来源：华尔街情报圈 GoldPredict技术分析师托尔森（AG Thorson）：曾准确预言了金价去年4月、5月的暴跌。而在今年2月金价下跌时刻，他又是第一个唱多的人。 本周他又发表了最新观点： 第一，油价技术面已经“破位上涨” 文章最重要的判断是关于油价。他说原油已经突破了一个持续4年的“下降楔形”结构，长期下跌结束，新的上涨周期开始。他认为第一目标是120美元，如果霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭突破150美元也不是不可能。 第二，韩国股市是第一个被打击的市场 原因很简单，韩国能源高度依赖中东，大约70%的 石油 要通过霍尔木兹海峡。所以一旦运输受阻，韩国是最先受冲击的国家之一。如果危机扩大，其他市场也可能出现裂缝。现在可能只是第一块骨牌。 第三， 黄金 短期反而可能下跌 很多人会觉得战争会令黄金上涨。但Thorson给了一个比较复杂的判断——如果全球股市突然大跌，可能会发生流动性冲击，所有资产一起跌。历史上经常出现一种现象，市场崩盘初期，黄金也会下跌，之后才开始上涨。 注： 在2008年雷曼倒闭和2020年3月疫情初期，黄金都出现了10%-15%的快速回调。不是失去了避险价值，而是因为机构投资者的股票头寸由于大跌触及保证金，他们必须抛售手中盈利最丰厚、流动性最好的资产（通常是黄金）来补仓。 第四， 白银 需要守住70美元，否则可能回调到50-55区间。黄金则需要守住4850美元。 总体而言，Thorson认为未来几周市场很脆弱，可能发生三件事： 能源危机扩大； 股市出现系统性冲击； 流动性事件导致资产短期一起下跌。 短期黄金可能波动，但如果关键支撑守住，第二季度仍然有机会创历史新高。 如果霍尔木兹关闭时间越来越长，市场就会慢慢意识到这不是一次油价上涨，而可能是一场新的能源危机。而能源危机通常意味着：通胀、利率、股市和全球经济都会被重新定价。

格隆汇3月9日｜3月8日，小红书Super Intelligence团队推出图像编辑模型FireRed-Image-Edit-1.1，距其1.0版本发布不到一个月。据该团队介绍，该模型在处理ID一致性编辑、多元素融合、人像美妆、字体风格参考等方面大幅提升。同时，支持训练、部署优化全家桶，4.5s耗时、30GB显存。目前，该项目代码、技术报告、模型参数、训练蒸馏推理框架均已开源。

Ever-busy global pharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY 0.86%) had quite an active February. Since much of the news coming from it was positive, investors were largely bullish on its future, even after price cuts to its No. 1 drug kicked in. This optimism was reflected in a share price rise of over 13% over the month. Growth where it counts Near the start of February, Bristol Myers Squibb published its final earnings report for 2025. It managed to grow its fourth-quarter revenue, albeit modestly, by 1% year over year to $12.5 billion. We can't say the same for net income not under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which sank at a double-digit rate of almost 24% to $2.6 billion, or $1.26 per share. That sounds a bit scary, but it's the latest chapter in a story that's been playing out for the healthcare giant for some time. It still derives much of its coin from the so-called "legacy portfolio," its collection of medicines that have either hit their patent cliffs or are rapidly approaching them. This includes the above-mentioned drug, blood thinner Eliquis, the net profits for which are shared with the company's big pharma partner Pfizer. In the quarter, legacy's revenue dived by 15% to slightly more than $5.1 billion. The contrast with Bristol Myers Squibb's very promising "growth portfolio" of drugs that have some time before the cliff looms is stark. Led by blockbuster cancer drug Opdivo, growth's growth (sorry) for the quarter was 16%, rising to nearly $7.4 billion. Regardless, the company easily exceeded the consensus analyst estimates in the quarter. With the expected decline in the legacy portfolio baked into their forecasts, analysts on average projected revenue of slightly over $12.2 billion and non-GAAP (adjusted) net income of $1.12 per share. Another positive factor in Bristol Myers Squibb's earnings release was management's encouraging guidance. It believes it will post revenue of roughly $46 billion to $47.5 billion for the full...

格隆汇3月9日｜Wind数据显示，周一（3月9日），共有11家公司限售股解禁，合计解禁量为2.83亿股，按最新收盘价计算，合计解禁市值为188.64亿元。从解禁量来看，播恩集团、维峰电子、茂莱光学解禁量居前，解禁股数分别为1.05亿股、5937.5万股、3600.0万股。从解禁市值来看，茂莱光学、维峰电子、播恩集团解禁市值居前，解禁市值分别为121.6亿元、31.26亿元、15.22亿元。从解禁股数占总股本比例来看，茂莱光学、播恩集团、维峰电子解禁比例居前，解禁比例分别为68.18%、65.35%、54.03%。

格隆汇3月9日｜现货白银日内跌幅扩大至4%，跌至81美元/盎司下方。现货黄金向下跌破5050美元，日内下跌2.42%。现货钯金下跌超过3%，至每盎司1562.75美元。

