Alger Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager Ankur Crawford discusses an insatiable demand for AI computing, gold, and a "directionless" and "choppy" market. She talks with Romaine Bostick and Katie Greifeld on "The Close." (Source: Bloomberg)
Alger Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager Ankur Crawford discusses an insatiable demand for AI computing, gold, and a "directionless" and "choppy" market. She talks with Romaine Bostick and Katie Greifeld on "The Close." (Source: Bloomberg)
Key Points RiverNorth Capital Management added 1,197,230 shares in Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund Quarter-end UTF position value increased by $28.87 million, reflecting both new shares and price effects This represented a 1.36% change in reportable AUM Fund held 1,197,230 shares of UTF, valued at $28.87 million as of year-end New UTF stake places it outside the fund's top five holdings 10 stoc...
Key Points RiverNorth Capital Management added 1,197,230 shares in Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund Quarter-end UTF position value increased by $28.87 million, reflecting both new shares and price effects This represented a 1.36% change in reportable AUM Fund held 1,197,230 shares of UTF, valued at $28.87 million as of year-end New UTF stake places it outside the fund's top five holdings 10 stocks we like better than Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund › What happened According to a February 17, 2026, SEC filing, RiverNorth Capital Management, LLC established a new position in Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund (NYSE:UTF), by acquiring 1,197,230 shares during the fourth quarter of 2025. The quarter-end value of the UTF stake likewise stood at $28.87 million. What else to know This was a new position, representing 1.36% of the fund’s $2.12 billion reportable assets under management at year-end. Top five holdings after the filing: NYSE:VKQ: $55.67 million (2.6% of AUM) NYSE:PDI: $49.97 million (2.4% of AUM) NYSE:MHD: $48.98 million (2.3% of AUM) NYSE:MYD: $48.31 million (2.3% of AUM) NYSE:BLE: $41.19 million (2.0% of AUM) As of February 17, 2026, shares of UTF were priced at $26.68, up 17.1% over the past year, with a one-year alpha of 5.2 percentage points versus the S&P 500. The position’s dividend yield stood at 7.0% as of February 18, 2026, and shares were 2.1% below their 52-week high. Company Overview Metric Value Market Capitalization $2.53 billion Revenue (TTM) $138.64 million Net Income (TTM) $274.27 million Dividend Yield 7.1 % Company Snapshot Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund, Inc. is a closed-end fund specializing in listed infrastructure equities, managed by Cohen & Steers Capital Management. The fund leverages fundamental analysis to select value-oriented infrastructure stocks, aiming to deliver both income and capital growth. Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund, Inc invests primarily in public equities of infrastructure companies, focusing on value st...
Mark Renders/Getty Images News ArcelorMittal ( MT ) turns positive late in Monday's trading after declining as much as 6.5% earlier, as J.P. Morgan analysts said European mining and steel companies could suffer as the Middle East conflict dampens the continent's growth outlook and threatens to push interest rates higher. As a result, J.P. Morgan's Dominic O'Kane downgraded ArcelorMittal ( MT ), An...
Mark Renders/Getty Images News ArcelorMittal ( MT ) turns positive late in Monday's trading after declining as much as 6.5% earlier, as J.P. Morgan analysts said European mining and steel companies could suffer as the Middle East conflict dampens the continent's growth outlook and threatens to push interest rates higher. As a result, J.P. Morgan's Dominic O'Kane downgraded ArcelorMittal ( MT ), Anglo American ( AAUKF ) ( NGLOY ), and Lundin Mining ( LUNMF ) to Underweight from Neutral, as well as Rio Tinto ( RIO ) and Antofagasta ( ANFGF ) to Neutral from Overweight. O'Kane said the Middle East war will cause similar consequences to those that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which triggered a ~40% fall for European Metals & Mining equities in 2022, adding that metal prices are disproportionately hurt by knocks to global growth, a risk he said is not properly reflected in the sector's stock prices. According to 'O'Kane, events in the Middle East introduce similar risks that are not adequately discounted into industrial metals prices that are mostly unchanged since the start of the conflict but are high beta expressions of global growth, and European mining and steel equities forecast another 10%-plus downside risk, despite the sector being MSCI Europe's weakest last week. O'Kane and his team said they are reversing their previously positive view on EMEA Mining & Steel and have turned negative, also introducing a downside scenario for copper and iron ore at $9,500/ton and $90/ton, respectively, as the new base case for 2026-27. More on ArcelorMittal and Lundin Mining ArcelorMittal: Outperformance Confirmed 2025, 2026E Is Coming (Rating Downgrade) Lundin Mining Q4 2025 Earnings Call Presentation Lundin Mining: A Long Transition From Solid Producer To A Generational Copper Firm
Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images AT&T Vs. TMUS Stocks: Previous Thesis And New Catalysts My last analysis on AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T ) was published on Jan 23 under the title of “AT&T Q4 Earnings Preview: Absurd Combination Of 4.7% Yield And 4.4x P/Cash Ratio.” The article served as a preview for T’s FQ4 earnings report (ER) and rated it as a buy. As for T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS ), m...
Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images AT&T Vs. TMUS Stocks: Previous Thesis And New Catalysts My last analysis on AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T ) was published on Jan 23 under the title of “AT&T Q4 Earnings Preview: Absurd Combination Of 4.7% Yield And 4.4x P/Cash Ratio.” The article served as a preview for T’s FQ4 earnings report (ER) and rated it as a buy. As for T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS ), my last analysis dates further back to July 11, 2025. That article was titled "T-Mobile Q2: High Volatility Points To An Option Play (Technical Analysis)” and rated the stock as a sell. Since then, the performance of both stocks has indeed shown a sizable divergence, as shown in the chart below. Seeking Alpha Besides the price changes, there have also been a few fundamental developments worth noting. In the remainder of this article, I will focus on the latest developments of their fiber business as updated in their FQ4 ERs released recently. My central thesis of this comparative analysis is to argue that AT&T's outperformance over TMUS is very likely to continue or even widen in 2026, judging by what I saw in their FQ4 updates. The top factors on my list that could keep catalyzing T’s outperformance include its disciplined approach to fiber expansion, stronger balance sheet and free cash flow to support further buildout, and also more attractive valuation, all detailed next. AT&T Vs. TMUS Stocks: Fiber In Focus Before diving in, let me first address a more general issue. Some readers may be wondering why, out of all their operating segments, I only wanted to focus on the fiber business in this article. My answer is quite simple. While other segments (notably wireless) are also major revenue contributors at this point for both businesses, fiber holds the most importance for their future growth because it holds a pivotal importance for them to transform their business model from a commodity-like provider into a high-margin connectivity ecosystem. Unlike wireless (which is app...
The Trump administration agreed to stop pursuing a breakup of Live Nation and Ticketmaster as part of a settlement that blindsided state attorneys general in the middle of a trial. Attorneys general from 27 states and the District of Columbia are continuing to pursue the case without the US government, at least for now. The US Department of Justice and most US states sued Live Nation and its Ticke...
The Trump administration agreed to stop pursuing a breakup of Live Nation and Ticketmaster as part of a settlement that blindsided state attorneys general in the middle of a trial. Attorneys general from 27 states and the District of Columbia are continuing to pursue the case without the US government, at least for now. The US Department of Justice and most US states sued Live Nation and its Ticketmaster subsidiary in 2024, during the Biden administration. The lawsuit alleged that Live Nation has a monopoly on "the delivery of nearly all live music in America today," and asked a federal court to order the divestiture of Ticketmaster. The case went to trial, and testimony began last week in US District Court for the Southern District of New York. But the US and Live Nation informed the court of a proposed settlement on March 8, taking state attorneys general by surprise. The judge presiding over the case reportedly said in court today that the way the settlement was announced "is absolutely unacceptable." Read full article Comments
adventtr UK-based prediction market, Smarkets, is planning to enter the U.S. market, having filed for a license with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The filing opens two parallel regulatory tracks: a federal route through the CFTC for its core exchange platform, and state-by-state sportsbook licensing for its SBK product, according to the statement released by Smarkets on Monday. Th...
