Based purely on statistics, Wall Street has been thrilled to have President Donald Trump in the White House. When his first, non-consecutive term ended in January 2021, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI 0.26%), broad-based S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.61%), and innovation-fueled Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 0.93%) had rallied by 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively. Since Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2...
Based purely on statistics, Wall Street has been thrilled to have President Donald Trump in the White House. When his first, non-consecutive term ended in January 2021, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI 0.26%), broad-based S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.61%), and innovation-fueled Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 0.93%) had rallied by 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively. Since Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite had gained 9%, 12%, and 14%, through the closing bell on March 6, 2026. While the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average have finished higher in 26 of the last 33 presidential terms, the annualized return of Wall Street's major stock indexes has been notably higher than the average under Donald Trump. But this doesn't mean there aren't headwinds brewing for the stock market. At any given time, one or more catalysts are threatening to pull the rug out from beneath investors. While investors may be inclined to point the finger at the president's tariff and trade policy as a possible elevator-down catalyst for stocks, tariffs are far from the biggest issue Wall Street is contending with. If a stock market crash were to ensue under President Trump, one or more of three catalysts (none of which has to do with tariffs) would likely trigger it. The Iran war risks sparking an oil price shock for the ages A little over two weeks ago, the prospect of a geopolitical event roiling Wall Street was slim. But on Feb. 28, U.S. and Israeli armed forces began attacks against Iran. This conflict, widely known as the "Iran war," threatens to end the outsize stock returns that investors have become accustomed to with Trump in the Oval Office. According to data compiled by Carson Group's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick, there have been over 40 major geopolitical events, including wars, assassination attempts, invasions, terrorist attacks, and financial crises, since the early stages of World War II. Many of these events did not lead to a stock m...