Since January 2025, the S&P 500 has gained more than 14%, and for most of the past decade, betting against America has been a losing trade. But a major Wall Street institution is now saying that era may be coming to an end. Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at UBS, downgraded American equities to "benchmark" in a global equity portfolio -- effectively saying investors should look e...
Since January 2025, the S&P 500 has gained more than 14%, and for most of the past decade, betting against America has been a losing trade. But a major Wall Street institution is now saying that era may be coming to an end. Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at UBS, downgraded American equities to "benchmark" in a global equity portfolio -- effectively saying investors should look elsewhere for above-average gains. And, so far this year, the data backs him up. The MSCI World ex-US index has gained about 4.2% in 2026, while the S&P 500 is down slightly. What UBS is saying To be clear, this isn't a crash call -- another UBS analyst, Sean Simonds, still has a year-end S&P 500 target of 7,500, implying a more than 10% upside. What UBS argues is that the structural tailwinds that have justified years of American outperformance are weakening. What are these? The dollar is weakening: UBS sees "asymmetric structural downside risks" for the dollar and forecasts the euro and other currencies climbing as the dollar falls. Corporate buybacks have lost their edge: This was a key to American stock performance in the past, but global peers have now caught on. The combined shareholder yield from dividends and buybacks is now about half that of Europe. Valuations are extreme: UBS calculates that, on average, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for U.S. stocks are 35% above international stocks. That premium was just 4% in 2010. America isn't as predictable as it once was: The Trump administration's policy agenda has created an environment in which businesses are less able to predict and plan for the future. The trade tariffs, proposals to cap credit card rates, limits on private equity in housing, drug pricing scrutiny, and direct federal government equity investments in private companies add layers of uncertainty that are virtually impossible to model. What history says Two historical data points deserve serious attention. First, the UBS analysis shows that historical...
Key Points UBS has downgraded U.S. equities to "benchmark," citing factors like dollar depreciation, fading buyback advantages, and extreme valuations. The S&P 500's CAPE ratio sits near 40 -- a level only exceeded during the dot-com bubble. Investors should stress-test their portfolios and consider international diversification as U.S. outperformance may be slowing. 10 stocks we like better than ...
Key Points UBS has downgraded U.S. equities to "benchmark," citing factors like dollar depreciation, fading buyback advantages, and extreme valuations. The S&P 500's CAPE ratio sits near 40 -- a level only exceeded during the dot-com bubble. Investors should stress-test their portfolios and consider international diversification as U.S. outperformance may be slowing. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › Since January 2025, the S&P 500 has gained more than 14%, and for most of the past decade, betting against America has been a losing trade. But a major Wall Street institution is now saying that era may be coming to an end. Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at UBS, downgraded American equities to "benchmark" in a global equity portfolio -- effectively saying investors should look elsewhere for above-average gains. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » And, so far this year, the data backs him up. The MSCI World ex-US index has gained about 4.2% in 2026, while the S&P 500 is down slightly. What UBS is saying To be clear, this isn't a crash call -- another UBS analyst, Sean Simonds, still has a year-end S&P 500 target of 7,500, implying a more than 10% upside. What UBS argues is that the structural tailwinds that have justified years of American outperformance are weakening. What are these? The dollar is weakening: UBS sees "asymmetric structural downside risks" for the dollar and forecasts the euro and other currencies climbing as the dollar falls. Corporate buybacks have lost their edge: This was a key to American stock performance in the past, but global peers have now caught on. The combined shareholder yield from dividends and buybacks is now about half that of Europe. Valuations are extreme: UBS calculates that, on average, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios f...
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock rallied as much as 4% today, with shares touching $188 before pulling back but still closing firmly in the green. The move came as CEO Jensen Huang took the stage at the company’s annual GTC developer conference in San Jose, California. GTC runs March 16 through 19, and Huang’s keynote has historically been ... NVIDIA Rises as CEO Jensen Huang Takes the Stage at GTC Even...
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock rallied as much as 4% today, with shares touching $188 before pulling back but still closing firmly in the green. The move came as CEO Jensen Huang took the stage at the company’s annual GTC developer conference in San Jose, California. GTC runs March 16 through 19, and Huang’s keynote has historically been ... NVIDIA Rises as CEO Jensen Huang Takes the Stage at GTC Event
Getty Images The war in Iran has caused many investors to focus on geopolitics and the surging price of oil, but I think a bigger, long-term concern deserves our focus, and that is the growing likelihood that there appear to be structural challenges to the job market. In the past year, we have seen an increase in layoffs, and more of these appear to be AI-related. Investors have recently seen what...
