watch now VIDEO 7:17 07:17 Oil markets brace for fallout as Iran conflict echoes Iraq war turmoil Markets and Politics Digital Original Video The Trump administration has rolled out a series of measures to attempt to blunt the blow of the Iran-driven oil-price hike , and yet prices remain stubbornly high. As the war rolls on, it is becoming clear there isn't much the U.S. or any other government c...
watch now VIDEO 7:17 07:17 Oil markets brace for fallout as Iran conflict echoes Iraq war turmoil Markets and Politics Digital Original Video The Trump administration has rolled out a series of measures to attempt to blunt the blow of the Iran-driven oil-price hike , and yet prices remain stubbornly high. As the war rolls on, it is becoming clear there isn't much the U.S. or any other government can do to provide relief from higher oil prices short of ending the conflict . It will take a military breakthrough to get oil flowing and reduce energy prices. That means this episode is sharply different from past market crises that President Donald Trump has muddled through. A pattern of escalating political tensions followed by fast economic relief that has held through Trump's second presidency may finally be breaking. This is a problem Trump can't solve through economic policy. The economic math is uncompromising. The war will cut the global supply of oil by about 8 million barrels a day in March, the International Energy Agency estimated Thursday. That accounts for the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz , the narrow waterway bordered by Iran that carries as much as 20 million barrels a day in normal times, as well as the oil industry's attempts to route around the problem and production increases elsewhere. Read more CNBC politics coverage Housing affordability bill clears Senate as investor ban creates headaches Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh meets with more senators as Thom Tillis blockade continues Trump-backed SAVE America Act will get a Senate vote next week, Thune says The Trump administration and other governments are trying to get more oil onto the market, most substantially by releasing some 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. But it won't come all at once. The U.S. portion will amount to about 1.4 million barrels a day over roughly four months, based on plans from the Department of Energy . All told, the global release will amount to perhaps 3 million...
The rapid surge in oil prices unleashed by conflict in the Middle East is jolting one of the most popular systematic strategies touted by big banks on Wall Street. The trade, known as commodity curve carry, goes short on near-dated futures for raw materials and long on contracts expiring later. The idea is to easily profit from the tendency of longer-dated futures to trade at a higher price to acc...
The rapid surge in oil prices unleashed by conflict in the Middle East is jolting one of the most popular systematic strategies touted by big banks on Wall Street. The trade, known as commodity curve carry, goes short on near-dated futures for raw materials and long on contracts expiring later. The idea is to easily profit from the tendency of longer-dated futures to trade at a higher price to account for the costs of storage and transportation. Curve carry is the main commodity trade that banks package into quantitative investment strategies , or QIS. These are swap-based products that mimic popular systematic approaches, providing hedge funds, pensions and other large institutions easy access to complex exposures. QIS ran $133.8 billion in commodities as of June, with a little less than half in long-short strategies, a survey of 14 broker-dealers by Albourne Partners shows. With the US and Israel’s war against Iran disrupting oil supplies and sending the price of near-term crude contracts surging , commodity curve carry had its worst week ever in early March, according to a UBS Group AG index going back to 2007. It posted a record jump on Tuesday on hopes the conflict might be short-lived and as major economies debated releasing oil from their stockpiles, but with few signs of an end to the hostilities it has since resumed losses. In trading jargon, the price curve of oil is now firmly in backwardation, with April contracts for WTI trading about $5 above June futures. Typically the curve is in what’s called contango, upward sloping with the later futures trading higher. “We’re now experiencing a supply chain disruption — not just in Brent and WTI, but really across all energy liquids on a scale that we haven’t really seen before,” said Benjamin Hoff , global head of commodities quant research at Societe Generale SA. “And while some trend systems have benefited so far, this is exactly where there are very clear limits to what any self-respecting quant system can cl...
As Formula One grapples with its new, controversial regulations, there is consensus at least that Mercedes are expected to be on top once more in the second race of the season on Sunday in Shanghai. The team have a fearsome car but most importantly in a formula dominated by the engine, appear to have also stolen a march in optimising the dark art of energy management. George Russell and Kimi Anton...