adventtr UK-based prediction market, Smarkets, is planning to enter the U.S. market, having filed for a license with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The filing opens two parallel regulatory tracks: a federal route through the CFTC for its core exchange platform, and state-by-state sportsbook licensing for its SBK product, according to the statement released by Smarkets on Monday. The Susquehanna-backed trading giant said it is bringing a different model to America - one where prices are set by participants, not the house. Smarkets processes ~$3B in annual traded volume. "The U.S. market is currently in a race against time to figure out how to regulate the predictions market," said CEO Jason Trost. "We believe now is the time to enter the U.S. market and bring the learnings that have made us successful in the U.K., working with regulators, not around them." More on Prediction Market Cboe to introduce prediction markets framework beyond yes/no contracts Kalshi partners with Brazil's XP in initial international expansion - report
Friends and allies of the late Ayatollah, they were chosen to take on greater responsibilities in the high stakes planning of recent months which had included engaging in talks with Trump's envoys mediated by Qatar, and preparing for an all-out confrontation with the military and intelligence might of their greatest enemies.
Friends and allies of the late Ayatollah, they were chosen to take on greater responsibilities in the high stakes planning of recent months which had included engaging in talks with Trump's envoys mediated by Qatar, and preparing for an all-out confrontation with the military and intelligence might of their greatest enemies.
Key Points The R2's success is critical for Rivian to continue its vision to sell millions of vehicles. Rivian removed $7,200 in automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle in the fourth quarter. A smooth launch and continued cost reductions should enable the R2 to improve gross profitability. 10 stocks we like better than Rivian Automotive › While Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) and other full ele...
Key Points The R2's success is critical for Rivian to continue its vision to sell millions of vehicles. Rivian removed $7,200 in automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle in the fourth quarter. A smooth launch and continued cost reductions should enable the R2 to improve gross profitability. 10 stocks we like better than Rivian Automotive › While Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) and other full electric vehicle (EV) automakers initially received much hype, that has long since faded -- especially after a rough 2025 that included automotive tariffs and policy changes. That's left Rivian's stock stuck in the mud, with just a 5% gain in share price over the past three years. However, with the highly anticipated R2 getting ready to hit the roads, can Rivian disrupt the market and reward investors? Here are two big factors to consider. The stakes are high The hype behind Rivian's R2 is palpable, especially after investors and consumers waited through 2025 with no other Rivian vehicle launches. One hurdle facing Rivian's R2 is convincing mainstream buyers -- a target price of around $50,000 should get its foot in the door -- to choose a newer automotive brand over established companies that have built brands and consumer loyalty over the decades. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » There is potential for the R2 to disrupt the market and convince mainstream consumers, particularly early adopters, to try it, as Rivian has established itself as a competitive full-electric vehicle maker. It gives consumers who have stuck with Tesla a new option after the automaker slacked off on keeping its vehicle portfolio fresh and faced political troubles with its polarizing CEO, Elon Musk. On the flip side, if the R2 underperforms expectations, it could have massive implications for investors. "There is immen...
nathanphoto/iStock via Getty Images Curaleaf Holdings (OTCPK: CURLF ) (TSX: CURA:CA ) reported strong financial results for Q4-2025, including higher revenue and free cash flow. The company saw a large increase in international sales. During Q4, the company opened new retail shops in the US and launched new products domestically and internationally. It ended its hemp-derived THC operations in the ...
nathanphoto/iStock via Getty Images Curaleaf Holdings (OTCPK: CURLF ) (TSX: CURA:CA ) reported strong financial results for Q4-2025, including higher revenue and free cash flow. The company saw a large increase in international sales. During Q4, the company opened new retail shops in the US and launched new products domestically and internationally. It ended its hemp-derived THC operations in the US. The company is well-positioned for international growth and will benefit from the rescheduling of cannabis in the US. The company is undervalued, but the cannabis sector remains weak due to uncertainty. The stock price has increased 128% over the last year. It has increased 11% since I last covered the company on Seeking Alpha . I continue my rating of a Hold for the company. The cannabis sector rallied on Friday. AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF ( MSOS ), the US cannabis ETF, gained 7% over the day. There were rumors on social media that rescheduling might occur before April, since the Medicare CBD program goes into effect sometime in April. There were no official announcements to back up the speculation. The CBD program is dependent on rescheduling, and thus rumors emerged. The program will allow Medicare coverage of CBD products. It is uncertain whether the rally will continue this week. Operations and Synergies Curaleaf ended its cannabis operations in Missouri, so the company now operates in 15 US states. The company opened new shops in Maine and Florida, bringing its nationwide store count to 161. The company has 71 cannabis shops in Florida, representing its largest domestic footprint. The company also has shops in Massachusetts (4), Pennsylvania (18), Connecticut (4), New York (6), New Jersey (3), Maryland (4), Ohio (5), Illinois (10), North Dakota (4), Arizona (16), Utah (4), and Nevada (6). The company has processing facilities in Kentucky and licensed brands in Oregon. Besides retail cannabis shops, the company has 15 cultivation facilities and 6 cannabis b...