Investors in mortgage lender UWM Holdings (UWMC 4.22%) had a February nearly as unpleasant as the weather that month. The company's shares lost a bit over 10% of their value in the short month, despite the company reporting record loan volumes in its fourth quarter. A major home financier UWM is the indirect parent company of Universal Wholesale Mortgage, which, as its name implies, provides mortgages to third-party sellers (mainly brokers). UWM controls the largest wholesaler, so its size and scope are considerable. The company posted its fourth-quarter and full-year results toward the end of the month, divulging that it originated $49.6 billion in home loans during the former period. This was up significantly from the $38.7 billion it earned in the same quarter of 2024. That filtered down to revenue of just over $945 million, for a robust year-over-year gain of 31%. As for profitability, net income not under generally accepted accounting practices (GAAP) zoomed nearly four times higher to more than $130 million, or $0.08 per share. Analysts were expecting a higher bottom-line bounce; however, their collective estimate for non-GAAP (adjusted) net income was $0.09 per share. On a brighter note, UWM beat on revenue, as the average prognosticator expectation for that line item was barely over $754 million. UWM benefited greatly from not one, but two cuts to the Federal Reserve's key interest rate during the quarter. This significantly ramped up refinancing volume, which almost doubled from both the previous and the year-ago quarters to $30.7 billion. Surges in key fundamentals didn't inspire UWM to boost its quarterly dividend. The company declared a $0.10 payout, which matches every one of its 20 previous disbursements. The new one is to be dispensed on April 9 to investors of record as of March 19. At least it's a high-yield dividend, paying out almost 10% at the most recent closing share price. Expand NYSE : UWMC UWM Holdings Today's Change ( -4.22 %) $ -0.17 Curre...

来源：华尔街情报圈 ——这种“大跌配大涨”的环境下，杠杆资金的强制平仓可能会引发下一波非理性的抛售浪潮。 伊朗局势升级，油价开盘（北京时间6:00）即破100美元，并且一度升至110美元——无数惊恐和错愕，全球市场像是失去了理性。 金融市场又走出了经典的“原油和美元上涨，其余一切下跌”的情景。不过这次的下跌是“大跌”，以此对应油价的大涨。 当前的势头并没有止步迹象，虽然油价有所回落，但美元和美债收益率仍旧在当日高点附近，而 黄金 和美股 期货 在当日最低点附近——这预示着情况可能变得更具挑战。韩国股市，可能面临新一轮大幅下跌。 目前市场恐慌了，但还没有进入完全恐慌阶段。因为很多交易员仍然在假设战争很快会降温，如果这个假设被打破，市场可能会进入第二阶段，那时候波动可能会明显放大。 形势看起来仍旧很严峻： 伊朗宣布，遇刺身亡的最高领袖哈梅内伊之子将接任其职位——在父亲遇刺、国家处于战争边缘时继位，他没有任何退让的空间，必须通过对外强硬来确立统治合法性。这意味着，短期内任何通过外交途径缓解“霍尔木兹海峡封锁”的希望几乎为零。 据《纽约时报》报道，美国已要求其外交官离开沙特——这等同于美国已经失去了对局势的控制权。 一方面，科威特和阿联酋等国已开始真正出现减产。另一方面， 石油 基础设施建设遭到破坏。 这一次的石油供应冲击，可能比过去两次著名的石油危机更严重。 · 1990年海湾战争：伊拉克入侵科威特，结果科威特石油出口几乎消失，伊拉克石油也被制裁，市场一下少了 大约400万桶/天的供应。油价在几个月内几乎翻倍，那是冷战结束后第一次真正的能源危机。 · 2022年俄乌战争：冲击更复杂，俄罗斯是全球最大的能源出口国之一。战争后发生了几件事：西方制裁俄罗斯石油、欧洲急着找替代能源、全球油轮运输路线被重构，油价一度冲到130美元。 这一次“这次可能更严重”，因为世界对中东石油依赖依然很高，全球五分之一的石油都从霍尔木兹海峡走。如果封锁持续，100美元可能只是起点，部分极端预测已看向130-150美元。 并且现在市场结构比以前更脆弱，杠杆非常多。一旦油价剧烈波动，可能触发强制平仓、流动性危机。所以一些分析师最近开始提一个词：系统性冲击。

低价、生食、商场餐饮的稀缺感，再加上社交平台持续放大的排队效应，让一批门店成了年轻人愿意花时间换一顿饭的地方。可对生食连锁来说，门外长队不是护身符。排队热度表明，消费者支付的不只有餐费，也包括等待时间；对生食连锁而言，等位热度并不能降低消费者对食材安全的要求。 寿司郎正处在这股热潮中央。它在不少城市成为商场里的排队标志，很多人愿意为一顿并不算昂贵的寿司，耗掉几个小时。与之形成强烈反差的是，排队三小时进入北京一间寿司郎门店的消费者，就餐时投诉称一片金枪鱼上发现异样白点。此事经由社交平台发酵，在极短时间内，将一家连锁餐饮公司推到风口浪尖。 01.一片金枪鱼上的白点 事情经过并不复杂。据《南方都市报》2026年3月5日题为《寿司郎吃出寄生虫卵？市监局立案调查，企业回应》一文报道，近日，一位北京的消费者在社交平台投诉，她于3月1日在知名日料连锁餐饮店寿司郎进餐，发现鱼片上有白色斑点。 关于“异物到底是什么”，门头沟区市场监督管理局2026年3月4日在“门头沟市场监管”公众号发布“情况通报”称，“针对市民反映‘自己在门头沟区长安天街商场寿司郎吃出金枪鱼寄生虫卵’问题，我局高度重视，第一时间组织执法人员到现场进行检查，对店内剩余的金枪鱼板块（赤身）进行证据保存，并开展立案调查。”该通报进一步指出，“市场监管部门将坚决维护消费者合法权益，依法严肃查处违法违规行为。” 图源：门头沟市场监管公众号 与此同时，“3月5日，寿司郎相关负责人向南都·湾财社记者表示，对于异物是否为寄生虫卵，企业仍在确认中，目前，企业正在配合北京市场监督局进行食品检测，等待结果出来。” 3月7日，寿司郎就此事表示：“公司内部对此事件也非常重视，正在配合市场监督局进行相关检查，一切等检查结果确认。寿司郎一直视食品安全为品牌的生命线，食材的采购、运输以及店内存储严格按照国家规定的食品安全标准执行。如发现异常，我们必将刻不容缓进行整改。” 暂且不论本次投诉的异物究竟是何物，仅就生食行业的普遍常识而言，生食水产的特殊处境，决定了这件事无法用“偶发异物”一笔带过。在由中央网信办指导，中国科协、卫生健康委、应急管理部和市场监管总局等部委主办的科学辟谣平台上，于2021年10月19日刊发《海鱼里也有寄生虫，处理不当吃了会生病》一文。文中指出，海洋水产包括鱼、软体动物等等，也可能会有寄生虫。其中最常见的能让人得病的，就是异尖...

