Alones Creative Barclays Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha said Friday he has downgraded his outlook on risk assets to neutral, citing accelerating declines in global oil ( USO ) ( BNO ) inventories as the cushion that supported his earlier bullish stance erodes. In a Bloomberg interview, Rajadhyaksha explained that the initial three-week buffer following the Strait of Hormuz disruptio...
Alones Creative Barclays Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha said Friday he has downgraded his outlook on risk assets to neutral, citing accelerating declines in global oil ( USO ) ( BNO ) inventories as the cushion that supported his earlier bullish stance erodes. In a Bloomberg interview, Rajadhyaksha explained that the initial three-week buffer following the Strait of Hormuz disruption has been exhausted. Global inventories are now drawing down at 80M to 90M barrels per week, with outages running at 10M to 12M barrels daily. “The first three weeks, you still had tankers that had left Hormuz that were landing on shores,” Rajadhyaksha said. “That cushion is gone.” The strategist had previously maintained a bullish stance, arguing that markets underestimated the buffers held by major economies. He pointed to China’s ( MCHI ) 1.2B barrels in strategic reserves and the U.S.'s ( SPY ) status as an energy superpower, along with roughly 700M barrels of inventory built up last year. Despite his more cautious view, Rajadhyaksha stopped short of recommending outright shorts on risk assets, noting that strong corporate earnings continue to provide support. He favors the “Mag Six”—the major technology companies excluding Tesla ( TSLA )—and two-year Treasuries ( SHY ) ( US2Y ), while warning investors away from long-duration bonds ( ZROZ ) ( US30Y ) globally. More on the Markets Dow Jones Nears 50,000 - Will Stock Market Bulls Ever Be Defeated? Inflation In The Entire U.S. Economy Is Rocking And Rolling, And It's Not Just Energy 3 Market Predictions For May Inflation approval slump adds policy pressure: BofA Nasdaq crosses 25K for first time as tech stocks power gains
The housing market has been nearly frozen since the pandemic. A combination of high mortgage rates and the "lock-in effect" from low rates during the pandemic has kept existing home sales at unusually low levels and has pushed up home prices as there's not enough inventory for prospective buyers. As the chart below shows, existing home sales have been hovering around an average annual rate of 4 mi...
The housing market has been nearly frozen since the pandemic. A combination of high mortgage rates and the "lock-in effect" from low rates during the pandemic has kept existing home sales at unusually low levels and has pushed up home prices as there's not enough inventory for prospective buyers. As the chart below shows, existing home sales have been hovering around an average annual rate of 4 million, well below the 5.5 million they were at before the pandemic. Continue reading
Earnings Call Insights: Federated Hermes (FHI) Q1 2026 Management view "We ended Q1 with record assets under management of $907 billion, led by gains in Equity and Money Market strategies," said (President, CEO & Chairman John Donahue), while also noting Equity assets ended "at a record high of $101 billion" and Money Market assets ended at "$685 billion." "Gross Equity sales reached a record high...
Earnings Call Insights: Federated Hermes (FHI) Q1 2026 Management view "We ended Q1 with record assets under management of $907 billion, led by gains in Equity and Money Market strategies," said (President, CEO & Chairman John Donahue), while also noting Equity assets ended "at a record high of $101 billion" and Money Market assets ended at "$685 billion." "Gross Equity sales reached a record high of $9.1 billion in Q1," (President, CEO & Chairman Donahue) said, adding that "MDT Equity and Market-Neutral strategies together had a record $5.8 billion of gross sales and over $3.5 billion in net sales in Q1." (President, CEO & Chairman Donahue) highlighted a near-term funding pipeline and mandate dynamics, saying the firm began Q2 with "about $1.1 billion in net institutional mandates yet to fund" and that "Equity strategies are expected to have net redemptions of about $1.4 billion" driven by "net Global Equity expected redemptions of $3 billion" tied to a client decision "to internalize the management of these assets" that was "not driven by performance." On Money Markets, (President, CEO & Chairman Donahue) said the firm’s estimate of mutual fund market share "was about 6.9% at the end of Q1, down from 7.0% at the end of 2025," while also framing tokenization as operational modernization: "We are focused on this area as an infrastructure evolution, not a speculative asset class." He described an "upcoming launch of our Money Market management digital treasury fund" designed to support "both traditional and on-chain distribution" and referenced participation in a "collaborative initiative between BNY and Goldman Sachs" involving "mirrored tokenization of Money Market fund shares." "For Q1 compared to the prior quarter, total revenue decreased $3.9 million, or 1%," said (VP, Treasurer, CFO & Director Thomas Donahue), citing "$10.5 million of lower revenue" from fewer days and noting Q4 included "$8.2 million of Real Estate development fees." He also said Q1 operating ...
Earnings Call Insights: UMH Properties (UMH) Q1 2026 Management View Samuel Landy (President, CEO & Director) said the quarter produced “solid operational results,” while earnings were “impacted by increased interest rates and increased investment in rental units and expansion lots, which are not yet occupied,” alongside “seasonal headwinds.” He reported operational improvement, including occupanc...
Earnings Call Insights: UMH Properties (UMH) Q1 2026 Management View Samuel Landy (President, CEO & Director) said the quarter produced “solid operational results,” while earnings were “impacted by increased interest rates and increased investment in rental units and expansion lots, which are not yet occupied,” alongside “seasonal headwinds.” He reported operational improvement, including occupancy growth and “same-property NOI grew by 7%,” and said, “As we continue to fill rental homes and generate increased sales profits, our earnings should increase in the quarters to come.” Samuel Landy (President, CEO & Director) tightened full-year guidance and framed the drivers as occupancy, rentals, and developed sites becoming productive. He said, “We are tightening our NFFO guidance range to $0.98 to $1.04 per share,” and added, “We are well positioned to fill 800 or more new rental homes this year.” Anna Chew (Executive VP, CFO, Treasurer & Director) said, “Normalized FFO, which excludes amortization and nonrecurring items, was $19.4 million or $0.23 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2026 compared to $18.8 million or $0.23 per diluted share for 2025,” and added, “Rental and related income for the quarter was $59.5 million compared to $54.6 million a year ago.” Outlook Samuel Landy (President, CEO & Director) said, “We are tightening our NFFO guidance range to $0.98 to $1.04 per share or $1.01 per share at the midpoint compared to our previous guidance of $0.97 to $1.05 per share,” and added that he remained “confident in our ability to deliver full year normalized FFO per share growth in the mid-single-digit range.” Management’s 2026 operational priorities included adding rentals and bringing expansion lots online; Samuel Landy (President, CEO & Director) said the company planned to “develop 300 or more sites in 2026” and highlighted “$45 million invested in 600 vacant, well-located expansion sites” that “have been paid for.” The provided analysts estimates data...
Robert Way In its quarterly results, Roblox ( RBLX ) acknowledged that increased safety protocols for better age verification have added an extra layer of friction to chat engagement, prompting the company to lower its full-year revenue guidance to reflect the negative impact on growth. In response, investors dumped the stock, driving RBLX down as much as 30% in Thursday’s after-hours trading. Sha...
Robert Way In its quarterly results, Roblox ( RBLX ) acknowledged that increased safety protocols for better age verification have added an extra layer of friction to chat engagement, prompting the company to lower its full-year revenue guidance to reflect the negative impact on growth. In response, investors dumped the stock, driving RBLX down as much as 30% in Thursday’s after-hours trading. Shares are heading into Friday's close with a new 52-week low. Faced with parental complaints and possible government sanctions over the potential for the exploitation of children on the platform, Roblox ( RBLX ) increased its age verification controls in January with AI-powered facial age estimation software and behavioral verification measures. So, while the company can be applauded for the increased screening, this has resulted in restricted communication from non-age-checked users, diluted communication from age-checked users, and slower new user acquisition. All of which should make parents happy but will dent user engagement. “We believe the strategic upside of everything we're doing is significant and the right thing to do for the long-term health of the platform," Roblox CEO David Baszucki said on the earnings call with analysts Thursday, admitting that there has been a reduction in app store ratings, and this may be contributing to a reduction in organic sign-ups "that typically flow from app stores." But despite assurances from Baszucki that the protocols are for the better in the long term, the revised outlook rattled investors and drove shares sharply lower on Friday. “The company's guidance reset confirms that its safety and discovery changes are creating larger-than-expected pressure on engagement and growth,” Raymond James analyst Andrew Marok said, downgrading Roblox to Market Perform from Outperform as headwinds are expected to persist for the near term. BTIG’s Clark Lampen and Joseph Spiezio also delivered Roblox ( RBLX ) a downgrade to Neutral from Buy on th...
asbe/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis Since my last coverage , SoFi Technologies, Inc. ( SOFI ) stock has been significantly down after reaching an all-time high. The main reason for the recent price dive is not the company’s pure performance, but investors’ concerns about macroeconomic conditions and interest rates, which could have a direct impact on its performance. In this article, I’...
asbe/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis Since my last coverage , SoFi Technologies, Inc. ( SOFI ) stock has been significantly down after reaching an all-time high. The main reason for the recent price dive is not the company’s pure performance, but investors’ concerns about macroeconomic conditions and interest rates, which could have a direct impact on its performance. In this article, I’m trying to assess why its Technology Platform segment reported a -27% YoY revenue slowdown. Overall, the company continues to achieve impressive organic growth and has already shifted to strong profitability, along with continuously diversifying its revenue streams and improving its cross-selling pipeline. Why Technology Platform Segment Was Down 27% YoY? After the Q1 ’26 earnings release, the company’s EPS was in line with estimates. This inline result, along with a 27% revenue decrease in the Technology Platform, led to the stock price dive. SOFI noted : The Technology Platform segment delivered net revenue of $75 million, which was negatively impacted by the loss of a previously discussed large customer. Q1’26 Presentation During my research, I found that Chime Financial ( CHYM ) stopped using SOFI’s Galileo for transaction processes in 2025. That’s the main reason the Tech segment dropped; however, this exit came gradually , starting in 2024, when Chime began using its ChimeCore procession system for all credit card transactions. Chime Q4’25 Report CHYM made it clear that its exit from Galileo was due to its decision to handle payment processing internally rather than using third-party solutions. For this reason, SoFi received an $18M termination fee in March 2026 from CHYM. As already mentioned in my previous article, SOFI’s business model is transforming into fee-based generated revenue, which decreases the interest and credit risks. In Q1, due to the exit of CHYM, SoFi’s fees dropped from 43% of total revenue to 36% but were up by 23% from the prior year to $387M, r...