Tim Robberts/DigitalVision via Getty Images The S&P 500 has soared over 12% since the start of April and 7% since the start of the Iran war, thanks to a +40% rebound in chip stocks. Half the rally has been accounted for by five companies - Alphabet ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ), Nvidia ( NVDA ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Broadcom ( AVGO ), and Apple ( AAPL ). At the same time, broader sectors like financials have pos...
Tim Robberts/DigitalVision via Getty Images The S&P 500 has soared over 12% since the start of April and 7% since the start of the Iran war, thanks to a +40% rebound in chip stocks. Half the rally has been accounted for by five companies - Alphabet ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ), Nvidia ( NVDA ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Broadcom ( AVGO ), and Apple ( AAPL ). At the same time, broader sectors like financials have posted near-flat earnings growth, and healthcare has negative growth. If we weight all 500 companies equally, the index has actually fallen slightly. Consumer sentiment in May fell to a fresh record low of 48.2 as the US 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose above 6.5%. Homebuilder stocks are off about 20% from their 2024 highs, and consumer companies are feeling the gloom. Consumer discretionary bellwethers like Whirlpool ( WHR ) are down 58% since last July, and McDonald’s ( MCD ) hit a new 52-week low today, -18% since February and now back to the same level as April 2023. “War in Iran resulted in recession-level industry decline in the U.S. as consumer confidence collapsed in late February and March.” — Marc Bitzer, CEO of Whirlpool, May 7, 2026 Consumer staples companies are generally more defensive, but the sector is down 6% since February, with companies like Heinz ( KHC ) down 18% since last July. Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane cited struggling consumers in his earnings call this week: “They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month. We’re seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets while they’re dipping into savings.” Gains in semiconductor stocks have pushed high-beta shares to record outperformance relative to the lower-volatility, more economically sensitive sectors of the S&P 500 (as shown below since 2014, courtesy of The Daily Number). The market cap of so-called “defensive” sector stocks has fallen to a record low 15% of the S&P 500 market cap (below since 1975, courtesy of Augur Infinity). It’s not that defensive sectors are deeply disc...
Derick Hudson/iStock Editorial via Getty Images NEW YORK (April 7) - We've long thought that hopes for a Starbucks ( SBUX ) stock recovery to its long-past its α glory days were sanguine and based more on promises than performance. We reiterate that view today. Last week's earnings release of the Second Quarter of fiscal 2026 numbers, with an earnings call at 4:15 EDT April 28, boosted the SBUX sh...
Derick Hudson/iStock Editorial via Getty Images NEW YORK (April 7) - We've long thought that hopes for a Starbucks ( SBUX ) stock recovery to its long-past its α glory days were sanguine and based more on promises than performance. We reiterate that view today. Last week's earnings release of the Second Quarter of fiscal 2026 numbers, with an earnings call at 4:15 EDT April 28, boosted the SBUX share price from $97 to $103 by the close at 4:00 EDT; then, up to over 106 the next day, April 29th. The stock prices has since receded, somewhat, to a closing price of $105 at a recent closing. The stock has been meandering around that price the last several days. SBUX Closing Prices 4/26 to 5/4 (Starbucks Investor Relations) At least one media outlet last week attributed the spike in the share price to the earnings beat. But if you set the hurdle low enough, even the Achilles could clear it after being hit with the arrow. As you can see below, the SBUX "estimate" for last weeks earnings release was the lowest EPS estimate in seventeen quarters! Indeed, if you look at this linke of the source data of this chart, the EPS estimate was the lowest since 2020Q3, when the estimate was just $0.33, coming out of the worst of the pandemic. (This chart of 17 quarters is just to show detail.) The Stuyvesant Square Consultancy from Alpha Query data. There are other issues with the SBUX earnings, too. Cash provided by operations is down 17% from the same quarter in 2025, yet the dividend is up nearly 2%. In 2025Q2, SBUX distributed about 59% of its $2,364 million cash flow from operations. But in 2026Q2, it distributed nearly 72% of a lower cash flow from operations, $1,962.2 millions. Despite the lower year-on-year quarterly operating cash flow, SBUX nevertheless distributed $26.5 million more in dividends last quarter than the same quarter in 2025. Although same store sales, or comparable sales - or "comps", for short - were reportedly up 6.2% globally, year-on-year, just 3.8% of comp...
AlexSecret/iStock via Getty Images Since 2013 (or thereabouts), investors have lived in a world where there appears to be no alternative to investing in US stocks and the S&P 500 in particular. And with the benefit of hindsight, investing in the S&P 500 was (in most cases) the right choice. After all, the US large-cap index is up about 250% over the last ten years, compared to a 70% gain for the F...
