Pixelbizz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I last covered HelloFresh SE ( HLFFF , HELFY ) in July 2024 , arguing the company faced a fundamental scalability issue. My thesis was that HelloFresh relied on generous marketing expenses to grow their user base but failed to convert customers to long-term users at a satisfying rate. I bet that, long term, the company would have either managed to fix th...
Pixelbizz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I last covered HelloFresh SE ( HLFFF , HELFY ) in July 2024 , arguing the company faced a fundamental scalability issue. My thesis was that HelloFresh relied on generous marketing expenses to grow their user base but failed to convert customers to long-term users at a satisfying rate. I bet that, long term, the company would have either managed to fix this structural issue or pivoted to a new business model. Today, almost two years after my first coverage, I am reviewing HelloFresh again to assess whether their business model is sustainable and an investment case can be made. A flawed business model in two charts My bearish thesis for HelloFresh is fairly simple: the company relies on generous handouts to acquire new customers and retain existing ones, but customers do not actually remain loyal to the company to a satisfying degree (i.e., the churn rate is too high). The two charts below, which I updated from my 2024 coverage, show marketing expenses and operating income for HelloFresh on an annual basis. At that time, based on 2023 data, I argued what follows: The trend, in my opinion, is clear: while HelloFresh is indeed managing to scale its business, it does so primarily via handouts to acquire and retain customers. The company almost tripled in revenue since 2020, but it has done so by disproportionately increasing its marketing expenses. As a result, HelloFresh has been unable to steadily grow its Operating Income . Two years later, the picture is bittersweet and somewhat bearish. Marketing Expenses, P5Y (Author's elaboration of HelloFresh financial data) On the positive side, HelloFresh did manage to slow down their marketing expenses, which have stabilized at around ~€1.4 billion for the past three years. But at what cost? The company's revenue (not shown in these charts) has also stalled at about ~€7.9 billion (slightly decreasing since its 2023 peak). Operating Income, P5Y (Author's elaboration of HelloFresh fina...
Maskot/DigitalVision via Getty Images Article Thesis I wrote about Global Payments Inc. ( GPN ) at the beginning of February, when I saw it as a “Strong Buy,” with the stock around $71 and my fair value estimate around $138. Besides this undervaluation, there is a double-digit free cash flow yield, which allows them to return significant amounts to shareholders. Then, with the divestment of their ...
Maskot/DigitalVision via Getty Images Article Thesis I wrote about Global Payments Inc. ( GPN ) at the beginning of February, when I saw it as a “Strong Buy,” with the stock around $71 and my fair value estimate around $138. Besides this undervaluation, there is a double-digit free cash flow yield, which allows them to return significant amounts to shareholders. Then, with the divestment of their Issuer Solutions business segment, and with the acquisition of Worldpay, they have chances to finally have enough scale in their Merchant Solutions business to generate a higher ROIC (Return On Invested Capital), which would eventually translate into a narrow economic moat. And indeed, the stock jumped to about $82 after their last earnings report, even if that report didn’t bring some new positive surprises. But then, the conflict began in the Persian Gulf, and Global Payments is affected both directly and, possibly, indirectly. I will detail more in this article what changes I made to my model following their guidance from the earnings call and after incorporating some effects of this war. Business Developments 4Q 2025 results came with no big surprise, with Merchant Solutions net revenue growth accelerating from about 5% to about 6%. We can ignore Issuer Solutions , since they divested that segment. With strong free cash flow generation, they returned about $1B to shareholders in 2025, and they have a $7.5B capital return target for 2025 to 2027. They already have a $2.5B share repurchase authorization, so most of that $7.5B will come in 2027, because the first priority for now, with increased debt for the Worldpay acquisition, is to de-lever to a “3x net leverage target by the end of 2027." But what’s more important is their 2026 outlook for the combined company: Global Payments 2026 Outlook (Earnings Presentation) We can observe that we can expect about $2B capital returned to shareholders, mostly through share buybacks, because their dividend is minor. They expect abo...
CISPE claims that new conditions imposed by Broadcom have led to cost increases exceeding 1,000% for some providers. Credit: Michael Vi/Shutterstock.com. The Cloud Infrastructure Service Providers in Europe (CISPE) has lodged a competition complaint with the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Competition, challenging Broadcom’s recent actions in the European cloud market. The industry g...
