Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord , where you can hang out and talk with us and with other listeners 24/7. Here’s what Tracy’s thinking about... Look, it’s always risky to cherry-pick data points that support just one particular conclusion in a heated debate. And right now, one of the heated debates du jour is the impact of higher oil prices on the economy. Will they spark higher inflation as costs are passed onto consumers, or a deflationary bust as growth slows? That said, reading through all my messages over the past week or so, it’s hard not to see a preponderance of economic data now firmly tilting towards the inflationary side of the equation. And bond markets are clearly taking notice. This morning the yield on the UK’s 30-year gilt hit the highest level since 1998 on rising expectations that the Bank of England will need to hike: Over in South Korea, Ryoo Sang-dai, deputy governor of the central bank, said it’s time to consider raising rates: Meanwhile in the US, the two-year Treasury yield has been testing 4%: But I think it’s the Reserve Bank of Australia that best captured the shift in mood, after hiking rates (as expected) overnight and basically reversing the whole cutting cycle it started in late 2024. “We feel we’re now in a position where we’ve got space, to be alert now to both sides of the risks to inflation - upside and downside,” said RBA Michele Governor. Clearly something in the macro mood is shifting, with a big chunk of the bond market increasingly focused on the inflationary impulse of higher oil prices as opposed to the drag on growth. What J...
‘Least affordable’ areas mainly in London commuter belt, UK Finance finds, with Iran war not yet reflected in data Business live – latest updates UK homebuyers are facing the worst mortgage affordability pressures for almost two decades, although the “pain” is not being felt equally across the country, according to industry data. The banking body UK Finance said that at a nationwide level, initial...
‘Least affordable’ areas mainly in London commuter belt, UK Finance finds, with Iran war not yet reflected in data Business live – latest updates UK homebuyers are facing the worst mortgage affordability pressures for almost two decades, although the “pain” is not being felt equally across the country, according to industry data. The banking body UK Finance said that at a nationwide level, initial mortgage repayments were typically swallowing up more than a fifth (21.3%) of a homebuyer’s gross income – the highest level since 2008. Continue reading...
Tesla CEO Elon Musk hopes that FSD will advance to unsupervised autonomous driving by the end of the year. Achieving that would be a catalyst for Tesla stock, demonstrating that widespread use of truly self-driving cars is just around the corner. Musk missed the deadline by 11 days, potentially costing former Twitter holders money.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk hopes that FSD will advance to unsupervised autonomous driving by the end of the year. Achieving that would be a catalyst for Tesla stock, demonstrating that widespread use of truly self-driving cars is just around the corner. Musk missed the deadline by 11 days, potentially costing former Twitter holders money.
Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of Palantir Technologies ( PLTR ) fell 6% on Tuesday despite beating on earnings and guidance. While the company posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.33 and revenue growth of 85% Y/Y to $1.63B, the miss in U.S. commercial sales ($595M) weighed on sentiment, even as government revenue ($687M) topped estimates of $610.5M. Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Sing...
Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of Palantir Technologies ( PLTR ) fell 6% on Tuesday despite beating on earnings and guidance. While the company posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.33 and revenue growth of 85% Y/Y to $1.63B, the miss in U.S. commercial sales ($595M) weighed on sentiment, even as government revenue ($687M) topped estimates of $610.5M. Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh remained bullish on Palantir Technologies, calling the company’s growth and profitability “best in class,” even as the stock reaction remained muted. “Despite impressive top-line and bottom-line results and upward forward estimate revisions, shares remain relatively flat in the after-hours market,” Singh said. “This suggests expectations are already elevated, and valuation may not appear compelling, with the stock trading at ~34x CY27 sales and ~56x CY27 free cash flow, with peak growth likely approaching or already reached.” Against this backdrop, here’s a look at ETFs with the highest exposure to PLTR: 82 ETFs have Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A within their top 15 holdings, according to data from ETFDb. GraniteShares 2x Long PLTR Daily ETF ( PTIR ): 66.09% weighting Roundhill PLTR WeeklyPay ETF ( PLTW ): 19.99% Direxion Daily PLTR Bull 2X ETF ( PLTU ): 18.49% iShares U.S. Tech Independence Focused ETF ( IETC ): 9.84% First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF ( MISL ): 9.62% U.S. Defense ETF ( DUTY ): 9.13% iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF ( IGV ): 7.98% REX AI Equity Premium Income ETF ( AIPI ): 7.77% Founders 100 ETF ( FFF ): 6.99% Global X Defense Tech ETF ( SHLD ): 6.49% Founder-Led ETF ( FDRS ): 6.35% Truth Social American Security & Defense ETF ( TSSD ): 6.18% REX FANG & Innovation Equity Premium Income ETF ( FEPI ): 5.92% SoFi Agentic AI ETF ( AGIQ ): 5.91% WisdomTree Global Defense Fund ( WDGF ): 5.10% Takeaway: The heaviest exposure remains concentrated in leveraged and thematic PLTR-focused ETFs, while broader AI, defense, and software funds carry...
