JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images It’s been a wild ride since my last coverage of Micron . Micron shares initially dropped significantly by 23% only to come roaring back with an 87% gain in the wake of the tech-fueled rally we’ve all witnessed, a rally spurred on by perceptions of a cooling of tensions in the US-Israel-Iran conflict together with extremely bullish analyst revisions for e...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images It’s been a wild ride since my last coverage of Micron . Micron shares initially dropped significantly by 23% only to come roaring back with an 87% gain in the wake of the tech-fueled rally we’ve all witnessed, a rally spurred on by perceptions of a cooling of tensions in the US-Israel-Iran conflict together with extremely bullish analyst revisions for earnings expectations. This sort of extreme volatility is what Micron investors sign up for when they buy MU shares. With all this having taken place, I think it’s useful to assess the current balance of risk and reward for investors going forward. Contrary to the FOMO vibes and frenzy that seems to be surrounding MU at the moment, I think the downside clearly outweighs the upside at present, especially for investors with a longer-term time horizon. We can appreciate this by analyzing the most material near-term risks to the current rally, as well as by examining the major longer-term structural downside risks for investors going forward. Near-term Risks It seems to me that the two main drivers of the recent rally in equity markets (i.e., perception of an easing of tensions in the US-Israel-Iran Conflict as well as the massively bullish re-rating of earnings expectations by analysts) leave things on shaky footing in the near-term – i.e., over the summer and going into the fall. This shaky footing presents particularly concerning risk for Micron investors over this sort of time frame. No Visibility on the Strait of Hormuz Re-opening First, there’s the glaring fact that the Strait of Hormuz is not re-opened, even though a cursory glance at equity markets might leave one with the impression that it re-opened around March 31 st . The most common estimate that circulates out there is that the closure of the Strait is curtailing the globe’s access to something like 20% of daily oil supplies. If this continues (and what compelling indication is there that it won’t?), at some point,...
South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago heralded the fortitude of the rand and other emerging-market currencies amid the Iran war, and said this could reflect a wider souring on US assets. “The broad resilience of emerging market currencies may well be due to weakening global trust in the US dollar and the need of investors to diversify portfolios,” he told an audience in the Eastern ...
South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago heralded the fortitude of the rand and other emerging-market currencies amid the Iran war, and said this could reflect a wider souring on US assets. “The broad resilience of emerging market currencies may well be due to weakening global trust in the US dollar and the need of investors to diversify portfolios,” he told an audience in the Eastern Cape on Monday evening. “It is not that they are abandoning the dollar but nowadays no one wants to be all-in on the dollar either.” The rand, which had strengthened considerably before the conflict began on Feb. 28, has backed off to around the levels of late last year, even as oil-importing South Africa faces surging fuel prices. “The rand exchange rate has been surprisingly resilient so far,” Kganyago said. “It depreciated in March but then recovered to roughly pre-crisis levels. Many of our peers have had similar experiences.” The JPMorgan Emerging Market Currency Index has recovered since late March and is now almost back to pre-war levels. Investors have warmed to rand assets in recent months, reassured by growing confidence in the nation’s fiscal discipline, economic reforms and the central bank’s adoption of a 3% inflation target. Analysts at Moody’s Ratings, in a note published Tuesday, also point more broadly to durable improvements in public finances to explain how some large emerging market economies have been able to absorb external shocks. Not that the dollar’s dominance is under threat. International Monetary Fund data showed it accounting for around 57% of the world’s official foreign exchange reserves in the final quarter of 2025 versus under 2% for China’s yuan. Read More: South Africa’s Kganyago Keeps Options Open as CPI Risks Rise Still, Kganyago’s remarks touch on an undercurrent of criticism that US President Donald Trump’s actions since re-entering the White House will have lasting consequences for the dollar’s appeal. These include his trade tariffs,...
Gold investors chasing yield have a problem: bullion itself pays nothing. The Credit Suisse X-Links Gold Shares Covered Call ETN (NASDAQ:GLDI) was built to solve that, layering an options-selling strategy on top of gold exposure to manufacture monthly cash. The catch is structural, and with gold rallying hard, it has rarely mattered more than it ... UBS Gold ETN Trades Upside for Monthly Checks as...
Gold investors chasing yield have a problem: bullion itself pays nothing. The Credit Suisse X-Links Gold Shares Covered Call ETN (NASDAQ:GLDI) was built to solve that, layering an options-selling strategy on top of gold exposure to manufacture monthly cash. The catch is structural, and with gold rallying hard, it has rarely mattered more than it ... UBS Gold ETN Trades Upside for Monthly Checks as Bullion Surges
Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images In the months that followed my previous article , Toll Brother, Inc. ( TOL ) had seen extreme changes in the market environment. In February, it climbed up to its one-year high of $165, which initially justified my reiteration of buy rating. But as new challenges emerged, the market easily reacted, which led to its correction to $130. Even so, i...
Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images In the months that followed my previous article , Toll Brother, Inc. ( TOL ) had seen extreme changes in the market environment. In February, it climbed up to its one-year high of $165, which initially justified my reiteration of buy rating. But as new challenges emerged, the market easily reacted, which led to its correction to $130. Even so, its resilient business model and fundamentals still proved to be effective in giving positive influence in market perceptions. As you can see, it attempts to sustain its rebound and re-enter the $140-150 trading range. Valuation supports it as target prices warrant an upside. My only concern now is its technicals, which suggest extra caution in line with macroeconomic uncertainty. What Makes It A Buy 1. Valuation Is Exceptionally And Relatively Cheap. To reassess its valuation, I decided to update its Dividend Discount Model or DDM. The new annualized dividend is now $1.04 based on the most recent quarterly payout of $0.26. So, the dividend growth rate also increased to $12.73%. Meanwhile, I still set its risk premium at 6.0% to be consistent with my previous coverage and stay conservative relative to the market standard of just 5.0%. Lastly, its Beta is now 1.50, which means that it has become a bit less volatile than in my previous coverage. With all this information, my new TP or target price is $155.22, which shows that that TOL is still reasonable at this level. DDM (Author ) I also used price ratios. P/E shows that TOL trades at only 9.98x its EPS, which can be considered cheap. However, this is notably higher than the five-year average of 7.40x. If you use this to derive the fair value, the TP will only be $103.62. This can tell us that the stock price has increased faster than necessary. After all, it is already more than twice its value in 2021. P/E Ratio (Author) Now, one may argue that this is unfair since the ratio only shows how cheap or expensive it is relative...
Andrii Yalanskyi March Job Openings: 6.866M vs. 6.656M consensus and 6.922M prior (revised from 6.882M), according to data releases by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. Job openings rate: 4.1% vs. 4.2% in February. Quits rate: 2.0% vs. 1.9% prior. Developing… Check back for updates. More on the US Economy Ten-year inflation expectations at highest point since '23 Factory orders rebound in...
Andrii Yalanskyi March Job Openings: 6.866M vs. 6.656M consensus and 6.922M prior (revised from 6.882M), according to data releases by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. Job openings rate: 4.1% vs. 4.2% in February. Quits rate: 2.0% vs. 1.9% prior. Developing… Check back for updates. More on the US Economy Ten-year inflation expectations at highest point since '23 Factory orders rebound in March from February's anemic gain Q1 GDP: Top-Heavy, Bifurcated, And Concerning
China’s leading brokerages posted surging first-quarter profits fueled by a massive retail trading boom, yet their shares are tumbling as institutional investors dump the sector in favor of technology stocks. The disconnect between record earnings and sinking valuations highlights growing market skepticism over the sustainability of China’s debt-fueled equities rally amid looming regulatory fee cu...
China’s leading brokerages posted surging first-quarter profits fueled by a massive retail trading boom, yet their shares are tumbling as institutional investors dump the sector in favor of technology stocks. The disconnect between record earnings and sinking valuations highlights growing market skepticism over the sustainability of China’s debt-fueled equities rally amid looming regulatory fee cuts.
The Department of Homeland Security tried to obtain a Canadian man’s location information, activity logs, and other identifying information from Google after he criticized the Trump administration online following the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis early this year. Lawyers for the man, who has not been named, are alarmed in part because they say...
The Department of Homeland Security tried to obtain a Canadian man’s location information, activity logs, and other identifying information from Google after he criticized the Trump administration online following the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis early this year. Lawyers for the man, who has not been named, are alarmed in part because they say that the man has not entered the United States in more than a decade. “I don’t know what the government knows about our client’s residence, but it’s clear that the government isn’t stopping to find out,” says Michael Perloff, a senior staff attorney at the American Civil Liberties Union of the District of Columbia who is representing the man in a lawsuit against Markwayne Mullin, the secretary of DHS, over the summons. The lawsuit alleges that DHS violated the customs law that gives the agency the power to request records from businesses and other parties. Perloff argues that the government is using the fact that big tech companies are based in the US to request information it would not otherwise be able to get. “It’s using that geographic fact to get information that otherwise would be totally outside of its jurisdiction,” he says. “I mean, we’re talking about the physical movements of a person who lives in Canada.” Read full article Comments
The Strait of Hormuz remained largely empty, with no new commercial ship crossings recorded despite a US effort to guide vessels through the waterway. Maersk confirmed that its vessel Alliance Fairfax transited the strait on Monday under US military protection, but Tuesday saw zero traffic following a day of violence that included attacks on vessels and missile strikes targeting the United Arab Em...
