Corning (GLW) reported Q1 2026 core sales of $4.35 billion, representing an 18% year-over-year increase. The core insight hiding beneath this headline beat is how entirely the AI-driven acceleration is offsetting the more modest growth currently seen in the company's traditional Glass Innovations segment.

核心要点 众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫・斯卡利斯周四表示，尽管在 11 月这场关键选举前共和党面临强劲逆风，但仍有机会在 2026 年中期选举中赢得众议院多数席位。 民调显示，选举前夕选民对唐纳德・特朗普总统及国会共和党人的不满情绪加剧，主要源于对经济状况的失望。 不过，民主党要拿下参议院难度更大，本轮选举周期需突破不利的席位分布格局。 路易斯安那州共和党众议员史蒂夫・斯卡利斯，于 2025 年 11 月 3 日（周一）在美国华盛顿特区国会大厦出席新闻发布会。 众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫・斯卡利斯周四称，尽管在 11 月这场关键选举前共和党面临强劲逆风，但该党仍有机会在 2026 年中期选举中赢得众议院多数席位。 民调显示，选举前夕选民对唐纳德・特朗普总统及国会共和党人的不满情绪加剧，核心原因是对经济状况不满。近期美国联合通讯社与 NORC 公共事务研究中心的民调显示，特朗普在经济议题上的支持率已跌至 30%，高达 70% 的选民不认可其执政表现。 此次选举意义重大，将直接决定特朗普 2027 年的政治处境：是面对民主党控制的国会、沦为 “跛脚鸭” 总统，还是在剩余两年任期内维持共和党执政多数。 周四，斯卡利斯在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）《 Squawk Box 》节目采访时称，共和党仍能挺过当前危机 —— 部分危机源于伊朗战争导致的物价飞涨。 他表示：“我们的取胜之道，首要在于 提高投票率 ，并兑现承诺，真正扭转一年半前我们接手时的混乱局面。” 伊朗战争导致汽油价格高企，而夏季出行旺季将至，油价暂无回落迹象。周四早盘，美国原油价格徘徊在每桶 105 美元附近；据美国汽车协会（AAA）数据，全国汽油均价已达每加仑 4.30 美元。选民多次就生活成本问题批评特朗普及共和党，民主党则凭借 “降低生活成本” 的主张，在 2025 年多项非大选年选举中大获全胜。 斯卡利斯还批评民主党拒绝为美国国土安全部（DHS）提供资金，称共和党 2024 年凭借移民议题取胜，2026 年仍可复制这一优势。 他说：“中期选举对执政党而言向来艰难，但如今的民主党已今非昔比。华盛顿的民主党人在各项议题上一贯投反对票，如今甚至阻挠国土安全部整体运作。归根结底，这对他们毫无益处……11 月大选，他们必须为此付出代价。” 此前，特朗普在明尼苏达州推行移民强硬政策，导致两名美国公民死亡，此后民主党...

American fabless semiconductor manufacturer and AI company Astera Labs (NASDAQ: ALAB) is in the middle of a momentum regime change. The chart, the income statement, and the AI capex cycle are all confirming this at once, and the technical setup behind the next leg higher will continue to compound rather than fade. Astera Labs closed at ... What an Astera Labs Golden Cross Tells Investors About the Next Leg Up

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Standard Motor Products ( SMP ) declares $0.33/share quarterly dividend , in line with previous. Forward yield 3.55% Payable June 1; for shareholders of record May 15; ex-div May 15. See SMP Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) offers specialized exposure to chipmakers with lower costs, while the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (NYSEMKT:IYW) provides a broader, lower-volatility play across the entire technology sector. Investors looking for outsized growth often turn to the technology sector, but the level of concentration significantly impacts the risk profile. While the iShares Semiconductor ETF drills deep into a single industry, the iShares U.S. Technology ETF casts a wider net across software, hardware, and communication services. This comparison examines how these two funds from the same issuer balance growth potential against sector-specific volatility. Beta measures price volatility relative to the S&P 500; beta is calculated from five-year monthly returns. The 1-yr return represents total return over the trailing 12 months. Dividend yield is the trailing-12-month distribution yield. Continue reading