CISPE claims that new conditions imposed by Broadcom have led to cost increases exceeding 1,000% for some providers. Credit: Michael Vi/Shutterstock.com. The Cloud Infrastructure Service Providers in Europe (CISPE) has lodged a competition complaint with the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Competition, challenging Broadcom’s recent actions in the European cloud market. The industry group alleges that Broadcom’s termination of its VMware Cloud Service Provider programme in Europe, combined with pricing changes and contractual demands, restricts access to VMware software for both customers and vendors across the region. CISPE is urging authorities to introduce interim measures designed to prevent what it describes as ongoing market abuse. According to CISPE, Broadcom’s termination of the programme in January 2026 left only a small number of selected partners able to offer VMware products. Most European cloud service providers lost their ability to sell these products, resulting in a significant loss of revenue for vendors and reduced choice for customers. CISPE claims that new conditions imposed by Broadcom, such as increased prices, bundling requirements, up-front payment demands and minimum commitments not based on actual usage, have led to cost increases exceeding 1,000% for some providers. CISPE argues that these developments could force many European cloud infrastructure suppliers out of the market and create situations where certain markets are dominated by a single provider dependent on Broadcom. The group also states that this undermines efforts to develop strategic autonomy within Europe’s cloud sector. As part of its complaint, CISPE requests the immediate suspension of Broadcom’s partner programme termination, reinstatement of the ‘white label’ programme allowing smaller providers access to VMware software, and explicit safeguards against retaliation from Broadcom, along with penalties for non-compliance. CISPE secretary general Francisco Ming...
Welcome to our guide to the commodities driving the global economy. Today, reporter Rong Wei Neo takes a closer look at Washington’s latest idea about how to restrain surging oil prices. Confronted with the reality that unprecedented disruption in the Persian Gulf leads to higher energy prices, the Trump administration is casting around for potential fixes. The latest, floated by Treasury Secretar...
Welcome to our guide to the commodities driving the global economy. Today, reporter Rong Wei Neo takes a closer look at Washington’s latest idea about how to restrain surging oil prices. Confronted with the reality that unprecedented disruption in the Persian Gulf leads to higher energy prices, the Trump administration is casting around for potential fixes. The latest, floated by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday, involves “unsanctioning” Iranian oil that is on the water. That, he told Fox Business, would release roughly 140 million barrels into the market. There is a lot to unpack here. First, the scattergunning of ideas coming from Washington. It’s a useful reminder of just how difficult it is to keep oil prices down when some of the world’s largest producers are unable to get their crude out of the ground and through the Strait of Hormuz — effectively blocked since the end of last month. Then, the practicalities. The US can arguably issue a waiver lifting sanctions on seaborne Iranian crude, just as it did for similar Russian cargoes . But that doesn’t mean new buyers will emerge for this oil. Virtually all of Iran’s oil is bought by Chinese customers, primarily independent refiners eager to take cut-price barrels. A US waiver would widen the pool of buyers — in theory. In reality, discounts would narrow, and any new buyers would face the challenge of structuring the deals and paying up while a plethora of restrictions on Iran remain in place. Then there is the inconvenient fact that the beneficiaries of any sale still sit in Tehran. Finally, there is the notion underpinning Bessent’s solution — the idea that seaborne supplies will keep on giving. Iran did add to its cargoes on the water as geopolitical tensions increased. But that number is now dwindling. The volume of crude oil and condensate stored on tankers at sea has fallen at a rate of about 1.8 million barrels a day since the war began in late February, according to data intelligence firm Vorte...
Key Points Ethereum is the world's most popular platform for developing decentralized applications. Ether is the native cryptocurrency in the Ethereum ecosystem, and it's used to pay fees whenever decentralized apps are activated. Ether should become more valuable as the Ethereum network expands, but activity appears to be stagnating. 10 stocks we like better than Ethereum › Ethereum is the world'...
