这为中国加强国际核电交流合作、推动核电“走出去”带来了新的战略机遇。 据国家国防科技工业局官方微信公众号“科工微报”3月12日消息，3月10日，在法国巴黎举行的第二届核能峰会上，中国宣布加入《三倍核能宣言》。该宣言的核心目标是，到2050年将全球核能装机容量增至2020年的三倍。 中国国家原子能机构主任单忠德出席峰会“三倍核能计划”圆桌讨论，并代表中方宣布加入《三倍核能宣言》。单忠德表示，实现2050年全球核能增至三倍的目标，需要各国团结协作、共同努力。作为《巴黎协定》的重要推动者和积极践行者，中国愿意为实现《三倍核能宣言》愿景目标，共建清洁、美丽、可持续的世界继续提供中国智慧、中国方案、中国力量。 《三倍核能宣言》由法国等22个国家共同发起，核心目标是到2050年将全球核能装机增至2020年的三倍，以助力实现本世纪中叶左右全球净零排放，以及《巴黎协定》提出的全球温控目标。宣言提出11项共同行动，涵盖核电运行安全和乏燃料管理、核能项目融资、核能多元利用、核产业链供应链韧性、在运核电机组延寿等多个方面。本届峰会上，随着中国、巴西、比利时等国家宣布加入，共有38个国家加入宣言。 在全球能源转型与地缘政治影响下，核能的战略价值越发凸显。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩最近表示，欧盟过去降低核电在电力结构中的占比是一项战略性错误。1990年欧盟约三分之一电力来自核能，如今这一比例已降至约15%。中东地区冲突引发能源价格大幅波动，充分暴露了欧洲高度依赖化石燃料进口的能源体系脆弱性，也让扩大可再生能源与核能发电的紧迫性更加突出。 核能作为清洁、稳定的低碳能源，是可大规模替代化石能源的重要基荷电源。与部分国家政策摇摆形成对比，中国核电发展始终保持稳健节奏。2022至2025年，中国连续每年核准10台机组，2024年更是核准了11台。每一台核电机组的投资额约200亿元，41台机组的总投资超过8000亿元。 当前，中国在运核电机组数量及装机容量稳步提升，大陆地区在运及核准在建核电机组已达112台，装机规模1.25亿千瓦，已成为世界第一核电大国；2025年，核电发电量约4800亿千瓦时，占全国总发电量的4.8%、占一次能源消费总量的2%。 而在装备方面，中国已经形成全球最完整的核电装备产业链供应链体系，具备每年10台（套）核电主设备制造能力，关键设备、核心材料实现自主设计、自主制造，设备国产化率...

据央视新闻消息，美军欧洲司令部司令格林克维奇在美国参议院军事委员会听证会上证实，今年2月28日伊朗南部一所小学遭袭系美军所为。格林克维奇解释称，此次袭击是由于一系列错误和失误而发生的。此事件引发国际社会广泛关注，要求美方进行彻底调查并避免类似事件再次发生。(央视新闻)

