Supatman/iStock via Getty Images Overview Alphabet Inc. ( GOOG , GOOGL ) is on the verge of becoming the most valuable company in the world after its post-earnings rally. I have been bullish on the stock since July 2025, and the stock has more than doubled since. However, I think it may be time to take some profits off the table. While the earnings have been super strong and the future looks brigh...
Supatman/iStock via Getty Images Overview Alphabet Inc. ( GOOG , GOOGL ) is on the verge of becoming the most valuable company in the world after its post-earnings rally. I have been bullish on the stock since July 2025, and the stock has more than doubled since. However, I think it may be time to take some profits off the table. While the earnings have been super strong and the future looks bright on the growth front, it may become tougher to beat the high expectations going forward. Additionally, valuations appear stretched to me from a historical as well as an SOTP lens, and there may be limited upside going forward. Bullish: Growth Goes Beast Mode Alphabet’s revenues came in at nearly $110 billion, growing almost 22% YoY, which is the highest in the last 10 quarters and one of its strongest quarters for revenue growth in recent years. The most surprising component was the Search business, which grew revenues by a staggering 19% YoY. YouTube continues to grow steadily at about 10% YoY. The other huge surprise came from the Google Cloud business, which grew by a massive 63%, the fastest of the big three cloud service providers. Cloud’s operating margins grew 1510 bps YoY (and 280 bps QoQ ), from 17.8% to 32.9%, and Google Services operating margins improved 300 bps YoY from 42.3% to 45.3%. The margin expansion led to operating income growth of 29.70%, second only to Meta ( META ), but Alphabet was able to expand margins, too. While other hyperscalers saw margin contraction or very limited margin expansion in their cloud businesses due to the depreciation from all the AI capex, the fact that Alphabet was able to expand margins YoY as well as sequentially is a massive positive in my opinion. I would expect this ramped-up pace of revenue growth to continue in the near future because of the massive increase in remaining performance obligations (also known as revenue backlog). Google’s current revenue backlog at the end of Q1 2026 stands at $467.6 billion. What is most...
Supatman/iStock via Getty Images Overview Alphabet Inc. ( GOOG , GOOGL ) is on the verge of becoming the most valuable company in the world after its post-earnings rally. I have been bullish on the stock since July 2025, and the stock has more than doubled since. However, I think it may be time to take some profits off the table. While the earnings have been super strong and the future looks brigh...
Supatman/iStock via Getty Images Overview Alphabet Inc. ( GOOG , GOOGL ) is on the verge of becoming the most valuable company in the world after its post-earnings rally. I have been bullish on the stock since July 2025, and the stock has more than doubled since. However, I think it may be time to take some profits off the table. While the earnings have been super strong and the future looks bright on the growth front, it may become tougher to beat the high expectations going forward. Additionally, valuations appear stretched to me from a historical as well as an SOTP lens, and there may be limited upside going forward. Bullish: Growth Goes Beast Mode Alphabet’s revenues came in at nearly $110 billion, growing almost 22% YoY, which is the highest in the last 10 quarters and one of its strongest quarters for revenue growth in recent years. The most surprising component was the Search business, which grew revenues by a staggering 19% YoY. YouTube continues to grow steadily at about 10% YoY. The other huge surprise came from the Google Cloud business, which grew by a massive 63%, the fastest of the big three cloud service providers. Cloud’s operating margins grew 1510 bps YoY (and 280 bps QoQ ), from 17.8% to 32.9%, and Google Services operating margins improved 300 bps YoY from 42.3% to 45.3%. The margin expansion led to operating income growth of 29.70%, second only to Meta ( META ), but Alphabet was able to expand margins, too. While other hyperscalers saw margin contraction or very limited margin expansion in their cloud businesses due to the depreciation from all the AI capex, the fact that Alphabet was able to expand margins YoY as well as sequentially is a massive positive in my opinion. I would expect this ramped-up pace of revenue growth to continue in the near future because of the massive increase in remaining performance obligations (also known as revenue backlog). Google’s current revenue backlog at the end of Q1 2026 stands at $467.6 billion. What is most...
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee to be the chair of the Federal Reserve, was confirmed by the full Senate on Tuesday, in time for him to assume the role when Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ends on May 23. The vote was 51 for and 45 against, with four senators who didn't vote . Powell is breaking with tradition by staying on the board as a governor instead of stepping down as most c...