Getty Images The war in Iran has caused many investors to focus on geopolitics and the surging price of oil, but I think a bigger, long-term concern deserves our focus, and that is the growing likelihood that there appear to be structural challenges to the job market. In the past year, we have seen an increase in layoffs, and more of these appear to be AI-related. Investors have recently seen what the "SaaS-pocalypse" has done to the software sector, and these stocks now trade near 52-week lows. With the job market already soft and more companies announcing layoffs, it seems that a "Job-pocalypse" is becoming increasingly likely. This could have profound effects on the economy and the stock market. Of course, technology has often created more jobs than it displaced in the past; however, the speed of AI advances is a major concern because, unlike past industrial revolutions that played out over years, the AI revolution appears to be displacing industries and jobs at speeds we haven't seen before. For me, one of the most concerning factors to consider is that we are already seeing AI impact the job market, and AI-related job losses seem to be accelerating. I fear that the job market could take yet another major hit when AI converges with the physical world in the form of humanoid robotics. There are plans by Elon Musk and Tesla ( TSLA ) to launch humanoid robots later this year , with high-volume commercial-scale production expected in 2027. Tesla's Optimus robot might cost just around $20,000, which is what just health insurance alone can cost for one employee. Humanoid robots could cause another massive wave of job losses and spike unemployment to levels we have not seen in many years. Let's take a closer look at all of this below: 2025 Set Records For Layoffs And 2026 Could Be Worse In spite of a reduction in job cuts for December 2025, the last report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas for 2025 was bleak overall, showing increasing weakness in the labor market towa...
A U.S. startup backed by Nvidia is investing billions of dollars to build artificial-intelligence models with a South Korean partner, accelerating the Trump administration’s plans to combat China by exporting American technology around the world. Reflection AI, a two-year-old company launched by former researchers at Google’s DeepMind AI lab, is working with Korean conglomerate Shinsegae Group to ...
A U.S. startup backed by Nvidia is investing billions of dollars to build artificial-intelligence models with a South Korean partner, accelerating the Trump administration’s plans to combat China by exporting American technology around the world. Reflection AI, a two-year-old company launched by former researchers at Google’s DeepMind AI lab, is working with Korean conglomerate Shinsegae Group to build a data center that will be one of the nation’s biggest facilities powering AI models, company and government officials said. The data center will be capable of consuming 250 megawatts, roughly the same amount of energy as a small American city.
Key Points Tabor Asset Management increased its stake in Mohawk Industries by 85,224 shares during the fourth quarter; the estimated trade size was $9.79 million based on quarterly average prices. The quarter-end position value rose by $7.96 million, reflecting both share addition and price movement. Post-trade, the fund held 154,292 MHK shares valued at $16.86 million. 10 stocks we like better th...
Key Points Tabor Asset Management increased its stake in Mohawk Industries by 85,224 shares during the fourth quarter; the estimated trade size was $9.79 million based on quarterly average prices. The quarter-end position value rose by $7.96 million, reflecting both share addition and price movement. Post-trade, the fund held 154,292 MHK shares valued at $16.86 million. 10 stocks we like better than Mohawk Industries › Tabor Asset Management disclosed a buy of 85,224 Mohawk Industries (NYSE:MHK) shares in its February 17, 2026, SEC filing, with an estimated transaction value of $9.79 million based on quarterly average pricing. What happened According to a Form 13-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on February 17, 2026, Tabor Asset Management bought 85,224 additional shares of Mohawk Industries, increasing its stake to 154,292 shares. The estimated transaction value, based on the average unadjusted closing price for the quarter, was $9.79 million. The quarter-end value of the position rose by $7.96 million, reflecting both the trade and stock price movement. What else to know This buy brings Mohawk Industries to 6.81% of the fund's reportable AUM after the quarter, outside Tabor Asset Management, LP’s top five holdings. Top holdings after the filing: NASDAQ: FIVE: $18.05 million (7.3% of AUM) NASDAQ: LZ: $17.51 million (7.1% of AUM) NYSE: W: $16.94 million (6.8% of AUM) NYSE: MHK: $16.86 million (6.8% of AUM) NYSE: CCL: $13.77 million (5.6% of AUM) As of Monday, Mohawk Industries shares were priced at $103.44, down 9% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500’s roughly 18% gain in the same period. Company overview Metric Value Revenue (TTM) $10.79 billion Net income (TTM) $369.90 million Price (as of Monday) $103.44 Company snapshot Mohawk Industries offers a comprehensive portfolio of flooring products, including ceramic and porcelain tile, natural stone, carpet, hardwood, laminate, vinyl, and related accessories across multiple brand...
