WANAN YOSSINGKUM/iStock via Getty Images Despite the Strait of Hormuz still remaining effectively closed for 10 weeks now, stocks remain in rally mode. The S&P 500 is up just over 16% from its March 30th lows. The NASDAQ is roughly up a quarter. A huge chunk of this rise has been powered by better-than-expected Q1 results from chip stocks like Intel ( INTC ), NVIDIA Corp. ( NVDA ) and Advanced Mic...
WANAN YOSSINGKUM/iStock via Getty Images Despite the Strait of Hormuz still remaining effectively closed for 10 weeks now, stocks remain in rally mode. The S&P 500 is up just over 16% from its March 30th lows. The NASDAQ is roughly up a quarter. A huge chunk of this rise has been powered by better-than-expected Q1 results from chip stocks like Intel ( INTC ), NVIDIA Corp. ( NVDA ) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ( AMD ) as well as AI-related concerns like Datadog, Inc. ( DDOG ) . SOX Stock Chart (Seeking Alpha) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ( SOX ) is up an incredible 60% from its lows in March. Ironically, the semiconductor industry is adversely impacted from global supplies of helium being constrained by the conflict in the Middle East. Roughly one third of global helium supplies go through the Strait of Hormuz. Helium is a critical component for semiconductor manufacturing. Meanwhile, the U.S. had GDP growth of just .5% in Q4 and an initial reading of two percent for Q1. A huge slowdown from the over four percent growth in Q2 and Q3. The housing sector remains moribund ; the jobs market has been anemic since the start of 2025 and layoffs are rising with major reductions in force recently being announced at USPS, Meta Platforms ( META ), Oracle ( ORCL ) , and Block ( XYZ ) , while inflation levels have risen recently. BEA Simply put, investors seem to be ' betting on the come ', despite equities already trading at already historically high valuation levels. The market has chosen to rally around three key assumptions that may or may not play out in the months ahead. In today's column, I look at these in more detail. Shiller PE Ratio (Multpl) The Iranian Conflict Ends Soon: The last part of this equity rally has been driven that the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching a compact that ends this conflict and reopens the critical global chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. This agreement would consist of some key items. Iran would agree to a moratorium around its...
Carmaker Stellantis announced Friday it is considering selling an underutilised factory in Spain to its Chinese joint venture Leapmotor, which could save jobs in the short term but risks further strengthening Chinese automakers.The Stellantis announcement, however, is the first time a European automaker has so openly presented such collaboration on producing models with a Chinese partner.
Carmaker Stellantis announced Friday it is considering selling an underutilised factory in Spain to its Chinese joint venture Leapmotor, which could save jobs in the short term but risks further strengthening Chinese automakers.The Stellantis announcement, however, is the first time a European automaker has so openly presented such collaboration on producing models with a Chinese partner.
Earnings Call Insights: Burford Capital (BUR) Q1 2026 Management View "Burford is the clear acknowledged market leader in a growing, high-return, uncorrelated industry" (CEO Christopher Bogart), while emphasizing that "The YPF loss is disappointing and it's something that we expect to turn around, but it is an entirely noncash event. And in fact, we have made a nice cash profit from it." (CEO Boga...
Earnings Call Insights: Burford Capital (BUR) Q1 2026 Management View "Burford is the clear acknowledged market leader in a growing, high-return, uncorrelated industry" (CEO Christopher Bogart), while emphasizing that "The YPF loss is disappointing and it's something that we expect to turn around, but it is an entirely noncash event. And in fact, we have made a nice cash profit from it." (CEO Bogart) "Later today, we're going to be filing our en banc petition" (CEO Bogart), adding, "statistically, that's something that is realistically difficult to obtain" and describing arbitration as "a very real alternative." (CEO Bogart) "We have, in fact, arbitrated successfully against Argentina before" and "Argentina loses very regularly when it goes to arbitration" (CEO Bogart), citing that "86% of the more than 50 cases brought against it have been -- have resulted in a pro investor outcome" and that "the vast, vast majority of arbitration awards are satisfied." (CEO Bogart) "We have applied our valuation policy, and we've taken a very substantial write down of the YPF asset value" (CEO Bogart), while stressing, "We've made a cash profit of more than $100 million" and warning that arbitration will be "kind of quiet" and "confidential." (CEO Bogart) "Our liquidity position is very strong" (CEO Bogart): "We consciously raised $500 million in January" and "we sit today with more than $700 million of cash in the bank." (CEO Bogart) "We now have a higher debt equity ratio than we would like, and we are going to work over time to address that" (CEO Bogart), including: "We've been in discussions with shareholders for several years about the dividend" and "we also reiterate our longstanding position that share repurchases are not appropriate at this point." (CEO Bogart) "We have announced this morning the departure of Craig Arnott, our CIO International" and "Travis Lenkner is going to become the Chief Operating Officer" (CEO Bogart) "New definitive commitments were $133 million" (...