Key Points Ethereum is the world's most popular platform for developing decentralized applications. Ether is the native cryptocurrency in the Ethereum ecosystem, and it's used to pay fees whenever decentralized apps are activated. Ether should become more valuable as the Ethereum network expands, but activity appears to be stagnating. 10 stocks we like better than Ethereum › Ethereum is the world's largest platform for developing decentralized applications, which are increasingly popular in industries like finance and gaming. Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) is the native cryptocurrency in the Ethereum ecosystem, where it helps facilitate everything from fee payments to money transfers. Ether set a new all-time high of $4,954 per coin last year, but it has since plummeted by more than 50% and trades at just $2,339 as of March 17. Investors have trimmed their exposure to speculative, high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies during the past six months in favor of safe assets like gold, amid heightened economic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » But Ether has experienced sharper sell-offs in the past, and it recovered to deliver spectacular gains on each occasion. Could this downturn be a buying opportunity ahead of a potential run to the $5,000 milestone? The leading destination for decentralized applications Decentralized apps are designed to function without the need for human intervention, so every user receives equal treatment based on a concrete set of rules. These rules are governed by slivers of computer code called smart contracts, which live on the Ethereum blockchain and typically can't be changed, ensuring no person or company can manipulate an app's core functions. Whenever someone uses a decentralized app, they activate smart contracts which trigger f...
Israel Vows No More Strikes On Iranian Energy Assets After South Pars Hit Sparks Lasting Shock At a Thursday evening press conference, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attempted to calm energy markets, saying Israel would halt further strikes on energy infrastructure after this week's attack on Iran's South Pars gas field triggered Iranian retaliation against Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex. The a...
Israel Vows No More Strikes On Iranian Energy Assets After South Pars Hit Sparks Lasting Shock At a Thursday evening press conference, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attempted to calm energy markets, saying Israel would halt further strikes on energy infrastructure after this week's attack on Iran's South Pars gas field triggered Iranian retaliation against Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex. The attacks on upstream oil and gas facilities by both sides sent shockwaves through global energy markets, potentially sparking disruptions for years. "Israel acted alone," Netanyahu said at a press conference on Thursday, after Israeli officials previously said they had informed the US about the attack. Netanyahu also said Israeli forces would assist US and allied forces in reopening the paralyzed Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and that the war would be over faster than people think. "I told him, 'Don't do that.' And he won't do that," Trump said Thursday at the White House, referring to Netanyahu's pledge not to hit Iranian energy assets anymore. Trump continued, "We get along great. It's coordinated. But on occasion, he'll do something, and if I don't like it, then — so we're not doing that." Shortly after South Pars was hit, Iranian missiles and drones struck the world's biggest liquefied natural gas plant in Qatar, which will take, according to QatarEnergy, possibly five years and $20 billion to repair. Trump threatened Iran with a complete wipeout of South Pars if Qatar's energy assets were hit further. UBS analyst Ed Abraham said the comments from Netanyahu "caused WTI to pull back 7% from Thursday's highs, along with Brent trading down 3% vs. the close." Brent crude futures are still well off the $119/bbl highs seen early Thursday, trading around $110/bbl at 0630 ET. WTI futures traded sub-$100/bbl, currently around $96/bbl. The Trump administration has taken several steps to combat triple-digit WTI prices, including the release of strategic reserves that must be returned ...
Over the long term, do you need to shore up your portfolio's defenses against risk or expose it to a bit more risk in the name of getting some more upside? With that framing, if you're looking to invest for a decade and you have $2,500 in hand, the choice between XRP (XRP 1.01%), the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD 4.12%) exchange-traded fund (ETF), and iShares Silver Trust (SLV 4.40%) isn't really about pi...
