Douglas Rissing With a war-induced surge in energy prices stoking stagflation fears, "oil is the new Fed chair" for now, Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakpoint BFG Wealth Partners, quipped on Wednesday after the central bank's rate decision and chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference. Powell did not put it that way, though he acknowledged that higher energy prices are s...
Douglas Rissing With a war-induced surge in energy prices stoking stagflation fears, "oil is the new Fed chair" for now, Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakpoint BFG Wealth Partners, quipped on Wednesday after the central bank's rate decision and chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference. Powell did not put it that way, though he acknowledged that higher energy prices are set to push up overall inflation in the near term, and the Fed still has no clear fix on how far the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict will spread or how long it will last. That, in turn, left the central bank doing what markets expected, holding rates steady at 3.50% - 3.75% and keeping its median projection for one quarter-point cut this year. Powell said during his presser that short-term inflation expectations have risen with oil, while longer-term expectations remain broadly anchored. Looking through an oil shock only works if longer-run implied inflation stays anchored, he noted. Still, "it's too soon to know the scope and duration of potential effects on the economy" from the Middle East conflict," he added. "The net of the oil shock" will be downward pressure on spending and upward pressure on inflation, Powell said. Oil may be dominating the headlines, but Powell also made clear it is not acting alone. Tariffs are still feeding goods inflation and services prices remain stubborn, leaving the Fed with a broader inflation problem than just crude. Oil ETFs: ( USO ), ( UCO ), ( DBO ), ( OILK ), and ( USL ). Natural Gas ETFs: ( UNG ), ( BOIL ), and ( UNL ). Treasury ETFs: ( TLT ), ( TLH ), ( IEF ), ( IEI ), ( SHY ), ( SGOV ), ( SCHO ), and ( BIL ). More on Crude Oil Futures, Brent Futures, etc. Hard Assets Weekly: The Signal That Precedes Falls In Hard Assets Appeared In Oil Commodities: Brent Consolidates Above $100 As Disruptions Persist Head And Shoulders In WTI - Is The Rally Over For Crude Oil? Stock Markets Mixed Ahead Of FOMC Yields climb across the c...
Getty Images Here is today's decision about a reduction in the Federal Reserve's policy rate of interest. "...the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent." "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook,...
Getty Images Here is today's decision about a reduction in the Federal Reserve's policy rate of interest. "...the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent." "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." "The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective." Otherwise, "the Committee" is going to carefully assess all data and all market conditions as we go forward. There was one vote for a lower rate...Stephen Miran. This was one of the shortest Federal Reserve statements I have ever seen. Basically...no change...will keep watching things closely...things are pretty strong! Well, this picture is generally what I have been writing about in the past few months. Economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace... the latest projection is slightly up. The unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months...the latest projection is slightly up. Inflation remains somewhat elevated...the latest projection is up modestly. And, when I write...slightly up...I mean 0.1 percent. So, the growth of real GDP...2.4% in 2026, up from 2.3% in December 2025. Unemployment is 4.4% in 2026, the same as was forecast in December 2025. Inflation is 2.7% in 2026, up from 2.4% in December 2025. And the forecasts for 2027 and 2028 are only modestly different. So....things have not really improved...but things have not really gotten worse since the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Little change...little need to change policy. The one thing that seems to be running through the thinking of the FOMC is the future of inflation. I get the idea in reading the Federal Reserve material released today that the problem of inflation continues to be just "off-stage" and if anything can...
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Key Points The One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduced a new tax deduction for rerirees. There are certain eligibility requirements that you have to meet to qualify for benefits. If you have remaining taxable income after taking other deductions, you may benefit from this new provision. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook › The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) provi...