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee to be the chair of the Federal Reserve, was confirmed by the full Senate on Tuesday, in time for him to assume the role when Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ends on May 23. The vote was 51 for and 45 against, with four senators who didn't vote . Powell is breaking with tradition by staying on the board as a governor instead of stepping down as most chairs do when their terms end. After the April Federal Market Open Committee meeting, Powell said he'll remain on the board while an investigation into his handling of Fed building renovations continues. His term as a governor ends on Jan. 31, 2028, but Powell said he'll step down once the investigation is completely over. Last month, the Inspector General of the Federal Reserve took over the probe as the Justice Department dropped its investigation.. Developing… Check back for updates. Dear readers: We recognize that politics often intersects with the financial news of the day, so we invite you to click here to join the separate political discussion. More on Rates Upside Chasing In Tech Stocks Surges To Covid Extremes U.S. Bonds Hit 5%: Mayday SPX Realized Skew Inverts As Traders Focus On Right Tail Fed funds futures turn more hawkish after hot CPI report Will Trump tariff setback widen the U.S. fiscal deficit?
Microsoft has heard your complaints about Windows 11, and it wants to make things better. That has been the messaging out of Microsoft for most of this year , and the company is also going out of its way to make sure that people know what is being improved and how. One of the goals on Microsoft’s long list was to improve the performance of core Windows components like the Start menu and File Explo...
Microsoft has heard your complaints about Windows 11, and it wants to make things better. That has been the messaging out of Microsoft for most of this year , and the company is also going out of its way to make sure that people know what is being improved and how. One of the goals on Microsoft’s long list was to improve the performance of core Windows components like the Start menu and File Explorer. One of the strategies for making this happen is something Microsoft is calling the “low latency profile,” which will speed things up by calling on an extra burst of CPU speed when users open Start or other apps and context menus. Windows Central has tested the low latency profile available in test builds of Windows 11 and observed a noticeable increase in speed and responsiveness on the same hardware compared to the current public version of Windows 11 25H2. Read full article Comments
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Markets are pulling back on Tuesday from record highs, with stocks tied to artificial intelligence buildout down the most. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 1.5% in afternoon trading, while the S & P 500 was off about 0.6%. Several...
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Markets are pulling back on Tuesday from record highs, with stocks tied to artificial intelligence buildout down the most. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 1.5% in afternoon trading, while the S & P 500 was off about 0.6%. Several factors were at play. First was the continued strength in the oil market due to uncertainty over the Iran peace deal. At its highs of the day Tuesday, U.S. oil benchmark WTI crude crossed above $102 per barrel; it settled Monday at $98.07. Another factor was the hot April consumer price index (CPI) report , which made the market worried that the Federal Reserve's next move could be a hike, not a cut. The market now sees a roughly 36% probability of a rate hike by year-end, up from about 24% yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch tool . These probabilities can swing back and forth with every new data point and headline out of the war, so we wouldn't read too much into this just yet. Still, we also wouldn't ignore the signals from the bond market, which is sensitive to inflation expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.45% and the 30-Year yield crossed above 5%. Rising interest rates are typically negative for high price-to-earnings multiple stocks, explaining why growth-oriented names took a hit. Third and finally, a lot of AI-related stocks were overbought after going parabolic in recent weeks. Some giveback had to be expected at some point. The challenge with parabolic moves is that when momentum reverses, the sell-offs are often much faster than investors can react to. That's why we prefer to trim positions during parabolic rallies, recognizing that we're unlikely to perfectly time the top. We don't think the AI trade is over, but we would not be surprised to see some profit-taking persist in the near term, given the extraordinary run the group has had sin...
A federal appeals court has temporarily paused a ruling that declared President Donald Trump ’s latest global tariffs unlawful, as the judges weigh the administration’s request to let officials continue to collect the levies while the legal fight is ongoing. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued a brief order on Tuesday entering what’s known as an administrative stay, and set a sc...
A federal appeals court has temporarily paused a ruling that declared President Donald Trump ’s latest global tariffs unlawful, as the judges weigh the administration’s request to let officials continue to collect the levies while the legal fight is ongoing. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued a brief order on Tuesday entering what’s known as an administrative stay, and set a schedule for both sides to file briefs on the longer-term delay issue in the coming two weeks. The order means importers will continue to pay the 10% tariffs under President Donald Trump’s use of Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction & Investment Thesis When I last wrote about the S&P 500 ( SPY ), I said that the index may be hitting the upper circuit and presented two possible scenarios for what would happen next. In the first scenario, the index would continue moving higher, while in the second scenario, we would break the 10-day moving average support level that coul...
Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction & Investment Thesis When I last wrote about the S&P 500 ( SPY ), I said that the index may be hitting the upper circuit and presented two possible scenarios for what would happen next. In the first scenario, the index would continue moving higher, while in the second scenario, we would break the 10-day moving average support level that could turn into a 15-20% drawdown into the summer and early fall. So far, the first scenario has played out, with the S&P 500 locking in gains for the 6th consecutive week as the AI/semi trade ( SMH ) rages on. However, yesterday, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to end the conflict, causing both oil ( CO1:COM ) and the dollar ( DXY ) to surge higher. To complicate matters further, we also have three key economic reports that are coming out this week that include April CPI, April PPI, and April Retail sales that can give the bull market a reality check. We just received the numbers for April CPI , that shows consumer prices rose 3.8% for the full year, 0.1 percentage points higher than estimates, making it the highest reading since May 2023. It doesn’t end there. At the end of the week, we also have a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, coming in, which often brings its own set of market uncertainties with it. Now with the semiconductor trade showing signs of exhaustion and investor sentiment and positioning on equities stretched, markets are not ready for what happens next. In this post, I will outline two possible scenarios for the next pullback and how I am positioning ahead for The Pragmatic Optimist portfolio. Oil Moving Higher Spells Trouble For The Bond Market On the back of US President Donald Trump rejecting Iran’s proposal to end the conflict yesterday, calling it “totally unacceptable," oil once again jumped by 3% to $105/barrel. According to Citi analysts, oil prices could rise further if Iran and the US do not reach a resolution soon, especially as the cu...
CalypsoArt/iStock via Getty Images Headwinds to Dalio’s All-weather Portfolio For decades, the All-Weather Portfolio (AWP) pioneered by Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has helped investors – this author being one of them – to navigate the changing macroeconomic conditions effectively. The AWP is designed to perform under all the main economic phases: the strong growth phase, the weakening growth pha...
CalypsoArt/iStock via Getty Images Headwinds to Dalio’s All-weather Portfolio For decades, the All-Weather Portfolio (AWP) pioneered by Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has helped investors – this author being one of them – to navigate the changing macroeconomic conditions effectively. The AWP is designed to perform under all the main economic phases: the strong growth phase, the weakening growth phase, the inflationary phase, and also the disinflationary phase. The AWP accomplishes this design goal by holding a mix of different assets to approximate risk-parity under different economic conditions. The mix usually includes a large allocation towards treasure bonds (say 55% with 40% toward long-term treasury bonds and 15% toward intermediate-term bonds), a sizable allocation towards equity (say 30% stocks), and some minor allocations towards alternative assets (say 7.5% gold and 7.5% commodities). The AWP strategy has worked effectively for decades (e.g. during 2000 to 2018 as you can see in the next chart). It not only outperformed the S&P 500 index for extended periods of time, but also did so with lower volatility and less severe drawdowns. However, the AWP strategy has started to lag the broader market since around 2018 by a wide margin as seen below. AWP vs. SP500 Against this backdrop, the thesis of this article is twofold. Firstly, I will argue that AWP’s lag will continue under current conditions due to several key factors with the top being the changing monetary order and the unfavorable return prospects of bonds. As a matter of fact, real treasury yields have been among record low and negative levels since the 1970s and I see increasing odds for them to drop further with the current inflation outlook. Secondly and probably more importantly, I want to explore some alternative investing framework to the AWP and will explain why the so-called barbell-model is worth considering under our current economic landscape. The changing monetary order A key driving force f...
Oil shipments from Iran’s main export terminal appear to have come to a standstill over the past several days, according to satellite images, the first sign of a prolonged halt since the start of the war. There were no ocean-going oil tankers observed at Kharg Island on May 8, 9 or 11, European satellite imagery compiled by Bloomberg shows. While there have been individual days when the jetties ha...
