The February nonfarm payroll report came in way below expectations. The economy lost 92,000 jobs, although the overall unemployment rate remained at a low 4.4%. Perhaps just as importantly, the January number was revised lower by 4,000 jobs, and December's was revised down by a whopping 65,000 jobs. That brings the total number of jobs created over the last 12 months to just 156,000. To put that i...
The February nonfarm payroll report came in way below expectations. The economy lost 92,000 jobs, although the overall unemployment rate remained at a low 4.4%. Perhaps just as importantly, the January number was revised lower by 4,000 jobs, and December's was revised down by a whopping 65,000 jobs. That brings the total number of jobs created over the last 12 months to just 156,000. To put that into context, the economy was frequently creating that many jobs in a single month as recently as 2023: Month Nonfarm Payroll Monthly Job Change March 2025 +67,000 April 2025 +108,000 May 2025 +13,000 June 2025 -20,000 July 2025 +64,000 August 2025 -70,000 September 2025 +76,000 October 2025 -140,000 November 2025 +41,000 December 2025 -17,000 January 2026 +126,000 February 2026 -92,000 Total +156,000 Stagnant job growth is one of the biggest red flags in the economy. It suggests that perhaps companies don't see growth ahead that warrants increasing head count. Companies could also be cutting costs to manage a particularly lean period. Whatever the reason, it's a fairly strong indication that growth is slowing, or companies think it could slow. That, of course, spills down to consumers. If workers are losing their jobs or believe they're at risk of losing their jobs, they tend to cut back on spending. Less income and spending translates to slower economic growth, higher default rates on debt, and a number of other consequences. It's easy to see how this could easily spiral into recession. And unfortunately, this pattern that we've seen over the past 12 months is rare -- and not in a good way. Nonfarm payroll growth has been negative in five of the previous nine months. Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began releasing this report back in 1939, this "5 in 9" stretch has happened only 13 times. When it happens, it tends to correlate highly with periods of economic stress, recession, and bear-market corrections of at least 20% in the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.21%). If you want eviden...