“绿色化是制造业转型升级的重要方向，也是发展新质生产力、建设现代化产业体系的客观要求。”全国政协委员，中国宝武党委书记、董事长胡望明近日在接受证券时报记者专访时表示。他建议设立国家钢铁（850106）工业碳中和（885919）技术创新中心，加大低碳冶金技术研发，提升基础性、前沿性技术创新能力；加快构建统一的低碳排放钢标准体系，并将钢铁（850106）全产业链EPD平台上升为国家级公共服务平台。(人民财讯)

来源：华尔街情报圈 作者：阿拉斯代尔·麦克劳德（Alasdair Macleod），贵金属专家、Goldmoney研究主管。2025年7月金价还在3300美元盘整的时候，他预言“ 黄金 即将飙升1000美元”，三个月后金价准确无误的升至他预言的4300美元。 以下是 他本周接受媒体 采访 时的讲话，华尔街情报圈根据录音整理： 主持人：本周出现了大量剧烈波动的事件。看看整个世界，几乎什么东西都翻倍了，200美元的油价并不是疯狂的想法。如果这场战争继续拖下去，事情完全可能发展到这个程度。 历史上我们也见过类似情况，1970年代油价有两次巨大上涨： 第一次是在中东冲突时期，油价从3美元涨到11.65美元——涨幅约400%。 第二次是1979年在伊朗政权更替时期，油价从13美元涨到34美元。后来在1980年代初期，甚至一度涨到50美元。 Alastair MacLeod： 我一直在关注一个指标：黄金/ 石油 比率，用黄金来衡量的油价。 真正衡量商品价值的方法，不是用纸币，而是用黄金，因为纸币的信用一直在下降。如果用黄金来计算，今天的油价其实只有布雷顿森林体系崩溃前的大约20%。换句话说，石油的真实价值已经下降了80%，这简直荒谬地便宜。黄金长期购买力是稳定的，所以当石油、基础金属、 农产品 等商品用黄金计价都处在如此低的位置时，说明它们严重低估，最终会涨上去。 美国和以色列攻击伊朗，伊朗甚至不需要做太多动作， 保险 公司直接宣布不再为通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只提供保险。不仅油轮停了，连普通货船也停了。而这些船是向海湾国家运送粮食和生活物资的，所以现在整个贸易基本停止。 这不仅仅是霍尔木兹问题，在高加索地区也出现问题，阿塞拜疆有一条 管道 通过土耳其向以色列输送石油，提供以色列约60%的石油供应，伊朗现在也在切断这条线。另外也门胡塞武装可能会封锁红海，如果红海被封锁，苏伊士运河也等于失去作用。 这是一场巨大的能源冲击，这次能源危机可能比2022年更严重。 2022年俄乌战争后，油价上涨带来了严重通胀。当时美联储被迫大幅加息，美国30年期国债收益率从1.75%涨到5%以上。但这一次的冲击可能更大，油价会上涨很多， 天然气 价格会上涨，汽油价格会上涨，这是一个巨大的混乱。 但市场的反应仍然很小：股市只跌了一点，债券收益率只涨了一点——这远远不是这种级别冲击应该有的波动，真正的波动还没...

Operation Epic Fury - Déjà Vu Authored by Martin A. Perryman via RealClearDefense , In February, the Republican President, after conducting military operations against the government of a foreign power, appealed directly to the armed forces and to the citizens to rise and overthrow the regime. While this sounds ripped from Saturday’s headlines, it occurred in 1991, the President was George H. W. Bush, the foreign power was Iraq, and the encouragement was directed to the Kurdish population of the northern provinces. The Kurds answered the call, believing the regime was ripe for chang e. In March and April, the uncoordinated uprising, consisting of several disgruntled factions, enjoyed initial success but failed to consolidate and organize. The regime, still formidable, rebounded and crushed the rebellion, leaving tens of thousands dead and nearly two million displaced. The U.S., after encouraging the uprising, stood quietly by. While it is likely that the majority of U.S. citizens have long forgotten this incident, it is equally likely that the majority of the people in the Middle East have not. This past weekend, President Trump, in coordination with Israel, ordered military strikes on military and leadership targets at multiple sites in Iran. Reports have confirmed that the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed and there may be more leadership casualties in the wreckage. Like President Bush before him, he made a similar appeal to the Iranian military and people, once these initial strikes subside, to rise and overthrow the government. This is unlikely to happen. First, the Iranian regime is far from devastated. The 86-year-old Ayatollah most certainly had a succession plan in place, and the regime has a fairly deep bench. While the loss of critical leadership in its foreign proxies has dramatically limited its ability to conduct operations abroad, that does not hold true domestically. There are plenty of loyalists ready to fill any leadership ga...