As Formula One grapples with its new, controversial regulations, there is consensus at least that Mercedes are expected to be on top once more in the second race of the season on Sunday in Shanghai. The team have a fearsome car but most importantly in a formula dominated by the engine, appear to have also stolen a march in optimising the dark art of energy management. George Russell and Kimi Antonelli claimed a one-two at the opening round in Australia last weekend. In qualifying Russell was eight-tenths quicker than Mercedes’ nearest rival, the Red Bull of Isack Hadjar and in the grand prix itself finished 15 seconds in front of third-placed Charles Leclerc having eased up in the final third of the race. They were once more comfortably the two quickest drivers in qualifying for Saturday’s sprint race in China. Performances which marked them out as the class of the field which was acknowledged by their rivals. To put it in context, last year’s world champion Lando Norris was nearly a second off in qualifying in Australia and finished fifth for McLaren, more than 50 seconds down on Russell. That is an absolute chasm but what was most striking about the differential was that McLaren are using the same Mercedes engine. The rules stipulate that customer engines (with which Mercedes units McLaren won the last two constructors’ championships) must be identical to the ones used by the works team. Yet even with a good car, given their pace, Mercedes are clearly extracting more from their engines and this is proving to be one of the major differentiators in the new season as they go into the China GP. At its heart lies the absolutely vital role, love it or loathe it – and popular opinion leans heavily toward the latter – that energy management now plays in the sport. View image in fullscreen Lando Norris has admitted the McLaren is far from where it needs to be aerodynamically. Photograph: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters In an effort to entice new manufacturers, F1 opted for engines ...
Where will the best picture gong go? Has Chalamet blown his chances? And will anyone speak out on Iran? • Don’t get The Guide delivered to your inbox? Sign up here Happy Oscars Eve eve to you all. The film industry’s glitziest night takes place on Sunday, at an ungodly hour for those of us covering it from the other side of the Atlantic. Coffee will be essential for anyone staying up, as will the ...
Where will the best picture gong go? Has Chalamet blown his chances? And will anyone speak out on Iran? • Don’t get The Guide delivered to your inbox? Sign up here Happy Oscars Eve eve to you all. The film industry’s glitziest night takes place on Sunday, at an ungodly hour for those of us covering it from the other side of the Atlantic. Coffee will be essential for anyone staying up, as will the Guardian’s annual liveblog, covering every last minute of the ceremony as well as its red carpet run-up. Head over to the homepage on Sunday evening for that, plus news and commentary on the night’s events. There’s plenty to read before that too: our annual Oscar hustings , making the case for each of this year’s best picture nominees (I sided with Sentimental Value ); an interview with Academy top dog Bill Kramer ; a piece on the increasingly toxic discourse around many of this year’s nominees; and Guardian film editor Catherine Shoard’s reader Q&A on this year’s race and the state of film in general. There will be plenty more to come over the weekend too. Continue reading...
He realised it made him "a kind of monitor of the teachers, to make them understand, 'Look, I'm here, I've got a camera, I'm filming, so you will say everything you are supposed to say, you will speak as instructed, you will use the material provided by the government.'"
He realised it made him "a kind of monitor of the teachers, to make them understand, 'Look, I'm here, I've got a camera, I'm filming, so you will say everything you are supposed to say, you will speak as instructed, you will use the material provided by the government.'"
Grammarly has disabled a controversial AI feature that imitated the style of prominent writers and academics, and is facing a multimillion dollar lawsuit from those whose identities were used without consent. The feature, called Expert Review, used generative AI to produce feedback supposedly inspired by writers including the novelist Stephen King, the astrophysicist and author Neil deGrasse Tyson...
Grammarly has disabled a controversial AI feature that imitated the style of prominent writers and academics, and is facing a multimillion dollar lawsuit from those whose identities were used without consent. The feature, called Expert Review, used generative AI to produce feedback supposedly inspired by writers including the novelist Stephen King, the astrophysicist and author Neil deGrasse Tyson, and the late scientist Carl Sagan. A class-action lawsuit has been filed in the southern district of New York against Superhuman, Grammarly’s parent company. The lawsuit argues that using a person’s name for commercial gain without permission is unlawful, and argues that damages due across the plaintiff class are in excess of $5m (£3.7m). Since Grammarly’s feature has come to public attention, a number of writers have spoken out about being included. “[Grammarly] curated a list of real people, gave its models free rein to hallucinate plausible-sounding advice on their behalf, and put it all behind a subscription,” wrote tech journalist Casey Newton, who was among those featured in the software. “That’s a deliberate choice to monetise the identities of real people without involving them, and it sucks.” Vanessa Heggie, an associate professor at the University of Birmingham, posted on LinkedIn about how fellow academic David Abulafia, who died in January, was included too, describing it as “obscene”. Investigative journalist Julia Angwin, who appeared in the software, is the lead plaintiff in the lawsuit. “I had thought of deepfakes as something that happens to celebrities, mostly around images,” Angwin told the BBC. “Editing is a skill … it’s my livelihood, but it’s not something I’ve ever thought about anyone trying to steal from me before. I didn’t even think it was steal-able.” Angwin’s lawyer, Peter Romer-Friedman, told the BBC the case had already generated interest from writers. “We’ve heard from over 40 people in the last 24 hours since we filed the suit,” he said. G...