在迄今机器人最多的一届AWE，家庭服务机器人涌现。未来三年，具身智能有望进入家庭，但不一定是人形机器人。 3月12日开幕的2026 AWE（中国家电及消费电子博览会），是机器人最多的一届AWE。第一财经记者在现场感受到，多种家庭服务机器人涌现，会炒菜的、会收纳的、会扫楼梯的……具身智能预计三年内将有望进入家庭，但不一定是人形机器人。 更快实现的是，给各类家电装上AI大脑。企业正在空调、电视、厨房电器等家电中，植入越来越多的AI芯片与算力。AI生活正扑面而来，离普通百姓越来越近。 机器人进入家庭预计还要三年 在本届AWE，海尔发布了三款家庭机器人，陪伴机器人可做跌倒检测、吃药提醒，清洁机器人可做清洁收纳、定点清扫，家务机器人可以开关冰箱门、抓取餐具和衣物。海信发布了陪伴机器人，科沃斯发布了管家机器人，石头展出了会爬楼梯的扫地机、方太展示了机器人“总厨”…… 科沃斯此次推出非人形的家庭服务管家机器人，带轮足和机械臂，可从地上捡起玩具、收拾桌面杂物，还可把衣服放进洗衣机。“预计三年内可以进入家庭”，科沃斯董事长钱东奇说，这款机器人融合了AI大模型、智能体等技术，它要真正进入家庭一方面要技术更加成熟，另一方面还要考虑到用户愿意花多少钱把它带回家。 海信视像总裁李炜也向第一财经记者表示，具身智能正加速走进家庭。家庭服务覆盖衣食住行娱康伴等多个场景，家庭服务机器人行业正处在快速突破的关键阶段。海信此次推出的智能陪伴机器人，是在“闺蜜机”的形态上进化的，可以提供聊天陪伴、穿衣搭配建议、健康检测、安全巡查等服务，未来将演进为智能生活助手。 松下电器株式会社CSO（首席战略官）、中国东北亚事业总裁中山正春在接受第一财经记者采访时也说，谈到具身智能进入家庭，人们会先联想到人形机器人。其实一些机器人技术在洗衣机里已经有应用，只是消费者不一定会感知到。AI、机器人技术在家电中正逐步广泛使用，但是人形机器人进入家庭还需要时间。 除了“能力”外，价格也是制约具身智能在家庭普及的一大因素。第一财经记者看到，一家电商平台此次AWE带来了一批人形机器人在现场展示，每个人形机器人身上都有一个二维码。有的观众用手机一扫，看到一款人形机器人在电商平台上的售价是69999元，便跟记者说只是“看看而已”。 家电AI化“八仙过海” 相比服务机器人“新物种”进家，家电AI化是让AI普惠百姓生活更现实的路径。过去十...

据伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台13日报道，伊朗武装部队司令部称，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军对美国“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航空母舰发动袭击，目前该航母已失去作战能力，离开事发海域返回美国。 据伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社12日报道，伊朗驻俄罗斯大使卡齐姆·贾拉利表示，伊方打击“林肯”号航母是“对侵略者的警告”。他强调，随着侵略持续，“敌方部队和装备的损失将会越来越大”。 数小时前，美军中央司令部在社交媒体上说，“林肯”号航母打击群正“从海上投射力量”，持续支持对伊朗的军事行动。 此前伊朗方面多次表示，伊朗向“林肯”号航母发射了导弹。美军多次否认“林肯”号航母被伊朗导弹击中，称伊朗导弹甚至未能接近该航母。

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. cut the volume of crude for its onshore partners by about a fifth for this month, although the flows will still go to a port outside the all-but-shuttered Strait of Hormuz. The state-owned oil producer told its equity partners that they will be permitted to load only 80% of their remaining Murban barrels for March, people familiar with the matter said. No specific reason was given, they said, asking not to be identified as they’re not allowed to speak publicly. Still, the shipments of the United Arab Emirates’ flagship grade crude can still be picked up from the port of Fujairah, they said. Earlier, the company had said they would need to be collected from Jebel Dhanna , a facility located inside the Persian Gulf, which would have required passage through the strait. The global oil market has been pitched into turmoil by the war between the US, Israel and Iran, with the International Energy Agency describing the disruption as unprecedented. Tehran has been striking out across the Middle East, including at the UAE, with missiles and drones, as well as at vessels. The Strait of Hormuz — which links the Persian Gulf to global markets — is effectively closed. With the conflict at the two-week mark, Adnoc’s move follows other instances of Asian refiners being unable to pick up their March-loading shipments. Some buyers have had their Middle East orders dropped over a lack of transport options, traders familiar with the matter said. Adnoc owns 60% of the onshore concession, which has capacity to pump about 2 million barrels of Murban a day. TotalEnergies SE, BP Plc, China National Petroleum Corp., Inpex Corp. , Zhenhua Oil Co. and GS Energy Corp. hold the rest. Adnoc and Inpex declined to comment. The five other equity partner companies didn’t respond to requests for comment. Meanwhile, Adnoc’s trading arm is marketing Murban barrels on the spot market for loading this month and next, traders in Asia said. It is seeking to sell the volumes at pr...