Job Openings Drop But More Than Offset By Record Surge In Hiring Two months ago, the BLS reported that January job openings unexpectedly soared by 400K, the biggest increase since November 2024, to 6.946MM, the highest since last October. Then, one month later it turned out the jump was even higher than that when the BLS published the February JOLTS print, when we learned that the January job prin...
Job Openings Drop But More Than Offset By Record Surge In Hiring Two months ago, the BLS reported that January job openings unexpectedly soared by 400K, the biggest increase since November 2024, to 6.946MM, the highest since last October. Then, one month later it turned out the jump was even higher than that when the BLS published the February JOLTS print, when we learned that the January job print was revised massively higher by another 300K to 7.240MM from 6.946MM, a surge of 690K and the biggest since 2022; February job openings however promptly tumbled back to 6.882MM, or just shy of the 6.890MM estimate. Fast forward to today when we just got the latest, March, job openings print which saw another modest drop, sliding from the upward revised February print of 6.922MM to 6.866MM, or practically in line with estimates of 6.850MM. According to the BLS, the number of job openings plunged in professional and business services (-318,000) but increased in finance and insurance (+98,000). There were also increases in Private Education and Health services, Construction and Manufacturing jobs, offset by a modest drop in Leisure and Hospitality. Meanwhile, the slid in government and federal job openings continues. The modest drop in March job openings, coupled with the bigger drop in unemployed workers means that there were 373K fewer job openings than unemployed workers in March, an improvement from the 649K in February. It also means that after rising back to 1.0x in January, in March the ratio of job openings to unemployed dropped back to 0.9x where it has generally been since last summer. But while the job openings number was largely in line with expectations, recent revision gimmicks notwithstanding, the real surprise in this month's print was the number of Quits and Hires, both of which surged from 6 year lows. The number of hires soared to 5.554 million (+655,000) and the rate increased to 3.5% in March, more than offsetting decreases in those measures the previous...
(RTTNews) - New home sales in the U.S. saw a substantial increase in the month of March, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday.
(RTTNews) - New home sales in the U.S. saw a substantial increase in the month of March, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday.
Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola have bought into Luis Enrique’s vision By Get French Football News Ousmane Dembélé grins when he says that, if he does not press, he will be benched by Luis Enrique. The Ballon d’Or winner does not do his defensive work under duress. Like the rest of his teammates, he seems to derive enjoyment from a part of the game that was ...
Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola have bought into Luis Enrique’s vision By Get French Football News Ousmane Dembélé grins when he says that, if he does not press, he will be benched by Luis Enrique. The Ballon d’Or winner does not do his defensive work under duress. Like the rest of his teammates, he seems to derive enjoyment from a part of the game that was once seen as unnatural. Attackers would attack and defenders would defend; simple rules for a simple game. But demands have changed. The forward line of Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi and Neymar was a mouthwatering prospect but they failed to take Paris Saint-Germain close to a Champions League title and there was a lack of joy in their work . All attack and no defend made PSG a dull watch. There was a lesson in their failure: that football had changed and matches could not be won by the sheer weight of their attacking talent. Continue reading...