champc/iStock via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from the Allspring Growth Fund Q1 2026 Commentary. Top Contributors and Detractors to Quarter-end Fund Performance CONTRIBUTORS Comfort Systems USA, Inc. ( FIX ) Vertiv Holdings Co. Quanta Services, Inc. Carpenter Technology Corp. ( CRS ) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. ( TSM ) DETRACTORS AppLovin Corp. Robinhood Markets, Inc. DoorDash, Inc. Reddit, Inc. ( RDDT ) Shopify Inc. ( SHOP ) The holdings identified do not represent all of the securities purchased or sold during the period shown and should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular security. Information on calculation methodology and a list showing the overall contribution of each holding in the account for the period shown are available upon request. Click to enlarge Contributors Comfort Systems USA ( FIX ) supports the data center build-out with speed. Comfort Systems provides cooling, electrical, and plumbing services that are used in data centers and essential to the build-out of AI infrastructure. The company entered 2026 with a robust backlog and high visibility into projected revenue for complex projects. As speed is one of the greatest challenges in the build-out of AI data centers, Comfort Systems has benefited from increased adoption of its modular solutions, which are manufactured offsite and well suited for labor-constrained, rural markets. During the quarter, estimate revisions accelerated meaningfully as growth far outpaced expectations while labor shortages reinforced pricing power and supported margins. We believe the company remains well positioned to benefit from robust and sustainable demand for AI-driven infrastructure. Vertiv Holdings Co. ( VRT ) continues to heat up. The company manufactures innovative cooling and power solutions for data centers that consume substantially less energy than legacy systems. As hyper-scaler capex has fueled a massive build-out of AI infrastructure, th...

Key PointsThe long-term trajectory of the S&P 500 is tied to the trajectory of the U.S. economy.

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Meta (NASDAQ: META) both recently dropped Q1 2026 results, and the earnings reports could not have framed two more different empires. Amazon is becoming the picks-and-shovels landlord of the AI era. Meta is racing to become a superintelligence platform on top of the world’s largest social graph. Same day, same beat, ... Amazon vs. Meta: Which Stock Will Win Over the Next Decade?

财联社4月30日讯（编辑 冯轶） 今日港股在多重宏观风险影响下再度走低。截至收盘，恒生指数、国企指数分别下跌1.28%及1.41%，恒生科技指数跌0.79%。 【多空反复拉锯 恒指跌破26000点放量震荡】 盘面上，今日大型科网股再度普跌，小米跌3.7%，阿里巴巴跌3.5%，腾讯跌超2%，美团逆势飘红。 其他方向上，黄金及有色板块跌幅居前，银行、券商、基建、航空等蓝筹板块走弱。此外，锂电、汽车、光伏等行业也出现调整。 上涨的板块中，半导体板块独自强势，乳业、啤酒等假期经济概念短线活跃。 整体上看，港股短线仍处震荡区间，多空反复拉锯。 今日恒指全天成交2915.53亿港元，资金交投明显放量，再度跌破26000点关口。 沽空方面，总沽空金额为436.66亿港元，相当于恒指成交额的14.98%，延续高位徘徊态势。 小米集团-W、阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股沽空金额位居前三，分别为30.46亿港元、19.45亿港元、16亿港元。 【热门板块跌多涨少 地缘局势僵持AI主线分化】 行情层面，今日各大板块跌多涨少，AI主线内部分化，半导体等产业链上游继续走强。 短线来看，由于AI算力产业链上游一季报普遍超预期，对相关概念股行情仍有催化。 此外，港股互联网公司3月底已完成年报集中披露，此前市场担忧的外卖补贴竞争、AI业务资本开支增加等利空因素已有所消化，后续的反弹预期也正吸引资金关注。 不过，美伊谈判则陷入“边封锁边喊话”的僵局。据媒体报道，特朗普将听取打击伊朗新方案，打击目标很有可能包括伊朗的基础设施。 综合来看，地缘风险不确定性增加或进一步令港股行情出现结构分化。 而宏观层面，4月中国制造业采购经理指数为50.3%，连续2个月运行在扩张区间。其中，高技术制造业新订单指数保持在53%以上，或继续验证硬科技方向的景气度。 【A股高位震荡延续多头氛围 5月科技行情仍需关注业绩预期】 另一方面，今日A股则是高位震荡，三大指数涨跌不一。沪深两市成交额约27409.11亿元，短线继续放量，延续多头氛围。 展望后市，银河证券指出，当前科技与周期板块的剪刀差显著。建议采取“均衡配置+聚焦业绩”的策略。科技、AI、光通信当前处于“高景气、高估值、高拥挤”状态，5月更应关注业绩持续超预期的细分方向。同时战略资源重估与地缘安全溢价，也让有色金属、石油石化、钢铁等方向具备弹性。

