PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction Private credit has been an area about which I have recently started sharing my research, as I explained in my recent article, where I tried to think like a bear . After focusing on Ares Capital and on Blue Owl Capital , I now want to turn my attention to Hercules Capital ( HTGC ), the largest U.S. specialty finance BDC focused on providing seni...
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction Private credit has been an area about which I have recently started sharing my research, as I explained in my recent article, where I tried to think like a bear . After focusing on Ares Capital and on Blue Owl Capital , I now want to turn my attention to Hercules Capital ( HTGC ), the largest U.S. specialty finance BDC focused on providing senior secured loans to high-growth tech and life sciences companies . Hercules Capital has not been spared by the recent collapse in BDCs and is down 25% YtD. The main fear is linked to its exposure to software. It is true that during the last earnings call, Hercules tried to outline how almost 70% of its new commitments went to life sciences instead of software. But the overall exposure to this beaten-down industry remains meaningful. Let me make one point clear, however. Even though software is down in the stock market, so far, most well-established software companies have kept reporting strong earnings. So, right now, the market is decoupled from the fundamentals, although investors believe that they are anticipating a decline that software will suffer due to AI. During the last earnings call , Hercules' management took time to explain why investors should not worry about software exposure: We continue to underwrite the software sector very conservatively with ARR attachment points less than 1x on average, and the historical duration of our software loans is less than 24 months, which materially derisks the debt portfolio. HTCG Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation With such an exposure, the question about HTGC has to do with its current NAV. As of Q4 2025, the company reported a NAV per share of $12.13. Investors now wonder whether write-downs (both because of unrealized depreciation and realized losses) could compress the company's NAV. Non-accrual rates, however, have not moved up significantly for HTCG. So, I think investors should be cautious because the AI-disruption sell-off...
Meta Platforms recently disclosed a new stock option plan for its top executives that won't pay out unless the company's market cap skyrockets from roughly $1.36 trillion to $9 trillion by 2031. That would make Meta worth more than twice Nvidia's value, currently the world's most valuable ...
Meta Platforms recently disclosed a new stock option plan for its top executives that won't pay out unless the company's market cap skyrockets from roughly $1.36 trillion to $9 trillion by 2031. That would make Meta worth more than twice Nvidia's value, currently the world's most valuable ...
Trump administration claims list is part of an EEOC investigation into antisemitic discrimination at university A federal judge on Tuesday ordered the University of Pennsylvania to hand over records about Jewish employees on campus to a federal agency as part of an investigation into antisemitic discrimination but said it did not have to reveal any employee’s affiliation with a specific group. US ...
Trump administration claims list is part of an EEOC investigation into antisemitic discrimination at university A federal judge on Tuesday ordered the University of Pennsylvania to hand over records about Jewish employees on campus to a federal agency as part of an investigation into antisemitic discrimination but said it did not have to reveal any employee’s affiliation with a specific group. US district judge Gerald Pappert said employees can refuse to take part in the US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) investigation but the agency “needs the opportunity to talk to them directly to learn if they have evidence of discrimination”. Continue reading...
Earnings Call Insights: Rekor Systems (REKR) Q4 2025 Management View Joseph Nalepa said 2025 results reflected “execution and operational efficiency,” with revenue of $48.5 million (up 5% vs. 2024) and remaining performance obligations of $25.9 million (up nearly 80% vs. December 31, 2024), alongside recurring revenue of $23.9 million (up 6% year-over-year). Joseph Nalepa highlighted mix and effic...
Earnings Call Insights: Rekor Systems (REKR) Q4 2025 Management View Joseph Nalepa said 2025 results reflected “execution and operational efficiency,” with revenue of $48.5 million (up 5% vs. 2024) and remaining performance obligations of $25.9 million (up nearly 80% vs. December 31, 2024), alongside recurring revenue of $23.9 million (up 6% year-over-year). Joseph Nalepa highlighted mix and efficiency benefits, saying adjusted margin was 56% vs. 49% in 2024, and added the company “made the decision to onshore our engineering efforts to optimize our engineering operations and cost containment efforts,” which contributed to a $3.8 million noncash asset impairment charge in 2025. Joseph Nalepa said operating expense actions drove profitability improvement, including total operating expenses (excluding depreciation, amortization, and impairment) down 20% year-over-year (an $11.4 million reduction) and adjusted EBITDA loss of $18.1 million (an $11 million improvement vs. 2024), while noting the adjusted EBITDA loss was $13.1 million in H1 2025 vs. $5 million in H2 2025. Robert Berman said 2025 included “a deliberate shift away from building the company of the future and refocused the organization on executing a pragmatic, profitable business model,” adding the company “transitioned from a development-heavy R&D-driven organization to a customer-focused business with fully productized solutions.” Robert Berman described timing and operating priorities, saying, “As our rightsizing actions conclude towards the end of Q2…we are entering a new phase of the company, one focused on scaling,” and “In the back half of 2026, we expect to aggressively ramp sales execution and drive accelerated growth.” Robert Berman pointed to profitability and cash flow inflection, saying the company “reduced net loss by 49% and importantly, achieved operating cash flow positivity in the fourth quarter of 2025,” while also cautioning, “there may be some quarter-to-quarter variability as we complet...
Bloomberg Television brings you the latest news and analysis leading up to the final minutes and seconds before and after the closing bell on Wall Street. Today's guests are Muddy Waters Research CEO Carson Block, Piper Sandler’s Anna Andreeva, PGIM’s Matthew Harvey, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Jitania Kandhari, Coresight Research CEO Deborah Weinswig, Wolfe Research’s Tobin Marcus, Ham...
Bloomberg Television brings you the latest news and analysis leading up to the final minutes and seconds before and after the closing bell on Wall Street. Today's guests are Muddy Waters Research CEO Carson Block, Piper Sandler’s Anna Andreeva, PGIM’s Matthew Harvey, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Jitania Kandhari, Coresight Research CEO Deborah Weinswig, Wolfe Research’s Tobin Marcus, Hamilton Lane Co-CEO Erik Hirsch, & Freshfields’ Ethan Klingsberg. (Source: Bloomberg)