Earnings Call Insights: Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS) Q1 2026 Management View CEO Ryan Napierski said Q1 was “in line with expectations for both revenue and adjusted earnings,” and framed the near-term focus as building toward “our plans of returning to growth in the second half of this year.” CEO Napierski positioned Prysm iO as central to the model shift, stating, “Prysm iO is not simply another pro...
Earnings Call Insights: Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS) Q1 2026 Management View CEO Ryan Napierski said Q1 was “in line with expectations for both revenue and adjusted earnings,” and framed the near-term focus as building toward “our plans of returning to growth in the second half of this year.” CEO Napierski positioned Prysm iO as central to the model shift, stating, “Prysm iO is not simply another product launch. It's a foundational platform,” and described near-term execution work as sales leaders transition “from social sellers to Beauty and Wellness consultants.” On early platform activity, CEO Napierski reported, “Since our initial introduction of Prysm last December, we've generated nearly 2 million scans from more than 30,000 Prysm iO devices around the globe,” and tied adoption to monetization, adding, “As Prysm iO adoption increases and more people are scanned, we expect subscriptions to increase.” Interim CFO Chelsea Lantz reported the quarter’s headline results and key exclusions: “For the first quarter, we delivered revenue of $320.6 million,” and “GAAP earnings per share were $0.04, while adjusted earnings per share were $0.14, excluding costs related to our decision to wind down our separate BeautyBio business and other charges.” CFO Lantz highlighted capital structure actions and shareholder returns: “During the quarter, we completed a refinancing of our credit facilities, extending maturities through 2031 and improving our overall cost of borrowing,” and “we returned approximately $8 million to shareholders during the quarter, comprised of $3 million in dividends and $5 million in share repurchases.” Outlook Management maintained its full-year view amid macro uncertainty: CFO Lantz said, “We are maintaining our annual guidance and expect to provide more clarity following the second quarter,” while noting the team is “mindful of potential inflationary pressures impacting consumer sentiment related to macro factors such as tariffs, recent fuel price increas...
Train operator will become 11th national service returned to public ownership since Labour was elected in 2024 Great Western Railway will be nationalised in December, the government has announced. The train service, which has been in private hands for 30 years, mainly run by First Group, will be the 11th train operator on the national railway brought back into public ownership . Continue reading.....
Train operator will become 11th national service returned to public ownership since Labour was elected in 2024 Great Western Railway will be nationalised in December, the government has announced. The train service, which has been in private hands for 30 years, mainly run by First Group, will be the 11th train operator on the national railway brought back into public ownership . Continue reading...
Earnings Call Insights: LENSAR (LNSR) Q1 2026 Management View CEO Nicholas Curtis framed Q1 as a reset after the terminated Alcon deal, saying, “Near the end of the first quarter, we turned the page, marking a new beginning for LENSAR as we exited the transaction-related holding pattern” and adding that “for the next several quarters, success won't be measured by any metric on our P&L, but rather ...