Ninja’s Creami 5‑in‑1 Ice Cream lets you make everything from sorbet to smoothie bowls. | Image: Ninja If you’ve ever wanted more control over what goes into your ice cream, the Ninja Creami 5‑in‑1 Ice Cream Maker makes it easy. The ice cream maker lets you whip up dessert exactly as you want it from the comfort of your home, and right now it’s on sale for $169 ($30 off) at Walmart . Ninja Creami ...
Ninja’s Creami 5‑in‑1 Ice Cream lets you make everything from sorbet to smoothie bowls. | Image: Ninja If you’ve ever wanted more control over what goes into your ice cream, the Ninja Creami 5‑in‑1 Ice Cream Maker makes it easy. The ice cream maker lets you whip up dessert exactly as you want it from the comfort of your home, and right now it’s on sale for $169 ($30 off) at Walmart . Ninja Creami 5-in-1 Ice Cream Maker Where to Buy: $199 $169 at Walmart The machine can make a range of frozen treats in just a few easy steps. You simply pour your ingredients into the included pint container, freeze it overnight, and then pop it into the machine. From there, you can choose from five preset programs, letting you make ice cream, sorbet, gelato, milkshakes, or even a smoothie bowl with the press of a button. You can also customize your dessert before freezing, whether that means using keto, vegan, or dairy-free ingredients or simply adding extra chocolate chips. After the first spin, you can add extra toppings like fruit or cookie pieces and spin it up again with the press of a button to make it creamier. Once you’re done experimenting, it’s pretty convenient to clean up as well. The container, lid, and paddle are all dishwasher safe, so you just need to rinse everything off then let the dishwasher take care of the rest. It’s worth noting Ninja now sells a newer 7-in-1 model with more presets, but the 5-in-1 still covers the essentials and is about $60 cheaper.
Trump Admin Sues California To Block Electric Vehicle Mandate Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times, The Justice and Transportation Departments filed a lawsuit against California on Thursday to stop what they say is an illegal electric vehicle (EV) requirement, alleging that the state is mandating fuel economy standards that federal law places in the exclusive domain of the federal gover...
Trump Admin Sues California To Block Electric Vehicle Mandate Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times, The Justice and Transportation Departments filed a lawsuit against California on Thursday to stop what they say is an illegal electric vehicle (EV) requirement, alleging that the state is mandating fuel economy standards that federal law places in the exclusive domain of the federal government. Attorney General Pamela Bondi and Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy announced the lawsuit, which was filed for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The suit takes aim at regulations formulated by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which mandates automakers comply with stricter mileage standards. CARB has implemented stringent rules, such as the Advanced Clean Cars II act approved in August 2022, which requires that 35 percent of new vehicles sold in the state must be zero-emission starting in 2026, gradually increasing to a complete ban on new gas-powered car sales by 2035. The Clean Air Act bans states from establishing their own tailpipe emission standards for trucks and cars. However, California can get an exemption to the ban if it obtains a waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Following the waiver approval, California can implement its own emissions rules. The waiver would allow state officials to enforce tougher standards than national ones, influencing automakers nationwide due to the state’s large market share. However, federal law bars states from implementing their own fuel economy laws, officials argue in the suit. California’s waivers were revoked in June 2025 when Congress passed resolutions under the Congressional Review Act (CRA), which President Donald Trump signed into law , preventing California from implementing the stricter standards. California and 10 other states filed a lawsuit , arguing that the CRA does not apply to EPA waiver decisions as they are not “rules.” The case is currently ongoin...
