PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images The worldwide Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys indicated that global trade fell slightly for a second successive month in April, reflecting the ongoing impact of the war in the Middle East. However, trends varied markedly, notably by sector, with dampened services activities in part offset by rising merchandise trade, albeit the latter again buoyed ...
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images The worldwide Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys indicated that global trade fell slightly for a second successive month in April, reflecting the ongoing impact of the war in the Middle East. However, trends varied markedly, notably by sector, with dampened services activities in part offset by rising merchandise trade, albeit the latter again buoyed by stock building. Trade subdued by Middle East conflict The seasonally adjusted Global PMI New Export Orders, sponsored by J.P. Morgan and compiled by S&P Global, held steady at 49.6 in April, running just below the 50.0 neutral mark to signal a further marginal fall in trade volumes. The recent declines come after trade rose in February for the first time in nearly a year, in part reflecting easing headwinds from US tariff policy and reflecting the deteriorating trade environment amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Not only has the war seen associated travel and shipping disruptions, but has also seen demand damaged as prices spiked higher for many goods and services, primarily due to the surge in oil and gas prices. However, these factors have affected sectors to different degrees. April saw the service sector hit especially hard by the conflict, notably in terms of travel, tourism and leisure exports. Overall service sector new export orders consequently fell worldwide at the steepest rate since October 2022. Barring the pandemic, the decline was the sharpest since comparable data were available in 2014. Global exports of goods, meanwhile, showed greater resilience, rising marginally after holding flat in March. After the pre-war gain reported in February, April’s rise in merchandise trade was, in fact, the largest recorded for almost two years, broadly consistent with goods export volumes growing at a 5-6% annual rate. Stock building boost Some of this improvement in goods exports reflected the further precautionary stock building, with April seeing...
The UK’s latest political crisis threatens to trigger a fresh exodus from its volatile bond market as investors at home and abroad weigh up whether to put their money elsewhere. About a third of the government’s debt is in the hands of foreign investors who can easily shift money elsewhere during a crisis. So can locals. And officials have warned about the growing role played by hedge funds that m...
The UK’s latest political crisis threatens to trigger a fresh exodus from its volatile bond market as investors at home and abroad weigh up whether to put their money elsewhere. About a third of the government’s debt is in the hands of foreign investors who can easily shift money elsewhere during a crisis. So can locals. And officials have warned about the growing role played by hedge funds that may be forced to unwind leveraged trades if the bond market moves the wrong way. The dynamic famously turned Liz Truss into the nation’s shortest-serving prime minister in 2022, when yields surged as foreign investors dumped a record amount of bonds on concerns about her fiscal plans. A smaller selloff briefly rattled the market last summer on speculation that Prime Minister Keir Starmer would dump his Chancellor of the Exchequer and potentially do away with her fiscal rules. Now Starmer is headed into a divisive battle to keep his job after the populist party Reform UK dealt his Labour Party a significant defeat in last week’s local elections. Starmer’s former deputy, Angela Rayner, indicated Thursday she was preparing for a leadership bid and Health Secretary Wes Streeting is expected to mount his own challenge. Read more: Starmer Rivals Ready Bids to Challenge Weakened Prime Minister For global investors, the political ructions are being overshadowed for now by the inflationary impacts of the Iran war that’s pushed up yields around the globe. But even with 30-year yields at over 5.7% — the highest since the late 1990s — some fund managers are wary, concerned that a political shift could push them even higher. “People are trying to stay out of it and see how this plays out,” said Antonina Tarassiouk , director of international economic analysis at Reams Asset Management , a US firm. “If rates have become attractive globally speaking, why would you go to somewhere where there’s significantly more risk right now?” Some of the volatility stems from the scale of the UK’s natio...