MU stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. Street Upside into 2027 Analysts see further upside for Micron shares over the next year or so, supported by a clustered band of price targets in the low‑ to mid‑$400s versus a stock that has already rerated sharply on the AI memory story. That may look modest, but for a name that has more than doubled off the cycle trough, it reflects growi...
MU stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. Street Upside into 2027 Analysts see further upside for Micron shares over the next year or so, supported by a clustered band of price targets in the low‑ to mid‑$400s versus a stock that has already rerated sharply on the AI memory story. That may look modest, but for a name that has more than doubled off the cycle trough, it reflects growing conviction that current earnings power is sustainable rather than purely cyclical. With an average price target of $508.33 between the three most recent ratings over the past week, there’s an implied 13.86% upside for Micron. In its most recent quarterly report, Broadcom’s custom AI accelerators showed remarkable growth of 140% year-over-year, and networking revenue rose 60% year-over-year, constituting approximately one-third of total AI revenue, indicating a strong demand shift towards AI capabilities. With an average price target of $481.67 from the three most recent ratings in March, there’s an implied 47.28% upside for Broadcom. AI Demand as the Core Thesis For Micron, the bullish call rests on its unique position as the only U.S. supplier of high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) and on the company's disclosure that HBM capacity is effectively sold out through at least 2026, with orders already booked into 2027. That demand backdrop underpins forecasts for rapid revenue and EPS growth as pricing for DRAM and NAND tightens and hyperscalers lock in multi‑year contracts to secure supply. Several firms have responded by repeatedly lifting price targets on Micron shares—some to the $400–$470 range—while maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings. Broadcom's story is similarly anchored in AI, but with a heavier tilt toward custom accelerators, switching silicon and networking gear that sit at the heart of next‑gen data centers. Management sees AI chip sales potentially exceeding $100 billion annually in the coming years, reframing Broadcom as a structural AI compounder rather than a tra...
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is among the leading chipmakers investors continue to watch closely, as volatility once again rears its head in the world of artificial intelligence (AI) and AI-related stocks. www.barchart.com As the chart above shows, clearly many investors and market participants aren't sure of the direction of travel of this particular semiconductor maker moving forward. With share...
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is among the leading chipmakers investors continue to watch closely, as volatility once again rears its head in the world of artificial intelligence (AI) and AI-related stocks. www.barchart.com As the chart above shows, clearly many investors and market participants aren't sure of the direction of travel of this particular semiconductor maker moving forward. With shares of AMD now consolidating around the $200 level, the question is where will AMD stock head from here. Let's dive into one key catalyst some investors are pointing to as a potential headwind or tailwind for AMD, depending on how you look at it. A Big Meeting in South Korea Reportedly, AMD CEO Lisa Su will be meeting with Samsung chairman Jay Lee in South Korea on March 18, but the news has done little to stem the bleeding in this particular name. Down more than 2% for the past five days, it's becoming increasingly clear that stock-specific news is coming in second place to broader macro news around the U.S.-Iran conflict — and what that could mean for the global economy overall. That said, this development that AMD and Samsung are meeting could propel AMD stock higher relative to its peers. That is, if the meeting does yield some positive developments for the chipmaker in its pursuit of nailing down more consistent high-bandwidth memory, which is becoming increasingly difficult to find. The memory piece of the AI puzzle appears to becoming more complex by the week, with a surge in chip demand requiring a requisite increase in the amount of memory produced. With this key meeting setting the stage for AMD to potentially find a workaround, there's plenty to like about how the stock is positioned right now. Why AMD Stock Looks Reasonable Right Now Looking at the fundamentals, AMD is clearly far from the cheapest stock on the market. Indeed, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio near 10 times and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 34 times, shares are certainly priced...
Okta (OKTA) co-founder and CEO Todd McKinnon is serving up the cold, hard truth on adapting to the world of AI: Not adapting likely means extinction for companies. "In a normal time, when technology is maybe moving at a normal pace, you might think every year you want to change 20% of what you're doing. We've really amped that up. You need to change probably 40% or more of what you're doing. That ...
