People are worried about HPS liquidity “Private credit” means raising money from long-term locked-up investors and using their money to make loans to companies. The fact that the investors in private credit funds have their money locked up is not incidental; it is the point of private credit. Because the investors’ money is locked up: Private credit funds have a safe funding model . There cannot b...
People are worried about HPS liquidity “Private credit” means raising money from long-term locked-up investors and using their money to make loans to companies. The fact that the investors in private credit funds have their money locked up is not incidental; it is the point of private credit. Because the investors’ money is locked up: Private credit funds have a safe funding model . There cannot be a “run on the bank” where all the investors ask for their money back, forcing the funds to sell their loans at fire-sale prices, because the investors can’t ask for their money back. Private credit, in its simplest core implementation, is not systemically risky , because it is not vulnerable to runs. Because they have a safe funding model, private credit funds are much less regulated than banks. This keeps costs down and also lets them do stuff — like lend to companies at high leverage ratios — that banks are discouraged from doing . (It also helps with recruiting: Banks are boring, but private credit these days is where the action is, and pays well.) Because their money is locked up and committed, private credit funds can be more attractive lenders to companies. They can move faster and be more flexible than banks, whose balance sheets are fragile and who have to market and syndicate many loans. They can promise to hold loans for the long term , to be relationship lenders rather than transactional financiers. Some companies like this sort of thing, and are willing to take the tradeoff, which is that private credit is normally more expensive than other forms of credit. Put another way, the expected return on private credit lending should be higher, because private credit funds get paid an illiquidity premium . Everything about private credit — its systemic safety, its light regulation, its go-anywhere investing approach, its high returns — flows from the fact that the investors can’t get their money back whenever they want. Traditionally, the long-term locked-up investors...
Commodities have been a notable area of strength year to date, and with U.S. equities in a corrective phase, it can be beneficial to broaden exposure to alternative assets with improving long-term momentum. The energy complex qualifies, but we also encourage investors to consider agricultural commodities, several of which have positive technical catalysts. The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) is ...
Commodities have been a notable area of strength year to date, and with U.S. equities in a corrective phase, it can be beneficial to broaden exposure to alternative assets with improving long-term momentum. The energy complex qualifies, but we also encourage investors to consider agricultural commodities, several of which have positive technical catalysts. The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) is a popular way to gain exposure, holding futures contracts tied to corn, soybeans, wheat and other agricultural commodities. DBA has broken out from a one-year triangle pattern, marking a resumption of its secular uptrend in a bullish long-term development. Intermediate-term momentum has accelerated with the breakout, which supports upside follow-through beyond last year's peak. The triangle breakout generates a long-term measured move projection near $29.30, approximately 9% above current levels. The chart of DBA does not appear overextended in the near term, suggesting the triangle breakout is actionable. Short-term momentum is positive and expanding per the daily moving average convergence/divergence histogram, and the daily stochastics have turned higher in a bullish "pop" that supports upside follow-through in the near term. For short-term traders, an upside objective is resistance at the 2025 high, near $27.50. To manage risk, we would reduce long positions if DBA falls back below former trendline resistance near $26.00. The ratio of DBA to the SPX has reversed a multi-month downtrend, suggesting DBA's recent outperformance versus the SPX reflects a meaningful shift in relative momentum. The trend shift in the ratio supports further outperformance for DBA, and agricultural commodities in general, over the SPX. This is not unusual during a corrective phase in equities. Overall, DBA's breakout from a one-year triangle acts as a positive technical catalyst and aligns with strengthening momentum in commodities more broadly. We expect DBA to remain a beneficiary of rotation...
BlackJack3D/E+ via Getty Images The Microsoft-backed ( MSFT ) OpenAI ( OPENAI ) revealed plans today to acquire Promptfoo, a startup that helps enterprises identify and correct vulnerabilities during the development of artificial intelligence systems. Promptfoo was founded in 2024 by Ian Webster and Michael D'Angelo in San Francisco. Despite its recent founding, it discovered a niche in providing ...