aluxum/E+ via Getty Images I rated CNA Financial ( CNA ) a Buy two years ago . It's worth a follow-up. What better time than right after earnings ? The marker sure had a big reaction. CNA 5D Price History (Seeking Alpha) I want to talk about why this happened. First, though, let's talk about why I liked it. The reasons I liked CNA were simple. It's a diversified P&C insurance play. It's easily pro...
aluxum/E+ via Getty Images I rated CNA Financial ( CNA ) a Buy two years ago . It's worth a follow-up. What better time than right after earnings ? The marker sure had a big reaction. CNA 5D Price History (Seeking Alpha) I want to talk about why this happened. First, though, let's talk about why I liked it. The reasons I liked CNA were simple. It's a diversified P&C insurance play. It's easily profitable. It's a steady grower. With insurance, I find that steady growth and a good balance sheet are about all you need. Income Statement (2025 Form 10-K) Their specialty and commercial lines make underwriting profits. This means CNA's profitable just from the insurance. Investment income is icing on top of that. This is seasonal, though. Not every company can say this. Q1 Combined Ratio The first quarter is a good example. The combined ratio was over 100%. Claims often cluster up in quarters, particularly weather-related ones. That's what happened here. In P&C insurance, there are always quarters like this. Income Statement (Q1 2026 Form 10-Q) That didn't stop Q1 from growing a little, though. Some insurers have to start cutting business when claims tick up. CNA didn't. Retention Rates (Q1 Earnings Presentation) In fact, I think the lines are good at keeping business. Management boasts high levels of retention. This helped it maintain a profitable Q1, even though it was a bit tougher. Q1 Earnings Release So CNA isn't a disaster. Still I see weakness. Some things limit growth. Management's remarks explained some. They talked about higher social inflation. That's not good for an insurer. What concerned me most wasn't that. It's competition. Management said it was very high right now. Kind of a double whammy, if you ask me. And they underwrite a lot of long-tail things, like worker's comp and life. They're tied into benefits. It's tough to tweak on the fly. It's hard for earnings to grow faster than slow. When I wrote last time, I thought they had good pricing power. This se...
First Merchants ( FRME ) is projected to announce a dividend increase in May, continuing its 14-year streak of continuous dividend growth based on historical patterns. Analysts expect a consensus annual dividend of $1.47 per share, implying a quarterly dividend of approximately $0.37, which would represent a 2.78% increase from the prior payout of $0.36. The company last declared a dividend of $0....
First Merchants ( FRME ) is projected to announce a dividend increase in May, continuing its 14-year streak of continuous dividend growth based on historical patterns. Analysts expect a consensus annual dividend of $1.47 per share, implying a quarterly dividend of approximately $0.37, which would represent a 2.78% increase from the prior payout of $0.36. The company last declared a dividend of $0.36 per share in February 2026, representing an annual yield of 3.60%, and raised its dividend last May by 2.86% to $0.36 from $0.35. The company has delivered a 5-year dividend growth rate of approximately 6.72% and maintains an annual payout ratio of 36.18%. As per the SA scorecard, the regional banking company holds ratings of D for safety, C- for growth, B for yield, and A for dividend consistency. First Merchants ( FRME ) is projected to report its second-quarter 2026 financial results around late July 2026, based on its typical reporting schedule. More on First Merchants First Merchants Corporation 2026 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation First Merchants Corporation (FRME) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript First Merchants expects mid-single-digit 2026 loan growth while targeting $111M-$114M quarterly expenses after First Savings integration Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on First Merchants Historical earnings data for First Merchants
OpenAI's first hardware product might be a phone instead of a mysterious Jony Ive gadget . As reported by MacRumors , supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo shared details about the rumored phone, claiming OpenAI is "fast-tracking" it and aiming to start mass production in early 2027. According to Kuo, the phone will run on a "customized version of the [MediaTek] Dimensity 9600," which is expected to l...