Okta (OKTA) co-founder and CEO Todd McKinnon is serving up the cold, hard truth on adapting to the world of AI: Not adapting likely means extinction for companies. "In a normal time, when technology is maybe moving at a normal pace, you might think every year you want to change 20% of what you're doing. We've really amped that up. You need to change probably 40% or more of what you're doing. That could be a process. That could be how you think about markets and opportunities in the past and how you go after new things," McKinnon said on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid (video above). Tech investors are grappling with what some on Wall Street are calling the “SaaS-pocalypse.” Loosely defined, this reflects the major pullback in the stock prices of software companies such as Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) because of seemingly daily innovations out of model builders Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) and OpenAI (OPAI.PVT). The prevailing view is that software companies will be rendered obsolete in under three years. Companies from Block (XYZ) to Meta (META) to Amazon (AMZN) have announced massive layoffs in the last six months. But McKinnon said humans still need to be a part of the equation. "The vast majority of agentic systems still have a human in the loop. It's all about balancing what the agentic systems can do and, more importantly, how the agentic systems can interact with multiple systems," he said. Okta appears to be benefiting from a step up in corporate spending on security protection for AI agents. The fast pace of AI development could expose businesses to new cybersecurity risks. The company's latest earnings report came in better than Wall Street expected across the board. Guidance was also upbeat. Shares are only down 10% year to date, relatively less severe than other software stocks caught up in the vortex of the SaaSpocolypse. "We believe Okta has a significant opportunity as it attempts to build out a complete identity platform (AM/IGA/PAM/CIAM). Identity has i...
Guess What Ireland's President Said About St. Patrick's Day... Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, Irish President Catherine Connolly marked her first St. Patrick’s Day in office with a message that reframed Ireland’s patron saint as a symbol for open borders and ‘global citizenship’, urging the Irish to embrace migrants amid ongoing surges in arrivals that have sparked nationwide tension...
Guess What Ireland's President Said About St. Patrick's Day... Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, Irish President Catherine Connolly marked her first St. Patrick’s Day in office with a message that reframed Ireland’s patron saint as a symbol for open borders and ‘global citizenship’, urging the Irish to embrace migrants amid ongoing surges in arrivals that have sparked nationwide tensions. In a video address, Connolly drew parallels between St. Patrick’s enslavement and modern migration, calling for hospitality toward those displaced by war and persecution—conveniently overlooking how mass influxes of economic migrants have overwhelmed Irish communities and resources. The full message, delivered against a backdrop of Irish and other flags, emphasized St. Patrick’s story as “a reminder of the resilience and courage of migrants, the invaluable contributions that they have made, and continue to make, to the countries they now call home, sometimes even in the face of great adversity.” NEW - Ireland's President urges "global citizens" to acknowledge their "shared responsibility" to invoke St. Patrick’s spirit, by standing in solidarity with migrants and to recognise "the invaluable contributions" they make. pic.twitter.com/Tk98m2eUiX — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 16, 2026 Connolly went on: “Patrick’s story speaks not only to the Ireland of the 5th century, but to the millions still subjected to trafficking, forced labour and displacement today .” She added, “As we recall the life of Patrick, we invoke his spirit and acknowledge our shared responsibilities as global citizens. We stand in solidarity with those who find themselves in vulnerable and dangerous circumstances. ” The president wrapped up by stressing, “Patrick’s story invites us to respond with hospitality and kindness to those suffering the consequences of war and displacement, those fleeing their countries because of persecution or violence .” This pivot comes as Ireland ramps up immigration refo...
Saving enough for retirement has always been a tall order, and it's only grown more difficult as life expectancies and living expenses have increased. You're not alone if you're worried that you might not be able to save enough to cover all your retirement costs. Many people rely on Social Security as a fallback, but recent research from The Motley Fool suggests that a different strategy may lead ...
Saving enough for retirement has always been a tall order, and it's only grown more difficult as life expectancies and living expenses have increased. You're not alone if you're worried that you might not be able to save enough to cover all your retirement costs. Many people rely on Social Security as a fallback, but recent research from The Motley Fool suggests that a different strategy may lead to greater financial security in retirement. Diversifying your retirement income sources will increase your security Social Security will be there for you in retirement, but with its trust funds just a few years from depletion, it's not yet clear what role it will play for today's workers. It's unlikely to be enough to cover all or even most of your expenses. It was only intended to replace about 40% of pre-retirement income for average workers, so you'll need more than your benefits alone to remain secure in retirement. Diversifying your retirement income sources is one of the most important moves you can make to ensure your future financial security. A Gallup survey found that just 60% of retirees who lived primarily on earnings from Social Security were able to retire comfortably. That stat jumped to 78% for those who had one additional income source. But the group that reported nearly everyone retiring comfortably was the one with one or two major sources of retirement income outside of Social Security. This could be a retirement account. But it might also be a pension or a retirement job. How to start diversifying your retirement income Think about which sources of retirement income are likely to be available to you outside of Social Security. If you're saving some money in an IRA or 401(k), keep making contributions as consistently as you're able to. And claim as much of your 401(k) match as possible each year, if you're eligible for one. If you qualify for a pension, you're probably already aware of this. Your employer should be able to provide you with an idea of ho...