AlexSecret/iStock via Getty Images Since 2013 (or thereabouts), investors have lived in a world where there appears to be no alternative to investing in US stocks and the S&P 500 in particular. And with the benefit of hindsight, investing in the S&P 500 was (in most cases) the right choice. After all, the US large-cap index is up about 250% over the last ten years, compared to a 70% gain for the FTSE 100 and a measly 35% gain for the FTSE 250. The good news is that a large part of the S&P 500's growth has been driven by fundamentals, like earnings and dividend growth, but that isn’t the whole story. That 250% gain has also been driven by an increase in the S&P 500’s valuation multiples, and that is why my S&P 500 forecast for 2026 may surprise you (or, if you’ve been around here long enough, it may not). The good news: The S&P 500's earnings are growing Some will argue that the S&P 500’s expanded valuation is justified by its heavy exposure to AI winners and tech monopolists. These companies, so the argument goes, will continue to grow rapidly because “software is eating the world”. I am no AI expert, and I have no strong view on the long-term future of the Magnificent Seven (or whatever their current nickname might be). However, I do have an opinion on the S&P 500’s ability to generate earnings growth over a multi-decade period of technological transformation because we have hard data. More specifically, over the last 40 years, as the world was transformed by the information superhighway that is the Internet, the S&P 500 grew its earnings by about 7% per year, on average, and that growth rate was fairly stable across those four decades. If we smooth out the ups and downs of individual years by looking at cyclically adjusted earnings (their inflation-adjusted ten-year average), the picture is broadly the same. Over the last 40 years, the S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted earnings grew by just under 7% per year, on average. As for the S&P 500’s dividend, it grew by about...
In recent weeks, Intel and Apple reached a preliminary agreement for Intel to manufacture some of the chips that power Apple devices, while Intel also named former Qualcomm executive Alex Katouzian to lead its Client Computing and Physical AI Group and confirmed Pushkar Ranade as chief technology officer. Together with Intel’s new AI-focused leadership structure and an expanded push into factory o...
In recent weeks, Intel and Apple reached a preliminary agreement for Intel to manufacture some of the chips that power Apple devices, while Intel also named former Qualcomm executive Alex Katouzian to lead its Client Computing and Physical AI Group and confirmed Pushkar Ranade as chief technology officer. Together with Intel’s new AI-focused leadership structure and an expanded push into factory optimization and advanced computing, the Apple deal signals a broad attempt to reposition the...
Intel (INTC) Is Up 16.0% After Securing Preliminary Apple Chip Manufacturing Pact - What's Changed Yahoo Finance Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal, WSJ reports Yahoo Finance Apple, Intel Have Reached Preliminary Chip-Making Agreement WSJ Intel shares soar on Apple chip deal report. Here's why it signals a total pivot for chipmaking CNBC Apple, Intel reach preliminary chip-maki...
Intel (INTC) Is Up 16.0% After Securing Preliminary Apple Chip Manufacturing Pact - What's Changed Yahoo Finance Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal, WSJ reports Yahoo Finance Apple, Intel Have Reached Preliminary Chip-Making Agreement WSJ Intel shares soar on Apple chip deal report. Here's why it signals a total pivot for chipmaking CNBC Apple, Intel reach preliminary chip-making deal, WSJ reports Reuters Intel Has Reportedly Signed A Preliminary Deal To Produce Chips For Apple Engadget Intel has preliminary deal to make chips for Apple, WSJ reports OregonLive.com Apple Talks Just Changed Everything for Intel MarketBeat Intel Reportedly Lands a Chip Deal With Apple Thanks to Trump Gizmodo
Mick Hucknall belts out all the tunes on stage in Chile. Plus, the wonderfeul Hannah Waddingham hosts SNL UK! Here’s what to watch this evening 10.15pm, BBC Two Continue reading...
Mick Hucknall belts out all the tunes on stage in Chile. Plus, the wonderfeul Hannah Waddingham hosts SNL UK! Here’s what to watch this evening 10.15pm, BBC Two Continue reading...
South Korea is drawing growing interest from Middle Eastern oil producers seeking to store crude oil at the country’s petroleum reserve bases, the world’s sixth largest, amid a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a South Korean official and an expert on the matter have said. The strait’s closure in the wake of the US-Israel war on Iran has taken a toll not only on South Korea and other nat...
South Korea is drawing growing interest from Middle Eastern oil producers seeking to store crude oil at the country’s petroleum reserve bases, the world’s sixth largest, amid a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a South Korean official and an expert on the matter have said. The strait’s closure in the wake of the US-Israel war on Iran has taken a toll not only on South Korea and other nations dependent on oil imports but also oil-producing countries whose storage tanks are filling up...