北京时间4月30日晚，美股周四早盘涨跌不一，道指上涨逾400点。交易员正在梳理最新一批企业财报，同时油价小幅下跌。美国3月核心通胀率升至3.2%，一季度GDP增长2%。 道指涨429.85点，涨幅为0.88%，报49291.66点；纳指跌71.32点，跌幅为0.29%，报24601.92点；标普500指数涨3.83点，涨幅为0.05%，报7139.78点。 卡特彼勒 股价因季度业绩好于预期而上涨6%，提振了道指期货。道指成分股 亚马逊 同样推动涨势，在第一季度重磅财报公布后攀升逾2%。 值得注意的是，由于Meta Platforms和 微软 分别下跌9%和2%，标普500和 纳斯达克 指数的涨幅受到抑制。Meta股价受累于其最新资本支出指引，同时用户增长令人失望。微软表示由于内存成本高企，支出将达到1900亿美元，股价随之回落。 油价周四逆转走势，布伦特原油期货下跌3%，交投于114美元/桶上方；西得克萨斯中质原油期货下跌2%，交投于104美元/桶上方。周三，由于美国与伊朗之间海外紧张局势持续高企，原油价格上涨。据报道，特朗普总统已告知其助手准备对伊朗实施长期封锁。 华尔街此前刚刚结束了涨跌互现的交易日，道指周三下跌逾200点，而标普500和纳斯达克指数基本收平。 此前，美联储投票决定将利率维持在3.5%至3.75%的区间不变，这基本符合投资者预期，不过8比4的投票结果是自1992年以来首次有四名美联储官员持反对意见。 4月美联储政策会议很可能是美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔在下月任期结束前的最后一次掌舵会议。被特朗普提名接替鲍威尔的凯文-沃什似乎将接管美联储。 Carson Group全球宏观策略师Sonu Varghese认为，降息道路上出现了更多障碍。他在周三的电子邮件中表示：“美联储维持利率不变，我们预计这种情况将持续到今年余下时间。 几位FOMC成员显然对通胀上升感到不安，并希望发出信号表明下一步行动可能不是降息。随着鲍威尔选择继续担任美联储理事，包括即将上任的主席凯文-沃什在内的支持降息者成为少数派。沃什将很难说服多数人降息。” 周四也是4月的最后一个交易日，本月科技股大幅上涨。标普500指数有望上涨9.3%，纳斯达克指数有望上涨14.3%，这两大指数均有望创下自2020年以来最佳月度表现。道指4月涨幅预计为5.4%，为2024年11月以来最强月度表现。 周四...