OpenAI's first hardware product might be a phone instead of a mysterious Jony Ive gadget . As reported by MacRumors , supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo shared details about the rumored phone, claiming OpenAI is "fast-tracking" it and aiming to start mass production in early 2027. According to Kuo, the phone will run on a "customized version of the [MediaTek] Dimensity 9600," which is expected to launch this fall and follow up the Dimensity 9500 currently powering phones like the Vivo X300 Pro and the Oppo Find X9 Pro . The custom chip's "headline spec" will be its image signal processor (ISP), which will have "enhanced HDR" that Kuo says wi … Read the full story at The Verge.
Thitima Uthaiburom/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Summary Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) has been one of the clearest winners of the AI trade, benefiting from its position at the memory bottleneck. In my last article, I argued that Micron could be the "new Intel” ( INTC ). This is a company sitting at the heart of a structural constraint with pricing power and long-term visibility. That thesis sti...
Thitima Uthaiburom/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Summary Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) has been one of the clearest winners of the AI trade, benefiting from its position at the memory bottleneck. In my last article, I argued that Micron could be the "new Intel” ( INTC ). This is a company sitting at the heart of a structural constraint with pricing power and long-term visibility. That thesis still holds today, but as prices keep running and supply and demand reach an equilibrium, returns may eventually fade. The real risk here is that the conditions that made Micron a no-brainer slowly begin to fade. In this article, I outline three scenarios where I would start reducing or exiting my position in Micro. This includes model efficiency reducing memory intensity, demand proving weaker than it looks, and pricing power breaking down. Lastly, I also highlight a fourth risk that doesn't fit neatly into any of those buckets but may in fact be the most underappreciated risk of all. Why Micron Worked Let's briefly recap the story so far. As GPUs became more powerful, models became larger, and memory became the limiting factor. Arguably, memory demand scaled even faster than GPU demand. Micron was one of the few companies capable of supplying that memory at scale, creating a rare combination of structural demand growth, constrained supply, and pricing power. An important part of this narrative is also the oligopolistic nature of the high bandwidth memory, or HBM, market and the discipline that these companies have had so far in terms of keeping a lid on supply. But this won’t last forever, and there are various ways in which the micron story breaks down. Model Efficiency Reduces Memory Intensity The biggest long-term risk to Micron is not competition but technological progress. AI models today are extremely memory-intensive. But that is a function of current architectures and perhaps not a permanent reality. Model compression techniques are improving, and smaller, more effic...
Thitima Uthaiburom/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Summary Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) has been one of the clearest winners of the AI trade, benefiting from its position at the memory bottleneck. In my last article, I argued that Micron could be the "new Intel” ( INTC ). This is a company sitting at the heart of a structural constraint with pricing power and long-term visibility. That thesis sti...
Thitima Uthaiburom/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Summary Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) has been one of the clearest winners of the AI trade, benefiting from its position at the memory bottleneck. In my last article, I argued that Micron could be the "new Intel” ( INTC ). This is a company sitting at the heart of a structural constraint with pricing power and long-term visibility. That thesis still holds today, but as prices keep running and supply and demand reach an equilibrium, returns may eventually fade. The real risk here is that the conditions that made Micron a no-brainer slowly begin to fade. In this article, I outline three scenarios where I would start reducing or exiting my position in Micro. This includes model efficiency reducing memory intensity, demand proving weaker than it looks, and pricing power breaking down. Lastly, I also highlight a fourth risk that doesn't fit neatly into any of those buckets but may in fact be the most underappreciated risk of all. Why Micron Worked Let's briefly recap the story so far. As GPUs became more powerful, models became larger, and memory became the limiting factor. Arguably, memory demand scaled even faster than GPU demand. Micron was one of the few companies capable of supplying that memory at scale, creating a rare combination of structural demand growth, constrained supply, and pricing power. An important part of this narrative is also the oligopolistic nature of the high bandwidth memory, or HBM, market and the discipline that these companies have had so far in terms of keeping a lid on supply. But this won’t last forever, and there are various ways in which the micron story breaks down. Model Efficiency Reduces Memory Intensity The biggest long-term risk to Micron is not competition but technological progress. AI models today are extremely memory-intensive. But that is a function of current architectures and perhaps not a permanent reality. Model compression techniques are improving, and smaller, more effic...