BlackJack3D/E+ via Getty Images The Microsoft-backed ( MSFT ) OpenAI ( OPENAI ) revealed plans today to acquire Promptfoo, a startup that helps enterprises identify and correct vulnerabilities during the development of artificial intelligence systems. Promptfoo was founded in 2024 by Ian Webster and Michael D'Angelo in San Francisco. Despite its recent founding, it discovered a niche in providing security tooling for AI systems. It said more than 125,000 developers have downloaded their open-source tools, and they are currently being used by more than 25% of Fortune 500 companies. Promptfoo raised an $18.4 million Series A led by Insight Partners last July, with participation from Andreessen Horowitz. "Promptfoo brings deep engineering expertise in evaluating, securing, and testing AI systems at enterprise scale," said Srinivas Narayanan, OpenAI's Chief Technology Officer of B2B Applications. "Their work helps businesses deploy secure and reliable AI applications, and we’re excited to bring these capabilities directly into Frontier." OpenAI plans to integrate several of Promptfoo's tools into OpenAI Frontier, a platform for building and operating AI agents. This includes security and safety testing built into the platform, security and evaluation in development workflows, and improved oversight and accountability. "We started Promptfoo because developers needed a practical way to secure AI systems," Webster said. "As AI agents become more connected to real data and systems, securing and validating them is more challenging and important than ever. Joining OpenAI lets us accelerate this work, bringing stronger security, safety, and governance capabilities to the teams building real-world AI systems." Financial details of the proposed acquisition were not released. Before founding Promptfoo, Webster led the large language model engineering and developer platform teams at Discord. D'Angelo formerly worked as the former vice president of engineering and head of AI at Smi...
EschCollection/DigitalVision via Getty Images Two US banks posted double-digit percentage growth in assets on a sequential basis in the fourth quarter of 2025, causing a shake-up in the US banking industry asset rankings. Banco Santander SA ( SAN ) on Feb. 3 announced its $12.23 billion agreement to acquire Webster Financial Corp. ( WBS ), marking the third-biggest US bank deal since 2010 and Sant...
EschCollection/DigitalVision via Getty Images Two US banks posted double-digit percentage growth in assets on a sequential basis in the fourth quarter of 2025, causing a shake-up in the US banking industry asset rankings. Banco Santander SA ( SAN ) on Feb. 3 announced its $12.23 billion agreement to acquire Webster Financial Corp. ( WBS ), marking the third-biggest US bank deal since 2010 and Santander's first US retail bank acquisition in roughly 17 years . For the purposes of an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis, Santander Holdings USA Inc.'s assets were adjusted upward by $84.07 billion to account for its parent company’s pending acquisition, resulting in a 47.9% increase in assets compared to the third quarter. As a result, Santander Holdings USA rose to the 19th-largest US bank by total assets in the fourth quarter, up from 30th in the prior quarter. SoFi Technologies Inc.'s ( SOFI ) total assets rose 11.8% sequentially in the fourth quarter, representing the second-highest growth rate among the nation's 50 largest banks and propelling the company into the fourth quarter rankings. The increase was driven by $3.1 billion in loan growth and about $1.7 billion in additional cash, cash equivalents, and investment securities, SoFi CFO Christopher Lapointe disclosed in a January earnings call. As of Dec. 31, 2025, the 50 largest US banks had a combined $25.580 trillion in assets, according to Market Intelligence data. In the most recent quarter, the 50 largest US banks reported a $186.20 billion increase in assets, with 38 institutions posting growth. In contrast, during the fourth quarter of 2024, the 50 largest US banks at that time saw their combined assets fall by $436.75 billion, with most of that decline — $347.46 billion — concentrated at the three biggest banks: JPMorgan Chase & Co. ( JPM ), Bank of America Corp. ( BAC ) and Citigroup Inc. ( C ). Big 4 banks' combined assets decrease Aggregate assets of the four largest US banks declined sequentially by...
February 2026 confirms that the US smartphone market has settled into a high-volume, highly repeatable promotional equilibrium where the “deal” is no longer a seasonal tactic but a core sales system. Across AT&T, T‑Mobile, Verizon, Spectrum Mobile, and Xfinity Mobile, GlobalData tracked 724 new smartphone promotions across 11 distinct promotion types, with trade-in (for both upgrades and new lines...