(RTTNews) - The Australian stock market is swinging to modest gains in mid-market moves on Friday after opening in the red, following the broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is staying above the 8,400 level, with gains in gold miners and financial stocks partially offset by weakness in iron ore miners and technology stocks. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index is gaining 12.20 points or 0.15 percent to 8,422.00, after hitting a low of 8,384.10 earlier. The broader All Ordinaries Index is up 8.90 points or 0.10 percent to 8,646.70. Australian stocks closed modestly higher on Thursday. Among major miners, Fortescue Metals is losing more than 1 percent, Rio Tinto is edging down 0.5 percent and Mineral Resources is declining almost 3 percent, while BHP Group is edging up 0.1 percent. Oil stocks are mostly lower. Woodside Energy and Santos are losing more than 1 percent each, while Beach energy is down 1.5 percent. Origin Energy is gaining almost 1 percent. Among tech stocks, Afterpay-owner Block is losing almost 3 percent, Xero is slipping more than 1 percent, Zip is declining almost 2 percent, WiseTech Global is down more than 2 percent and Appen is sliding almost 6 percent. Among the big four banks, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac are adding almost 1 percent, while ANZ Banking is edging up 0.3 percent. Gold miners are mostly higher. Gold Road Resources is gaining more than 1 percent and Evolution Mining is edging up 0.2 percent, while Resolute Mining and Northern Star Resources are adding almost 2 percent each. Newmont is edging down 0.4 percent. In other news, shares in HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT are jumping almost 11 percent after striking an agreement with Healthscope and its receivers to partially defer rental payments. In economic news, Australian retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent in April 2025, missing market expectations for a 0.3 percent rise. This marked the first decline in retail tu...

US Treasuries volatility jumped to a nine-month high as the Iran war fanned inflation concerns and upended traders’ expectations on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The ICE BofA Move Index , often referred to as the “fear gauge” of the bond market, climbed to levels last seen in June as elevated oil prices stoke inflation fears, hurting the real return on Treasuries and limiting their haven appeal. US President Donald Trump and Iran are both striking defiant tones on the war, creating uncertainty about the length of the conflict. Yields on 30-year Treasuries — securities sensitive to inflation and government spending dynamics — have climbed to the highest in a month, while traders have dialed back bets on any Fed interest-rate cuts in 2026. “As bond investors, we have to start thinking in terms of stagflation, which always creates a huge amount of uncertainty,” said Jack McIntyre , portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. “Therefore I need to be compensated from a volatility standpoint.” Bonds from the US to Japan and Australia have dropped since the Iran war began two weeks ago as investors focus on what higher oil prices would mean for the global economy. Treasuries have set the tone for government debt across the world, with yields marching upward as investors bet central banks may have to hike rates sooner rather than later to combat inflation. Trump has also renewed his call for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates, adding to risks to the outlook for US monetary policy and volatility. Two-year US yields have risen to their highest levels since August, while one-year US inflation swaps are nearing 3% — a signal that investors expect stronger price pressures ahead. “Bonds are not acting as a safe haven given the inflation dynamics,” said Chris Weston , head of research at Pepperstone Group. “Markets are increasingly suggesting the situation could persist for longer, with potentially more pronounced implications for inflation and central ...