文章提及标的 伦敦银 -- 现货白银失守81美元/盎司。

这两天，B站引发投资圈的热议和围观。 前日B站发布了2025年第四季度及全年财报。那一串数字不再像过去几年那样，带着刺眼的红色亏损预警，而是透着一股久违的、稳当的暖意： 全年营收303.5亿元，同比增长13%；调整后净利润25.9亿元 。 这是B站自2018年上市以来，首次实现全年盈利。 那个曾经被被质疑“长不大”的二次元社区，终于在2026年的春天，正式完成了它的“成人礼”。 回想几年前，提到B站，大家想到的关键词往往是“亏损”、“扩圈”、“去二次元化”。陈睿（B站董事长兼CEO）曾在多个场合表示，“盈利不是首要目标”（潜台词短期会亏损哈哈哈），那时候的B站，像是一个被宠坏的孩子，拿着投资人的钱，在社区里大兴土木，建花园、请戏班，唯独不怎么考虑怎么收门票。 市场耐心是有限的。随着互联网流量红利的见顶，资本市场不再相信“故事”，只相信“利润”。2024年，B站还录得经调整净亏损3900万元，虽然亏损大幅收窄，但那层窗户纸始终没捅破。 直到2025年。 这一年，B站像是突然换了个活法。不再盲目追求用户规模的野蛮增长，而是转头深耕用户的“含金量”。财报显示，2025年第四季度，B站日均活跃用户（DAU）达到1.13亿，月均活跃用户（MAU）达3.66亿。更重要的是， 日均使用时长提升至107分钟 。 这意味着什么？意味着用户不仅来了，还愿意留下来，并且待得更久了。而就在这107分钟里，广告主看到了机会，游戏厂商看到了玩家，大会员看到了独家内容。 25.9亿元的调整后净利润，不仅仅是一个数字，它是B站向市场递交的一份“投名状”：我不再是那个只会烧钱的少年，我学会了如何赚钱养家。 01解析B站的商业模式 很多人第一反应是：B站是不是靠裁员、砍项目才省出这20多亿的？ 确实，降本增效是基础。但如果你仔细翻阅财报，会发现B站的盈利更多来自于“开源”，尤其是广告业务的爆发式增长。 1. 广告业务：百亿级的新引擎 2025年，B站广告收入达到了 100.6亿元 ，同比增长23%，首次突破百亿大关。这在以往是不可想象的。过去，B站为了维护社区体验，对广告克制度极高，甚至承诺“永不加贴片广告”。 但现在，B站找到了一条中间道路： 原生广告与Story模式 。 你在刷B站竖屏视频（Story Mode）时，那些 seamlessly 融入信息流的广告，既不打断观看体验，又能精准触达用户。...

这两天，很多人的朋友圈又被同一个名字刷屏了——霍去病。 不是某部耗资过亿的大制作历史剧，也不是哪个流量小生的古装造型出圈。而是一部片长不到30分钟、据传制作成本不到3000元、由二十个人、熬了两个通宵“肝”出来的AI短剧。 这部片子我反复看了三遍。说实话，第一遍是带着审视的心态去找茬：AI做的，能好到哪去？ 但看完千军万马呼啸而过的场面，看到少年将军脸上那股子不驯的狠劲儿，看到尘土在光影里翻滚的质感，我脑子里冒出来的词，和网上那条高赞评论一模一样：“脊背发凉” 。虽然在人物表情上与真人表演，略显逊色，但整体看下来，已经非常惊艳了。 上线一个多月，有媒体统计，全网播放量突破5亿， 横扫海内外社交媒体 。更让业内破防的是，它的 创作者杨涵涵，既不是名导，也不是资深影视人，而是一个学音乐出身、之前卖热干面的前高校老师 。 今天咱们不聊情怀，就掰开揉碎了盘一盘：这部《霍去病》到底是怎么“杀”出来的？当AI真的开始“导戏”，影视圈那套沿用了几十年的生存法则，是不是到了该重写的时候？ 01 一场“违规”的降维打击 我们先还原一下这个让很多制片人夜不能寐的数据： 数据来源：公开信息 整理 看到这张表，你大概能理解为什么有人说这是“抢钱”。 过去我们拍古装战争戏，钱是怎么烧掉的？群众演员管盒饭、马匹租赁、安全防护、实景搭建、后期特效渲染……每一帧都是在烧钱。 而杨涵涵和她的团队是怎么干的？没用一台摄像机，没请一个群演，没出一天外景。 他们把战场“搬”进了360集团的 “纳米漫剧流水线” 。在这个被称作“虚拟片场”的系统里，他们给霍去病建立了专属角色库，确保那个一脸英气的少年将军不管在哪个镜头里都不“变脸”；他们用 “纳米空间引擎” 给千军万马画下了运动轨迹，士兵们冲锋陷阵却不会互相“穿模”。 这不是那种靠“抽卡”撞大运的AI创作。以前的AI视频，出个爆款画面像中彩票，镜头稍微一长人物就“崩”给你看，返工率高达70%以上 。而“纳米漫剧流水线”这种工业级平台，把分镜一次性通过率拉到了90%以上 。它不是在替创作者画画，而是在替创作者 “导戏” 。 02 从“手工作坊”到“数字流水线” 如果把《霍去病》的爆火看作一个信号弹，那么它照亮的，是一条已经铺好的路。 过去这一年，你可能明显感觉到，短视频平台上的“漫剧”越来越像真人了。这背后是一场无声的迁徙。 据DataEye报告，2025年国...