February 2026 confirms that the US smartphone market has settled into a high-volume, highly repeatable promotional equilibrium where the “deal” is no longer a seasonal tactic but a core sales system. Across AT&T, T‑Mobile, Verizon, Spectrum Mobile, and Xfinity Mobile, GlobalData tracked 724 new smartphone promotions across 11 distinct promotion types, with trade-in (for both upgrades and new lines) and bundle offers dominating the mix. Verizon (289 offers), AT&T (186), and T‑Mobile (164) collectively set the pace, while Samsung and Apple absorbed the bulk of subsidy attention, accounting for roughly 473 and 199 offers, respectively. Carriers promote premium plan adoption and bundles Verizon’s approach was the clearest expression of “premium-plan monetisation via flagship demand.” Its promotions scale sharply by unlimited tier, with the richest credits reserved for Verizon Unlimited Ultimate, followed by Unlimited Plus, while Unlimited Welcome remains a lower-incentive entry ramp. The Samsung Galaxy S26 series launch was the anchor: the Samsung S26 Ultra reached up to $1,300 for eligible trade-in upgrades on Ultimate, while new-line credits remained substantial across tiers. This structure is effective at driving ARPU and reducing churn by rewarding upgrades, but it also increases consumer decision complexity and pushes value-sensitive customers toward either new-line options or lower tiers with materially weaker savings. Verizon is winning on volume and device visibility, but risks perception of “strings-attached” value if the offer ladder becomes too opaque. AT&T’s promotional stance was more measured and operationalised—less about flash and more about consistency. With emphasis on bundle deals, trade-in, and upgrade-with-trade-in mechanics, AT&T signalled a “steady-state” model intended to support retention and predictable gross adds. Its Samsung Galaxy S26 offers (up to $1,300 / $1,100 / $900 with trade-in on AT&T Unlimited Starter SL) were competitive, and the t...
Barring economic calamities comparable to the Great Depression or the global financial crisis, high-net-worth individuals don't dramatically alter their spending habits as the rest of us do. Garden-variety recessions, while painful for the middle class, typically don't dent affluent folks' desire for high-end items, travel, and the like. Given that the wealthy are, well, wealthy and that the U.S. ...
Barring economic calamities comparable to the Great Depression or the global financial crisis, high-net-worth individuals don't dramatically alter their spending habits as the rest of us do. Garden-variety recessions, while painful for the middle class, typically don't dent affluent folks' desire for high-end items, travel, and the like. Given that the wealthy are, well, wealthy and that the U.S. economy is growing, statistically speaking, Ferrari (RACE 2.21%) should be a prime example of a consumer cyclical winner. Yet shares of the Italian sports car manufacturer are off 21% over the past year. That sounds even worse, given that a bear market is defined as a decline of 20% from a stock's most recent high. Bear markets are unsettling, but those conditions can also nurture opportunity. Perhaps Ferrari management concurs, as the company has repurchased over $117 million of its shares since the start of this year. That's one sign that the opportunity may be knocking with this stock, and there are more to evaluate. Ferrari stock can accelerate While this is widely discussed with Ferrari, investors shouldn't discount the aura of exclusivity and the country club vibe, which are integral to the investment thesis. Average selling prices on new Ferraris range from $250,000 to $700,000-plus. In many parts of the U.S., those are home values. That's by design. Ferrari isn't Ford Motor Company or Tesla. It's not attempting to sell large numbers of automobiles. In fact, in its roughly 11 years as a publicly traded company, Ferrari's unit sales per model year have been relatively steady at around 1,000. From another perspective, the company is engaging in population containment. More Ferraris on the road diminishes the air of exclusivity, potentially damaging the fundamental case for the stock. Is it arguably tacky that buyers can access select Ferrari models only through invitation? Perhaps, but between that and the company's pricing power and its quality-over-quantity business ...
Key Points Ferrari stock has a flat tire, but it’s still one of the more attractive automotive growth stories. Key to the luxury carmaker's success is the strict limit it places on vehicle production. A recent earnings beat suggests there’s still plenty of gas left in the tank. 10 stocks we like better than Ferrari › Barring economic calamities comparable to the Great Depression or the global fina...