院方称成立整改专班，责令相关科室深刻检查，对涉事医务人员作出停职处理 【财新网】 一患者凌晨被困核磁共振仪6小时，这起令公众难以接受的医疗事故发生在武汉知名公立三甲医院。 2月25日晚10时许，因颈部疼痛，武汉唐先生按预约前往华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院（下称“同济医院”）汉口院区做核磁共振检查。2月26日凌晨0时许，他躺上核磁共振机器，医生固定了其头部，脸部罩着有面罩。此后，医生因有其他工作着急离开。离开前，她在系统上记下唐先生检查已完成，并告诉同事唐先生还在机器上，但同事忘了检查机器上还有没有人。据上游新闻3月12日报道，直到26日早晨6时许，唐先生才被保洁员“解救”。

At A$4.5 trillion ($3.2 trillion), Australia’s pension system is the fourth-largest pool of retirement savings in the world — and the fastest-growing among major markets. It’s expected to overtake the UK and Canada by the early 2030s to become the second-largest globally. While the US has by far the largest retirement pool in dollar terms, Australia punches above its weight when assets are measured against the size of its economy. The sector now equals roughly 150% of Australia’s gross domestic product and is forecast to approach 250% by 2060 . That scale makes it a powerful source of capital across the economy. How does Australia’s pension system work? Australia’s retirement income system — known as superannuation — is widely regarded as a success, largely because saving for retirement is mandatory. Employers must pay 12% of a worker’s salary into an account set up for their retirement, and those funds are then invested. The system is predominantly made up of defined-contribution plans, where retirement income depends on how much is paid in and how those funds perform in the market. They have largely replaced defined-benefit schemes, which promise a fixed payout based on salary and years of service. Workers can generally choose their own superannuation fund. The largest — including AustralianSuper and CBUS Super — began as industry funds backed by unions and employer groups to serve sectors such as construction, health care and hospitality but are now open to most workers. They are typically run on a not-for-profit basis. Retail funds, by contrast, are usually for-profit and owned by a financial institution. There are also corporate funds that are tied to a specific employer, as well as public-sector schemes for government employees. There are also more than 650,000 self-managed super funds , according to government data , and they collectively manage about A$1.2 trillion in assets. A means-tested government age pension remains in place as a safety net for those wi...

格隆汇3月13日｜Omdia数据显示，2025年第四季度，拉美地区智能手机市场同比增长12%，全年增长3%，出货量创纪录达1.405亿部。

日本财务大臣片山皋月周五表示，当局已做好准备，在任何情况下都采取一切必要措施应对汇率问题，同时考虑到油价上涨对人们日常生活的影响。 片山表示，很明显，受中东局势发展的影响，包括外汇在内的金融市场正在出现大幅波动。 片山拒绝就具体汇率置评。 当被问及在日元贬值受油价飙升驱动的当前形势下，外汇干预是否会很困难时，片山表示她不便评论。 片山表示，日本当局正与美国当局保持非常密切的沟通，甚至比平时更加密切。 责任编辑：于健 SF069

格隆汇3月13日｜SC原油主力合约日内暴涨8%，现报769.40元/桶。

Key Points Scott Lovett, Fastly's President of Go to Market, sold 73,715 shares for ~$1.55 million on March 4, 2026, at a weighted average price around $21.06 per share. This represented 4.46% of Lovett's direct holdings at the time, reducing direct ownership to 1,580,513 shares post-transaction. The disposition involved only direct holdings, with no indirect entities or derivative securities reported; all Common Stock positions in the filing are held directly. Lovett retains 1,580,513 shares of directly-held Common Stock following the transaction. 10 stocks we like better than Fastly › Scott R. Lovett, President of Go to Market at Fastly (NASDAQ:FSLY), reported the sale of 73,715 shares of Common Stock in an open-market transaction on March 4, 2026, as disclosed in the SEC Form 4 filing. Transaction summary Metric Value Shares sold (direct) 73,715 Transaction value $1.6 million Post-transaction shares (direct) 1,580,513 Post-transaction value (direct ownership) ~$31.7 million Transaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average purchase price ($21.06); post-transaction value based on March 4, 2026 market close price. Key questions How does the size of this sale compare to Scott Lovett's historical trading activity? The 73,715-share sale is substantially larger than Lovett's median direct sale over the prior year, which was 42,172 shares, and represents 4.46% of his holdings at the time, compared to a recent median of 2.36% per sale. The 73,715-share sale is substantially larger than Lovett's median direct sale over the prior year, which was 42,172 shares, and represents 4.46% of his holdings at the time, compared to a recent median of 2.36% per sale. What proportion of Lovett's original position remains after this transaction? Following the sale, Lovett's direct Common Stock position stands at 1,580,513 shares, roughly 73.7% of his June 2024 holdings, reflecting a gradual reduction over 21 months. Following the sale, Lovett's direct Common Stock position stands a...

