DOJ, CTFC Investigating $2.6 Billion In Suspicious Iran War Oil Trades U.S. authorities are investigating more than $2.6 billion in oil futures shorts that landed within minutes of major announcements tied to the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict . The Department of Justice (DOJ) has joined the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in a widening inquiry into potential misuse of material non-public inf...
DOJ, CTFC Investigating $2.6 Billion In Suspicious Iran War Oil Trades U.S. authorities are investigating more than $2.6 billion in oil futures shorts that landed within minutes of major announcements tied to the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict . The Department of Justice (DOJ) has joined the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in a widening inquiry into potential misuse of material non-public information in one of the most liquid and geopolitically sensitive commodity markets on earth , ABC News reports. The trades in question involved bets that oil prices would fall shortly before major U.S. or Iranian announcements tied to the Iran war. . The Trades Data sourced from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) - which captures exchange-traded futures flow but strips identities - reveals four distinct clusters of aggressive shorting in WTI and Brent crude futures : March 23 : > $500 million in shorts executed in a one-minute burst roughly 15 minutes before President Trump announced a five-day delay on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure. Oil prices subsequently plunged ~15%. April 7 : ~ $960 million short position placed hours before the temporary ceasefire announcement (oil dropped sharply on the news). April 17 : $760 million short bet executed ~20 minutes before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic. April 21 : $ 430 million additional short layer placed 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire. Total exposure: >$2.65 billion in directional bets that oil's geopolitical risk premium was about to collapse. These were institutional-sized clips that moved the tape. The CTFC began investigating suspicious oil trades last month , which has now expanded under DOJ scrutiny. Oil futures (CL on CME/NYMEX and Brent on ICE) price in both physical supply/demand and a geopolitical risk premium. When headlines shift from "imminent strikes" or "Hormuz closure" to "ceasefire" or "shipping lanes open," ...
Swiss Re press release ( SSREY ): Q1 Insurance revenue of $10B (-3.8% Y/Y) misses by $400M . Property & Casualty Reinsurance (P&C Re) delivers net income of USD 754 million; combined ratio of 79.5% Corporate Solutions achieves net income of USD 262 million; combined ratio of 85.1% Life & Health Reinsurance (L&H Re) delivers net income of USD 491 million Return on investments (ROI) of 4.6%; recurri...
Swiss Re press release ( SSREY ): Q1 Insurance revenue of $10B (-3.8% Y/Y) misses by $400M . Property & Casualty Reinsurance (P&C Re) delivers net income of USD 754 million; combined ratio of 79.5% Corporate Solutions achieves net income of USD 262 million; combined ratio of 85.1% Life & Health Reinsurance (L&H Re) delivers net income of USD 491 million Return on investments (ROI) of 4.6%; recurring income yield of 4.1% Outlook Swiss Re's Group Chief Executive Officer Andreas Berger said: "Swiss Re delivered strong earnings in the first quarter, putting us on a good path towards our 2026 financial targets. Against an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop and an increasingly challenging market environment, our P&C businesses continue to prioritise disciplined underwriting. We expect L&H Re to make a growing contribution to balance the Group's overall performance going forward. At the same time, we are firmly focused on cost efficiency. Our goals remain: delivering on our financial targets and on the Group's overall resilience." More on Swiss Re Swiss Re AG (SSREY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Swiss Re AG (SSREY) Shareholder/Analyst Call Transcript Swiss Re: Strong 2025 Results, Capital Returns Accelerate, Attractive Upside Remains Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Swiss Re Historical earnings data for Swiss Re
Holder went back to woman’s Cheltenham flat after night out and refused to stop assault even when she began crying A co-founder of the clothing company Superdry has been jailed for eight years for raping a woman after a night out in Cheltenham. James Holder, 54, had been due to get a taxi back to his home in the Cotswolds with a male friend. Instead, the pair got into the victim’s taxi and went to...
Holder went back to woman’s Cheltenham flat after night out and refused to stop assault even when she began crying A co-founder of the clothing company Superdry has been jailed for eight years for raping a woman after a night out in Cheltenham. James Holder, 54, had been due to get a taxi back to his home in the Cotswolds with a male friend. Instead, the pair got into the victim’s taxi and went to her flat in the Gloucestershire town, where Holder raped her. Information and support for anyone affected by rape or sexual abuse issues is available from the following organisations. In the UK, Rape Crisis offers support on 0808 500 2222 in England and Wales, 0808 801 0302 in Scotland , or 0800 0246 991 in Northern Ireland . In the US, Rainn offers support on 800-656-4673. In Australia, support is available at 1800Respect (1800 737 732). Other international helplines can be found at ibiblio.org/rcip/internl.html Continue reading...
Kalshi Inc. has completed a funding round that values the prediction markets platform at $22 billion, roughly doubling the previous valuation it secured five months ago. The New York-based firm raised $1 billion in a Series-F round led by Coatue Management , according to a blog post on Thursday that confirmed an earlier report from Bloomberg News. Other investors who participated included Sequoia ...