Earnings Call Insights: LENSAR (LNSR) Q1 2026 Management View CEO Nicholas Curtis framed Q1 as a reset after the terminated Alcon deal, saying, “Near the end of the first quarter, we turned the page, marking a new beginning for LENSAR as we exited the transaction-related holding pattern” and adding that “for the next several quarters, success won't be measured by any metric on our P&L, but rather by progress towards reestablishing the solid foundation and momentum for growth.” Curtis highlighted mix shift toward recurring revenue and slower placements, stating, “We generated total revenue of $13.4 million in the quarter, which was down about 5% from $14.2 million a year ago,” and added that “recurring revenue… was up $1.1 million, or 9%,… representing 94% of our total revenue for Q1 2026.” Curtis provided commercial and market share datapoints, saying, “We placed 7 ALLY systems during the quarter… with another 11 systems in backlog pending installation,” “we performed approximately 54,000 procedures in the first quarter,” and “our U.S. procedure market share at the end of the first quarter was 23.4%, consistent with reported market share on December 31.” CFO Thomas Staab emphasized the system sales drop and recurring revenue growth: “System revenue was approximately $800,000 this quarter compared with $2.6 million in the prior year quarter,” while “total recurring revenue [was] $12.6 million, up 9% from the $11.5 million in the prior year quarter.” Staab also disclosed leadership change, with Curtis noting, “after today's call, Tom will be leaving us,” and Staab closing, “LENSAR's future is bright, and I leave the organization in a strong position to reclaim the success we experienced in 2024.” Outlook Management did not provide formal financial guidance, with Curtis instead describing the pace of recovery: “it's going to take us the next couple of quarters,” and adding, “I really expect the next few quarters to be this like steady progress of rebuilding and improve...
Earnings Call Insights: BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) Q1 2026 Management View "We've had $180.6 million of Attruby sales in U.S. Attruby net product revenue this quarter," CEO Neil Kumar said, adding it was "a 24% growth from the last quarter" and "consistent with the brand globally becoming a blockbuster in 2026." He also said new data and Part D orphan-drug channel dynamics "underpin our confidence th...
Earnings Call Insights: BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) Q1 2026 Management View "We've had $180.6 million of Attruby sales in U.S. Attruby net product revenue this quarter," CEO Neil Kumar said, adding it was "a 24% growth from the last quarter" and "consistent with the brand globally becoming a blockbuster in 2026." He also said new data and Part D orphan-drug channel dynamics "underpin our confidence that Attruby will continue to grow even past 2032." On differentiation, CEO Neil Kumar highlighted multiple real-world and longer-term datasets, including: "an independent real-world evidence study... revealed statistically significant outcome improvements associated with acoramidis as compared to tafamidis" and a forthcoming publication that "Attruby reduces diuretic intensification by 43% as compared to tafamidis." He also pointed to ACC open-label extension results at month 54, citing "a remarkable statistically significant risk reduction of 45% in all-cause mortality" and "a 49% reduction in cardiovascular mortality" versus placebo. CEO Neil Kumar announced capital return: "the Board has authorized a $500 million share repurchase program" that "will commence immediately." He framed repurchases as "additive and opportunistic, not substitutive" and said the company will "always size deployment such that we preserve full flexibility to finance every credible program and activity in our portfolio." CFO Thomas Trimarchi said, "Total revenues for the first quarter of 2026 were $194.5 million," driven primarily by Attruby, while "Total operating expenses... were $290.5 million." He added, "in the first quarter, we recorded a $106 million operating loss," and stated, "We ended the first quarter with $940.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities." Outlook CFO Thomas Trimarchi said, "we expect the trend in loss from operations to flatten over the next 2 quarters" as the company ramps launch readiness, and to continue "narrowing towards the end of this year to 2...
Earnings Call Insights: Kingsway Financial Services Inc. (KFS) Q1 2026 Management view "March stood out as a particularly good month, and we see clear business momentum across our portfolio, entering what are seasonally stronger summer months for many of our businesses," said President, CEO & Director John Fitzgerald. "We are pleased to reiterate our expectation for double-digit organic growth in ...