Key Points Ferrari stock has a flat tire, but it’s still one of the more attractive automotive growth stories. Key to the luxury carmaker's success is the strict limit it places on vehicle production. A recent earnings beat suggests there’s still plenty of gas left in the tank. 10 stocks we like better than Ferrari › Barring economic calamities comparable to the Great Depression or the global financial crisis, high-net-worth individuals don't dramatically alter their spending habits as the rest of us do. Garden-variety recessions, while painful for the middle class, typically don't dent affluent folks' desire for high-end items, travel, and the like. Given that the wealthy are, well, wealthy and that the U.S. economy is growing, statistically speaking, Ferrari (NYSE: RACE) should be a prime example of a consumer cyclical winner. Yet shares of the Italian sports car manufacturer are off 21% over the past year. That sounds even worse, given that a bear market is defined as a decline of 20% from a stock's most recent high. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » Bear markets are unsettling, but those conditions can also nurture opportunity. Perhaps Ferrari management concurs, as the company has repurchased over $117 million of its shares since the start of this year. That's one sign that the opportunity may be knocking with this stock, and there are more to evaluate. Ferrari stock can accelerate While this is widely discussed with Ferrari, investors shouldn't discount the aura of exclusivity and the country club vibe, which are integral to the investment thesis. Average selling prices on new Ferraris range from $250,000 to $700,000-plus. In many parts of the U.S., those are home values. That's by design. Ferrari isn't Ford Motor Company or Tesla. It's not attempting to sell large numbers of a...
Pentagon, FAA Will Conduct Anti-Drone Laser Tests In New Mexico Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times, The Pentagon and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) agreed to conduct an anti-drone “high-energy laser test” in New Mexico over the weekend. The announcement comes a little more than a week after the FAA had to suddenly close airspace around Fort Hancock, Texas, because of what the ag...
Pentagon, FAA Will Conduct Anti-Drone Laser Tests In New Mexico Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times, The Pentagon and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) agreed to conduct an anti-drone “high-energy laser test” in New Mexico over the weekend. The announcement comes a little more than a week after the FAA had to suddenly close airspace around Fort Hancock, Texas, because of what the agency at the time called “special security reasons.” The Department of War (DOW) shot what it thought was a “seemingly threatening” drone flying within military airspace, the Pentagon, the FAA, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said in a joint statement at the time. A House committee stated that the FAA’s closure resulted from the Pentagon using a “high risk counter-unmanned aircraft system” to shoot down a CBP drone operating near the U.S.–Mexico border. The incident, along with another Pentagon drone incursion the same month, faced criticism in Congress. Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), the ranking Democrat member on the Senate Aviation Subcommittee, called for an independent investigation into the incidents. Following congressional pushback, the Pentagon is now conducting anti-drone tests at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico alongside its partners at the FAA. On March 6, the U.S. military stated that its Joint Interagency Task Force 401 and the FAA will conduct a “high-energy laser test” from March 7 through March 8. “This upcoming event will specifically address FAA safety concerns while gathering data about the laser’s material effects on aircraft surrogates, validating the functionality of automated safety shut-off systems, and informing analyses for aircrew eye safety,” the Pentagon said in a statement . The military stated that the test is part of a “long-term, multi-year partnership” between it and the FAA to ensure that counter-drone technology is “safely integrated into the national airspace.” It’s a continuation of previous military testing done over th...
marketlan/iStock via Getty Images We currently recommend a 60% allocation in stocks out of a maximum of 70% and are looking to increase it once we get a signal from the ST-MSI. To avoid any confusion, we want to state our time frame of interest. “The Sentiment King is long-term oriented (bull and bear markets). We practice dynamic allocation, adjusting the percents in bonds, stocks, and gold if ou...
marketlan/iStock via Getty Images We currently recommend a 60% allocation in stocks out of a maximum of 70% and are looking to increase it once we get a signal from the ST-MSI. To avoid any confusion, we want to state our time frame of interest. “The Sentiment King is long-term oriented (bull and bear markets). We practice dynamic allocation, adjusting the percents in bonds, stocks, and gold if our intermediate-term sentiment indicators suggest it. We have no interest in the short term, except as it can help understand intermediate and long-term trends. The intermediate term is from three to nine months. In our world, one month is short-term.” What Is The ST-MSI? The ST-MSI is a combination sentiment indicator. When measuring investor sentiment, one looks for extreme degrees of bullish or bearish expectations. No one indicator is best since investor sentiment can show up in different ways in different types of markets. That’s why we use a combination of indicators. The last time we referenced the ST-MSI was in this May 2025 article (our green zone buy signal of April 7th is rapidly winding down) a month and a half after it pinpointed the April 7th low. The ST-MSI is made from seven indicators that measure investor expectations over the intermediate term. It's a contrary opinion indicator. It's bullish when too many investors become bearish, and vice versa. This chart graphs the ST-MSI against the S&P 500 from 2020 to February. Extreme sentiment shows up as either a Red or Green Zone reading. These represent historic extremes. The ST-MSI is a composite indicator made by combining seven, well-tested sentiment indicators into one. It is designed to measure investor sentiment for the intermediate term. It's a contrary opinion indicator. Unlike the MSI, which is updated weekly, the ST-MSI is updated daily. This allows for the daily oversight needed to forecast intermediate-term movements. (The Sentiment King) Green Zone readings have a good record of indicating the start...