Key Points The One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduced a new tax deduction for rerirees. There are certain eligibility requirements that you have to meet to qualify for benefits. If you have remaining taxable income after taking other deductions, you may benefit from this new provision. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook › The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) provided a generous new tax break to most retirees. Touted as a fulfillment of President Donald Trump's campaign pledge to eliminate taxes on Social Security, the new tax break in the OBBBA takes the form of a $6,000 tax deduction for eligible retirees. However, the deduction isn't directly related to Social Security and, in fact, a good number of people who collect Social Security benefits won't benefit from it at all. This group includes many people who get most of their money from Social Security. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » Why you may not benefit from the new tax deduction if most of your income comes from Social Security The new $6,000 deduction is available if you're 65 or older, regardless of whether you're collecting Social Security benefits or not. The full deduction is available for single tax filers with incomes that don't exceed $75,000 and married joint tax filers with incomes that don't exceed $150,000. For married couples, each spouse can claim the $6,000 to reduce the couple's combined taxable income, as long as both qualify independently. For many people who only collect Social Security, though, it's not going to be possible to take advantage of the deduction. That's because the deduction works by reducing taxable income, and any taxable income they have may already be eliminated by existing tax breaks for seniors. Deductions cannot reduce your tax bill below zero and resu...
Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the odds of a U.S. recession have been rising on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Odds are currently hovering around 30%, although they have topped 35% on both platforms at times this month. The question is whether investors should take heed and prepare for a potential recession. From a purely economic standpoint, the war and th...
Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the odds of a U.S. recession have been rising on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Odds are currently hovering around 30%, although they have topped 35% on both platforms at times this month. The question is whether investors should take heed and prepare for a potential recession. From a purely economic standpoint, the war and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could lead to higher prices at the pump, which is very likely to impact the U.S. consumer, who has already been struggling with high inflation stemming from tariffs. Meanwhile, the closure could lead to supply disruptions in other industries as well, as diverting ships to the Cape of Good Hope adds transport days and increases costs. As such, the longer this conflict lasts, the greater the potential threat of a recession this year. However, while the 30% odds of a recession are relatively high, the odds suggest the market is still leaning toward there not being a recession this year. There is so much spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure right now that it is driving tremendous growth. Meanwhile, AI is also helping make companies more efficient, allowing them to automate tasks and improve productivity. The combination of heavy capital investment and rising productivity should help support corporate earnings even as recession risks rise. What should investors do? At this point, I think investors should stick to their strategy for the most part. If you have investments in some more economically sensitive stocks, you could consider paring back some of your positions. However, I think that at the core of most investors' portfolios should be an index exchange-traded fund (ETF) like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 1.38%). The fund tracks the S&P 500, which is composed of the 500 largest traded U.S. stocks. This gives investors diversification and a fund with a strong long-term track record. The ETF has produced an average ...
Schiff: This War Is "Going To Cost A Lot Of Money We Don't Have" Last night, ZeroHedge hosted investor Peter Schiff and Rabobank's Michael Every to debate the question: Will the war in Iran accelerate the U.S. dollar’s collapse or is it a geopolitical chess move that could strengthen its hegemony? Moderated by Cornell professor Dave Collum, Schiff - based in Austrian economics - argued that the wa...
Schiff: This War Is "Going To Cost A Lot Of Money We Don't Have" Last night, ZeroHedge hosted investor Peter Schiff and Rabobank's Michael Every to debate the question: Will the war in Iran accelerate the U.S. dollar’s collapse or is it a geopolitical chess move that could strengthen its hegemony? Moderated by Cornell professor Dave Collum, Schiff - based in Austrian economics - argued that the war will do nothing but harm the American economy via higher prices and interest rates, while the dollar weakens. Every believes Trump can pull a rabbit out of a hat and come out of this with the U.S. and the dollar in a stronger position. Though, he notes that some measure of economic pain is likely a necessity of war. Below were the highlights for those short on time but we recommend listening to the full debate, linked at the bottom. War: An Economic Nightmare Schiff: “The war itself is inherently going to end up being inflationary… it’s going to cost a lot of money that we don’t have.” With no plan to raise taxes, the path is clear. “We’re just going to run bigger budget deficits,” Schiff said. This will weaken the dollar while raising interest rates, an ugly combo. “We’re going to have to borrow more money to fund the war… the Fed is going to monetize that debt because the markets can’t absorb it,” he said. “Interest on the debt is already the number two line item… and pretty soon it’s going to pass Social Security.” Already the Treasury is moving to suppress rising interest rates with the largest buybacks in history. JUST IN 🚨: U.S. Treasury just bought back $15 Billion of its own debt, the LARGEST U.S. Treasury buyback in history 🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/m3wgoKClQv — Barchart (@Barchart) March 17, 2026 Schiff is predicting a return of stagflation or as he’s called it, an “inflationary depression.” “We’re going to have more inflation to pay for this war… a weaker economy, upward pressure on interest rates.” Higher energy, food, and input costs feed into that dynamic. Housing ...