asbe Markets are currently pricing in an expectation that the U.S. is actively seeking a way out of the conflict with Iran, according to Adam Crisafulli, founder and president of Vital Knowledge. “Markets anticipate that the U.S. is looking for an off ramp. It’s looking for an exit strategy,” Crisafulli said in an interview with CNBC. Despite the severity of the geopolitical situation, the market’...
asbe Markets are currently pricing in an expectation that the U.S. is actively seeking a way out of the conflict with Iran, according to Adam Crisafulli, founder and president of Vital Knowledge. “Markets anticipate that the U.S. is looking for an off ramp. It’s looking for an exit strategy,” Crisafulli said in an interview with CNBC. Despite the severity of the geopolitical situation, the market’s reaction has been relatively measured. The S&P 500 ( SP500 ) has declined approximately 3% since the war began, which Crisafulli described as “a sizable decline, but it’s actually very impressive considering the magnitude of what’s happening geopolitically.” This restraint reflects the market’s ongoing struggle to balance geopolitical risk against the potential for sudden relief. However, investors remain concerned about obstacles to a resolution. While Crisafulli noted that markets are not doubting the administration’s desire to end the conflict, the focus has shifted to “his ability to” do so as Iran continues to exert pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. This ongoing aggression represents the primary concern weighing on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 ( SP500 ) is currently sitting at the low end of its recent trading range, around 6,700. “I think people are very nervous the longer we sit on this level, the higher the odds that we break down through it,” Crisafulli warned. A sustained breakdown below this level could signal further deterioration in market conditions. Beneath the surface of the major indexes, significant dispersion among sectors continues to create volatility. Crisafulli suggested that a market rotation could potentially push the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) back toward the middle or upper end of its range at around 7,000. “The dispersion is also playing a big role too,” he noted. Investors remain alert to any headline that could spark a relief rally, with the sense that a diplomatic breakthrough could emerge at any moment. “There definitely is in the back of people’...
Get a jump start on the US trading day with Matt Miller and Dani Burger on "Bloomberg Open Interest." Iran’s Supreme Leader reportedly wounded, as President Trump issues a stark new warning to Tehran. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett says markets are flashing 2008-style signals, with oil near triple digits and private credit risks rising. And a wave of fresh data shows the US economy losing stea...
Get a jump start on the US trading day with Matt Miller and Dani Burger on "Bloomberg Open Interest." Iran’s Supreme Leader reportedly wounded, as President Trump issues a stark new warning to Tehran. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett says markets are flashing 2008-style signals, with oil near triple digits and private credit risks rising. And a wave of fresh data shows the US economy losing steam, with consumers pulling back and inflation pressures building. And Adobe's CEO is stepping down in the face of investor concerns over AI. Plus — Burlington’s CEO on why off-price retail is poised to win now, Goodwill’s CEO on closing America’s labor and AI skills gap, and inside a $5 million Ferrari trade as rare supercars become a red-hot asset class. (Source: Bloomberg)
Many seniors who are 65 and older get health coverage through Medicare. And if you've been a Medicare enrollee for quite some time, there are certain aspects of the program you may be used to. But Medicare's rules and costs can change from one year to the next. Here are a few 2026 updates you need to be aware of. 1. Medicare Part B now costs more It's not an unusual thing for Medicare Part B premi...
Many seniors who are 65 and older get health coverage through Medicare. And if you've been a Medicare enrollee for quite some time, there are certain aspects of the program you may be used to. But Medicare's rules and costs can change from one year to the next. Here are a few 2026 updates you need to be aware of. 1. Medicare Part B now costs more It's not an unusual thing for Medicare Part B premiums to rise from one year to the next. But this year, the standard monthly Part B premium is up significantly compared to last year. It's currently $202.90 per month, compared to $185 a month in 2025. If you're receiving Social Security benefits, your Part B premiums will be paid directly out of those monthly checks. But that means you're unlikely to see as much of a boost out of this year's Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, which was only 2.8%. In addition to higher Part B premiums, the annual deductible for Part B rose in 2026. It's now $283, compared to $257 last year. 2. A hospital stay could result in a larger bill Most Medicare enrollees do not pay a premium for Part A, which covers hospital care. But there are numerous costs associated with Part A when you require a hospital stay. This year, the inpatient hospital deductible under Part A is $1,736, up from $1,676 last year. You'll also pay more for daily hospital coinsurance this year -- $434 a day, as opposed to $419 last year, for your 61st through 90th day in the hospital. If you need to remain in the hospital beyond 90 days, the cost of using lifetime reserve days is higher, too. This year, that daily rate is $868, compared to $838 last year. 3. IRMAAs kick in at slightly higher incomes While Medicare Part B has a standard monthly premium, higher earners commonly pay more for it thanks to the program's income-related monthly adjustment amounts, or IRMAAs. IRMAAs only affect about 8% of seniors with Medicare Part B, but they could drive premium costs up substantially. In 2025, IRMAAs started to kick in fo...