The Strait of Hormuz remained largely empty, with no new commercial ship crossings recorded despite a US effort to guide vessels through the waterway. Maersk confirmed that its vessel Alliance Fairfax transited the strait on Monday under US military protection, but Tuesday saw zero traffic following a day of violence that included attacks on vessels and missile strikes targeting the United Arab Emirates. Washington maintained that a safe passage exists, with press reports noting the presence of two US destroyers to the Gulf, but the heightened tensions kept commercial shipping at bay. While the fragile ceasefire held, hundreds of vessels were seen clustering near Dubai, avoiding the strait amid Iran’s efforts to expand its zone of control. On Monday, two US vessels , one of them a vehicle carrier, moved out of the Persian Gulf under military escort while keeping their tracking signals off. Visible outbound activity during the same period was limited to an Iran-linked liquefied petroleum gas carrier, a small feeder containership, and a tiny regional cargo ship. Ships transiting Hormuz with active AIS signals over the past day were confined to the narrow northern lane approved by Tehran. Also, widespread AIS spoofing has further clouded the picture, making independent verification of ship traffic increasingly difficult. Most of the recent Iran-linked departures have stalled in the Gulf of Oman. It remains unclear whether these vessels are following regional trading patterns or are being held up by a US naval blockade positioned further east. Only one containership was seen entering the Persian Gulf on Monday before the flare-up in regional hostilities. The US presence may also be distorting the traffic picture. Iran-linked vessels entering or leaving the Gulf could be switching off AIS signals to avoid detection, making it harder to track flows in real time. As a result, transit counts may later be revised upward when ships reappear further from high-risk waters. Even...
US new-home sales rose in March from a month earlier as the median selling price slid to a more than four-year low and builders offered incentives. New single-family home sales increased 7.4% from February to an annualized 682,000 pace, according to government figures out Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 652,000 pace. The report also included a first read ...
US new-home sales rose in March from a month earlier as the median selling price slid to a more than four-year low and builders offered incentives. New single-family home sales increased 7.4% from February to an annualized 682,000 pace, according to government figures out Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 652,000 pace. The report also included a first read on February sales after figures were delayed by the federal government shutdown late last year. The pickup in sales suggests a gradual improvement in affordability since the middle of last year is slowly generating more demand. Homebuilders, who have been using a combination of incentives and price cuts, saw a pickup in prospective-buyer traffic in March after severe winter weather limited buyer demand early this year. At the same time, mortgage rates have climbed from a recent low at the end of February, which could hamper homebuying activity in the coming months. The government’s report showed the median sales price of a new home decreased 6.2% in March from a year earlier to $387,400 — the lowest since July 2021. The number of new homes for sale fell from a year ago to 481,000. By region, sales in the South, the nation’s biggest home-selling region, increased 11.1%, while purchases in the Northeast rebounded sharply. March contract signings fell in the Midwest and West. Housing construction, which has subtracted from economic growth in each of the last five quarters, risks staying limited in the months ahead as builders focus on reducing inventory. Housing affordability is shaping up to be a key issue in the midterm elections in November, and both parties are proposing initiatives to improve the supply of housing and lower the costs for home buyers. Read More: Homebuyers Are Sitting Out the Key Season for Real Estate Deals Separate data out last month showed pending sales of previously owned US homes climbed for a second month in March as a pickup in inventory helped mit...
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is included among the 10 Best Blue Chip Stocks to Invest in According to Billionaires. On May 1, Baird analyst William Power raised the firm’s price recommendation on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) to $310 from $300. It reiterated an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model after quarterly results showed […]
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is included among the 10 Best Blue Chip Stocks to Invest in According to Billionaires. On May 1, Baird analyst William Power raised the firm’s price recommendation on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) to $310 from $300. It reiterated an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model after quarterly results showed […]
BellPhotography423/iStock via Getty Images A proposed pipeline to move Canadian crude into the United States is close to securing enough commitments from oil producers to move forward, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the discussions. The project, led by South Bow Corp ( SOBO ) ( SOBO:CA ) and U.S. partner Bridger Pipeline, would run from Alberta through Montana to Wyoming, po...
BellPhotography423/iStock via Getty Images A proposed pipeline to move Canadian crude into the United States is close to securing enough commitments from oil producers to move forward, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the discussions. The project, led by South Bow Corp ( SOBO ) ( SOBO:CA ) and U.S. partner Bridger Pipeline, would run from Alberta through Montana to Wyoming, potentially boosting Canada’s oil exports to the U.S. by more than 12%. It would also revive a portion of previously built infrastructure tied to the canceled Keystone XL project. Sources said shippers have already committed about 400,000 barrels per day, roughly 72% of the pipeline’s planned initial capacity. Developers are targeting around 450,000 bpd in long-term contracts, a level typically needed before construction can proceed. Major Canadian producers, including Cenovus Energy ( CVE ) ( CVE:CA ) and Canadian Natural Resources ( CNQ ), are among those backing the project, alongside several mid-sized firms. While companies declined to comment, industry executives signaled growing support as producers seek more capacity to move rising output. The pipeline gained momentum after U.S. President Donald Trump approved a cross-border permit last week. If built, it could eventually carry more than 1 million barrels a day, though further connections would be needed to reach major refining hubs. The push reflects a broader bottleneck in Canada’s oil sector, where limited pipeline capacity has constrained growth. Competing projects, including expansions by Enbridge and enhancements to the Trans Mountain system, are also underway to ease congestion and support increasing production through the decade. More on State Street® Energy Select Sector SPDR® ETF, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, etc. UAE Leaves OPEC: Here's What It Means For Oil Prices Energy Crisis Blows Softer In U.S.: AI Infrastructure Trade Appears Intact Canadian Natural Resources: Earnings Set To Reveal Massive Rewa...