Listen to Odd Lots on Apple Podcasts Listen to Odd Lots on Spotify Watch Odd Lots on YouTube Subscribe to the newsletter The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the potential for long-running theoretical chokepoints to turn into reality, with dramatic results for both geopolitics and the global economy. But the hypothetical scenario that policymakers have arguably been losing the most ...
Listen to Odd Lots on Apple Podcasts Listen to Odd Lots on Spotify Watch Odd Lots on YouTube Subscribe to the newsletter The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the potential for long-running theoretical chokepoints to turn into reality, with dramatic results for both geopolitics and the global economy. But the hypothetical scenario that policymakers have arguably been losing the most sleep over for decades is the prospect of a major conflict between China and Taiwan. So how likely is it, and what would such a conflict actually look like? On this episode, we speak with Eyck Freymann, author of the new book, Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War With China , and a fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. We discuss Xi Jinping's strategy, whether Taiwan's \
Getty Images I won't mince words: I'm nervous about the S&P 500 teetering near all-time highs, despite tremendous macroeconomic uncertainty and unresolved geopolitical tensions. Most of these gains are concentrated in a small handful of semiconductor stocks, which are enjoying a sharp burst of data center orders that may be approaching a cyclical peak. Against this backdrop, my focus is on finding...
Getty Images I won't mince words: I'm nervous about the S&P 500 teetering near all-time highs, despite tremendous macroeconomic uncertainty and unresolved geopolitical tensions. Most of these gains are concentrated in a small handful of semiconductor stocks, which are enjoying a sharp burst of data center orders that may be approaching a cyclical peak. Against this backdrop, my focus is on finding "growth at a reasonable price" stocks that have uncorrelated risks to the broader market. Roku ( ROKU ) is one of these stocks. The number-one streaming device maker continues to enjoy fierce growth in subscription affiliate revenue and ads. Shares of Roku jumped 3% after reporting Q1 earnings, extending a ~10% run since the start of the year. In my view, this is the start of a broader rally in this stock. Data by YCharts I last wrote a "Buy" article on Roku in February, when the stock was trading in the mid-$80s. Since then, Roku has surged by more than 20%. These gains have been more than supported by fierce platform revenue growth, alongside consistent gross margin gains. And unlike many hardware makers, Roku's increased focus on subscription and advertising revenue is more than offsetting headwinds from rising memory costs. I'm reiterating my "buy" rating on Roku. Roku stands out primarily as a "growth at a reasonable price" stock. The company enjoys a number of demand tailwinds that are completely unrelated to the AI/capex boom, which I view to be more cyclical in nature (to me, semiconductor stocks' heady valuation multiples are deeply at risk once hyperscalers ramp down their capex spending, in which they pulled forward years of investment). Roku, on the other hand, enjoys more secular tailwinds. In April, the company launched Peacock on its streaming platform, following the launch of Apple TV in March. As a reminder, the company generates a large chunk of its revenue as affiliate fees: when a streamer signs up for a streaming service through their Roku TV, Roku ear...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the potential for long-running theoretical chokepoints to turn into reality, with dramatic results for both geopolitics and the global economy. But the hypothetical scenario that policymakers have arguably been losing the most sleep over for decades is the prospect of a major conflict between China and Taiwan. So how likely is it, and what would ...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the potential for long-running theoretical chokepoints to turn into reality, with dramatic results for both geopolitics and the global economy. But the hypothetical scenario that policymakers have arguably been losing the most sleep over for decades is the prospect of a major conflict between China and Taiwan. So how likely is it, and what would such a conflict actually look like? On this episode, we speak with Eyck Freymann, author of the new
The European Central Bank ’s decision to hold interest rate this week provides policymakers with more time to assess whether the Middle East crisis triggers prolonged inflation, according to Governing Council member Martin Kocher . Economic developments are still close to the ECB’s baseline scenario published in March, but the inflation outlook has deteriorated and prolonged inflation may be possi...
The European Central Bank ’s decision to hold interest rate this week provides policymakers with more time to assess whether the Middle East crisis triggers prolonged inflation, according to Governing Council member Martin Kocher . Economic developments are still close to the ECB’s baseline scenario published in March, but the inflation outlook has deteriorated and prolonged inflation may be possible, the Austrian National Bank governor said in a blog post published Friday. “It is still too early to see a broader rise in prices or second-round effects in the available data,” he said. “However, the longer energy prices remain high, the more likely these become.” Kocher’s remarks echo a message conveyed by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Thursday, who said rate setters debated but decided against a hike this week due to insufficient information, and that next month’s meeting would be the right time to assess the situation. ECB officials will likely raise rates at a meeting in June , unless there are positive developments on energy prices and ending the war, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Should the fighting persist, there’s only a very small chance a hike can be avoided, they said. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel affirmed that on Friday, saying the Governing Council would need “to respond in June if the outlook does not improve markedly.” Estonia’s Madis Muller was similarly outspoken , though his term ends before the June monetary-policy meeting. Kocher said the euro area was in a different situation than at the onset of an inflation spike in 2022 , following the Covid-19 crisis, as central banks have higher rates now and governments are providing less stimulus to support economies. “Given these differences, the Governing Council of the ECB assesses the risk of a similarly sharp surge in inflation as in 2022 to be low,” Kocher said in the blog post. “The Governing Council remains ready to act at any time and is prepared to adjust the monetary p...