Key Points A number of costs related to Medicare increased in 2026. You might pay more for care under Part A as well as Part B. Don't forget that individual Medicare plans can change, too, so it's important to keep up with that information. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook › Many seniors who are 65 and older get health coverage through Medicare. And if you've bee...
Key Points A number of costs related to Medicare increased in 2026. You might pay more for care under Part A as well as Part B. Don't forget that individual Medicare plans can change, too, so it's important to keep up with that information. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook › Many seniors who are 65 and older get health coverage through Medicare. And if you've been a Medicare enrollee for quite some time, there are certain aspects of the program you may be used to. But Medicare's rules and costs can change from one year to the next. Here are a few 2026 updates you need to be aware of. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » 1. Medicare Part B now costs more It's not an unusual thing for Medicare Part B premiums to rise from one year to the next. But this year, the standard monthly Part B premium is up significantly compared to last year. It's currently $202.90 per month, compared to $185 a month in 2025. If you're receiving Social Security benefits, your Part B premiums will be paid directly out of those monthly checks. But that means you're unlikely to see as much of a boost out of this year's Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, which was only 2.8%. In addition to higher Part B premiums, the annual deductible for Part B rose in 2026. It's now $283, compared to $257 last year. 2. A hospital stay could result in a larger bill Most Medicare enrollees do not pay a premium for Part A, which covers hospital care. But there are numerous costs associated with Part A when you require a hospital stay. This year, the inpatient hospital deductible under Part A is $1,736, up from $1,676 last year. You'll also pay more for daily hospital coinsurance this year -- $434 a day, as opposed to $419 last year, for your 61st through 90th day in the hospital. If you need...
On the day before Christmas, when few stocks were stirring, a pricey and pivotal transaction jolted the AI computing race: Nvidia was spending a reported $20 billion to license technology from chip startup Groq and hire key employees, including its CEO, who previously helped Google create what's become the leading alternative to Nvidia's AI processors. In the months since, Nvidia's offensive move ...
On the day before Christmas, when few stocks were stirring, a pricey and pivotal transaction jolted the AI computing race: Nvidia was spending a reported $20 billion to license technology from chip startup Groq and hire key employees, including its CEO, who previously helped Google create what's become the leading alternative to Nvidia's AI processors. In the months since, Nvidia's offensive move has arguably flown under the radar, considering its competitive ramifications in the artificial intelligence gold rush. Perhaps it was lost in the Christmastime shuffle, or in the torrent of other deals and investments that have been flowing from the world's most valuable company over the past year. That should change next week, when Nvidia holds its annual GTC event, called the GPU Technology Conference in its early days, in San Jose, California. The four-day gathering is a big deal in AI. It takes place at the San Jose McEnery Convention Center, with Monday's keynote address from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang held at the nearby SAP Center, where the NHL's San Jose Sharks play — a venue befitting Jensen's leather jacket-wearing, rock star-like status. Throughout the week, Nvidia plans to share at least some of its vision for incorporating Groq's chip technology into its already-dominant AI computing ecosystem. "I've got some great ideas that I'd like to share with you at GTC," Jensen said on the chipmaker's late February earnings call. Those ideas figure to be among the notable developments at a conference that's been dubbed the "Super Bowl of AI." Nvidia is also expected to update us on its roadmap for its bread-and-butter graphics processing units (GPUs), including its next-generation Vera Rubin family. The main reason for the Groq intrigue: Nvidia is likely to harness Groq's technology to build a brand-new chip targeting the daily use of AI models, a process known as inference, according to Wall Steet analysts. Inference is becoming a larger and more competitive part of the A...
Thanks to tariffs, huge spending, and pressure on the Federal Reserve, the Trump administration has injected a great deal of uncertainty into global financial markets. But things went a step further on Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel began strikes on Iran. Let's explore what this could mean for stocks and the crude oil market . There is some data on the stock market during wartime -- including th...
