Kagenmi/iStock via Getty Images According to a global outlook report from BNP Paribas, the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict is expected to weigh on global growth and keep inflationary pressures elevated, even if hostilities ease in the near term. The bank warned that the disruption to energy supply chains and broader geopolitical uncertainty has already caused enough damage to leave ...
Kagenmi/iStock via Getty Images According to a global outlook report from BNP Paribas, the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict is expected to weigh on global growth and keep inflationary pressures elevated, even if hostilities ease in the near term. The bank warned that the disruption to energy supply chains and broader geopolitical uncertainty has already caused enough damage to leave a lasting mark on the world economy. BNP Paribas said it now expects “lower GDP growth, higher inflation and more hawkish central banks” than it projected at the beginning of the year, prompting the firm to revise both its growth and inflation forecasts. The report noted that the supply shock tied to the conflict has been “sufficiently extensive and durable to inflict damage on the global economy, even if hostilities were to cease tomorrow.” Despite the more cautious outlook, the bank stopped short of forecasting a global recession. Analysts pointed to strong economic momentum entering 2026, alongside continued investment tied to artificial intelligence and rising defense spending, as factors helping to cushion the slowdown. “Our bottom line is therefore that the war will dent rather than derail the resilience,” BNP Paribas stated, emphasizing that underlying structural drivers continue to support economic activity despite mounting geopolitical pressures. Market Tracking ETFs: ( DIA ), ( DDM ), ( DOG ), ( DXD ), ( SDOW ), ( SPY ), ( VOO ), ( IVV ), ( RSP ), ( SSO ), ( UPRO ), ( SH ), ( SDS ), ( SPXU ), ( QQQ ), ( QQQM ), ( TQQQ ), ( QID ), and ( SQQQ ). Fixed Income ETFs: ( TLT ), ( TLH ), ( IEF ), ( IEI ), ( SHY ), ( SGOV ), ( SCHO ), ( BIL ), ( AGG ), ( BND ), ( VCIT ), ( MUB ), ( MBB ), ( JNK ), ( LQD ), ( HYG ), ( VTIP ), ( TIP ), ( SCHP ), ( STIP ), ( TIPX ), ( SPIP ), ( WIP ), ( GTIP ), ( LQDI ), and ( RINF ). More on markets Yields slide as U.S.-Iran deal hopes spark an oil selloff and boost equities Strait of Hormuz reopening odds jump as U.S.-Iran deal talks advanc...