Keir Starmer is hoping to soften the impact of his government’s changes to the immigration system after a backlash from Labour MPs and a dramatic intervention from his former deputy Angela Rayner. The prime minister is considering exempting large numbers of people from the proposed changes, which would make it harder to achieve settled status in the UK, as he attempts to keep his restive party onb...
Keir Starmer is hoping to soften the impact of his government’s changes to the immigration system after a backlash from Labour MPs and a dramatic intervention from his former deputy Angela Rayner. The prime minister is considering exempting large numbers of people from the proposed changes, which would make it harder to achieve settled status in the UK, as he attempts to keep his restive party onboard. Under the plans, most people would have to wait 10 years to qualify for settled status, rather than the existing five-year period. But proposals included in a government consultation could involve migrants working in the public sector excluded from the changes, as well as those who are on the verge of being settled. Ministers are now debating how far they want to extend those exemptions but Downing Street said on Wednesday they would not cover everyone who had already arrived in the country, as demanded by Rayner and others. “In the four years before the election, we saw record levels of immigration,” a spokesperson for the prime minister said on Wednesday. “In the manifesto, we promised to deliver a fair and properly managed immigration system. We are considering responses to Home Office consultation, and we respond in line with our principles and values.” Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, announced the proposals earlier this month as part of a package of measures designed to limit the number of people entering the country. The plans would make refugee status temporary rather than permanent and the qualification period for indefinite leave to remain doubled to 10 years in most cases. Mahmood also announced a pilot scheme to pay families whose asylum claims have failed up to £40,000 to leave the country. If they refuse, she said, they would be ejected forcefully, even if that meant handcuffing children. The home secretary said a key part of the changes to indefinite leave to remain was making sure they applied retrospectively to those who were already in the countr...
Micron (MU) will report its second quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, as the AI market continues to drive massive demand for memory chips around the world. Memory, or RAM, is an integral component of data center servers for both GPU-based systems by Nvidia (NVDA) and CPU-based systems by the likes of Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD). The explosion in AI training and inferencing and th...
Micron (MU) will report its second quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, as the AI market continues to drive massive demand for memory chips around the world. Memory, or RAM, is an integral component of data center servers for both GPU-based systems by Nvidia (NVDA) and CPU-based systems by the likes of Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD). The explosion in AI training and inferencing and the broader push into agentic AI is driving a dearth of available memory supplies, raising prices and impacting the cost of consumer and enterprise electronics. In February, market research firm Gartner said the memory shortage will cause PC shipments to drop 10.4% in 2026 and smartphone shipments to decline 8.4%. Micron logo at the company’s booth at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, China, November 5, 2025. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov · REUTERS / Reuters Prices on those products will also increase 17% and 13%, versus 2025 levels. For the quarter, Micron is expected to post earnings per share (EPS) of $9.00 on revenue of $19.7 billion, that’s a year-over-year EPS increase of 476% and revenue increase of 145%. According to Bloomberg analyst consensus estimates, DRAM will bring in $15.7 billion, while storage will bring in roughly $4 billion in sales. Micron is one of a small number of global memory chip suppliers, alongside SK Hynix and Samsung. Those companies produce something called DRAM, which is used as part of the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) necessary for AI data centers, as well as in double data rate (DDR) memory, which is used in different permutations in smartphones, laptops, and most other computers. Because HBM offers higher margins, memory makers are building more chips for data centers than other electronics, increasing prices on consumer and enterprise devices. Micron, in particular, made a strategic move to kill its Crucial line of consumer memory products in favor of focusing on HBM chips. On Monday, Micron announced it plans to build a s...
Micron (MU) reported its second quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, beating expectations on the top and bottom lines and providing Q3 guidance well above estimates, as the AI market continues to drive massive demand for memory chips around the world. For the quarter, Micron reported earnings per share (EPS) of $12.20 on revenue of $23.86 billion. Wall Street was anticipating EPS ...