Key Points While e-commerce adoption propelled Amazon more in the early years, its future success depends on the cloud division. Apple's popular hardware devices support unmatched distribution that leads to durable services revenue. One of these opportunities provides better growth at a cheaper valuation. 10 stocks we like better than Apple › Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares have soared 629% in the pa...
Key Points While e-commerce adoption propelled Amazon more in the early years, its future success depends on the cloud division. Apple's popular hardware devices support unmatched distribution that leads to durable services revenue. One of these opportunities provides better growth at a cheaper valuation. 10 stocks we like better than Apple › Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares have soared 629% in the past decade (as of March 13), with an annual average return rate of 22%. The company is widely regarded as one of the most disruptive businesses on Earth, as it has a strong position in many end markets. Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) share price has climbed 878% during the same time period at an average annual return of 25.6%. It has been a top Berkshire Hathaway holding for a long time. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » Which of these "Magnificent Seven" stocks is the better one to buy right now? Amazon is fighting for AI dominance Amazon made a name for itself early in its lifecycle by innovating within e-commerce. Today, it sits atop the industry, with roughly 40% of online shopping in the U.S. happening on the company's popular marketplace. However, the company has been extremely successful in other markets, most notably cloud computing. Its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division generated significant revenue of $129 billion and operating income of $46 billion in the fourth quarter (ended Dec. 31). This segment will drive success in the future. AWS is Amazon's artificial intelligence (AI) engine. It offers a wide variety of AI tools to enterprise customers. Demand has been strong. CEO Andy Jassy said: "Customers really want AWS for core and AI workloads." This is encouraging management's robust $200 billion spending plan. Apple's product innovation continues to shine Apple remains hyper-focused on th...
Emma Raducanu has withdrawn from this week's Miami Open as she continues her recovery from a recent illness. The British number one became unwell while playing in the Middle East last month, and is still suffering with post-viral symptoms. Raducanu decided to play last week's event in Indian Wells, and reached the third round before losing in just 52 minutes to the world number six Amanda Anisimov...
Emma Raducanu has withdrawn from this week's Miami Open as she continues her recovery from a recent illness. The British number one became unwell while playing in the Middle East last month, and is still suffering with post-viral symptoms. Raducanu decided to play last week's event in Indian Wells, and reached the third round before losing in just 52 minutes to the world number six Amanda Anisimova. The 23-year-old has 215 ranking points to defend from reaching the quarter-finals in Miami last year, but has decided it would be best to take a break to recover fully. Raducanu beat both Anisimova and the then top 10 player Emma Navarro before losing to Jessica Pegula in three sets in last year's quarter-finals. This year she had a first-round bye, and could have played British childhood rival Sonay Kartal in the second round. Raducanu had already decided not to play in Great Britain's Billie Jean King Cup tie in Melbourne next month, but is currently scheduled to return to the tour in three weeks' time. She has entered the WTA event in Linz, which would be her first clay-court tournament of the season.
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord , where you can hang out and talk with us and with other listeners 24/7. Here’s what Tracy’s thinking about Joe and I are at SXSW in Austin, Texas today, where we recorded a live episode on the politics of AI and the (possibly) impending white-collar job wipeout. To discuss, we tapped Byrne Hobart, founder of The Diff and someone who’s been expertly writing about tech and finance for years now, as well as David Shor, a well-known pollster who’s now head of data science at Blue Rose Research. It’s a fascinating discussion, not least because Byrne and David don’t necessarily agree on just how extreme AI-related job losses will be. But one thing that stood out to me is the degree to which people are already worried about this possibility, as some of David’s latest polling data shows. Concerns over AI have basically zoomed up the list of Americans’ collective worries. According to Blue Rose data, AI is currently ranked 29th out of 39 issues. But it’s absolutely stormed the rankings, rising in importance more than anything else out there. At this rate, AI could well be the defining issue in upcoming campaigns, but we haven’t yet actually heard that many politicians talking about it (beyond occasionally grumbling about data centers). The real money charts to me, however, have to do with what people seem to want politicians to do about the perceived AI threat. Some 55% of voters agreed that tech companies should not be able to make unlimited profits from AI and should be held responsible for job losses. That’s pretty anathema to what many pe...