Over the long term, do you need to shore up your portfolio's defenses against risk or expose it to a bit more risk in the name of getting some more upside? With that framing, if you're looking to invest for a decade and you have $2,500 in hand, the choice between XRP (XRP 1.01%), the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD 4.12%) exchange-traded fund (ETF), and iShares Silver Trust (SLV 4.40%) isn't really about picking a winner so much as it's about deciding how much uncertainty you can live with and allocating accordingly. The answer here varies by investor. Still, one of these three is the weakest option, and the other two could plausibly coexist in the same portfolio, depending on your risk tolerance. Let's sort through these options and determine which investment might be right for you. XRP is building something; gold doesn't need to XRP is the most dynamic of these three assets because it's a living blockchain in active development, with the company behind it, Ripple, spending billions of dollars to embed it into institutional finance. Last year, Ripple's acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road gave the network direct access to clearing and settlement infrastructure handling trillions in value annually. Ripple also bought a slew of other crypto businesses in 2025, giving it the ability to offer its clients in financial institutions crypto custody, treasury services, and a stablecoin payments company, among others. Between all those acquisitions and the upgrades Ripple has planned for the XRP Ledger (XRPL), the dream of XRP becoming a financial tool that's valuable because it's needed to pay for various on-chain services looks a bit closer. The price, however, hasn't followed. XRP is still down roughly 60% from its all-time high of $3.65 set in mid-2025. For investors, that kind of volatility and disconnect between real progress and price action is more or less a given for an asset whose ceiling during the next 10 years could be multiples higher, but whose floor could also be mu...
Lux Blue/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Banco Santander ( SAN ) said its CEO, Mario Roberto Opice Leão, will step down by July 2026, as per SEC filing . Mario Leão served 11 years, including 5 as CEO and board member, and will continue until mid-2026 to ensure a smooth transition. Gilson Finkelsztain will be appointed as the new CEO, with experience at B3, Citibank, J.P. Morgan, and more. Banco...
Lux Blue/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Banco Santander ( SAN ) said its CEO, Mario Roberto Opice Leão, will step down by July 2026, as per SEC filing . Mario Leão served 11 years, including 5 as CEO and board member, and will continue until mid-2026 to ensure a smooth transition. Gilson Finkelsztain will be appointed as the new CEO, with experience at B3, Citibank, J.P. Morgan, and more. Banco Santander ( SAN ) shares traded higher to $10.95 in pre-market hours. More on Banco Santander Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) Analyst/Investor Day Transcript Banco Santander: The Risk-Reward Proposition Has Not Improved Much Following Recent Events Banco Santander, S.A. 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation EU expected to postpone boost in bank capital requirements - report Top Quant rated Spanish stocks as Trump threatens trade cut off with the country
SAP SE Chief Executive Officer Christian Klein said the defense industry has become the company’s fastest growing business line as military budgets soar around the world. “There’s high demand for better software, better AI to scale the businesses,” Klein said in an interview this week. The company gets about 10% of its revenue from the industry, he confirmed. The war in Iran is the latest major co...
SAP SE Chief Executive Officer Christian Klein said the defense industry has become the company’s fastest growing business line as military budgets soar around the world. “There’s high demand for better software, better AI to scale the businesses,” Klein said in an interview this week. The company gets about 10% of its revenue from the industry, he confirmed. The war in Iran is the latest major conflict to drive a sharp increase in military spending after European defense budgets boomed in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. With hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into the industry to increase weapons stocks and readiness, militaries globally have also expressed interest in projects to update their software, Klein said. Read more: SAP CEO Pushes AI Turnaround With New Teams, Use-Based Pricing SAP is migrating the German armed forces systems to newer SAP programs that will run logistics, personnel management and administration programs. While parts of the project have been delayed because of software errors, Klein said the company overcame them and showed that SAP could pull off complex plans for the military. “We had a problem. I’m the first one to admit that,” Klein said. Issues appeared when systems disconnected and then needed to upload recorded data when back online, a necessary function for naval warships that sometimes go dark for days. “Worldwide, there are different regulations, different data privacy requirements. It’s really a complex business, what we are solving,” Klein said. “But it is also a competitive advantage of SAP.” Still, it’s too soon to gauge the overall impact of global conflicts on SAP, Klein said. The Iran war has also upended the energy supply chain, finance, governments and transportation throughout the Middle East, all sectors that rely on enterprise resource planning systems like SAP’s. Companies including Saudi Aramco, Saudi Awwal Bank and Dubai-based mall operator Majid Al Futtaim are among the Walldorf, Germany-bas...