朝中社13日发表评论说，日本试图重新武装、推动军国主义复活，不顾世人强烈担忧和谴责，将触碰“红线”。 评论指出，当下面临的现实是，由于日本军国主义复活，地区安全环境更加严峻。如果日本不顾世人强烈担忧和谴责，继续像现在这样不合时宜地“胡作非为”，将触碰“红线”，最终被卷入不好事情中。 日本防卫省9日凌晨已将陆基改进型12式反舰导弹的发射装置运抵熊本县熊本市的陆上自卫队健军驻屯地，并表示将于本月31日在健军驻屯地正式部署。(新华社)

格隆汇3月13日｜英国国防部长表示，可能会增加军事支持，以保护霍尔木兹海峡的船只。

Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) sees a more significant dip than broader market: Some facts to know MSN

SC原油主力合约日内暴涨8.00%，现报769.40元/桶 2026-03-13 11:18:02 来源： 同花顺7x24快讯 分享 文章提及标的 原油主力合约 -- SC原油主力合约日内暴涨8.00%，现报769.40元/桶。 伊以冲突再起 一图深挖原油产业链背后赚钱机会>>>

Nepal ex-rapper's party wins election in landslide after Gen Z protests Reuters

当地时间12日，美国作为安理会3月轮值主席，在“不扩散”议程项目下召集安理会会议，强推与伊朗问题相关的第1737号制裁委员会工作。中国和俄罗斯对此明确反对。中方表示，“快速恢复制裁”机制存在程序和法律上的缺陷，并敦促美国和以色列立即停止军事行动，不得攻击接受国际原子能机构保障监督的伊朗核设施，防止局势进一步升级和战事外溢。（央视新闻）

格隆汇3月13日｜自美国总统特朗普上台以来，他一直大肆鼓吹低油价，并把油价下跌归为自己的功劳，然而随着美伊战争大幅推高油价，特朗普的态度出现了180度大转弯：他转而将高油价描绘成一件好事。这一态度大转弯出现之际，特朗普团队正苦于拿不出明确方案，让中东关键的霍尔木兹海峡恢复通行，从而令满载石油和天然气的船只不再受困于海湾地区。 “美国是目前世界上最大的石油生产国，所以当油价上涨时，我们能大赚一笔。” 特朗普周四在其自创的社交媒体平台“真实社交”上发文称。他没有说明“我们”指的是谁。但美国大型石油公司正从伊朗战争引发的油价上涨中获利，但普通民众却面临加油成本上涨的压力。特朗普的这一言论引发了一些国会议员的批评，称其只关心富人，而不是普通劳动者。

格隆汇3月13日｜中金发表研报指，太平洋航运2025年业绩逊该行预期，主要因期租等价收益(TCE)逊预期。该行认为其股息具吸引力，维持“跑赢行业”评级；鉴于风险胃纳上升，将目标价上调41.67%至3.4港元，相当于预测今明两年市盈率分别12.9倍及12.5倍。中金维持2026年净利润预测为1.76亿美元不变，并引入2027年净利润预测1.8亿美元。

Apple (AAPL) Reduces App Store Commission Rates in China GuruFocus

消防處今年首兩個月接獲221宗非法油站投訴，比去年每月平均多逾四成，檢控宗數亦較去年每月平均多八成五。處方指，相信近日油價波動，令非法油站增加。 消防處消防區長(危險品執法)吳頴哲稱：「(汽油)價格波動，我們也不排除這些情況會令一些駕車人士去貪圖便宜，成為光顧這些非法油站的誘因。一旦發生洩漏、操作不當，或者有火種，都可能造成火警或爆炸。因為它們的碎片化、流動化的趨勢，它們的流動性會比較高，亦隱蔽性高，通常他們的手法是很短時間，會將(非法)油站四處移動，所以我們再去用一些傳統巡查，可能要結合情報分析，或者跨部門情報分享，甚至乎是科技，例如用無人機去做巡邏。」