Thanks to tariffs, huge spending, and pressure on the Federal Reserve, the Trump administration has injected a great deal of uncertainty into global financial markets. But things went a step further on Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel began strikes on Iran. Let's explore what this could mean for stocks and the crude oil market . There is some data on the stock market during wartime -- including this research from The Motley Fool -- but there isn't a clear relationship between military conflicts and stock market performance. While some economists credit World War II with helping end the Great Depression and setting the stage for an economic boom in the 1950s, investors shouldn't expect military conflicts to have such a big impact (either positive or negative) on modern economies because systems are much more complex now, and current wars are less widespread than World War II. Large-scale conflicts such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started in 2022 didn't lead to a sustained decline in global stocks. In fact, the STOXX Europe 600 , an index that tracks a basket of eurozone equities, has risen by over 30% since the invasion. Continue reading
This is not the time to think about deploying any cash in the market, trader Stephen Weiss said Friday. Stocks have struggled of late as the Iran war wages on, with the S & P 500 on pace for its first three-week losing streak in about a year. The conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure has led to a spike in oil prices . Traders looking to take advantage of the market drop may want to sit tight, warn...
This is not the time to think about deploying any cash in the market, trader Stephen Weiss said Friday. Stocks have struggled of late as the Iran war wages on, with the S & P 500 on pace for its first three-week losing streak in about a year. The conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure has led to a spike in oil prices . Traders looking to take advantage of the market drop may want to sit tight, warned Weiss, chief investment officer at Short Hills Capital Partners. "I'm keeping my cash. I don't want to catch a falling knife. I don't know how far it's going to fall," he said in on CNBC's " Halftime Report ." "This is not a trading market," he added. "It's prone to do stupid things." His advice isn't necessarily for those who have a long-term investment strategy. "If you're long term, look, frankly anyplace you buy, if you buy the right stocks, they 'll be higher in a reasonable time frame," he said. With the uncertainty around the war's timing, it's hard to make predictions on the market, added investor Kevin Simpson. If the conflict drags on, it can impact corporate earnings, he noted. "We're looking at double-digit earning expectations for 2026. If this oil price stays higher, it affects not just the consumer, but margins, corporations and ultimately earnings," said Simpson, founder and CEO of Capital Wealth Planning. "If this gets resolved over the next two weeks, we can put it in the rearview mirror," he added.
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are beginning to weigh on investor sentiment, with prediction markets signaling a growing concern about the idea of an economic recession. Data from prediction market platform Kalshi shows the implied probability of the United States entering a recession this year has climbed to roughly 35.3%. That represents a notable increase from late February, wh...
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are beginning to weigh on investor sentiment, with prediction markets signaling a growing concern about the idea of an economic recession. Data from prediction market platform Kalshi shows the implied probability of the United States entering a recession this year has climbed to roughly 35.3%. That represents a notable increase from late February, when the odds stood near 21.6% just before hostilities between the United States and Iran kicked off. Financial markets have responded with heightened volatility as traders assess the potential economic consequences of the conflict. Escalating geopolitical risk has historically pressured equities by increasing uncertainty around global trade, energy markets, and monetary policy. Since the close of trading on February 27—just before the conflict started—major U.S. stock indexes have moved lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) has declined approximately 4.8% over that period, reflecting broad investor caution. Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P 500 ( SP500 ) has fallen about 3.3%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite ( COMP:IND ) has slipped roughly 2.3% as investors reassess risk exposure. While the U.S. economy has remained relatively resilient in recent months, the sharp rise in recession probabilities highlights growing concern among market participants that prolonged geopolitical tensions could begin to weigh more heavily on growth, corporate earnings, and overall financial conditions. Dow ETFs: ( DIA ), ( DDM ), ( UDOW ), ( DOG ), ( DXD ), and ( SDOW ). S&P 500 ETFs: ( SPY ), ( VOO ), ( IVV ), ( RSP ), ( SSO ), ( UPRO ), ( SH ), ( SDS ), ( SPXU ), ( FXAIX ), ( VFIAX ), ( VFFSX ), and ( SWPPX ). Nasdaq ETFs: ( QQQ ), ( QQQM ), ( SQQQ ), ( TQQQ ), ( QLD ), and ( QID ). More on markets Dividend Roundup: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Merck & Co., Target, and more When will a U.S.–Iran ceasefire happen? Prediction markets point to early summer DXY climbs back above 100...