《 科创 板日报》4月30日（记者 李佳怡） 近日， 上海 商米科技集团股份有限公司（下称“商米科技”）在港交所主板挂牌上市，其为全球最大的安卓端商业 物联网 解决方案提供商，市场份额超10%。 《科创板日报》记者注意到，2023年至2025年前三季度，商米科技营业收入分别为30.71亿元、34.56亿元和22.4亿元。目前来看， 智能 设备销售仍为商米科技贡献99%以上营收， PaaS 等软件服务虽增速达87.7%，但体量尚小。 上市后，如何从硬件冠军向平台生态跨越，仍是林喆需要面对的长线考题。 ▎港股"打新"新标杆，首日涨幅达241% 4月29日，商米科技正式在港交所主板挂牌上市，发行价为每股24.86港元，首日开盘报97.5港元，较发行价上涨292.2%。截至当日收盘，报84.8港元，上涨241.11%，总市值为341.43亿港元。 商米科技成立于2013年，总部位于 上海 ，其业务模式集智能硬件、软件及数据洞察于一体，赋能线下商业场景实现数字化转型，产品涵盖智能设备、SUNMAX BIoT PaaS平台以及尚未实现商业化的数据驱动智能网络SUNMATRIX。 在市场份额方面，根据灼识咨询的数据，按2024年收入计，商米科技占据全球安卓端BIoT解决方案市场10%以上的份额，是全球最大的安卓端BIoT解决方案提供商。 据披露，商米科技的服务覆盖全球200多个国家和地区，智能商业物联网设备的月活量达到600万台，应用程序下载量超2亿次。 业绩方面，随着产品结构不断优化，商米科技的盈利能力持续改善。2023年至2025年前三季度，商米科技营业收入分别为30.71亿元、34.56亿元和22.4亿元；年内利润分别为1.01亿元、1.81亿元和0.56亿元。 与此同时，商米科技综合毛利率由2023年的26.7%稳步提升至2024年的28.9%。2025年前三季度，毛利率进一步升至32.9%。 目前来看，销售智能设备业务为商米科技最大的收入支柱，其营收占比常年超过99%。2023年至2024年，该业务收入分别为30.08亿元、34.38亿元，2025年前三季度为22.18亿元。 与此同时，PaaS平台及定制服务收入呈现高速增长，从2024年前三季度的12.1百万元增至2025年同期的22.8百万元，增幅达87.7%。 ▎中专毕业生的三次创业，获蚂蚁、美团、小米三重加持 商...

Image source: The Motley Fool. Wednesday, April 29, 2026, at 5 p.m. ET Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst? Email pr@fool.com Continue reading

QCOM Stock Soars As AI Momentum And Buybacks Ignite Rally StocksToTrade

2025年度，新榜AI token使用量为1.5万亿。 4月30日，中国领先的内容资产运营商上海新榜信息技术股份有限公司（以下简称“新榜”）向港交所主板递交上市申请。招股书显示，新榜向企业客户提供基于AI的内容营销解决方案及内容管理服务，2025年收入达到人民币19.5亿元，毛利2.6亿元，净利6280万元。 新榜2014年起正式运营，由内容营销解决方案赋能企业客户构建和传播内容资产，由内容资产管理服务实现系统化沉淀、分析和与长效复用，让每一份内容都持续创造价值。 根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，按2025年的收入计，新榜是中国最大的内容管理服务供应商。2025年，新榜通过矩阵通、声量通、海汇等应用产品，为408家企业客户提供内容资产管理服务，实现跨平台社交媒体账号集中管理、内容资产多维分析、社交媒体聆听、营销效果深度洞察服务。截至2025年12月31日，新榜客户通过上述应用产品合共管理超过100万个社交媒体平台账号，从而构建精准、高效、数据驱动的内容管理体系。2025年度，新榜AI token使用量为1.5万亿。 其中，新榜智汇于2026年1月推出，专注于GEO专有解决方案，协助企业客户管理及提升其在生成式AI模型及聊天机器人平台（例如豆包、元宝、DeepSeek及KiMi）上的品牌知名度。新榜正通过包括与阿里巴巴夸克设立的合资企业等举措，为客户提供AI辅助的内容生产能力。 同时，按2025年内容营销解决方案产生的收入计，新榜是中国第二大综合内容营销解决方案供应商，且于2023年至2025年期间在五大供应商中增长最快，2025年收益同比增长超过23%。解决方案包括达人营销以及内容推广，涵盖策略规划、投放执行到效果优化的完整服务闭环，持续进行曝光、互动以及转化数据的追踪分析，以精准的方式帮助内容拓展传播范围，触达更广泛受众。新榜与主流社交媒体平台建立了长期合作关系，2025年与3.8万名内容创作者合作，执行约8.4万次内容投放，截至2025年，资源网络连接超过550万名内容创作者。 新榜的客户行业主要包括美容及个人护理、快速消费品、消费电子及电动汽车。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，预计至2030年，中国内容资产管理服务市场复合年增长率为41.1%，综合内容营销服务市场复合年增长率为16.1%。 新榜已在技术架构与产品体系的底层实现全面AI化驱动，构建由数据跨域整合、AI解析推...