TLDR Nvidia stock is stuck in a $180–$190 range despite three major positive catalysts in recent weeks Blowout earnings, the GTC conference, and news of unblocked China chip sales all failed to move the stock Jensen Huang unveiled a $1 trillion revenue forecast for Blackwell and Vera Rubin hardware through 2027 60% of that forecast comes from hyperscalers, raising investor concerns about AI spendi...
TLDR Nvidia stock is stuck in a $180–$190 range despite three major positive catalysts in recent weeks Blowout earnings, the GTC conference, and news of unblocked China chip sales all failed to move the stock Jensen Huang unveiled a $1 trillion revenue forecast for Blackwell and Vera Rubin hardware through 2027 60% of that forecast comes from hyperscalers, raising investor concerns about AI spending sustainability Analysts say a surprise customer announcement could be what finally breaks the stock out of its range 💥 Find the Next KnockoutStock! Get live prices, charts, and KO Scores from KnockoutStocks.com , the data-driven platform ranking every stock by quality and breakout potential. Nvidia just had one of the better news weeks a chip company could ask for. Blowout earnings. A $1 trillion revenue forecast. Unblocked China sales. And yet, the stock barely moved. NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA NVDA ended the week trading around $178, still pinned inside the roughly $180–$190 range it has occupied for weeks. The problem isn’t Nvidia’s performance — it’s the market’s uncertainty about what comes next for its customers. At its GPU Technology Conference this week, CEO Jensen Huang revealed that orders for Nvidia’s Blackwell and Vera Rubin architectures are expected to hit $1 trillion through 2027. That’s double the forecast from a year ago. On paper, it’s a stunning number. But investors didn’t cheer. The stock dipped around 1% on the week. William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji put it plainly in a research note: the GTC conference “did little to address key investor concerns about the sustainability of AI spending by the hyperscalers — particularly as they run out of free cash flows and tap debt capital markets for additional financing.” That’s the core tension right now. Hyperscalers — the big cloud companies — account for 60% of Nvidia’s $1 trillion forecast. If they pull back on spending, Nvidia feels it fast. The 40% That Could Change Everything The other 40% of that fore...
Ermenegildo Zegna press release ( ZGN ): FY revenues of €1,916.9 million vs €1,946.6 million in FY 2024 (-1.5% YoY and +1.1% organic) Profit of €109.5 million, compared to €90.9 million in FY 2024 (+20% YoY) Proposed dividend per ordinary share of €0.12 More on Ermenegildo Zegna Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN) Q4 2025 Sales/Trading Call Transcript Ermenegildo Zegna: Valuation Catches Up As Visibility...
Ermenegildo Zegna press release ( ZGN ): FY revenues of €1,916.9 million vs €1,946.6 million in FY 2024 (-1.5% YoY and +1.1% organic) Profit of €109.5 million, compared to €90.9 million in FY 2024 (+20% YoY) Proposed dividend per ordinary share of €0.12 More on Ermenegildo Zegna Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN) Q4 2025 Sales/Trading Call Transcript Ermenegildo Zegna: Valuation Catches Up As Visibility Remains Limited (Rating Downgrade) Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Ermenegildo Zegna Historical earnings data for Ermenegildo Zegna Dividend scorecard for Ermenegildo Zegna
Bowman Consulting Group ( BWMN ) has entered into a $146.7M contract amendment with an agency of the U.S. government, bringing the value of the total contract to $177.7M. The original contract was entered into in December 2025. Bowman's services are expected to be completed over 36 months. More on Bowman Consulting Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (BWMN) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Bowman Consult...
Bowman Consulting Group ( BWMN ) has entered into a $146.7M contract amendment with an agency of the U.S. government, bringing the value of the total contract to $177.7M. The original contract was entered into in December 2025. Bowman's services are expected to be completed over 36 months. More on Bowman Consulting Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (BWMN) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation Bowman Consulting bags $3M critical minerals project Bowman Consulting outlines $495M–$510M 2026 revenue target following record backlog and RPT acquisition Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Bowman Consulting
"It seems to me the portrait reflects so many facets of the album - strength, power, vulnerability, determination and confusion, amongst many others - that it acts as a key to the whole listening experience. I love it."
"It seems to me the portrait reflects so many facets of the album - strength, power, vulnerability, determination and confusion, amongst many others - that it acts as a key to the whole listening experience. I love it."