格隆汇3月13日｜据彭博，日本及其他亚太国家定于本周末公布与美国公司达成价值至少300亿美元的协议。这些交易将采取采购承诺及其他交易形式，涵盖煤炭、石油、液化天然气和核能等多个产品及行业。

伊拉克民兵武装“伊斯兰抵抗组织”13日发表声明说，袭击两架美军空中加油机，其中一架被击落。 该组织在一份声明中说：“为捍卫主权和领空免受敌军战机侵犯，我们在伊拉克西部地区击落了一架美军KC－135空中加油机。” 随后，该组织再次发表声明说，过去24小时内，他们在伊拉克西部袭击了第二架美军KC－135空中加油机，造成这架加油机迫降。 稍早前，据伊朗方面援引伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人的话说，一架美军加油机在伊拉克西部被防空系统击中并坠毁，机上人员全部死亡。 另据美军中央司令部消息，美军一架KC-135空中加油机在伊拉克西部坠毁。美军称，这一事件“并非因敌方火力或友军误伤所致”。据美国方面消息，美国官员称在伊拉克坠毁的加油机上有至少5名机组人员，目前伤亡情况尚不清楚。

Image source: The Motley Fool. Thursday, March 12, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET CALL PARTICIPANTS President and Chief Executive Officer — Angela Selden Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer — Edward Codispoti Chief Strategy and Growth Officer — Gary Janson TAKEAWAYS Consolidated Revenue -- $158.3 million for the quarter, a decrease of 3.5% due to government shutdown-related impacts, but above the company's most recent guidance. -- $158.3 million for the quarter, a decrease of 3.5% due to government shutdown-related impacts, but above the company's most recent guidance. Segment Revenue: APUS -- $71 million, down 13.8%, driven by a 43-day student registration interruption and a 15.3% decline in net course registrations to 82,200 students. -- $71 million, down 13.8%, driven by a 43-day student registration interruption and a 15.3% decline in net course registrations to 82,200 students. Segment Revenue: Rasmussen University -- $66.6 million, up 15.9%, with enrollment growth of 8.9% to 15,900 students, marking six consecutive quarters of enrollment increases. -- $66.6 million, up 15.9%, with enrollment growth of 8.9% to 15,900 students, marking six consecutive quarters of enrollment increases. Segment Revenue: Hondros College of Nursing -- $20.7 million, an increase of 9.2%, with enrollment of 4,000 students, up 8.1%. -- $20.7 million, an increase of 9.2%, with enrollment of 4,000 students, up 8.1%. Adjusted EBITDA -- $28.7 million for the quarter with an 18.1% margin, exceeding guidance but down year over year due to shutdown impacts. -- $28.7 million for the quarter with an 18.1% margin, exceeding guidance but down year over year due to shutdown impacts. Net Income Available to Common Stockholders -- $12.6 million or $0.67 per diluted share, reflecting an increase of 9.6% and 6.3%, respectively. -- $12.6 million or $0.67 per diluted share, reflecting an increase of 9.6% and 6.3%, respectively. Full Year Revenue -- $648.9 million, up 3.9% despite federal government ...