Kalshi Inc. has completed a funding round that values the prediction markets platform at $22 billion, roughly doubling the previous valuation it secured five months ago. The New York-based firm raised $1 billion in a Series-F round led by Coatue Management , according to a blog post on Thursday that confirmed an earlier report from Bloomberg News. Other investors who participated included Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley and ARK Invest. Its previous round valued the company at $11 billion. Read More: Kalshi Gets $1 Billion in New $22 Billion Funding Round Prediction markets have become increasingly popular lately, as retail investors rush to trade on event contracts tied to politics, sports and economic outcomes. Annualized trading volume on Kalshi tripled in the last six months, according to the blog post, rising from $52 billion to $178 billion. As of this month, Kalshi’s annualized revenue — or annual run rate — is more than $1.5 billion, a spokesperson for the company said. Kalshi and its chief rival Polymarket have raised billions of dollars in investment over the past year, significantly boosting their valuations. Polymarket is seeking additional funding that would value its business at $15 billion, Bloomberg reported last month.
Shares of SiTime spiked Thursday after the maker of timing solutions nearly doubled revenue from last year, reflecting strong demand from artificial-intelligence data centers. After the closing bell Wednesday, SiTime reported adjusted earnings of $1.44 a share for the first quarter, up from 26 cents a year ago and well above analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.16. The company introduced a full-yea...
Shares of SiTime spiked Thursday after the maker of timing solutions nearly doubled revenue from last year, reflecting strong demand from artificial-intelligence data centers. After the closing bell Wednesday, SiTime reported adjusted earnings of $1.44 a share for the first quarter, up from 26 cents a year ago and well above analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.16. The company introduced a full-year revenue growth forecast of at least 80%.
Fahroni/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Ballard Power Systems Inc. ( BLDP ) is basically the engine maker for hydrogen-powered vehicles, except instead of making diesel engines, they make fuel cell engines. For those new to the concept of fuel cells , it essentially pumps hydrogen into the system, where it combines with oxygen from the air and creates electricity. The only waste product is water, a...
Fahroni/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Ballard Power Systems Inc. ( BLDP ) is basically the engine maker for hydrogen-powered vehicles, except instead of making diesel engines, they make fuel cell engines. For those new to the concept of fuel cells , it essentially pumps hydrogen into the system, where it combines with oxygen from the air and creates electricity. The only waste product is water, and Ballard builds that core system. Bear in mind, they are not creating an entire bus, truck, train, or ship from scratch; rather, they create a fuel-cell powertrain that's sold to manufacturers who produce these types of vehicles. Therefore, there are three ways they generate income: 1. sale of fuel cell engines; 2. provision of service and replacement parts to maintain the systems; 3. engineering and licensing to vehicle manufacturers. As for that, I think a fair question to ask is why this exists if batteries already exist. Because batteries are great for cars, but they are less great for huge vehicles. The catch is that hydrogen infrastructure is still immature. That's the problem. Seeking Alpha With that in mind, at least from a momentum standpoint, BLDP is charged up. Over a one-year period, the stock is up a massive 295%, and a big chunk of that, around 90%, came from this month alone. So, clearly, something has been working. But after going through the Q1 2026 earnings , I'm leaning neutral. The business is improving, no doubt. Still, it does not look strong enough yet for me to chase the stock after such a sharp rally. Is Ballard's Rally Running Ahead Of The Business? Seeking Alpha Q1 2026 revenue : $19.4M Revenue growth: +26% YoY Revenue drivers: rail and bus verticals Stationary power growth driver: diesel genset replacement business Revenue weighting: expected to be weighted toward 2H 2026. Ballard's quarter wasn't really a breakthrough moment where customers suddenly rushed to buy hydrogen products. It was more like the company is getting its house in order fin...
Abstract Aerial Art/DigitalVision via Getty Images In my last article about Evolution Petroleum ( EPM ) I have given the stock a buy rating. At the time, I have to admit, the company was boring but was an attractive small-cap oil and gas player. It did not have an outstanding growth story, just long-term assets, stable dividends and quite a conservative balance. Also, I liked the business model be...
Abstract Aerial Art/DigitalVision via Getty Images In my last article about Evolution Petroleum ( EPM ) I have given the stock a buy rating. At the time, I have to admit, the company was boring but was an attractive small-cap oil and gas player. It did not have an outstanding growth story, just long-term assets, stable dividends and quite a conservative balance. Also, I liked the business model because it did not need aggressive CAPEX to survive. In other words, for me, the company was not really fitting the strategy because I was not expecting it to skyrocket, but it was a stable cash flow name for dividend investors. The results in February 2026 showed us better profitability, and I still believe that the company is good. Although I have to admit my stance changed because the company started looking more risky to me. EPM still pays dividends, just now they are more acquisition-driven and have more debt, which I believe might lead to dilution through the ATM program. Those who read my analysis know, that I avoid stocks that pose any risk of dilution. What Changed ? Due to my rating change, I will say that the business itself is intact. EPM did not fall apart. The main change is that the risk profile became different. In my last article, the thesis was built on the company being boring, small, profitable, dividend paying. This part still remains. Though, EPM now changed its profile from conservative producer to active mineral and royalty acquisition platform. Mineral and royalty assets can be attractive because they have higher margins and require less direct operating CAPEX. The problem I have with this, that EPM is not a big company. When a company of its size starts buying assets, then investors should look very carefully where they are getting the money from. Will this be debt, whether ATM equity or cash flow from operations? Exactly, this is the part where my thesis gets weaker. In Q2 FY2026 EPM had just $3.8 million in cash and $54.5 million in borrowings acco...