What happened In a quarterly disclosure filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC filing) on Feb. 17, 2026, BDT Capital Partners reported acquiring 140,751,696 shares of Alliance Laundry Holdings (ALH +1.08%). This new position was established with an estimated transaction value of $2.86 billion, based on the average closing price during the quarter. The quarter-end value of the ...
What happened In a quarterly disclosure filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC filing) on Feb. 17, 2026, BDT Capital Partners reported acquiring 140,751,696 shares of Alliance Laundry Holdings (ALH +1.08%). This new position was established with an estimated transaction value of $2.86 billion, based on the average closing price during the quarter. The quarter-end value of the stake also totaled $2.86 billion, reflecting both the share accumulation and any price changes over the period. What else to know This was a new position for BDT Capital Partners; the ALH stake represented 90.17% of the fund’s reported U.S. equity assets as of Dec. 31, 2025 Top holdings after the filing: Alliance Laundry: $2.86 billion (90.2% of AUM) Under Armour : $312.24 million (9.8% of AUM) Cibus : $110,333 (0.0% of AUM) As of March 6, 2026, ALH shares were trading at $20.76, down 6% from its October 2025 IPO price. Company overview Metric Value Price (as of market close 2026-03-09) $20.76 Market Capitalization $4.28 billion Revenue (TTM) $1.62 billion Net Income (TTM) $118.22 million Company snapshot Alliance Laundry: Designs, manufactures, and sells commercial laundry washers, dryers, service parts, digital products, and customer financing solutions. Generates revenue through equipment sales, parts, and value-added services distributed via a network of distributors and direct channels. Serves healthcare facilities, hotels, laundromats, communal laundry sites, fire stations, and other commercial customers in North America and internationally. Alliance Laundry Holdings is a leading provider of commercial laundry equipment and related services, with a diversified product portfolio and a broad customer base. The company leverages a network of distributors and direct sales to reach institutional and commercial clients. Its established market presence positions it as a key player in the commercial laundry industry. What this transaction means for investors This recent discl...
xbrchx/iStock via Getty Images I covered Elbit Systems ( ESLT ) with a hold rating and a $520.53 base case price target and a $599.31 optimistic price target. However, on the prospects of increasing U.S. defense budgets and increasing tension in the Middle East, the stock price has increased over 80%. So, the narrative change had a big impact on the stock price. With the information and prospects ...
xbrchx/iStock via Getty Images I covered Elbit Systems ( ESLT ) with a hold rating and a $520.53 base case price target and a $599.31 optimistic price target. However, on the prospects of increasing U.S. defense budgets and increasing tension in the Middle East, the stock price has increased over 80%. So, the narrative change had a big impact on the stock price. With the information and prospects available at the time of my hold rating, I do not feel like the call itself was bad, but the change in the investment narrative obviously has driven extremely strong performance. In this report, I discuss why the war in Iran offers tangible upside within our forecast window driven by higher spending and a substantially higher valuation multiple. Growth Narrative Shifts Back To Middle East During the Q3 2025 earnings call , management indicated that the growth narrative for Elbit Systems would shift from Israel to international sales and predominantly Europe: We are targeting around flattish backlog in Israel and growth outside of Israel, predominantly in Europe. That will be the growth area, which -- we see our funnel, we see our opportunities, and we see the demand that's coming out from Europe. And we think that this is the place that predominantly will provide the growth in the future in the backlog. The assessment of the price target was driven by this shift. However, the war in Iran has obviously reverted this narrative back to growth predominantly coming from the Middle East in what I would call the largest escalation in decades. It is not just a shift in sentiment, as the Israeli government has authorized an addition of 9 billion shekels, or nearly $2.9 billion, to this year’s defense budget. So, there is upside to earnings backed by an increase in this year’s defense budget, and depending on how long the conflict and tension remain, there is also upside in future year budgets. The risk for Elbit would be its ability to meet demand. In the prior war in Gaza, we saw t...