Thaishutter_2528/iStock via Getty Images AngloGold Ashanti: Time to "Buy" the Dip Data by YCharts AngloGold Ashanti ( AU ) stock just made an all-time high, hitting ~$129 in late February on the back of its record results, then pulled back to the $107–$113 range as part of a broader selloff in gold and gold miners ( GDX ). This recent pullback is a good opportunity for investors to finally start c...
Thaishutter_2528/iStock via Getty Images AngloGold Ashanti: Time to "Buy" the Dip Data by YCharts AngloGold Ashanti ( AU ) stock just made an all-time high, hitting ~$129 in late February on the back of its record results, then pulled back to the $107–$113 range as part of a broader selloff in gold and gold miners ( GDX ). This recent pullback is a good opportunity for investors to finally start considering building a new position. For some background, AngloGold is the fourth-largest gold producer in the world, generating $2.9 billion in annual free cash flow at a gold price averaging $3,468/oz in 2025 . I have been skeptical of AngloGold for years: the Africa-heavy portfolio, the messy history of capital allocation, the perpetual discount to North American peers like Agnico Eagle Mines ( AEM ). Those concerns and drawbacks are real and haven't really gone away. But the company that exists today has changed more than most investors give it credit for. I think that the Centamin acquisition , completed in November 2024, brought in one of the world's premier gold mines and added a great asset to a portfolio that badly needed it. The balance sheet is also the cleanest it has been in over a decade. And Arthur Gold , the company's Nevada development project, has a pre-feasibility study coming and could be one of its lowest-cost assets (and reduce its jurisdiction risk). The stock isn't a slam dunk and isn't trading at severely depressed levels. But I do think it's somewhat cheap relative to what the company delivered in 2025 and what it is building toward, as I argue below. 2025: The Numbers That Matter AngloGold Ashanti's results (AngloGold) The headline numbers are worth sitting with for a moment. Per the full-year 2025 earnings release : free cash flow of $2.9 billion, nearly triple the $956 million generated in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA of $6.3 billion, more than double. Headline earnings of $2.7 billion, up 186%. Of course, AngloGold was boosted by higher gold prices, as...
watch now VIDEO 2:07 02:07 Trump tells CBS the Iran war 'is very complete, pretty much' Closing Bell President Donald Trump on Monday told a CBS News reporter that the war against Iran could be over soon. "I think the war is very complete, pretty much," Trump said, according to Weijia Jiang, CBS's senior White House correspondent. "They have no navy, no communications, they've got no Air Force," T...
watch now VIDEO 2:07 02:07 Trump tells CBS the Iran war 'is very complete, pretty much' Closing Bell President Donald Trump on Monday told a CBS News reporter that the war against Iran could be over soon. "I think the war is very complete, pretty much," Trump said, according to Weijia Jiang, CBS's senior White House correspondent. "They have no navy, no communications, they've got no Air Force," Trump said, according to Jiang, who posted about her interview with the president on X. U.S. stock market indices rose on the heels of Jiang's tweet. Read more U.S.-Iran war news Oil eases after topping $110 as G7 considers emergency reserve release amid widening Middle East war Why China can withstand oil's surge past $100 more easily than other countries Trump says oil price surge is a 'small price to pay' for defeating Iran PRO: Oil price surge could boost these Chinese stocks, Goldman says Iran names Ayatollah Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, as new supreme leader: Media reports Energy prices will fall when Iran's ability to attack tankers ends: Wright Iran war could make affordability bigger issue in 2026 elections Trump says no deal with Iran to end war without 'unconditional surrender' How Iran and Venezuela strikes transform the Trump-Xi trade talks Global week ahead: Diplomacy in ruins as G7 meets on Iran China says 'thorough preparations' needed as Trump-Xi meeting hangs in the balance amid Iran war Will Iran war fallout end the bull market? When investors really need to worry Trump also said that the United States is "very far" ahead of his original estimate that the war could take four to five weeks to conclude, Jiang said. This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.