文章提及标的 伦敦金 -- 现货黄金失守5050美元/盎司，日内跌2.36%。

我有罪，我对不起大家，我也装了龙虾。 之前一直想试，但又一直没下手。 原因很简单，这东西要是单独买台 Mac mini，成本高了；扔到服务器上跑，我嫌麻烦；直接装进平时写稿、存资料、登各种账号的主力电脑里，我心里又发怵。 关键 AI 工具来来去去的，没朋友圈装B需求，技能点不点几个月后没区别，看别人折腾还省 token。 结果这几天，“上门安装龙虾”突然火得离谱，我反而有点兴趣了。 别人上门安装你得花钱，现在我自己装上那不就是挣钱？ 先说结论：能装，真没那么难。 我不是程序员，平时主要靠写稿吃饭，技术背景约等于没有。 晚上我找了个教程，边看边弄，哪里卡住了就去问 Gemini 和 GPT，前后个把小时，也就装好了。 过程中我遇到最大的坑，还不是龙虾自己的问题。 我临时买了个智谱的 coding plan lite。 龙虾设置完模型默认就是 GLM-5，但关键智谱只给 pro 和 max 用户开了 GLM-5 的权限，所以我这边就是各种 rate limit。 在自己装过一遍后，再看这两天那些新闻，味道就更有点不对了。 龙虾已经热到有点夸张。 3 月 7 日，鹏城实验室主任高文提到，马化腾前一天晚上都在说，没想到“龙虾”能火成这样。 3 月 8 日，周鸿祎也出来聊“养龙虾”，说这个概念很好，把原来云上那个摸不着的智能体，变成了电脑里自己的助手。 腾讯云 3 月 6 日干脆在深圳腾讯大厦北广场摆了个“龙虾安装站”，工程师现场免费帮人装，队伍排得很长。 QQ 甚至都赶上了趟，学习电报跟飞书，让用户能直接创建 QQ 机器人，把它绑进聊天入口。 大佬在聊，热搜在推，腾讯大厦都能现场免费装了，飞书和 QQ 也给你开好入口了，整个感觉就像在说：来吧，这东西已经熟了，可以下场了。你再不养一只，显得有点跟不上时代。 但我越看越觉得，真正吓人的地方，不是 OpenClaw 太能，也不是它太新，而是它已经被包装得太轻松了。 很多人现在提到 OpenClaw，脑子里想的还是更厉害一点的 ChatGPT。 好像无非就是一个更能干的助手，能帮你做更多事。 问题是，这玩意儿跟聊天机器人根本不是一回事。 聊天机器人大部分时间就是在屏幕里回你几句话，胡说八道也就算了。 OpenClaw 这种东西，是要往你的电脑里钻的。它要碰本地环境，要碰文件，要碰系统能力，还能接消息入口，等于你给自己设备里请进来一...

周一亚洲股票期货下滑，因为油价飙升带来的通胀脉搏可能会提高全球的生活成本，甚至利率，而投资者对流动性的渴求使美元受到追捧。 布伦特原油飙升15%，达到每桶106.94美元，上周已经飙升28%；美国原油上涨17%，达到每桶106.75美元，有可能推动汽油价格迅速飙升。 伊朗任命穆杰塔巴-哈梅内伊 （Mojtaba Khamenei） 接替其父 阿里 -哈梅内伊 （Ali Khamenei） 担任最高领导人，这表明强硬派在德黑兰与美国和以色列冲突一周后仍牢牢掌控着局势。 这不太可能受到美国总统特朗普的欢迎，他曾宣布这是 “不可接受的”。 由于没有迹象表明中东地区的敌对行动结束，油轮仍不敢穿越霍尔木兹海峡，投资者正为能源成本的长期上涨做好准备。 摩根大通 首席经济学家布鲁斯-卡斯曼（Bruce Kasman）指出：“全球经济仍然依赖于中东石油和天然气通过霍尔木兹海峡的集中流动。” 他补充说：“近期的情况是，石油价格短期内将飙升至120美元/桶，然后随着冲突很快平息而趋于缓和。”但如果没有明确而果断的政治解决方案，预计布伦特原油价格将在年中之前稳定在80美元/桶的高位。 卡斯曼说，这样的结果可能会使今年上半年全球经济年化增长率下降0.6%，消费者价格年率上升1%。 他警告说，更广泛和持续的冲突可能会使石油价格超过每桶120美元，并带来全球经济衰退的风险。 华尔街领跌，标普500指数期货下跌1.6%， 纳斯达克 指数期货跳水1.7%。 日本日经指数期货跌至52，400点，与上周五现金收盘价55，620点相比大幅下跌。 责任编辑：王永生