⚽ Buildup to the weekend’s action across the leagues ⚽ Ten things to look out for | Fixtures | Standings | Mail Tom Morning everyone and welcome . We’re at that stage of the season where clubs are either on the beach or deep in a world of stress/pain/excitement, each casting envious glances at the other. A hugely consequential weekend looms, starting tonight with Leeds having another opportunity t...
⚽ Buildup to the weekend’s action across the leagues ⚽ Ten things to look out for | Fixtures | Standings | Mail Tom Morning everyone and welcome . We’re at that stage of the season where clubs are either on the beach or deep in a world of stress/pain/excitement, each casting envious glances at the other. A hugely consequential weekend looms, starting tonight with Leeds having another opportunity to distance themselves from the relegation rabble when they host managerless and relegated Burnley. By around 3pm tomorrow we’ll know the identity of one more of the clubs replacing the Clarets, with Ipswich, Millwall and Middlesbrough duking it out for second place in the Championship, while ups, downs and playoff places in the rest of the EFL will be sorted by teatime, when everyone can chill out watching Arsenal’s bid to keep their creaking title bid on the road when they face Fulham. There was plenty to chew on last night too . Nottingham Forest just about edged their all-English Europa League semi-final first leg against Aston Villa, but not without the inevitable VAR blow-up, Unai Emery fuming at the failure to punish Elliott Anderson for a dangerous tackle on Ollie Watkins. In the Conference League, Oliver Glasner’s chances of bowing out at Crystal Palace with a second trophy in two years were substantially enhanced in a 3-1 semi-final first leg win against Shakhtar Donetsk. The Europa League place denied them last year is now in sight. Continue reading...
Earnings Call Insights: Twilio (TWLO) Q1 2026 Management View “Twilio had a terrific Q1, accelerating revenue and gross profit to their highest growth rates in more than 3 years,” said (CEO & Director Khozema Shipchandler), adding, “We delivered over $1.4 billion in revenue, up 20% year-over-year on a reported basis... and $132 million of free cash flow.” (CEO & Director Shipchandler) highlighted ...
Earnings Call Insights: Twilio (TWLO) Q1 2026 Management View “Twilio had a terrific Q1, accelerating revenue and gross profit to their highest growth rates in more than 3 years,” said (CEO & Director Khozema Shipchandler), adding, “We delivered over $1.4 billion in revenue, up 20% year-over-year on a reported basis... and $132 million of free cash flow.” (CEO & Director Shipchandler) highlighted AI-driven demand trends, saying, “we continued to see unprecedented demand for voice, reimagined through the lens of AI,” and that customers “are relying on us to be a foundational infrastructure layer for the era of AI.” On product momentum, (CEO & Director Shipchandler) said, “Our voice channel revenue grew 20% year-over-year,” and added, “software add-ons such as Branded Calling and Conversational Intelligence both grew revenue more than 100% year-over-year.” He also pointed to messaging drivers: “Messaging revenue growth also accelerated in the quarter, aided by strong growth in WhatsApp and RCS. RCS volume more than doubled quarter-over-quarter.” On go-to-market, (CEO & Director Shipchandler) said, “our self-serve and ISV cohorts driving exceptional revenue growth again this quarter at 25% plus year-over-year,” and cited onboarding investments that “has driven higher conversion rates.” On upcoming product direction, (CEO & Director Shipchandler) previewed SIGNAL announcements: “we'll launch some of the most consequential innovations in our company's history, introducing new capabilities that orchestrate context-rich conversations with persistent memory across every channel for humans and AI agents.” Management changes included board refresh: “I also wanted to officially welcome Doug Robinson to Twilio's Board of Directors,” (CEO & Director Shipchandler) said. “Twilio had an outstanding Q1,” said (Chief Financial Officer Aidan Viggiano), adding, “We also generated record non-GAAP income from operations of $279 million. Free cash flow was $132 million,” and calling it “o...
Stocks looked set to extend their record-breaking rally on Friday after iPhone maker Apple became the latest company to beat Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings and revenue targets. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 added 0.1%. The market is set for a good start to May after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes posted their best months since 2020 in April.