Micron (MU) reported its second quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, beating expectations on the top and bottom lines and providing Q3 guidance well above estimates, as the AI market continues to drive massive demand for memory chips around the world. For the quarter, Micron reported earnings per share (EPS) of $12.20 on revenue of $23.86 billion. Wall Street was anticipating EPS of $9.00 on revenue of $19.7 billion, year over year. Memory, or RAM, is an integral component of data center servers for both GPU-based systems by Nvidia (NVDA) and CPU-based systems by the likes of Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD). The explosion in AI training and inferencing and the broader push into agentic AI is driving a dearth of available memory supplies, raising prices and impacting the cost of consumer and enterprise electronics. In February, market research firm Gartner said the memory shortage will cause PC shipments to drop 10.4% in 2026 and smartphone shipments to decline 8.4%. Micron logo at the company’s booth at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, China, November 5, 2025. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov · REUTERS / Reuters Prices on those products will also increase 17% and 13%, versus 2025 levels. Micron is one of a small number of global memory chip suppliers, alongside SK Hynix and Samsung. Those companies produce something called DRAM, which is used as part of the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) necessary for AI data centers, as well as in double data rate (DDR) memory, which is used in different permutations in smartphones, laptops, and most other computers. Because HBM offers higher margins, memory makers are building more chips for data centers than other electronics, increasing prices on consumer and enterprise devices. Micron, in particular, made a strategic move to kill its Crucial line of consumer memory products in favor of focusing on HBM chips. On Monday, Micron announced it plans to build a second plant at a site it acquired in Taiwan in...
Micron (MU) stock fell more than 4% in early trading Thursday, despite posting better-than-anticipated second quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday. The company also provided strong guidance for the current quarter, topping Wall Street estimates. According to William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji, the market reaction is likely the result of fears that Micron won’t be able to continue its tor...
Micron (MU) stock fell more than 4% in early trading Thursday, despite posting better-than-anticipated second quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday. The company also provided strong guidance for the current quarter, topping Wall Street estimates. According to William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji, the market reaction is likely the result of fears that Micron won’t be able to continue its torrid growth rate. Micron stock is up more than 342% over the last 12 months and 58% year-to-date. For Q2, the company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $12.20 on revenue of $23.86 billion. That amounts to an EPS increase of 682% year-over-year and a revenue jump of 196%. Wall Street was anticipating EPS of $9.00 on revenue of $19.7 billion year over year. Micron also said it expects Q3 revenue above analysts’ estimates. Despite the initial market reaction, Naji, in a note to investors, wrote that Micron stock is trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 6 times William Blair’s 2026 estimates calendar 2026 estimate—below its historical multiple. “We continue to view Micron as a core beneficiary of the AI supercycle as memory accounts for a growing share of the total server bill-of-materials, bolstering Micron’s earnings power,” he added. BofA Global Research’s Vivek Arya was also positive on Micron’s results, raising the firm’s price objective on the stock to $500 from $400. But, he also said that the company’s gross margins could hit a peak in Q3. “[Micron fiscal Q3 gross margin] guide of 81.0% could be near peak cycle, eventually stabilizing toward 60-70% historical high prior to AI,” he wrote. The company posted gross margins of 74.9% in Q2. The AI market continues to drive massive demand for memory chips around the world. Memory, or RAM, is an integral component of data center servers for both GPU-based systems by Nvidia (NVDA) and CPU-based systems by the likes of Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). The explosion in AI training and inferencing and the broa...
Key Points Declining cryptocurrency prices are pressuring its earnings. The sell-off may turn out to be an overreaction, and investors are hoping for some more positive newsflow tomorrow. 10 stocks we like better than Gemini Space Station › Shares in Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) declined by more than 14% as of 2:30 p.m today. The company is set to report its fourth quarter 2025 results tomo...