Earnings Call Insights: Kingsway Financial Services Inc. (KFS) Q1 2026 Management view "March stood out as a particularly good month, and we see clear business momentum across our portfolio, entering what are seasonally stronger summer months for many of our businesses," said President, CEO & Director John Fitzgerald. "We are pleased to reiterate our expectation for double-digit organic growth in revenue and profit at both KSX and Extended Warranty," said President, CEO & Director Fitzgerald, while also saying, "We continue to anticipate completing three to five acquisitions in 2026, in line with our target." "The KSX segment achieved record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 million in Q1," said President, CEO & Director Fitzgerald, adding that "March was record-setting for Roundhouse with monthly revenue above $2 million for the first time ever under Kingsway's ownership." On Extended Warranty, President, CEO & Director Fitzgerald said "modified cash EBITDA came in ahead of internal expectations and cash sales were up 11.8% year-over-year," and added, "The combination of strong top line growth and moderating claims growth supports our view that Extended Warranty is on track for an excellent year." "At the end of March, Kingsway announced that our Board of Directors had proposed a name change to Kingsway Corporation and a proposed stock ticker change to KWY," said President, CEO & Director Fitzgerald, while noting, "The proposed name change is subject to shareholder approval at the company's upcoming Annual General Meeting of Shareholders scheduled for May 18" and "the company's CUSIP number will not change." "I'm thrilled to share that Adam Patinken was recently elected Chairman of Kingsway's Board of Directors," said President, CEO & Director Fitzgerald, and added, "Terry Cavanaugh, who served as Board Chairman in the last 12 years, accepted Adam's request to continue to serve as Vice Chairman of the Board." "For the first quarter of 2026, consolidated revenue inc...
imaginima/E+ via Getty Images Scaling the Wall of Worry What is interesting here is how there is a type of cognitive dissonance (a form of mental tension) that seems to be driving Wall Street's behavior at this particular moment. On one hand, television news programs are continuously reporting on rising tensions in the Middle East, blocked shipping lanes, damaged logistics systems, and inflation b...
imaginima/E+ via Getty Images Scaling the Wall of Worry What is interesting here is how there is a type of cognitive dissonance (a form of mental tension) that seems to be driving Wall Street's behavior at this particular moment. On one hand, television news programs are continuously reporting on rising tensions in the Middle East, blocked shipping lanes, damaged logistics systems, and inflation being more resilient than anticipated. On the other hand, U.S. Stock Market indexes (the S&P 500 Index, for example), are continuing to reach new highs. How do we explain such an obvious disconnect from reality? The reason we can explain the disconnect is due to another well-documented phenomenon in financial markets. This phenomenon is referred to as "scaling the Wall of Worry" (i.e., scaling the fear). Bull markets never start in clear skies. They begin in fear, progress in skepticism, mature in optimism, and end in euphoria. Sounds philosophical doesn't it? But this is not just theory, it is applied to everyday life and markets. Agar Capital, Bloomberg Terminal Markets are time machines that price the cash flows of the future, not a mirror of the current emotional state of society. As false fears and/or transitory crises dissipate, the brickwork of the Wall of Worry erodes away and stocks once again advance upward. In addition to the background noise, and general apocalyptic view that many have about the world today, the structure of the U.S. economy appears very strong. I have extensively researched the fundamentals, and based upon my research I believe there are currently five powerful factors that support optimism regarding U.S. equities through the remainder of 2026. They will be discussed in detail below. I would appreciate your feedback, opinions, and differing perspectives in the comments section, so that together we may develop our own conclusions. 1. The Resolution of the U.S.-Iran Conflict One of the primary drivers for stock markets right now is the possibility...
Market Catalysts host Julie Hyman takes a look at some of Friday's trending tickers and stories. CoreWeave (CRWV) stock is sinking after the company issued weak revenue guidance. IREN (IREN) stock is surging on news that Nvidia (NVDA) is investing up to $2.1 billion in the company. Rocket Labs (RKLB) stock is skyrocketing on the company's strong quarterly sales numbers. Wendy's (WEN) stock is on t...
Market Catalysts host Julie Hyman takes a look at some of Friday's trending tickers and stories. CoreWeave (CRWV) stock is sinking after the company issued weak revenue guidance. IREN (IREN) stock is surging on news that Nvidia (NVDA) is investing up to $2.1 billion in the company. Rocket Labs (RKLB) stock is skyrocketing on the company's strong quarterly sales numbers. Wendy's (WEN) stock is on the rise after the company beat Wall Street's earnings estimates.
mbbirdy/E+ via Getty Images Wall Street’s major market averages pushed higher on Friday as investors digested the latest nonfarm payrolls print and sidestepped the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The blue chip Dow ( DJI ) was +0.2%, the benchmark S&P 500 ( SP500 ) was +0.7%, and the tech focused Nasdaq Composite ( COMP:IND ) was +1.23%. Now, here are four news stories that broke in the mornin...