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来源：金十数据 随着穆杰塔巴被指定为伊朗新最高领袖，德黑兰用一场权力交接告诉华盛顿：对抗没有终局。作为革命卫队的首选人物、多年的“迷你最高领袖”，56岁的穆杰塔巴带着家仇国恨上台，将伊朗锁定在硬碰硬的轨道上。 伊朗宗教领导层选择对抗而非妥协，指定穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（Mojtaba Khamenei）接替其父亲阿里·哈梅内伊（Ali Khamenei）为新任最高领袖。地区官员称，此举是对美国总统特朗普的直接回击，特朗普此前曾宣称这位儿子“不可接受”。 目前战事已进入第二周。专家委员会指定穆杰塔巴为其继任者，将强硬派牢牢锁定在德黑兰的权力中心——这是一场可能重塑伊朗与美国及以色列战争格局，并波及中东以外地区的豪赌。 “让穆杰塔巴接班，完全是老一套。”中东研究所高级研究员亚历克斯·瓦坦卡（Alex Vatanka）表示，“这对美国来说是一次巨大的羞辱——发起如此大规模的军事行动，冒了这么大的风险，结果只是杀死了一位86岁老人，而他的位置立刻被其更为强硬的儿子取代。” 在伊朗复杂的神权政治体系中，最高领袖拥有最高权威，不仅掌管外交政策与伊朗核计划，也指导经选举产生的总统和议会的工作。 这一选择将伊朗推上进一步对抗的道路 分析人士称，选择穆杰塔巴——一位其妻子、母亲及其他家庭成员同样死于美以袭击的极端强硬派神职人员——发出了一个明确的信号：伊朗领导层已拒绝任何为保全现有体制而进行妥协的可能，认为除了对抗、复仇和坚忍之外，别无前路。 据知情人士透露， 穆杰塔巴将面临来自心怀不满的民众以及不断升级的冲突所带来的巨大内外压力，但预计他会迅速采取行动巩固权力。这可能意味着 伊斯兰 革命卫队的权力将进一步扩大，国内管控将更加严苛，并压制异见。 “世界将会怀念他父亲的时代。”一位接近德黑兰的地区官员对路透社表示，“穆杰塔巴别无选择，只能展示铁腕……即使战争结束，内部也将面临严厉打压。” 这一强硬姿态出现在持续数月、不断加深的国内动荡之后——这是自1979年 伊斯兰 革命以来最血腥的时期——在战争爆发前，动荡已经削弱了伊朗 伊斯兰 共和国的根基。伊朗当时正艰难应对经济疲软、恶性通胀、货币崩盘和贫困加剧，同时日益收紧的打压政策也激化了公众愤怒与抗议活动——在战时统治下，这些压力如今很可能进一步加剧。 前景黯淡的日子 另一位了解当地情况的伊朗内部人士表示，在穆杰塔巴领导下，未来将面临艰难时日：...

热点聚焦 1、在十四届全国人大四次会议经济主题记者会上，国家发展和改革委员会主任郑栅洁表示，集成电路、航空航天、生物医药等六大新兴支柱产业相关产值到2030年有望扩大到十万亿元以上；在集成电路、卫星互联网、国产大飞机、全国一体化算力网等领域，建设一批长链条、大体量重大项目，投资规模都在千亿级甚至万亿级；将深化“人工智能+”行动，“十五五”末人工智能相关产业规模将增长到10万亿元以上。 3、央行行长潘功胜表示，今年将灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具；中国没有必要也无意通过汇率贬值获取贸易竞争优势；实施好支持资本市场政策工具，支持中央汇金公司发挥类平准基金作用。此外，潘功胜还表示，央行将实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。 3、央行数据显示，2月末黄金储备报7422万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，1月末为7419万盎司，为连续第16个月增持黄金。 4、受战事影响，中东地区石油运输持续受阻，伊拉克、卡塔尔等主要产油国此前已宣布减产，国际油价涨幅持续扩大。WTI原油期货向上触及110美元/桶，最新报111.0美元/桶，日内上涨22.11%。布伦特原油期货向上触及110美元/桶，最新报110.263美元/桶，日内上涨18.96%。另据媒体报道，哈梅内伊之子已接任伊朗最高领袖。巴克莱称，如果中东局势再持续数周，布伦特原油有可能试探120美元/桶。 5、据《深圳证券交易所深港通业务实施办法》的有关规定，港股通标的证券名单发生调整并自2026年03月09日起生效。其中，调入先导智能、滴普科技、耀才证券金融、京东工业等，调出北京首都机场股份、神州控股、北京汽车、美的置业等。 环球市场 上周五，美股三大指数集体收跌，油价大幅飙升叠加弱于预期的就业数据，加剧了市场的担忧情绪。 截至收盘，道指跌幅为0.95%，纳指跌幅为1.59%，标普500指数跌幅为1.33%。大型科技股普跌，英特尔跌超5%，英伟达跌3%，亚马逊、特斯拉、Meta跌超2%。 热门中概股反弹走强，纳斯达克金龙中国指数初步收涨0.7%。京东涨6.1%，小米涨3%，美团、腾讯涨超2%，阿里巴巴涨0.4%。 港股方面，上周五三大指数集体反弹。恒生科技指数涨3.15%，恒生指数、国企指数分别上涨1.72%及2.09%。从盘面来看，生物医药、科网、机器人等板块轮番活跃，而有色金属与黄金股承压。 公司要闻 徽商银行(0...

Key Points Nvidia is set to see its strong growth continue as the GPU market leader. AMD has a huge opportunity in the data center CPU market. Micron is poised to continue to benefit from HBM demand. 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia › The prediction markets are booming, with people able to "bet" on anything from sports to geopolitical event outcomes on these platforms. However, while these products are technically futures contracts that fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, I wouldn't consider them a great investment vehicle. Instead, I'd recommend sticking with stocks. On that front, let's look at three artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to bet on right now. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » Nvidia If you want to invest in AI, you don't need to be cute and find some under-the-radar name no one has ever heard of before. In fact, buying the largest company in the world will suffice. That, of course, would be Nvidia(NASDAQ: NVDA), whose graphics processing units (GPUs) are the primary chips used to power AI workloads. Meanwhile, the company has grown to become the largest company in the world by having a wide moat that stems from its CUDA software platform. With AI infrastructure spending set to continue climbing higher, Nvidia is a great stock to continue to bet on. Advanced Micro Devices While a distant No. 2 to Nvidia in the GPU market, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ: AMD) looks poised to take some share following large deals with OpenAI and Meta Platforms, where the two companies will also take stakes in the chipmaker. Given its much smaller revenue base compared to Nvidia, these commitments should be a huge growth driver for the company, while it looks to continue to carve a niche in the fast-growing inference market. Not to be overlooked is ...

