spawns/iStock via Getty Images By Elior Manier Oil took center stage once again in this week's volatile action. Rising 37% since last Friday, crude is now at concerning levels, even outperforming the January 2022 Ukraine war weekly performance, reaching $92.68 this week - a reminder that the commodity was trading near $55 just about two months ago. The third ingredient in a daily toxic fundamental...
spawns/iStock via Getty Images By Elior Manier Oil took center stage once again in this week's volatile action. Rising 37% since last Friday, crude is now at concerning levels, even outperforming the January 2022 Ukraine war weekly performance, reaching $92.68 this week - a reminder that the commodity was trading near $55 just about two months ago. The third ingredient in a daily toxic fundamental cocktail, black gold , is contributing to elevated inflation expectations. Although its closure isn't official, as during the 1970s, the Strait of Hormuz is subject to de facto restrictions, and virtually no ships have managed to cross it. Strait of Hormuz Sea Traffic – No one is crossing! Only nine ships have traversed the Strait of Hormuz this week – a major concern, particularly in Asia, where 90% of Middle Eastern oil passes through. Maritime insurance companies have strictly restricted, and in some cases banned, all types of passage, with premiums rising to historic highs. A striking example of the damage done is seen in Singaporean jet fuel prices, which have risen 140% since February 27. Singaporean Jet Fuel Prices – 1-Month prices (from March 5) With Iran adding further fuel to the fire (pun intended – even if this is nothing to joke about) by targeting Bahrain and other Gulf countries, the situation is certainly escalating. Qatar even warned of the possibility of seeing $150/barrel prices if the de facto closure sustains. To ease some price pressures, the US just launched a $20B reinsurance facility , which was met with a mildly headline-easing daily rise towards the close. US and Israeli strikes have also managed to destroy around 1,300 ballistic missile and drone launchers, leading to a now much more restricted number of attacks from the Islamic regime. This weekend will be very important towards incoming expectations, a week after the beginning of operations. As traders prepare to end another crazy week, let's explore a few key charts for WTI (US) oil to prepar...
Peter Cade/DigitalVision via Getty Images In early February, Peloton Interactive, Inc. ( PTON ) reported Q2 earnings , and this stock has slid since. Data by YCharts Q2 Recap In the quarter, PTON reported top-line revenue of $657M, a decrease of $17M, or 3% y/y. Gross margin improved in the quarter, landing at 50.5%, an increase of 3.20% y/y. Adjusted EBITDA was $81M, coming in 23% higher on a yea...
Peter Cade/DigitalVision via Getty Images In early February, Peloton Interactive, Inc. ( PTON ) reported Q2 earnings , and this stock has slid since. Data by YCharts Q2 Recap In the quarter, PTON reported top-line revenue of $657M, a decrease of $17M, or 3% y/y. Gross margin improved in the quarter, landing at 50.5%, an increase of 3.20% y/y. Adjusted EBITDA was $81M, coming in 23% higher on a year-over-year basis. GAAP net loss was $39M, and free cash flow was $72M. Additionally, in the quarter, Peloton announced that (i) its net debt decreased 52% y/y, and (ii) their integrated commercial business unit introduced the Peloton Pro Series (Peloton commercial equipment), and this business unit achieved double-digit y/y growth. The most negative from the quarter was that ending paid connected fitness subscriptions continued to fall--with 2.66M reported (a decrease of 214K, or 7%, on a y/y basis). I think that continued fall of members was the catalyst for the sell-off post-earnings release. Wall Street now views this as a cigar butt business that is shrinking over time. Peloton gave relatively upbeat guidance for FY 2026, pasted below, but despite that, Mr. Market is not believing this story, and the stock is trading at a very depressed level. Full Year FY26 Outlook Total Revenue outlook of $2.40 billion to $2.44 billion, representing a decrease of $71 million, or 3%, year-over-year at the midpoint and a decrease to our outlook provided last quarter. Total Gross Margin outlook of approximately 53.0%, reflecting an increase of 210 bps year-over-year and a 100 bps increase to our outlook provided last quarter. Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $450 million to $500 million, representing an increase of $71 million, or 18%, year-over-year at the midpoint and an increase of $25 million to our outlook provided last quarter. Free Cash Flow minimum target of $275 million, an increase of $25 million from our minimum target provided last quarter. Churn in the last quarter was up more th...