Image source: The Motley Fool. Monday, March 9, 2026 at 12 p.m. ET CALL PARTICIPANTS Chief Executive Officer — Gary Burnison Chief Financial Officer — Robert Rozek Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst? Email [email protected] TAKEAWAYS Consolidated Fee Revenue -- $717 million, up 7%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of accelerating year-over-year growth. -- $717 million, up 7%, marking the...
Image source: The Motley Fool. Monday, March 9, 2026 at 12 p.m. ET CALL PARTICIPANTS Chief Executive Officer — Gary Burnison Chief Financial Officer — Robert Rozek Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst? Email [email protected] TAKEAWAYS Consolidated Fee Revenue -- $717 million, up 7%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of accelerating year-over-year growth. -- $717 million, up 7%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of accelerating year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA -- $123 million, an increase of $9 million or 7.5%, with a margin of 17.2%, up 10 basis points. -- $123 million, an increase of $9 million or 7.5%, with a margin of 17.2%, up 10 basis points. Adjusted Diluted EPS -- $1.28, up $0.09 or 8%. -- $1.28, up $0.09 or 8%. Total Company New Business (Ex-RPO) -- Up 11%; Consulting and Digital segments hit all-time quarterly highs. -- Up 11%; Consulting and Digital segments hit all-time quarterly highs. RPO New Business -- $54 million, with 78% from new clients and 22% from renewals. -- $54 million, with 78% from new clients and 22% from renewals. Remaining Fees Under Contract -- $1.85 billion at quarter end, up 11%; approximately 60% ($1.1 billion) due to be recognized within the next year and 40% ($734 million) beyond four quarters. -- $1.85 billion at quarter end, up 11%; approximately 60% ($1.1 billion) due to be recognized within the next year and 40% ($734 million) beyond four quarters. Capital Return and Investment -- $113 million returned to shareholders via buybacks and dividends; $64 million invested in capital expenditures, focused on Talent Suite, productivity tools, and product enhancements. -- $113 million returned to shareholders via buybacks and dividends; $64 million invested in capital expenditures, focused on Talent Suite, productivity tools, and product enhancements. Dividend Increase -- Board approved a 15% rise, setting the quarterly cash dividend at $0.55 per share, the seventh increase in six years. -- Board approved a 15% rise, s...
SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images CVR Partners Stock: Why It's a Buy Data by YCharts The war in Iran has changed the investment case entirely for fertilizer stocks, including CVR Partners ( UAN ). Around 30% of globally traded urea transits the Strait of Hormuz. QatarEnergy halted urea and ammonia production at Ras Laffan following Iranian drone strikes. Urea prices have jumped roughly $70–$80/ton s...
SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images CVR Partners Stock: Why It's a Buy Data by YCharts The war in Iran has changed the investment case entirely for fertilizer stocks, including CVR Partners ( UAN ). Around 30% of globally traded urea transits the Strait of Hormuz. QatarEnergy halted urea and ammonia production at Ras Laffan following Iranian drone strikes. Urea prices have jumped roughly $70–$80/ton since the conflict began. CVR operates entirely in the U.S., with plants in Coffeyville, Kansas, and East Dubuque, Illinois, and it stands to benefit directly from the recent price surge. At a unit price of roughly $125 (as of writing on March 7) and an estimated forward annual distribution of $16 (my estimate for 2026, assuming ~$4/unit per quarter and spot prices), this implies a forward yield of approximately 13%, although this could end up being conservative if fertilizer prices keep rising. Remember that back in 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict drove similar supply shocks, CVR paid out $26.62 for the full year. View that as an upside case for 2026. Either way, I view the stock as a smart BUY here. Q4 That Looks Worse Than It Is CVR Partners posted a big loss in Q4. (CVR Partners) I’ll be honest: When I first saw CVR Partners’ Q4 numbers, I wasn't thrilled. Net loss of $10 million. Distribution of $0.37 per unit. The kind of earnings report makes it look like it's time to sell the stock, not buy more shares. Then I read the explanation: The Coffeyville plant went through a planned 32-day turnaround in Q4. That’s not a surprise, as management has telegraphed it for several quarters. What was a surprise, I think, was the three-week delay in restarting, caused by issues at a third-party air separation unit the plant depends on. CEO Mark Pytosh was blunt about it on the Q4 earnings call : the delay reduced production volumes meaningfully and drove direct operating expenses to $81 million for the quarter, including $14 million of turnaround costs. Pull back from the qua...