Jair Ferreira Belafacce/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I'm currently in the process of updating my theses and models for spirits, alcohol, and brewery businesses. I recently provided a rebased/recalculated model for Diageo ( DEO ), where I put a conservative share price but with an upside. In Ambev ( ABEV ), we ironically enough have a different thesis to look at. The company has outperformed a...
Jair Ferreira Belafacce/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I'm currently in the process of updating my theses and models for spirits, alcohol, and brewery businesses. I recently provided a rebased/recalculated model for Diageo ( DEO ), where I put a conservative share price but with an upside. In Ambev ( ABEV ), we ironically enough have a different thesis to look at. The company has outperformed as of late; in fact, it now trades at the premium P/E that Diageo once traded at , despite not only having lower fundamentals (BBB+ compared to A-) but also being a much more homogenous business in terms of its sales profile. This is interesting to me, which is why at this time I choose to use Ambev as another example for my updating of this sector. I will, in this article, focus on what makes Ambev a good company - why it may have outperformed, especially as of late, and what gives the company a risk consideration that you should look at. The company may have seen solid current results, but given its origins and capital structure, there are certain risk factors that should be considered that may speak against the current 18-20x P/E, even with a forecasted level of growth. I will also be looking at the company's relationship with Anheuser-Busch InBev ( BUD ), a company that I also cover. I'll look at both the company's conservative appeal in the case of a decline in sales trajectories, as well as an upside -and to be fair, the market seems to be currently estimating the company on the basis of upside (earnings growth). My thesis in this article is going to be a neutral or slightly bearish one for several reasons. First off, the overall high-level trends currently seen in drinking habits, which, while not as bad as some analysts are arguing, are certainly something to take into consideration. Secondly, the overall valuation, which I believe, as of the recent results reported yesterday, is slightly too positive for what's being given here. Ambev - Upside is Tricky to See Follo...
New Zealand is weighing the purchase of advanced warships from Japan or the UK to modernise its ageing fleet and bolster its defence capability. The South Pacific nation, member of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network alongside Australia, the US, the UK and Canada, is focused on Japanese Mogami-class or the UK’s Type 31 frigates. Discussions are under way with the Royal Australian Navy and t...
New Zealand is weighing the purchase of advanced warships from Japan or the UK to modernise its ageing fleet and bolster its defence capability. The South Pacific nation, member of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network alongside Australia, the US, the UK and Canada, is focused on Japanese Mogami-class or the UK’s Type 31 frigates. Discussions are under way with the Royal Australian Navy and the UK’s Royal Navy about the frigate replacement and ongoing service arrangements, Defence Minister...
Argentina, where the MV Hondius cruise departed, consistently ranked by WHO as having highest incidence of hantavirus in region Officials and experts in Argentina are scrambling to determine if their country is the source of a deadly hantavirus outbreak that has gripped an Atlantic cruise ship, amid reports that a number of passengers have already returned to their home countries. Argentina, where...
Argentina, where the MV Hondius cruise departed, consistently ranked by WHO as having highest incidence of hantavirus in region Officials and experts in Argentina are scrambling to determine if their country is the source of a deadly hantavirus outbreak that has gripped an Atlantic cruise ship, amid reports that a number of passengers have already returned to their home countries. Argentina, where the cruise to Antarctica departed, is consistently ranked by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having the highest incidence of the rare, rodent-borne disease in Latin America. Investigators there are working to contact trace the source of contamination. Continue reading...
Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) is a stock built to be owned for decades, because it sells the boring, essential consumables that keep American industry running, and it has quietly compounded capital through every cycle without ever asking for attention. The case for putting it in a retirement portfolio and leaving it alone rests on three pillars: a ... Fastenal (FAST): The Quiet Compounder Nobody Talks Ab...
Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) is a stock built to be owned for decades, because it sells the boring, essential consumables that keep American industry running, and it has quietly compounded capital through every cycle without ever asking for attention. The case for putting it in a retirement portfolio and leaving it alone rests on three pillars: a ... Fastenal (FAST): The Quiet Compounder Nobody Talks About Is a Buy-and-Hold-Forever Stock
Earnings Call Insights: Hyster-Yale (HY) Q1 2026 Management view “During the first quarter, bookings improved sequentially, increasing 7% from the fourth quarter as we moved from the cyclical low reached in the third quarter of 2025. Backlog increased modestly, although shipments have not yet reflected this improvement.” (Director of Investor Relations and Treasury Andrea Sejba) “Revenue declined ...
Earnings Call Insights: Hyster-Yale (HY) Q1 2026 Management view “During the first quarter, bookings improved sequentially, increasing 7% from the fourth quarter as we moved from the cyclical low reached in the third quarter of 2025. Backlog increased modestly, although shipments have not yet reflected this improvement.” (Director of Investor Relations and Treasury Andrea Sejba) “Revenue declined to $795 million, driven primarily by the normalization of excess backlog and a shift towards lighter-duty, lower-priced trucks. This shift reflects a broader and more persistent change in purchasing behavior.” (Director of Investor Relations and Treasury Sejba) “In the first quarter, we reported an adjusted operating loss of $26 million, which included approximately $30 million of gross tariff costs.” (Director of Investor Relations and Treasury Sejba) “Since Liberation Day in 2025, we have incurred approximately $130 million of direct tariff-related costs, excluding indirect effects such as supplier price increases and higher steel costs.” (President, CEO, Interim Principal Financial Officer & Director Rajiv Prasad) “Based on current conditions, we expect our effective tariff rate in 2026 to increase by approximately 6% compared with 2025.” (President, CEO, Interim Principal Financial Officer & Director Prasad) “We have applied for approximately $40 million related to previously paid IEEPA tariffs through the U.S. Customs and Border Protection tape process. We also plan to seek approximately $15 million to $20 million in reimbursements from suppliers.” (President, CEO, Interim Principal Financial Officer & Director Prasad) “Commercially launched in April, the Route Runner has already secured orders from several large beverage distributors.” (President, CEO, Interim Principal Financial Officer & Director Prasad) Outlook “Looking ahead, we expect 2026 to improve compared to 2025 with profitability in the second half of the year. We anticipate the second quarter to represent ...