Key Points Thomas Lo sold 1,000 shares for a transaction value of ~$50,200 on Jan. 29, 2026. The sale represented 33.33% of Lo's direct holdings, reducing his stake from 3,000 to 2,000 shares. All shares were disposed from direct ownership; no indirect entities or derivative instruments were involved. Transaction size was at the upper end of Lo's historical trade range, reflecting both a sustained...
Key Points Thomas Lo sold 1,000 shares for a transaction value of ~$50,200 on Jan. 29, 2026. The sale represented 33.33% of Lo's direct holdings, reducing his stake from 3,000 to 2,000 shares. All shares were disposed from direct ownership; no indirect entities or derivative instruments were involved. Transaction size was at the upper end of Lo's historical trade range, reflecting both a sustained reduction cadence and limited remaining capacity. 10 stocks we like better than Cathay General Bancorp › Thomas M. Lo, Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer of Cathay General Bancorp (NASDAQ:CATY), executed an open-market sale of 1,000 shares for ~$50,200 on Jan. 29, 2026, reducing his direct holdings by one-third according to the SEC Form 4 filing. Transaction summary Metric Value Shares sold (direct) 1,000 Transaction value $50,231.50 Post-transaction shares (direct) 2,000 Post-transaction value (direct ownership) $101,380.00 Key questions How significant is this trade relative to Lo's historical selling activity? The sale matches the largest individual transaction size Lo has made, consistent with the upper range of his prior open-market dispositions over the last two years. The sale matches the largest individual transaction size Lo has made, consistent with the upper range of his prior open-market dispositions over the last two years. What portion of Lo's total holdings was impacted by this sale? This transaction reduced Lo's direct ownership by 33.33%, from 3,000 to 2,000 shares, marking a continued reduction following prior sales in October 2025 and May 2025. This transaction reduced Lo's direct ownership by 33.33%, from 3,000 to 2,000 shares, marking a continued reduction following prior sales in October 2025 and May 2025. Were any indirect holdings or derivative instruments involved in this transaction? No; all shares were sold from direct ownership with no participation from family trusts, LLCs, or option exercises. No; all shares were sold fr...
spawns Oil ( CL1:COM ) prices observed a historic swing on Monday, underscoring the extreme volatility gripping energy markets amid fast-changing developments tied to the escalating U.S.–Iran conflict. Crude initially surged in overnight and early pre-market trading, briefly climbing as high as $119.48 per barrel after closing Friday at $90.90. The spike represented a jump of more than 30% at the ...
spawns Oil ( CL1:COM ) prices observed a historic swing on Monday, underscoring the extreme volatility gripping energy markets amid fast-changing developments tied to the escalating U.S.–Iran conflict. Crude initially surged in overnight and early pre-market trading, briefly climbing as high as $119.48 per barrel after closing Friday at $90.90. The spike represented a jump of more than 30% at the session’s peak as traders reacted to fears of potential supply disruptions stemming from tensions across the Middle East. However, the rally quickly reversed course as the trading day progressed. By Monday afternoon, oil had slipped into negative territory for the session, falling as much as 10% and dropping below the $90 level. Prices were last hovering around $85.75 per barrel as investors rapidly unwound earlier bullish bets. The abrupt turnaround followed reports from CBS indicating that President Donald Trump suggested the conflict could end sooner than expected, easing some immediate concerns about a prolonged disruption to global energy supply. Despite the sharp pullback, market participants remain on edge as geopolitical uncertainty continues to ripple through the oil market. Traders are closely monitoring developments in the region, with any new headlines capable of triggering further price swings. Oil ETFs: ( USO ), ( UCO ), ( DBO ), ( OILK ), and ( USL ). Energy ETFs: ( XLE ), ( AMLP ), ( VDE ), ( XOP ), ( OIH ), and ( IXC ). More on markets Dividend stocks build momentum as Middle East tensions push oil above $100/bbl Turkey says NATO shot down second Iranian ballistic missile after airspace breach RBC Capital Markets holds S&P 500 target, says Iran conflict too early to shift view BTIG flags a warning sign in oil spike: WTI soars while energy stocks fail to confirm BTIG warns: A break below 6,700 could send S&P 500 toward 200-day moving average
wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images Introduction The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Fund ETF ( DEM ) has outperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2026, building on solid gains achieved in 2025. Indeed, as discussed in my prior coverage, should tariff fears prove to be overblown, the ETF's deep value valuations and robust emerging markets GDP growth prospects would allow it to outperform the lea...
wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images Introduction The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Fund ETF ( DEM ) has outperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2026, building on solid gains achieved in 2025. Indeed, as discussed in my prior coverage, should tariff fears prove to be overblown, the ETF's deep value valuations and robust emerging markets GDP growth prospects would allow it to outperform the leading U.S. benchmark. While valuations are not as attractive as when I last covered the ETF back in June 2025 and Saudi Arabia exposure presents a near-term risk, I remain bullish on DEM, confirming my previous Buy rating on the ETF. My bullish outlook is underpinned by: A very undemanding 10.78x trailing P/E multiple, less than half that of the S&P 500, albeit partially explained by DEM's elevated cyclical sector allocation. A well-covered 4.65% dividend achieved with a payout ratio of 0.57x even after accounting for the 0.63% expense ratio. Solid total return outlook of 14.15% thanks to significant benefits from retained earnings and economic expansion in emerging markets. Readers not familiar with DEM may find the ETF Overview section in my previous article insightful . The only change I would highlight is that DEM's allocation to Taiwan has grown, principally at the expense of Brazil, with Saudi Arabia also seeing a smaller DEM exposure compared with 2025. Valuation and Sector Allocation Looking at the WisdomTree website , we can see that DEM holdings currently trade at a trailing P/E of 10.78x (earnings yield of about 9.28%). This remains notably below the 26.9x multiple for the S&P 500 (earnings yield of about 3.72%). While DEM holdings are clearly not as cheap as they were last year (the P/E ratio stood at just 8.17x in June 2025), we see that current pricing still suggests that S&P 500 earnings would have to grow roughly 5.50% faster in perpetuity just to make up for higher starting valuations, something I see as quite unlikely. One explanation for the notably lower ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord , where you can hang out and talk with us and with other listeners 24/7. What Joe is thinking about today Will the oil price surge be inflationary or disinflationary? You’ve almost certainly seen this debate plenty already. The inflationary potential is obvious, because not only do people consume various petroleum products directly, but oil is also an input into all kinds of goods. But then on the flipside, higher oil prices dampen economic activity, which could be deflationary. I think this debate, frankly, isn’t all that interesting. It’s basically the same debate as last year with the tariffs, and it kind of misses the main story, which is that, all else equal, higher oil (like high tariffs) raises the cost of doing business all around the world. That’s clearly an economic negative, regardless of whether it shows up in terms of higher consumer prices or a recession with widespread layoffs. It’s a cliche at this point, but lowering rates isn’t going to get oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again. And neither will hiking rates. Much like with Covid, and much like with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we’re talking about economic conditions for which monetary policy can only do so much. And so, the inflation/deflation debate can only tell us so much. TBPN co-host John Coogan has a good piece out toda y titled “Why Is No One Talking About Oil?” and at first I thought he was being facetious, because from where I sit oil is all that anyone is talking about. But he makes the point that in AI-land, there may be a temptation to view oil...
Oil erased gains in after-settlement trading after President Donald Trump told CBS the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” The move came after crude earlier smashed through $100 a barrel amid a near halt to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate traded as low as $81.19 a barrel after earlier surging as much as 31% during the Asian trading session. By midday US trading ...
Oil erased gains in after-settlement trading after President Donald Trump told CBS the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” The move came after crude earlier smashed through $100 a barrel amid a near halt to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate traded as low as $81.19 a barrel after earlier surging as much as 31% during the Asian trading session. By midday US trading hours, futures had already given up most of those gains as several global leaders signaled a willingness to pursue creative solutions to blunt the supply shock.