Key Points Declining cryptocurrency prices are pressuring its earnings. The sell-off may turn out to be an overreaction, and investors are hoping for some more positive newsflow tomorrow. 10 stocks we like better than Gemini Space Station › Shares in Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) declined by more than 14% as of 2:30 p.m today. The company is set to report its fourth quarter 2025 results tomorrow, and the last thing investors wanted to hear about is a heavyweight financial company downgrading the stock today, but that's exactly what happened. Citi downgrades Gemini Space Station A Citi analyst downgraded the stock to "sell" from "neutral" and reduced the price target to $5.50, a level still notably below the price at the time of writing. The analystcited concerns about profitability, particularly in the current environment. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » It's hard to disagree with the analyst, as despite a recent improvement, the prices of key cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are still sharply lower this year. Lower prices tend to reduce trading volumes, which isn't good news for Gemini's transaction revenue. Moreover, lower prices also put pressure on Gemini's custodial fee revenue, as they drive down the value of the assets held in custody. That said, the company is doing pretty well in growing its credit card revenue, and investors are hoping for some positive numbers on it when the results are released tomorrow. Where next for Gemini Space Station The company certainly faces challenges, but the sell-off following the downgrade may be an overreaction. Management has already given preliminary estimates for the results, so there shouldn't be too many surprises. A quarter or two of recovery in cryptocurrency prices, plus ongoing growth in credit card revenue, could ...
By Jody Godoy WASHINGTON, March 18 (Reuters) - Paramount Skydance's proposed acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery will "absolutely not" have a fast track to approval because of political factors, the head of the U.S. Department of Justice's antitrust division told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday. "The idea that somehow enforcement has been politicized is ludicrous," said Acting Assistant A...
By Jody Godoy WASHINGTON, March 18 (Reuters) - Paramount Skydance's proposed acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery will "absolutely not" have a fast track to approval because of political factors, the head of the U.S. Department of Justice's antitrust division told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday. "The idea that somehow enforcement has been politicized is ludicrous," said Acting Assistant Attorney General Omeed Assefi, who declined to comment on ongoing probes. Analysts have viewed Paramount as facing an easier road to regulatory clearance in the U.S. in part because of its political connections. Paramount CEO David Ellison's father, billionaire Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, has cultivated ties with President Donald Trump. "Absolutely not," Assefi said in response to a question about whether Paramount would receive an easier way through deal review because of political factors. "I think even Ted Sarandos has been very vocal about the fact that he had a very open and fair and thorough review under us," Assefi said, referring to the CEO of Netflix. Netflix's competing bid for Warner Bros' studio and streaming assets was under review by the DOJ until it walked away from the deal rather than match Paramount's offer. Paramount maintains that its deal poses fewer problems for competition than Netflix's bid. California Attorney General Rob Bonta has said the state is probing the transaction. (Reporting by Jody Godoy in Washington; Editing by Howard Goller)
bankrx Questions surrounding the future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell resurfaced on Wednesday following the latest policy meeting by the Federal Open Market Committee, as investors weighed the possibility that leadership at the Federal Reserve could shift in the coming months. Prediction market data from Kalshi suggests traders are increasingly assigning odds to the prospect that Powell m...
bankrx Questions surrounding the future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell resurfaced on Wednesday following the latest policy meeting by the Federal Open Market Committee, as investors weighed the possibility that leadership at the Federal Reserve could shift in the coming months. Prediction market data from Kalshi suggests traders are increasingly assigning odds to the prospect that Powell may depart his role as a Federal Reserve governor before the end of the year. Current market pricing indicates roughly a 43% probability that Powell exits as Fed governor before June, while the odds rise to 59% before August. Looking further out, traders estimate a 73% chance that Powell will no longer serve as a governor before the start of 2027. Despite the speculation, Powell indicated that no definitive decision has been made about his long-term role at the central bank. “If my successor is not confirmed by the end of my term as chair, I would serve as chair pro tem until he is confirmed. That is what the law calls for,” Powell said. “On the question of whether I will serve as a governor after my term ends and the investigation is over, I have not made that decision yet. I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve,” Powell added. The remarks come as markets closely analyze leadership stability at the Fed while assessing the broader outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Market Tracking ETFs: ( DIA ), ( DDM ), ( DOG ), ( DXD ), ( SDOW ), ( SPY ), ( VOO ), ( IVV ), ( RSP ), ( SSO ), ( UPRO ), ( SH ), ( SDS ), ( SPXU ), ( QQQ ), ( QQQM ), ( TQQQ ), ( QID ), and ( SQQQ ). More on markets Fed policy outlook in focus as prediction markets bet on higher inflation Recessions are becoming less frequent as sector credit cycles take center stage, Apollo says 15 dividend stocks offering a 4% yield and double-digit returns in 2026 Micron is set to report earnings as traders price in key analyst call themes S&P 500’s 15 most overs...