Donny DBM/iStock via Getty Images Market Review The S&P Global Infrastructure Index advanced 2.2% in the fourth quarter. Benchmark performance was led higher by solid performance in the utility and transportation infrastructure sectors. The midstream energy segment was the only notable area of index weakness during the period. Quarter The PGIM Jennison Global Infrastructure Fund advanced but modestly underperformed the S&P Global Infrastructure Index for the quarter. In absolute terms, the Fund was led by strong performance from Ferrovial ( FER ), selected names in the Utility sector (GREENERGY RENOVABLES, Elia Group, Italgas) and the transportation company Group Aeroportuario del Pacifico. A number of Utilities also underperformed during the period, such as Vistra, Southern Company ( SO ), Xcel Energy ( XEL ), as did Cheniere Energy ( LNG ). Relative to the S&P Global Infrastructure Index, the Fund's positioning in transportation infrastructure detracted the most from relative results. In addition, out of index exposure to communications and information technology hurt relative performance. On the upside, the Fund's positioning in midstream energy and utilities benefited relative performance during the period. Key Contributors Ferrovial Grenergy Renovables Elia Group Ferrovial , the Spain-based infrastructure and construction company, maintained its strong momentum through the fourth quarter, supported by resilient performance across its core toll road portfolio and continued strength in North American traffic volumes. Revenue growth remained robust, aided by a strong double digit price increase announced for its primary Canadian concession in 2026. Additionally, Ferrovial will be included in the Nasdaq 100 adding to buying momentum in the name. Grenergy Renovables , a Madrid-based renewable energy company, was a notable contributor during the quarter as investor sentiment toward European renewable energy operators improved following easing bond yields and supporti...

在应对又一轮战争引发的通胀威胁时，欧洲央行深知此次情况可能截然不同，且自身处于更有利的应对位置。 随着伊朗局势升级及相应的能源成本飙升，再度激发了市场对加息的押注，官员们敏锐地意识到这与2022年的相似之处，当年俄乌冲突最终导致消费者价格增速失控。 但行长拉加德及其同僚面临的形势在很大程度上有所不同。这种差异既体现在当前的货币与财政政策组合上，也体现在经济状况和能源供应来源等方面。 尽管为避免重蹈乌克兰危机覆辙而催生的市场押注，确实迫使欧洲央行审视其中的相似之处，并强调其已做好行动准备，但官员们暗示在下周的政策决定中不会采取任何行动。 高盛首席欧洲经济学家雅里·斯泰恩表示：“与2022年确实有一些相似之处，但可能存在着更多且更重大的差异。因此，近期事态发展无疑需要密切关注，但目前也无需过度放大这种比较。” 全球加息预期的转变，正加剧各国央行对通胀冲击可能持续的敏感度。目前，市场对下周澳大利亚加息以及最早4月日本加息的预期正在形成或强化。 在乌克兰战争冲击期间，许多货币机构反应迟缓，而欧洲央行因行动甚至晚于同行而承受了最严厉的批评。斯泰恩称，这一记忆将提醒政策制定者，但不会促使其立即采取行动。 与2022年的核心相似之处在于，军事行动已引发 石油 和 天然气 价格大幅飙升，原油价格一度突破每桶100美元。欧盟官员警告称，这种冲击如果持续下去，可能导致今年通胀率超过3%。 但这一前景并未设想该地区会出现2022年那样的能源成本高位，且其所包含的消费者价格峰值要温和得多。例如，德国当前的 电力 价格仅为欧洲最大经济体当年最严重时期的一小部分，天然气价格亦是如此。 UniCredit策略主管卢卡·卡祖拉尼表示：“2022年时，天然气价格长期居高不下，而鉴于欧洲能源结构如今更加多元化，这种情况不太可能再次发生。这将在相对意义上抑制通胀冲动。” 消费者价格增长的起点也较低。在2月24日之前，受能源成本飙升、疫情相关的经济紊乱、供应链中断以及疫情催生的财政和货币刺激措施影响，2022年1月通胀率已达到5.1%。而最近的读数为1.9%，略低于欧洲央行2%的目标，尽管潜在价格压力和工资增长对官员们而言仍略高于舒适区。 法国巴黎 银行 Markets 360发达市场经济学主管保罗·霍林斯沃思认为，全球宏观经济背景也显著不同，且欧洲的就业形势不如四年前严峻。他在一份报告中写道：“劳动力市...