piranka/E+ via Getty Images When ChatGPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three years since, AI has taken on an outsized role not just in markets but also in our lives. For much of the time, the AI story has been told by its advocates and its salespeople, and the companies in the AI ecosystem have benefited. Not surprisingly, given that its narrators ben...
piranka/E+ via Getty Images When ChatGPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three years since, AI has taken on an outsized role not just in markets but also in our lives. For much of the time, the AI story has been told by its advocates and its salespeople, and the companies in the AI ecosystem have benefited. Not surprisingly, given that its narrators benefit from this growth, that story has emphasized the positive, with dazzling AI use cases and optimistic extrapolation of the productivity gains from its adoption. In the last few months, we have seen cracks emerge in the AI story, with investors wondering when, and in what form, the immense investments in AI architecture will pay off, and how, if they pay off, the businesses that they disrupt will fare. That disquiet has played out as negative market reactions to new AI investments at Meta and Amazon, a markdown in software company market capitalizations, and in a sell-off last week in response, at least partially, to an AI scenario assessment from Citrini Research, a publisher of macro and stock research. Given that I know very little about the technology of AI and that my macroeconomic know-how is pedestrian, my intent in this post is less about promoting my favored AI scenario and more about providing a framework for you to develop your own. The Citrini AI Assessment - Report and Responses The Citrini AI assessment came out on February 22, 2026, and it starts with a preface stating that it is presenting a scenario, not a prediction. I do have issues with that opening, but I will come to them later, but the report itself laid out a story for AI that unfolds with a dark end game for the economy, where, by June 30, 2028, the AI disruption has unsettled businesses and displaced workers, with unemployment rates rising above 10% and the market down almost 40% in response. There have been other AI doomsayers, but many of those doomsday scenarios are built around the storyline ...
What happened According to a February 17, 2026 SEC filing, Disciplined Growth Investors reduced its stake in InterDigital (IDCC 1.74%) by 181,788 shares. The fund’s position at quarter-end totaled 609,153 shares, valued at $193.94 million. What else to know This Sell reduced InterDigital’s weight to 3.71% of 13F AUM, down from 4.947% in the prior quarter Top holdings after the filing: NASDAQ:SMCI:...
What happened According to a February 17, 2026 SEC filing, Disciplined Growth Investors reduced its stake in InterDigital (IDCC 1.74%) by 181,788 shares. The fund’s position at quarter-end totaled 609,153 shares, valued at $193.94 million. What else to know This Sell reduced InterDigital’s weight to 3.71% of 13F AUM, down from 4.947% in the prior quarter Top holdings after the filing: NASDAQ:SMCI: $282.09 million (5.4% of AUM) NASDAQ:EXE: $281.40 million (5.4% of AUM) As of February 17, 2026, shares of InterDigital were priced at $366.42, up 70.3% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 by 60.81 percentage points Company/Etf overview Metric Value Market capitalization $9.19 billion Revenue (TTM) $834.01 million Net income (TTM) $406.64 million Price (as of market close 2/17/26) $366.42 Company/Etf snapshot InterDigital, Inc. is a leading innovator in wireless and video technology.The company develops and licenses advanced wireless technologies, including patented solutions for 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, video coding, and IoT devices. The company’s strategy centers on research and development, enabling it to monetize intellectual property through licensing agreements with major industry players. Its focus on next-generation wireless standards and diversified applications positions InterDigital as a key enabler of connectivity and digital transformation worldwide. InterDigital, Inc. holds a portfolio of approximately 27,500 patents and patent applications related to wireless communications and video coding. It serves global technology companies in the wireless communications, consumer electronics, and infrastructure markets. What this transaction means for investors InterDigital occupies a specialized segment of the technology industry focused on patent licensing rather than hardware production. The company develops wireless technologies, contributes them to global communication standards, and subsequently licenses these patents to device manufacturers whose products depen...