HandBrake 1.11 was released today as a major update to this free and open-source video transcoder application for converting between a multitude of video file formats. Coming six months after HandBrake 1.10.2, the HandBrake 1.11 release introduces an AMD VCN AV1 10-bit encoder, a ProRes encoder, a DNxHR encoder, an AV1 VCN 2160p 4K preset for AMD 9000 series GPUs and newer, Production DNxHR presets, Production ProRes presets, and Preservation FFV1 FLAC and PCM presets. HandBrake 1.11 also updates the Preservation FFV1 preset to pass through all supported audio codecs, adding Apple Lossless, PCM, and Vorbis to the pass-through list, adds support for encoding files to the MOV container format, and adds support for muxing FFV1 in the MP4 container. On top of that, this release improves AV1 in MP4 seeking on Apple software, properly tags Dolby Vision profile 5 videos with a color tag, adds PCM encoding and passthru, adds support for custom channels order, and adds support for properly handling the case in which the first chapter timestamp is not zero. For Linux users, HandBrake 1.11 adds buttons to cycle through previews on the summary page, adds an option to change the UI display language, improves the display of file sizes, adds support for using GtkFileLauncher to open files in sandboxed apps (e.g., Flatpak), and improves disk space checks. Under the hood, HandBrake 1.11 ships with many updated components, including AMF 1.5.0 (AMD VCN video encoding), FFmpeg 8.0.1, HarfBuzz 12.2.0, libdav1d 1.5.3, libdvdnav 7.0.0, libdvdread 7.0.1, libopus 1.6.1, libbluray 1.4.0, libjpeg-turbo 3.1.3, liblzma (xz) 5.8.2, libvpx 1.16.0, SVT-AV1 4.0.1, x265 r13309, and oneVPL 2.16.0. Check out the release notes on the project’s GitHub page for more details about the changes included in the HandBrake 1.11 release, which you can download from the same location as a Flatpak app that you can install on virtually any GNU/Linux distribution or a source tarball that you have to manually compil...

Key Points Nvidia is set to see its strong growth continue as the GPU market leader. AMD has a huge opportunity in the data center CPU market. Micron is poised to continue to benefit from HBM demand. 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia › The prediction markets are booming, with people able to "bet" on anything from sports to geopolitical event outcomes on these platforms. However, while these products are technically futures contracts that fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, I wouldn't consider them a great investment vehicle. Instead, I'd recommend sticking with stocks. On that front, let's look at three artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to bet on right now. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » Nvidia If you want to invest in AI, you don't need to be cute and find some under-the-radar name no one has ever heard of before. In fact, buying the largest company in the world will suffice. That, of course, would be Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), whose graphics processing units (GPUs) are the primary chips used to power AI workloads. Meanwhile, the company has grown to become the largest company in the world by having a wide moat that stems from its CUDA software platform. With AI infrastructure spending set to continue climbing higher, Nvidia is a great stock to continue to bet on. Advanced Micro Devices While a distant No. 2 to Nvidia in the GPU market, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) looks poised to take some share following large deals with OpenAI and Meta Platforms, where the two companies will also take stakes in the chipmaker. Given its much smaller revenue base compared to Nvidia, these commitments should be a huge growth driver for the company, while it looks to continue to carve a niche in the fast-growing inference market. Not to be overlooked i...

In my opinion, the market is sleeping on Michael Fiddelke, and that might be exactly the opportunity long-term investors are looking for. Target's (TGT +0.32%) new CEO unveiled a sweeping turnaround strategy at the company's annual financial community meeting in Minneapolis last week, and Wall Street responded by pushing the stock higher even amid a broader sell-off. But peel back the headline numbers, and you'll find a plan that is less about wishful optimism and more about a leader who intimately understands where this company went wrong.​ "Target is not an everything store. ..." Fiddelke's most revealing declaration was: "Target is not an everything store. That's not what guests want from us." That line signals a radical philosophical shift. For years, Target chased breadth, trying to compete with Walmart on groceries while simultaneously matching Amazon on convenience. Fiddelke is drawing a line in the sand. He is betting that Target can win by doing fewer things at an exceptional level, rather than doing everything at a mediocre level. That takes courage for a company with 2,000 stores and $105 billion in annual revenue. The home reset is overdue Cara Sylvester, Target's new chief merchandising officer, acknowledged what analysts have said for years: Target lost its "Tarzhay" magic in the home category of goods. The retailer's plan to overhaul 75% of its decorative accessories by June and revamp bedding by fall is aggressive, with furniture, mattresses, and rugs getting a full reimagining. Fiddelke himself admitted, "We used to be a pacesetter in home. We haven't been for the last few years." The honesty alone is refreshing. Expand NYSE : TGT Target Today's Change ( 0.32 %) $ 0.39 Current Price $ 120.75 Key Data Points Market Cap $55B Day's Range $ 117.11 - $ 120.75 52wk Range $ 83.44 - $ 126.00 Volume 239K Avg Vol 6.8M Gross Margin 25.44 % Dividend Yield 3.76 % Baby concierges and the family play Target is testing "baby concierges" in stores and expanding its ...