Stocks looked set to extend their record-breaking rally on Friday after iPhone maker Apple became the latest company to beat Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings and revenue targets. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 added 0.1%. The market is set for a good start to May after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes posted their best months since 2020 in April.
Earnings Call Insights: Reddit (RDDT) Q1 2026 Management View “We’re excited to start the year off with a strong first quarter,” said (Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director Steven Huffman), highlighting “our seventh consecutive quarter with revenue growth over 60%,” “industry-leading gross margins over 90%,” “adjusted EBITDA margin of 40%,” and “record cash flow of more than $300 million,” alongsi...
Earnings Call Insights: Reddit (RDDT) Q1 2026 Management View “We’re excited to start the year off with a strong first quarter,” said (Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director Steven Huffman), highlighting “our seventh consecutive quarter with revenue growth over 60%,” “industry-leading gross margins over 90%,” “adjusted EBITDA margin of 40%,” and “record cash flow of more than $300 million,” alongside “capital expenditures remained low as $1 million.” (CEO Huffman) tied the ads story to intent on-platform, saying “around 40% of conversations on Reddit are commercial in nature,” and positioned data licensing/AI demand as a scarcity asset: “Reddit’s conversations are like oil for the modern Internet.” (CEO Huffman) set a specific U.S. DAU goal and framed it as a product execution agenda: “Our goal is to reach 100 million daily U.S. users,” adding, “one thing that has become clear is that product quality leads to growth,” with near-term focus including “broadening the top of funnel, improving new user retention and making Reddit faster across the board.” (Chief Operating Officer Jennifer Wong) emphasized performance advertising and automation, reporting “total revenue grew 69% year-over-year to $663 million,” “advertising revenue grew 74% year-over-year to $625 million,” and “performance-oriented revenue represents over 60% of total ad revenue.” (COO Wong) described early Reddit Max results: “On average, advertisers are seeing a 17% reduction in cost per action and 25% more conversion outcomes when running Max campaigns,” and said “about 50% of Max campaign advertisers” used “AI-powered creative features.” (Chief Financial Officer Andrew Vollero) anchored the quarter on profitability and cash generation: “Reddit’s Q1 47% free cash flow margin was a powerful proof point,” and “on a GAAP basis, EPS reached triple digits in Q1 at $1.01 a share.” Outlook (CFO Vollero) guided Q2 2026 revenue to “$715 million to $725 million,” and said the range “takes into account the lapping...
Alvarog1970/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Towercos have increased their presence at Mobile World Congress in 2026, held March 2–5, reflecting their growing relevance as key infrastructure providers for the industry. Speaking at the conference in Barcelona, Spain, TOTEM CEO Emmanuel Rochas highlighted that towerco ownership of global towers grew from 25% in 2014 to 75% today, as telcos around t...
Alvarog1970/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Towercos have increased their presence at Mobile World Congress in 2026, held March 2–5, reflecting their growing relevance as key infrastructure providers for the industry. Speaking at the conference in Barcelona, Spain, TOTEM CEO Emmanuel Rochas highlighted that towerco ownership of global towers grew from 25% in 2014 to 75% today, as telcos around the world have sought to spin off infrastructure assets such as fiber networks and mobile towers to reduce debt, improve monetization and attract investment partners. TOTEM is one such company, spun off by French group Orange in 2021 to operate the telco's 27,000 towers in France and Spain. Although TOTEM remains under the control of its parent company, the carve-out allows the company to operate as an independent wholesale infrastructure provider while maintaining a guaranteed revenue stream from its anchor tenants, Orange's operations in France and Spain, which are the largest mobile carriers in their respective markets. Other speakers at the MWC's Tower Summit included representatives from multiple independent towercos, such as European market leaders Cellnex Telecom ( CLNXF ) and Vantage Towers ( VTWRF ) (itself a spinoff owned by Vodafone Group ( VOD )), Southeast Asia's EdgePoint Infrastructure, MEA's Helios Towers ( HTWSF ) and TAWAL, Americas towercos Phoenix Tower International and SBA Communications ( SBAC ), as well as Telenor ( TELNF )( TELNY ) spinoff Telenor Towers, which operates in the Nordics. In common across regions were the challenges these companies face in evolving their relationships with mobile network operators (MNOs) beyond that of landlord and tenant. Increasing consolidation among MNOs has also reduced the number of core customers available for towercos, as mobile market players in several countries have dropped to three, and in some cases even two. Recent examples include the mergers of Vodafone and Three in the UK, Telecom Argentina ( TEO ) and ...
Saudi Arabia will withdraw its multi-billion dollar backing of LIV Golf, but what does this mean for the country's other sporting investments? Dan Roan takes a closer look.
Saudi Arabia will withdraw its multi-billion dollar backing of LIV Golf, but what does this mean for the country's other sporting investments? Dan Roan takes a closer look.