The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Friday that his government was considering lifting sanctions on more Russian oil, a day after it temporarily authorised India to buy from Moscow as global oil prices surged. The US-Israel war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks across the Gulf region have upended the world’s energy and transport sectors, virtually halting activity in the strai...
The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Friday that his government was considering lifting sanctions on more Russian oil, a day after it temporarily authorised India to buy from Moscow as global oil prices surged. The US-Israel war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks across the Gulf region have upended the world’s energy and transport sectors, virtually halting activity in the strait of Hormuz. The price of crude oil soared 8.5% on Friday and was up nearly 30% for the week after the US president, Donald Trump, said that only the “unconditional surrender” of Iran would end the Middle East war. “We may unsanction other Russian oil,” Bessent told Fox Business on Friday. “There are hundreds of millions of barrels of sanctioned crude on the water. And in essence, by unsanctioning them, Treasury can create a supply.” Washington has insisted that the new measures are not aimed at easing restrictions on Moscow, imposed over its conduct in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, but instead only affect supplies already in transit. “We’re going to keep a cadence of announcing measures to bring relief to the market during this conflict,” Bessent said, with high oil prices a pain point both domestically and for international markets. Kremlin economic adviser Kirill Dmitriev said he was discussing the issue with the United States, posting on X that “Western sanctions have proven detrimental to the world economy”. On Thursday, the US government temporarily eased economic sanctions to allow Russian oil currently stranded at sea to be sold to India. It said the transactions, including from vessels blocked by various sanctions regimes, are authorised through the end of the day on 3 April 2026.
California May Flip 50-Year Nuclear Moratorium California, long a leader in aggressive renewable energy mandates, is showing early signs of softening its decades-old ban on new nuclear power . Bloomberg reported cracks are appearing in the state’s 1976 moratorium, driven by surging electricity demand from AI data centers and the challenge of hitting absurd climate targets like 90% clean electricit...
California May Flip 50-Year Nuclear Moratorium California, long a leader in aggressive renewable energy mandates, is showing early signs of softening its decades-old ban on new nuclear power . Bloomberg reported cracks are appearing in the state’s 1976 moratorium, driven by surging electricity demand from AI data centers and the challenge of hitting absurd climate targets like 90% clean electricity by 2035 and 100% by 2045 . At the center of the development is Assembly Bill 2647 , introduced last month by Democratic Assembly Member Lisa Calderon with Republican co-sponsors. The legislation would exempt “advanced nuclear reactors” , defined as systems licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission since 2005, from the state’s long-standing prohibition. Calderon stated the bill keeps nuclear “on the table” as an essential tool for reliable, low-carbon power. The move aligns with a broader U.S. resurgence in nuclear interest, but in California it comes against a backdrop of chronic grid strain. The state has already leaned on its sole remaining nuclear facility, Diablo Canyon, to avoid worse outcomes. In 2022/23, Governor Gavin Newsom pushed through lawsuits for an extension of the plant’s operations past its original 2025 closure date after warnings of rolling blackouts. It was a glaring admission that electric grids are far from being sustainable with just wind and sunlight . PG&E Launches $73B California Grid Plan To Feed Starving AI https://t.co/tsmtfalX1K — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2025 Just last week, Diablo Canyon cleared its final state permitting hurdles, paving the way for continued operation through at least 2030 and potentially longer pending federal relicensing. We’ve chronicled these pressures for years. As far back as 2023 we detailed the legal battles surrounding Diablo Canyon’s then-planned shutdown. Last year, we also noted Newsom’s clean-energy claims and how extensions of both Diablo Canyon and natural-gas plants were critical to preventi...