Alex Cristi March Leading Indicator Index: -0.6% M/M vs. -0.2% consensus, according to data released by The Conference Board on Thursday. The print followed a 0.3% M/M increase in February. Coincident Economic Index: 115.2 svs. 115.2 in February. Lagging Economic Index: 120.4 vs. 120.0 prior. Developing… Check back for updates. More on the US Economy U.S. Q1 GDP rises 2.0%, less than expected in initial print; prices rise more Core PCE inflation cools as expected in March Inflation Alarms Starting To Ring In The Bond Market Inflation Nears The 'Red Zone,' Odds Of The Fed Hikes Rise

Alphabet's cloud growth and AI backlog impressed investors, while Meta shares fell after lifting capital expenditure plans to $145 billion.

Canada Packers Inc. ( CPKR:CA ) declares CAD 0.23/share quarterly dividend , in line with previous. Payable June 30; for shareholders of record June 9; ex-div June 9. See CPKR:CA Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth. More on Canada Packers Inc. Historical earnings data for Canada Packers Inc. Dividend scorecard for Canada Packers Inc. Financial information for Canada Packers Inc.

Japan Intervened In FX Market To Buy Yen With Brent surging to a new post war high overnight, rising as high as $125 on fear of an imminent resumption of hostilities in Iran, which dragged yields higher, and also pushed the USDJPY above 160 for the first time since late March, overnight Japan made clear - again - it wouldn't take it any more, with the usual round of jawboning. *KATAYAMA: WE ARE MONITORING FX MARKET WHILE YOU ARE ON HOLIDAY *KATAYAMA: WE ARE NEARING TIMING TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ON FX Then *MIMURA: WE ARE NEARING TIME TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ON FX *MIMURA: THIS IS MY FINAL WARNING BEFORE ACTION Then *JAPAN PM TAKAICHI HOLDS PHONE TALKS WITH IRAN PRESIDENT: KYODO JAPAN PM TAKAICHI: I HAVE WORKED TO ENSURE PASSAGE OF JAPANESE-RELATED VESSEL THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ" RTRS And while the market had grown used to constant jawboning by Japanese officials, this time Japan finally put its money where its mouth was, and with the USDJPY extending gains after all this verbal diarrhea, at precisely 4am ET, or just as Japan was closing (as we head into a long weekend, with most of Asia off tomorrow and Japan kicking off with golden week starting Monday to Wednesday 6th May), the USDJPY tumbled sharply, and then continued to slide for the next 4 hours, plunging as much as 500 pips to a session low of 155.57. The move which strengthened the yen by the most since 2023... ... immediately prompted speculation of intervention by Japan's authorities, especially since in recent weeks Japan had been jawboning not only against the yen but also oil prices, which mysteriously also tumbled from a multi year high. There were early signs that Japan was indeed involved, with some 57BN in USDJPY volumes this morning, far above normal average. Note, previous intervention volumes in 2022 and 2024, EBS volumes had gotten up to around 70BN (for 29apr24 and 21oct22). On Friday 23 January 2026 on US rate check day – EBS volumes got to around 50BN. And while normally we would have to wait days ...

国际海事组织海洋环境保护委员会第84届会议4月30日审议的相关文件显示，伊朗提请委员会注意，美国在对伊侵略背景下实行非法海上封锁、拦截及阻断措施，阻碍了正常海上交通，对海事安全和海洋环境保护构成“直接且可预见的危害”。 会议文件显示，伊朗在回应阿联酋提交的一份与霍尔木兹海峡相关提案时表示，美国和以色列实施的袭击与敌对行动，导致霍尔木兹海峡日趋军事化，并带来海洋污染、航行事故、污染应急能力中断以及生物多样性受损等重大可预见风险。 伊朗指出，美国和以色列的相关袭击已造成伊朗多艘船只沉没。军机、无人机、导弹及针对港口、海事和民用基础设施的军事行动等，可能引发或加剧油污泄漏、有毒有害物质排放、消防用水被污染、沉积物污染、海洋生物多样性被破坏等风险。 伊朗代表在会上发言时表示，伊朗提交相关文件，旨在确保委员会不仅关注上述风险的表象，更能认清造成当前局面的根本原因。(新华社)