Oil shipments from Iran’s main export terminal appear to have come to a standstill over the past several days, according to satellite images, the first sign of a prolonged halt since the start of the war. There were no ocean-going oil tankers observed at Kharg Island on May 8, 9 or 11, European satellite imagery compiled by Bloomberg shows. While there have been individual days when the jetties have been empty since the conflict began, this is by far the longest stretch when no tankers have been spotted. Iran has loaded cargoes at the facility throughout the conflict, continuing to fill ships and use them as floating storage after their passage out of the Persian Gulf was blocked by the US Navy. If Kharg Island were to remain idle, it would increase the pressure on the country’s remaining storage facilities, which satellite images show are filling up. Estimates vary for how much space Iran has left, but if all tanks were to reach capacity it could be forced to make deeper production cuts. The country already curbed some output. The New York Times reported a 3,000 barrel leak at the facility based on a May 6 image, something that could have affected loadings. Iran has denied there’s been a spill and subsequent images, in which loadings had halted, don’t obviously show one. Pictures from the European Union’s Sentinel 2 satellite taken on May 11 show all the berths at Kharg Island lying empty. Images recorded both two and three days earlier show no ocean-going oil tankers at the facility. The terminal hasn’t been shown empty for more than a single day since the start of the war. There are satellite images of the Kharg Island jetties on 33 out of the 73 days since the US and Israel launched their attacks on Feb. 28. Only two of the earlier images show no tankers moored, one in mid-April and one in early March. There are gaps in the record because the path of the Sentinel 1 and 2 satellites around the Earth means that not all areas of the planet’s surface are covered eve...
ronniechua/iStock via Getty Images Last week, we learned that Canada lost 47,000 full-time jobs in April, while part-time employment edged up by 29,000. April’s loss means Canada has shed jobs in three of the first four months of 2026, for a total of 112,000 jobs lost since January. Nationally, the unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 6.9%. Employment fell in Quebec (-43,000), Newfoundl...
ronniechua/iStock via Getty Images Last week, we learned that Canada lost 47,000 full-time jobs in April, while part-time employment edged up by 29,000. April’s loss means Canada has shed jobs in three of the first four months of 2026, for a total of 112,000 jobs lost since January. Nationally, the unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 6.9%. Employment fell in Quebec (-43,000), Newfoundland and Labrador (-5,200), Saskatchewan (-4,000), and New Brunswick (-2,700), while Ontario gained 42,000 jobs. As students seek summer jobs, the unemployment rate among youth aged 15–24 rose to 14.3%. Highly indebted households are starting to crack under the pressure of monthly payments and rising living expenses. Many current homeowners bought during the 2019-2022 FOMO (fear-of-missing-out) frenzy. Some elders mortgaged their homes to give downpayments to children and grandchildren and co-signed on loans with family members. Some will need to delay retirement or return to work to make ends meet. The latest Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy (OSB) data shows insolvencies have been consistently grinding higher over the past year. At a 17-year high in March, the volume was second only to the 2009 financial crisis (shown below since 1988). The OSB received 143,353 insolvency filings in the 12 months ending in March, 4.2% higher than last year. That makes it the second-highest 12-month period ending in March on record, 4.5% behind the 2009 record. Insolvencies are just part of the story. See Canadian Consumer Insolvencies Approach 2009 Record Highs: Insolvencies don’t capture all debt stress. Many failures stay buried on lender books as missed payments, restructurings, or loans quietly extended. It’s not uncommon to roll all consumer debt into a mortgage takeout or HELOC. Then there’s the fact that 2009 was the peak of the global financial crisis. Today, we’re approaching that level while the economy is supposedly fine. We also have the benefit of knowing 2009 was the...
David Gyung/iStock via Getty Images Thomson Reuters ( TRI ) is implementing a Model Context Protocol (MCP) that will connect Anthropic’s ( ANTHRO ) Claude to the company’s legal AI assistant, enabling legal professionals to toggle seamlessly between general-purpose AI and citation-grounded legal work. The MCP will be integrated into Thomson Reuters’ ( TRI ) CoCounsel Legal software, a platform tha...
