (Federal Reserve) Just looking at these data, I don't think that one can really say that the Federal Reserve has “picked up” its acquisitions of securities in the past three weeks. It is just this result I am looking for. My feeling has been that one of the reasons that President Trump started the “war” was to get the federal government spending, and spending in a way that the Federal Reserve would need to support these purchases by acquiring a lot of the debt securities created by this added “war” expenditure. I have expressed this idea in my blog post “ The Trump Effort is Finding A Way .” But, whereas I cannot say assuredly that this rise in the Fed's securities holdings appears to support the idea of a “new” Federal Reserve effort to add securities to its portfolio… I think I am safe in saying that the rise in th...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 黄金恐将录得1983年以来最大单周跌幅，现货黄金本周迄今累计跌超9%，势将连续第八个交易日下跌，创2023年10月以来最长连跌；COMEX黄金期货本周已累跌将近10%。中东战争推高能源价格，并削弱了市场对降息的预期。 自美国和以色列上月开始袭击伊朗以来，被普遍视为避险资产的黄金每周都遭遇下跌。金价回落之际，美国国债收益率和美元走强，投资者抛售黄金以弥补其他资产损失，黄金ETF出现资金流出，全球持仓已抹去年初以来全部增量。彭博汇编的数据显示，黄金ETF将连续第三周出现资金流出，期间持仓减少逾60吨。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。

中东战争推高能源价格，并削弱了市场对降息的预期。自美国和以色列上月开始袭击伊朗以来，被普遍视为避险资产的黄金每周都遭遇下跌。在此期间，美元走强，而由于投资者担心能源价格高企对通胀和全球经济增长的连锁影响，股票和债券均遭到抛售。 本周，黄金录得1983年以来最大单周跌幅，现货黄金本周累计跌超10%，连续第八个交易日下跌，创2023年10月以来最长连跌，COMEX黄金期货本周累计跌超10%： 周五纽约尾盘，现货黄金跌3.25%，报4499.36美元/盎司，本周累计下跌10.37%，此前3月18日北京时间18:30之前持续窄幅纠缠于5000美元整数位心理关口，随后持续走低。 COMEX黄金期货跌2.16%，报4505.70美元/盎司，本周累跌11.07%，3月21日02:30跌至4478.40美元。 在媒体报道称美国正准备可能向伊朗部署地面部队后，美元和债券收益率上涨，黄金跌势加剧。 交易员将到10月美联储加息的押注提高至50%，因为担心旷日持久的冲突可能推升通胀。更高的利率对黄金不利，因为黄金本身不产生利息收益。 有分析师指出，黄金回调反映了获利了结与资金平仓的共同作用，背后是市场对货币政策宽松力度减弱的担忧。黄金价格在5200美元上方时吸引了大量买盘，使市场更容易出现回调。当价格开始下跌时，许多投资者触发了止损位——即价格跌至某一水平自动卖出的指令，从而迅速加剧了抛售。 此外，与股市大跌相关的被动抛售可能也加剧了金价下跌，投资者抛售黄金以弥补其他资产损失。而全球央行买入黄金放缓以及ETF资金流出进一步打压了市场情绪。彭博汇编的数据显示，以黄金为支撑的ETF已连续第三周出现资金流出，期间持仓减少超过60吨。全球持仓已抹去年初以来全部增量。 尽管近期出现回调，今年以来黄金仍上涨约4%。今年1月下旬，金价一度逼近每盎司5600美元的历史高点，受到投资者热情、各国央行买盘以及对美国总统特朗普可能威胁美联储独立性的担忧所支撑。 技术信号方面，尤其是移动平均线，也加大了下行压力。当前黄金下跌使得14日相对强弱指数（RSI）跌破30，这是一个衡量动能的指标，一些交易员将这一水平视为“超卖”。 其他贵金属方面，白银、钯金、铂金、铜均录得周度下跌： 周五纽约尾盘，现货白银跌6.49%，报68.0995美元/盎司，本周累计下跌15.55%，3月18日北京时间19:00以来持续走低，3月1...

Ming Shing Group ( MSW ) announced that its H1 2025 revenue fell 51.6% to $8.4M from $17.4M Y/Y. The company also reported a gross loss of $2.8M in H1 versus a gross profit of $2.4M Y/Y, while net income fell 466.1% to a net loss of $3.6M from $1.0M Y/Y, mainly due to the incurred gross loss. The shares fall 2.4% to $1.23, extending intraday decline. More on Ming Shing Group Holdings Limited Financial information for Ming Shing Group Holdings Limited