Steve Eisman of "The Big Short" fame said he has little problem with the wider stock market at current levels, but he's finding opportunities to bet against select names, including credit-scoring firm Fair Isaac. "The Real Eisman Playbook" podcast host and former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager said the market environment looks strikingly similar to last year: resilient credit conditions, heavy spending tied to artificial intelligence and a bifurcated, or "K-shaped," economy where strength remains unevenly distributed. "We're literally back to where we were last year, the same exact narrative, unchanged. It's as if nothing happened in between," Eisman said Thursday on CNBC's " Squawk Box. " "I don't have a problem with the market right now. I really don't." Eisman said his portfolio remains tilted toward technology and some financial stocks, while avoiding more defensive corners of the market such as consumer staples and energy. FICO short Eisman said he is short FICO, the company best known for its widely used credit scores, arguing that its pricing strategy has alienated customers and opened the door to competitors. "I'll say this openly. I'm short FICO," he said. "FICO, very arrogantly, has raised prices about 500% over the last many, many years. It has ticked off literally everybody in the lending world, and even now, after they've cut prices." FICO 1D mountain Fair Isaac Thursday He pointed to VantageScore as an alternative provider that's gaining traction, particularly in mortgage underwriting. By his math, lenders could pay around $2,000 to FICO for every 100 mortgage applications, compared with roughly $99 using VantageScore. Shares of Fair Isaac fell 3.5% Thursday after Eisman revealed his short. The stock is down nearly 40% so far in 2026.

State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund D Acquires 23,282 Shares of Intel Corporation $INTC MarketBeat

格隆汇4月30日｜珀莱雅化妆品股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请书，联席保荐人为中金公司、瑞银集团。

Spin Master ( TOY:CA ) declares CAD 0.12/share quarterly dividend , in line with previous. Payable July 10; for shareholders of record June 26; ex-div June 26. See TOY:CA Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth. More on Spin Master Spin Master Corp. 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation Spin Master Corp. (TOY:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Historical earnings data for Spin Master Dividend scorecard for Spin Master Financial information for Spin Master

(RTTNews) - A report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed U.S. economic growth reaccelerated in the first quarter of 2026 but came in slightly below economist estimates.

环山集团股权整体挂牌价略高于市场估值，其中万科旗下六家公司所持有的99.41%股权对应价格为32.7亿元 【财新网】 迫于化债压力，万科集团（000002.SZ/02202.HK，下称“万科”）持续剥离与公司战略关联度不高的业务和资产。4月29日晚间，该公司发布公告称，拟在深圳联合产权交易所挂牌转让环山集团股份有限公司（下称“环山集团”）全部股权。 环山集团主营生猪养殖，由万科旗下六家公司持有约99.41%的股权；其余约0.59%股权由珠海环宇佳华投资合伙企业(有限合伙)持有。这家合伙企业是万科员工为跟投组建的平台公司。

Getty Images By James Smith, Developed Markets Economist, UK One month ago, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told us markets were getting ahead of themselves on rate hike pricing. That feels like the underlying message from the April decision, which keeps interest rates at 3.75%. But it’s also clear the Bank is inching closer to a rate hike in June. That’s narrowly now our base case. Like everyone else, the Bank is dealing with the uncertainty through scenarios. Its middle scenario B is largely premised on current market pricing. Oil quickly eases back below 100 USD/bbl, and natural gas stays roughly where we are now through most of this year before moving gradually lower. Crucially, that scenario generates virtually no second-round effects on inflation, the Bank thinks; the impact on wage growth is marginal. In that scenario, it seems like most officials are still edging towards keeping Bank Rate on hold this year – even if its model-based simulations, including its policy report, point to one, maybe two hikes, even with energy prices coming swiftly lower. Governor Bailey characterised the decision not to cut, which is what the Bank was likely to have done pre-war, as in effect a decision to tighten policy. The elephant in the room here is that the crisis in the Middle East is showing little sign of resolving. And the chances of us ending up in a less benign scenario are rising. Admittedly, the Bank’s more extreme scenario is indeed extreme. It assumes natural gas prices double – something that feels unlikely right now. And remember that natural gas prices are arguably more important for UK inflation – and the risk of second round effects – than oil. Still, our own base case is a little more aggressive on energy prices than the Bank’s middle scenario – and with every day that passes without the Strait of Hormuz reopening, the more likely it is that energy prices stay more elevated for longer. Our own UK inflation forecasts, peaking a touch above 4% this year,...