David Gyung/iStock via Getty Images Thomson Reuters ( TRI ) is implementing a Model Context Protocol (MCP) that will connect Anthropic’s ( ANTHRO ) Claude to the company’s legal AI assistant, enabling legal professionals to toggle seamlessly between general-purpose AI and citation-grounded legal work. The MCP will be integrated into Thomson Reuters’ ( TRI ) CoCounsel Legal software, a platform that can conduct legal research, document analysis, and drafting with Westlaw and Practice Law content built in. CoCounsel integrated with Claude will enable lawyers to “describe a matter in plain language and have CoCounsel Legal pursue the right inquiry, draft with citations, and include validated references in the fiduciary-grade work product.” "Thomson Reuters is building CoCounsel Legal to be the fiduciary-grade system at the center of how legal work gets done, connected to the tools lawyers use and built to the standard their work demands," said David Wong, Chief Product Officer, Thomson Reuters. More on Thomson Reuters Corporation, Anthropic Thomson Reuters Corporation (TRI:CA) Presents at Barclays 18th Annual Americas Select Conference Transcript Thomson Reuters Corporation (TRI:CA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Thomson Reuters Corporation 2026 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation OpenAI launches Daybreak, its AI security initiative competing with Claude Mythos EU-OpenAI in talks over cyber model, Anthropic still holding out Mythos
If you own the Vanguard Value ETF (NYSEARCA:VTV) for income, you are getting a roughly 1.9% trailing yield on a portfolio that calls itself value. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) pays roughly 4.1% on a portfolio that screens for the same unloved, cash-generative businesses VTV is supposed to capture. SCHD kept up with ... Why Buy the Vanguard Value ETF When You Can Buy This Ins...
If you own the Vanguard Value ETF (NYSEARCA:VTV) for income, you are getting a roughly 1.9% trailing yield on a portfolio that calls itself value. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) pays roughly 4.1% on a portfolio that screens for the same unloved, cash-generative businesses VTV is supposed to capture. SCHD kept up with ... Why Buy the Vanguard Value ETF When You Can Buy This Instead?
In this article GM Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT The General Motors global headquarters at Hudson's Detroit in Detroit, Michigan, US, on Monday, Jan. 12, 2026. Jeff Kowalsky | Bloomberg | Getty Images DETROIT — An ominous email about an oddly timed 15-minute virtual meeting. A scripted message from human resources. And an abrupt end to that meeting, as well as their job. That's h...
In this article GM Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT The General Motors global headquarters at Hudson's Detroit in Detroit, Michigan, US, on Monday, Jan. 12, 2026. Jeff Kowalsky | Bloomberg | Getty Images DETROIT — An ominous email about an oddly timed 15-minute virtual meeting. A scripted message from human resources. And an abrupt end to that meeting, as well as their job. That's how several General Motors employees who were laid off Monday by the Detroit automaker described their jobs being terminated to CNBC. "No appreciation or empathy. No questions. Nothing," said a data analyst who worked for more than a decade at the automaker. The layoffs impacted about 500 to 600 employees, largely in information technology roles in Austin, Texas, and Warren, Michigan, and came as the automaker reevaluates its workforce needs and cuts costs amid uncertain market conditions. Two laid off workers who agreed to speak to CNBC on the condition of anonymity for fear of repercussions or impacts to potential future jobs said their units had gone through recent restructurings and that they were being encouraged to use artificial intelligence more in their work. "They're going to push AI for everyday work and everything else," said a veteran programmer and data scientist for the company. "I've seen it firsthand. It can make you much more productive, as a programmer. It can really help you get more work done, but AI isn't going to do you any good if you don't know the business." Automakers, like many major companies, are using AI to help workers make their jobs more efficient, but the emerging technology also has led to layoffs. Companies like Amazon , Meta , Oracle and Block have announced rounds of job cuts , with some emphasizing AI's role in automating work and boosting productivity with lower headcounts. GM declined to discuss the role AI played in its most recent layoffs or give additional details of reasoning for the job cuts outside of a Monday statement: "GM is...
July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26 ) today is down -121 (-2.57%), and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26 ) is down -51 (-1.46%). Cocoa prices are sliding today, giving back some of their recent rally as a stronger dollar ($DXY ) sparked long liquidation in cocoa futures. Losses in London...
July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26 ) today is down -121 (-2.57%), and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26 ) is down -51 (-1.46%). Cocoa prices are sliding today, giving back some of their recent rally as a stronger dollar ($DXY ) sparked long liquidation in cocoa futures. Losses in London...
Baron Capital's Ron Baron thinks Elon Musk's SpaceX could eventually be "the largest company on the planet" with a market capitalization of $30 trillion.
Baron Capital's Ron Baron thinks Elon Musk's SpaceX could eventually be "the largest company on the planet" with a market capitalization of $30 trillion.