(RTTNews) - The Malaysia stock market has climbed higher in back-to-back sessions, gathering almost 10 points or 0.6 percent along the way. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index now rests just beneath the 1,670-point plateau although it may be stuck in neutral on Monday. The global forecast for the Asian markets is soft, with profit taking likely on the docket after strong gains late last week. The European markets were down and the U.S. bourses were mixed and little changed and the Asian markets are tipped to split the difference. The KLCI finished slightly higher on Friday following mixed performances from the financials, industrials, telecoms and plantations. For the day, the index perked 3.17 points or 0.19 percent to finish at 1,668.82 after trading between 1,668.48 and 1,674.04. Among the actives, Axiata slumped 1.19 percent, while Celcomdigi tanked 3.42 percent, CIMB Group jumped 1.81 percent, Genting sank 0.48 percent, IHH Healthcare dropped 0.70 percent, IOI Corporation fell 0.26 percent, Maxis retreated 2.00 percent, Maybank lost 0.38 percent, MISC rallied 0.98 percent, Petronas Chemicals tumbled 3.01 percent, PPB Group added 0.42 percent, Press Metal perked 0.20 percent, Public Bank collected 0.21 percent, QL Resources shed 0.42 percent, RHB Bank advanced 0.48 percent, Sime Darby skidded 0.84 percent, SD Guthrie spiked 2.16 percent, Sunway gained 0.23 percent, Telekom Malaysia climbed 0.60 percent, YTL Corporation surged 4.62 percent, YTL Power soared 4.08 percent and Genting Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur Kepong, Tenaga Nasional and MRDIY were unchanged. The lead from Wall Street offers little guidance as the major averages opened lower on Friday and largely stayed that way, although the Dow broke barely into the green by the session's end. The Dow added 38.16 points or 0.09 percent to finish at a record 42,063.36, while the NASDAQ slumped 65.68 points or 0.36 percent to close at 17,948.32 and the S7P 500 fell 11.09 points or 0.19 percent to end at 5,702.55. For the ...

Country Joe McDonald, anti-war singer who electrified Woodstock, dies at 84 toggle caption Mario Tama/Getty Images Country Joe McDonald, the singer-songwriter whose Vietnam War protest song became a signature anthem of the 1960s counterculture, has died at 84. McDonald died on Saturday in Berkeley, Calif., according to a statement released by a publicist. His health had recently declined due to Parkinson's disease. Born in 1942, in Washington, D.C., he grew up in El Monte, Calif., outside Los Angeles, according to a biography on his website. As a young man he served in the U.S. Navy before turning to writing and music during the early 1960s, eventually becoming involved in the political and cultural ferment of the Bay Area. Sponsor Message In 1965 he helped form the band Country Joe and the Fish in Berkeley. The group became part of the emerging San Francisco psychedelic music scene, blending folk traditions with electric rock and pointed political commentary. The band's best-known song, "I-Feel-Like-I'm-Fixin'-to-Die Rag," captured the growing anti-war sentiment of the Vietnam era. With its ragtime-influenced rhythm and sharply satirical lyrics about war and political leadership, the song quickly became associated with protests against the conflict. McDonald delivered the song to some half a million people at the 1969 Woodstock festival in upstate New York. Performing solo, he led the crowd in a form of call-and-response before launching into the anti-war anthem, turning the performance into one of the defining scenes of the festival. Country Joe and the Fish released several recordings during the late 1960s and toured widely, becoming closely identified with that era's West Coast rock and protest movements. McDonald later continued performing and recording as a solo artist, recording numerous albums across a career that spanned more than half a century. His work drew variously from folk, rock and blues traditions and often reflected his long-standing interest in p...

此前运营的两个巴拿马港口已遭巴拿马政府强制接管 【财新网】 中国香港富豪李嘉诚家族控制的长江和记实业（00001.HK，下称“长和”）官网发布声明，旗下公司Hutchison Ports PPC（PPC）此前运营的两个巴拿马港口因遭巴拿马政府强制接管，已根据国际商会仲裁规则，对巴拿马政府启动国际仲裁，索偿至少20亿美元。 这份巴拿马当地时间2026年3月6日发布的声明还强调，PPC与长和将寸步不让，亦非仅寻求象征性补偿，而是就巴拿马政府严重违约及反投资者行为，全数追索其应得的一切权益。

全英羽毛球公開賽，中華台北的林俊易首奪男單冠軍。 白衫的林俊易決賽面對首圈擊敗石宇奇、次圈淘汰伍家朗的申恩。開局強勢，連取三分，中段領先過14-9。首局從未落後之下先贏21-15。這位世界排名15的26歲球手，對上三次面對印度的申恩保持全勝。 中華台北過去只有戴資穎曾在全英公開賽勝出，今屆先有葉宏蔚、詹又蓁在混雙混冠，再有林俊易首奪男單冠軍。 他第二局「刁時」再贏22-20，直落封王。連同印度公開賽冠軍，今年兩度封王。賽後激動慶祝，把球衣、球拍丟上觀眾席。他的最新世界排名有機會升到世界第八。 女單決賽，粉紅衫、國家隊的王祉怡四強擊退山口茜，決賽面對南韓的世界「一姐」安洗瑩。首局中段連得5分，建立優勢，先贏21-15。已經五個多月無輸過的安洗瑩創下女單最長的36連勝，若勝出將追平林丹保持的37連勝，第二局最多領先過9-7，但15-16時連失3分。雖然化解三個決勝分，但最終都輸19-21。 王祉怡直落兩局稱后，終止面對安洗瑩的十連敗走勢，亦令對方衛冕失敗。