mbbirdy/E+ via Getty Images Wall Street’s major market averages pushed higher on Friday as investors digested the latest nonfarm payrolls print and sidestepped the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The blue chip Dow ( DJI ) was +0.2%, the benchmark S&P 500 ( SP500 ) was +0.7%, and the tech focused Nasdaq Composite ( COMP:IND ) was +1.23%. Now, here are four news stories that broke in the morning to watch out for: US nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations: The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April, beating the 63,000 consensus estimate while slowing from March’s revised 185,000 gain. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, and wage growth came in softer than anticipated at 0.2% month-over-month. Healthcare led hiring with 37,000 new positions, while information technology shed 13,000 jobs. The solid employment picture shifts Fed focus toward inflation, with the CME FedWatch tool now showing a 75.6% probability the central bank holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% through December, up from 70.1% the prior day. Consumer sentiment hits May low: The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index slipped to 48.2 in May from 49.8 in April, missing the 49.3 consensus. One-year inflation expectations edged down to 4.5% from 4.7% but remain well above the 3.4% reading from February before the Iran conflict began. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that roughly one-third of respondents spontaneously cited gasoline prices while about 30% mentioned tariffs. The current economic conditions index dropped roughly 9% to 47.8 as high prices weighed on personal finances and major purchase decisions. CoreWeave shares retreat on revenue outlook: Shares of AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave ( CRWV ) fell about 8% in premarket trading after the company’s second-quarter revenue guidance disappointed, despite first-quarter results beating estimates by 5%. Analysts remain broadly constructive, pointing to the company’s revenue backlog reaching $99.4 billion, up from $66.8 billion l...
monkeybusinessimages/iStock via Getty Images The nonfarm payroll report released by the BLS came in better than expected, adding 115K jobs against an estimate of 65K. The unemployment rate, which was estimated at 4.3%, came in right on target. One of the most contentious stats also came in low, with two-month revisions totaling (16k). BLS The April Jobs Report Here's the headline table with my hig...
monkeybusinessimages/iStock via Getty Images The nonfarm payroll report released by the BLS came in better than expected, adding 115K jobs against an estimate of 65K. The unemployment rate, which was estimated at 4.3%, came in right on target. One of the most contentious stats also came in low, with two-month revisions totaling (16k). BLS The April Jobs Report Here's the headline table with my highlights: Annotations by author (BLS) While the unemployment figure remained steady and jobs were added, the unemployed worker count still grew in April. This was the same with the non-participants (“not in labor force.”) Looking at the second part, we see that once again, job growth is led primarily by healthcare. Retail trade and transportation/warehousing also did well; transportation is rebounding from large losses, so I wouldn't put too much stock in that. Annotations by author (BLS) As expected, information and financial activities jobs retracted; I recommend taking a look at the data I found on that front last month in “ AI Already Took 3 Million Jobs. ” We also saw significant pain in the <5 weeks unemployed category despite relief coming for those between 5 and 26 weeks and little change in the 27+ week pool. This warming up for the moderately unemployed folks has been showing up in state unemployment claims, with the continuing claims falling through the year, well below their expectations, and now crossing under the 2024 figure. Macro Mostly The short-term surge isn't aligning with initial state unemployment claims data, which is coming in far lower than expected. The 2026 figure is well below even the 2023 figure at this time of year. Macro Mostly But that may be due to the layoff surge we saw in tech . Although outside the JOLTS data (which is still concerning, along with the announcements by big tech firms of mass layoffs), other layoff indicators have gotten rather quiet recently—at worst, the data are now showing mixed. Macro Mostly Back to the report, I thin...
Few stocks have made investors as much money as Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) has since the calendar flipped to 2026. Its stock has risen about 110%, which is an incredible run in just over a four-month time frame. However, if you look at Nebius' stock chart, you'll see the majority of those gains came during April. I think there's still more where that came from, and it all comes down to one thing: growt...
Few stocks have made investors as much money as Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) has since the calendar flipped to 2026. Its stock has risen about 110%, which is an incredible run in just over a four-month time frame. However, if you look at Nebius' stock chart, you'll see the majority of those gains came during April. I think there's still more where that came from, and it all comes down to one thing: growth. You'll be hard-pressed to find another stock that's growing revenue as fast as Nebius, which is directly translating into stock price performance. But just how high can Nebius go? Let's take a look. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading