Oaktree Capital Management Co-Chief Executive Officer Armen Panossian warned that markets have been too quick to shrug off a slew of fundamental issues, which are prompting his firm to preserve cash for when a correction comes. Panossian noted that “tremendous” post-pandemic liquidity, a desire to stay invested and strong backward-looking corporate performance have encouraged investors to look thr...
Oaktree Capital Management Co-Chief Executive Officer Armen Panossian warned that markets have been too quick to shrug off a slew of fundamental issues, which are prompting his firm to preserve cash for when a correction comes. Panossian noted that “tremendous” post-pandemic liquidity, a desire to stay invested and strong backward-looking corporate performance have encouraged investors to look through the underlying economic data. This resilience is further bolstered by a prevailing market belief that President Donald Trump won’t do anything to permanently derail the economy, he said. “When you overlay the Iran war, when you overlay some of the software pain that we would expect to see over the course of the next couple of years, it’s a little bit of a head scratcher as to why the markets are as robust as they are,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg TV from the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills. Oaktree is owned by Brookfield, which agreed to acquire the remaining parts of the distressed-debt specialist it didn’t already own late last year. The pair are “building those pipes” between Oaktree’s credit capabilities and Brookfield’s asset management capabilities to find global opportunities, Panossian said. Oaktree is currently in preparation mode, with Panossian noting there aren’t many “fat pitches” or discounted debt or equity assets that make sense to buy “in droves.” The company is looking for good companies with bad balance sheets, but is also reserving as much dry powder as it can, he added. Regarding the recent wave of redemptions at business development companies amid software sector and valuation fears, Panossian said he was surprised that the banks hadn’t “tightened the screws” more on their lending to the private credit vehicles. “There certainly has been some tightening but not as much as I would have thought,” he said.
Super Micro Computer ( SMCI ) is set to announce third-quarter earnings on Tuesday amid intensifying legal and regulatory risks, including employee indictments and shareholder class actions. Wall Street expects the San Jose, Calif.-based company to post EPS of $0.62 on revenue of $12.45B. The company, during its Q2 earnings call, guided for Q3 net sales of at least $12.3B and full-year 2026 revenu...
Super Micro Computer ( SMCI ) is set to announce third-quarter earnings on Tuesday amid intensifying legal and regulatory risks, including employee indictments and shareholder class actions. Wall Street expects the San Jose, Calif.-based company to post EPS of $0.62 on revenue of $12.45B. The company, during its Q2 earnings call, guided for Q3 net sales of at least $12.3B and full-year 2026 revenue of at least $40B. It expects capital expenditure for Q3 to be in the range of $70M to $90M. However, the artificial intelligence server company is facing headwinds following an independent investigation into two former employees and a contractor who are alleged to have illegally shipped Nvidia ( NVDA )-powered servers to China, as well as shareholder class actions. Additionally, last month, the company lost a significant contract with Oracle ( ORCL ), according to a BlueFin Research report. The report, which could not be independently verified by Seeking Alpha, said that Oracle had cancelled between 300 and 400 racks from Super Micro, at a cost of $3.5M per rack, totaling between $1.1B and $1.4B. Investors will watch for the company’s commentary on the investigation into smuggling allegations and their long-term ramifications. Wedbush maintained its Neutral rating, with a price target of $42. The brokerage firm, in its research report, stated that its supply chain checks have been relatively steady, suggesting the company's FY26 sales plan might be unaffected. However, Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson warned about risks that large SMCI customers might shift business or use SMCI's struggles for leverage with future orders. Additionally, margins for large deals would likely face further pressure across all suppliers as NVDA is taking additional control over designs and sourcing of components. Seeking Alpha analysts , Wall Street analysts , and Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating are cautious, rating SMCI a Hold. The artificial intelligence server company’s shares have slipped over 3% y...
Getty Images Parabolic. The S&P 500 index ( SP500 ) rose 10.4% in April, its best month since November 2020, while the Nasdaq ( NDX ) gained 15.3%, its strongest month since April 2020. Leading the way was an increasingly important sector of the market, semiconductor stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 38.4% in April, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF ( SOXX ) rose 40.4%, its largest month...
Getty Images Parabolic. The S&P 500 index ( SP500 ) rose 10.4% in April, its best month since November 2020, while the Nasdaq ( NDX ) gained 15.3%, its strongest month since April 2020. Leading the way was an increasingly important sector of the market, semiconductor stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 38.4% in April, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF ( SOXX ) rose 40.4%, its largest monthly return in the fund’s 25-year history. As AI research labs and cloud computing hyperscalers fiercely compete for capacity, semiconductor companies are enjoying a demand tailwind that shows little sign of abating at least through 2027 ( Article ). Earnings Growth. For the preponderance of stocks, over time the value of the underlying business is a direct function of the earnings that it generates for its shareholders over time - nothing more, nothing less. Therefore, earnings growth is the key ingredient that keeps stock prices going ever higher - growing earnings leads to growing company values. This quarter, earnings growth has been rather strong. As of FactSet’s May 1 update , with 63% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q1 results, 84% had beaten EPS estimates and, collectively, are on pace to grow earnings by over 27% versus Q1 2025. This extraordinary result helps explain the parabolic move in stock prices in April. Valuation. After a double-digit surge in stock prices in April, we must stay mindful of market valuations. How much you pay for the current earnings and future earnings of a business is critical for investment success. Overpay for an amazing business with strong earnings growth and your return on investment is likely to be disappointing. At an estimated 28x our estimate for through-the-business-cycle earnings, the stock market ise certainly not cheap. A cautionary tale. Amazon ( AMZN ) is often cited as an expensive for a reason - high-quality stock - but for those investors that ignored logic and bought it in April of 2021 at a P/E over 50x. Five years ...
Getty Images Parabolic. The S&P 500 index ( SP500 ) rose 10.4% in April, its best month since November 2020, while the Nasdaq ( NDX ) gained 15.3%, its strongest month since April 2020. Leading the way was an increasingly important sector of the market, semiconductor stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 38.4% in April, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF ( SOXX ) rose 40.4%, its largest month...
Getty Images Parabolic. The S&P 500 index ( SP500 ) rose 10.4% in April, its best month since November 2020, while the Nasdaq ( NDX ) gained 15.3%, its strongest month since April 2020. Leading the way was an increasingly important sector of the market, semiconductor stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 38.4% in April, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF ( SOXX ) rose 40.4%, its largest monthly return in the fund’s 25-year history. As AI research labs and cloud computing hyperscalers fiercely compete for capacity, semiconductor companies are enjoying a demand tailwind that shows little sign of abating at least through 2027 ( Article ). Earnings Growth. For the preponderance of stocks, over time the value of the underlying business is a direct function of the earnings that it generates for its shareholders over time - nothing more, nothing less. Therefore, earnings growth is the key ingredient that keeps stock prices going ever higher - growing earnings leads to growing company values. This quarter, earnings growth has been rather strong. As of FactSet’s May 1 update , with 63% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q1 results, 84% had beaten EPS estimates and, collectively, are on pace to grow earnings by over 27% versus Q1 2025. This extraordinary result helps explain the parabolic move in stock prices in April. Valuation. After a double-digit surge in stock prices in April, we must stay mindful of market valuations. How much you pay for the current earnings and future earnings of a business is critical for investment success. Overpay for an amazing business with strong earnings growth and your return on investment is likely to be disappointing. At an estimated 28x our estimate for through-the-business-cycle earnings, the stock market ise certainly not cheap. A cautionary tale. Amazon ( AMZN ) is often cited as an expensive for a reason - high-quality stock - but for those investors that ignored logic and bought it in April of 2021 at a P/E over 50x. Five years ...
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is the stock everyone wants to talk about right now, riding a tidy turnaround narrative and a 30.01% one-year gain that has rekindled the old American auto trade. But here is what you should actually be watching. Forget Ford. The better trade right now wears a hard hat and digs copper ... Forget Ford: Buy This Stock Instead as Oil Prices Soar Worldwide
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is the stock everyone wants to talk about right now, riding a tidy turnaround narrative and a 30.01% one-year gain that has rekindled the old American auto trade. But here is what you should actually be watching. Forget Ford. The better trade right now wears a hard hat and digs copper ... Forget Ford: Buy This Stock Instead as Oil Prices Soar Worldwide
utah778/iStock via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from Polen Focus Growth Portfolio Q1 2026 Commentary. Portfolio Performance & Attribution In Q1 2026, the Portfolio returned -17.27% (net of fees) compared to -9.78% for the Index. Top relative contributors to the Portfolio's performance included Starbucks ( SBUX ) , Tesla ( TSLA ) (not owned), and Microsoft ( MSFT ) (underweight)...
utah778/iStock via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from Polen Focus Growth Portfolio Q1 2026 Commentary. Portfolio Performance & Attribution In Q1 2026, the Portfolio returned -17.27% (net of fees) compared to -9.78% for the Index. Top relative contributors to the Portfolio's performance included Starbucks ( SBUX ) , Tesla ( TSLA ) (not owned), and Microsoft ( MSFT ) (underweight). The largest relative detractors in the quarter were CoStar Group ( CSGP ) , Intuit ( INTU ) , and Shopify ( SHOP ) . Starbucks was the top performing absolute and relative contributor in Q1 amid positive signs that CEO Brian Nicol's multi-year turnaround strategy is beginning to bear fruit. Comparable store sales have ticked up, and the company is seeing improved results from stores that have undergone a revamp as part of the overall turnaround strategy. Our confidence in the new management team and their ability to execute a multi-pronged, sensible and achievable plan was a primary reason for reacquiring the company last year, in addition to the non-cyclical characteristics that the company possess which were on display amidst the volatility so far this year. CoStar Group has come under pressure from a combination of the negative AI narrative on software as well as its large investment in its Homes.com business that has driven company margins much lower than normal. We believe CoStar has deep domain expertise and data in commercial and residential real estate that is not replicable by large language models scraping the internet. And while we have some concern about the level of spend on Homes.com , we acknowledge that most of that capital has already been allocated and the revenue and profit expectations going forward from here look far better. In fact, we expect CoStar to be one of, if not the fastest growing company in the Portfolio over the next 3 to 5 years based on earnings per share. We added to our position here during the quarter (highlighted below). Portfolio Ac...
Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Super Micro Computer ( SMCI ) has seen a relatively strong period since I last rated it a sell back in late March , thanks to the overall rise in the tech sector. I want to dive into what I’m expecting in the upcoming quarter and why I’m still skeptical of the firm’s prospects. Current Dynamics First, I’ll just quickly go through the recent g...
Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Super Micro Computer ( SMCI ) has seen a relatively strong period since I last rated it a sell back in late March , thanks to the overall rise in the tech sector. I want to dive into what I’m expecting in the upcoming quarter and why I’m still skeptical of the firm’s prospects. Current Dynamics First, I’ll just quickly go through the recent government developments. My last analysis on Super Micro shed a light on the past governance issue, and the board has now decided to initiate an independent investigation through the most senior audit and assurance experts. The board also retained Munger, Tolles & Olson , a law firm with a half-century of experience in high-stakes corporate probes. It is an evolving situation, so I will not dwell longer on this, but it remains a critical overhang on the stock price. The following blow to the operation was even more critical in my mind, and the stock price does not reflect it. See, Oracle ( ORCL ) might have just canceled a massive contract for AI server infrastructure , a move that suggests the governance discount is now effectively eroding the company’s order book. Independent research from Bluefin Research has indicated that Oracle canceled plans to purchase between 300 and 400 high-performance AI server racks from SMCI, which carry an estimated price tag of $3.5MM per unit, thus representing a revenue headwind of up to $1.4B. It is important to note that Seeking Alpha could not independently verify this. That’s a signal of shifting vendor priorities among the big four hyperscalers. Oracle’s decision is apparently directly linked to the compliance risks and reputational damage linked with the Liaw indictment. So, even in the hyper-competitive race to build out cloud infrastructure, Oracle, which has a massive $553B in remaining performance obligations , cannot afford lead-time disruptions or regulatory entanglements that could halt the deployment of AI clusters. Upcoming q...