Last fall, we featured an extensive interview with Petter Törnberg of the University of Amsterdam, who studies the underlying mechanisms of social media that give rise to its worst aspects: the partisan echo chambers, the concentration of influence among a small group of elite users (attention inequality), and the amplification of the most extreme divisive voices. He wasn't optimistic about social...
Last fall, we featured an extensive interview with Petter Törnberg of the University of Amsterdam, who studies the underlying mechanisms of social media that give rise to its worst aspects: the partisan echo chambers, the concentration of influence among a small group of elite users (attention inequality), and the amplification of the most extreme divisive voices. He wasn't optimistic about social media's future. Törnberg's research showed that , while numerous platform-level intervention strategies have been proposed to combat these issues, none are likely to be effective. And it’s not the fault of much-hated algorithms, non-chronological feeds, or our human proclivity for seeking out negativity. Rather, the dynamics that give rise to all those negative outcomes are structurally embedded in the very architecture of social media. So we’re probably doomed to endless toxic feedback loops unless someone hits upon a brilliant fundamental redesign that manages to change those dynamics. Törnberg has been very busy since then, producing two new papers and one new preprint building on this realization that social media is structured quite differently than the physical world, with unexpected downstream consequences. The first new paper , published in PLoS ONE, specifically focused on the echo chamber effect, using the same combined standard agent-based modeling with large language models (LLMs)—essentially creating little AI personas to simulate online social media behavior. Read full article Comments
WSP Global press release ( WSPOF ): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.21. Revenues and net revenues for the quarter reached $4.55 billion and $3.71 billion, up 3.7% and 10.8%, respectively, compared to the first quarter of 2025. Backlog as at March 27, 2026 reached a new record level of $19.7 billion, up 19.0% in the twelve-month period, and representing 11.5 months of revenues. More on WSP Global Inc. WSP Gl...
WSP Global press release ( WSPOF ): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.21. Revenues and net revenues for the quarter reached $4.55 billion and $3.71 billion, up 3.7% and 10.8%, respectively, compared to the first quarter of 2025. Backlog as at March 27, 2026 reached a new record level of $19.7 billion, up 19.0% in the twelve-month period, and representing 11.5 months of revenues. More on WSP Global Inc. WSP Global Inc. (WSP:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript WSP Global Inc. 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation WSP prices $1.5 billion senior unsecured notes offering Historical earnings data for WSP Global Inc. Dividend scorecard for WSP Global Inc.
Tom Werner/DigitalVision via Getty Images Thesis I think the buy case for Avalo Therapeutics ( AVTX ) has strengthened pretty materially now that we’ve seen the Phase 2 LOTUS readout . As you know, abdakibart delivered statistically significant and potentially differentiated efficacy in a quite difficult-to-treat indication. It also showed us a surprisingly clean safety profile and a convenient do...
Tom Werner/DigitalVision via Getty Images Thesis I think the buy case for Avalo Therapeutics ( AVTX ) has strengthened pretty materially now that we’ve seen the Phase 2 LOTUS readout . As you know, abdakibart delivered statistically significant and potentially differentiated efficacy in a quite difficult-to-treat indication. It also showed us a surprisingly clean safety profile and a convenient dosing regimen. Now, if we combine this with the company’s new pro forma cash position of about $450 to $470 million after their latest equity raise, I think Avalo is in a pretty decent position to advance the program into pivotal Phase 3 development. My upside-case scenario would then be that if abdakibart can replicate the efficacy and safety results in a much larger registrational study and also set itself up as a differentiated biologic in hidradenitis suppurativa, the current valuation could still look relatively modest when compared to the commercial potential of a successful late-stage inflammatory disease asset. As for the stock price, shares are trading around the $21 mark pre-market today and have run up about 66% over the last 5 days. So even though I am buy-rated on the long run potential of abdakibart, I feel there could be some stock volatility as investors take profits. Abdakibart/AVTX-009 As you know, Avalo reported this week a very interesting inflammatory-disease Phase 2 dataset. Their candidate is, of course, abdakibart/ AVTX-009 , and is tipped to target a pathway that quite a lot of researchers have believed was central to hidradenitis suppurativa ( HS ). The trouble is that historically, it’s been pretty difficult to translate that link into a clearly differentiated clinical product. You see, HS is a chronic, destructive inflammatory skin disease characterised by recurrent nodules, abscesses and sinus tracts/draining tunnels. It also comes with severe pain and scarring. Now, the existing biologics are mainly focused on TNF-α or IL-17 inhibition, and whil...